ponokanocker
Registered User
- Nov 17, 2009
- 3,835
- 6
Where do the Oilers finish this season?
- Thread starter Mc5RingsAndABeer
- Start date
Jimmi McJenkins
Sometimes miracles
If this were an 82 game season I'd say 13th but with a shortened season just about anything could happen. I think I'll abstain this time.
McJadeddog
Registered User
i said 10th... people are saying that we didn't add anything other than rookies, but we actually did
- whitney is apparently the healthiest he's been in 2 years
- hemsky is in the same boat and was doing *very* well in the czech league
- all the young players (which is really all the important players on the team) are one year older, one year stronger and one year more experienced
- people assume that the above point only includes RNH, hall and eberle, but they forget about guys like smid, petry, gagner and dubnyk
a more healthy whitney and hemsky are huge, and shouldn't be over-looked... we're talking about a 0.8 PPG career player in hemsky and a top-3, heavy minutes eater, in whitney... these are very important players that are apparently the healthiest they've been in a long time... we have to take whitney at his word, but hemsky's point production in europe shows that he is probably telling the truth in regards to his health
all that being said, i still don't think we make the playoffs... it's just too big of a jump from last year, and we're still way too young throughout the lineup... especially when you consider that we will have a raw rookie in our top-6 (yakupov) and in our top-4 (schultz)... sure, these guys are high-end talents, but they are rookies nonetheless and will make rookie mistakes
close but no cigar, barring one of the kids going supernova or dubnyk standing on his head all season
- whitney is apparently the healthiest he's been in 2 years
- hemsky is in the same boat and was doing *very* well in the czech league
- all the young players (which is really all the important players on the team) are one year older, one year stronger and one year more experienced
- people assume that the above point only includes RNH, hall and eberle, but they forget about guys like smid, petry, gagner and dubnyk
a more healthy whitney and hemsky are huge, and shouldn't be over-looked... we're talking about a 0.8 PPG career player in hemsky and a top-3, heavy minutes eater, in whitney... these are very important players that are apparently the healthiest they've been in a long time... we have to take whitney at his word, but hemsky's point production in europe shows that he is probably telling the truth in regards to his health
all that being said, i still don't think we make the playoffs... it's just too big of a jump from last year, and we're still way too young throughout the lineup... especially when you consider that we will have a raw rookie in our top-6 (yakupov) and in our top-4 (schultz)... sure, these guys are high-end talents, but they are rookies nonetheless and will make rookie mistakes
close but no cigar, barring one of the kids going supernova or dubnyk standing on his head all season
In solid 6th place and on a roll.Our PP will be top five again and our defense will be much different than last year,it will be producing points not giving them up.All we needed to bust over the wall was a legitimate rushing threat from the defense---who could have dreamed we would find a J.S??To good to be true.We will be able to generate excellent 5 on 5 scoreing using JS and and with the 2nd line bolstered by Yakupovs shooting and skill we will break a few teams down repeatedly this year.This is the key to making the playoffs in a shortened season,you need to be definitive--overwhelming--energetic and unstoppable,and use killer instinct to run up the scores when you are winning,impact is important in a halfseason and there is little recovery time with this schedule.This is a year when energy and passion in endless amounts can truly be a contributing factor to making the playoffs.Many teams go through phases as they work towards the playoffs and they build momentum slowly,this year its three quick strikes and you are out of there---the pressure will be jacked right up and many teams will not be prepared early on,this is when we need to run up the scores as high as possible,we need to stay bloodthirsty and create momentum ,we need to learn fast how to steamroll teams and live and die by that sword.Only when we commit 100% to offense will guys get bloodthirsty,we need to be indoctrinated into how champions view opponents,as meat for the dogs of war and nothing else.
I say a solid 6th place playoff spot.Those young talented legs will recover much faster in a compressed schedule and it WILL be the difference for a lot of teams.
Playoff positions will be defined very quickly and special teams will be critical the entire 48 games.Its time to stress a playoff mentality of strict discipline early on because we dont know how the refs will be calling things,keep the feet moving and head on a swivel for five games to let the refs send their message to the teams.This is not a year to be sending many messages to teams anywhere but the scoreboard--teams are jettisoning tough guys all over the place.This is going to be a sprint,and you better not be in the penalty box.
Bangers and crashers will not be needed until the playoffs as callups, a net presence but not bangers and crashers who draw ANY penaltys whatsoever.On ice reactions need to be simple,do not make yourself vulnerable to plays of the night and turn the other cheek--get retribution on the scoreboard.If there is a game with a bad tone then the reaction must be by commitee and teamwide and recognised and addressed by the coaching staff early enough to be controlled and dictated.
If we follow Rollys game plan and execute it as he dictates consistantly we will have a winning season,Kreuger is a very good coach with sound systems and tactics.Moma2 approves and likes his attention to detail and willingness to learn based on results driven analysis.Rollys system/Schultzes 5on5 contributions that change our entire teams identity/immediate consistant secondary scoreing ala 1a/1b first line capability a solid third line of vets and lots of young fast disciplined feet on the 4th line will take the Oilers to a solid 6th place and a first round date with San Jose where our revamped defense will turn stone cold shutdown ala mac.Ts assistance a direct opposite to what it will do to Chicago in the 2nd round when Mac.T backs off till St.Louis comes up ,by the time we hit St Louis we will be balanced and our styles and systems will match up perfectly for a dogfight.
#1 St Louis vs #8 Phoenix
#2 Detroit vs #7 Colorado
#3 San Jose vs#6 Edmonton
#4 Chicago vs #5 Minnesota
St. Louis vs Detroit
Edmonton vs Chicago
St Louis vs Edmonton
Edmonton
Teams out of the playoff picture.
-Nashville has monumental meltdownwith bad first 15 games and folds.
-Vancouver loses a Sedin early and with Luongo gone their tending collapses.
-LA suffers Stanley Cup hangover in record fashion and a special teams failure burys them by the 25 game- mark.
-Dallas is hit by injury bug and cannot keep a solid NHL lineup iced,to many callups to early and they falter by midseason.
-Columbus gets into penalty trouble early and a lack of discipline combined with tighter officiating burys them early on.
-Anaheim just cant get the scoring they need beyond one line,they ahng in in most games but are the epitome of the one goal curse in their losses all year long.
-Calgary has a locker-room meltdown as Iggys style finally wears thin and all the old guys cash it in early when the old legs get tired,Playoff spoilers are what the Flames will be to other teams but they are in full rebuild mode wether they see it or not.
Everybody needs a starting point for their dreams right?LA had help last year they wont get this year and Sutter wont win cloud watching like he did last year,Vancouver will see Luongo leave and his replacement cave,Nashville will be the meltdown of 2013.
I think the Oilers finish this season poised to represent the West in the Stanley Cup finals.
That is how I see a Happy 2013 when I put on my Oilervision glasses,ha ha ha ha.
I say a solid 6th place playoff spot.Those young talented legs will recover much faster in a compressed schedule and it WILL be the difference for a lot of teams.
Playoff positions will be defined very quickly and special teams will be critical the entire 48 games.Its time to stress a playoff mentality of strict discipline early on because we dont know how the refs will be calling things,keep the feet moving and head on a swivel for five games to let the refs send their message to the teams.This is not a year to be sending many messages to teams anywhere but the scoreboard--teams are jettisoning tough guys all over the place.This is going to be a sprint,and you better not be in the penalty box.
Bangers and crashers will not be needed until the playoffs as callups, a net presence but not bangers and crashers who draw ANY penaltys whatsoever.On ice reactions need to be simple,do not make yourself vulnerable to plays of the night and turn the other cheek--get retribution on the scoreboard.If there is a game with a bad tone then the reaction must be by commitee and teamwide and recognised and addressed by the coaching staff early enough to be controlled and dictated.
If we follow Rollys game plan and execute it as he dictates consistantly we will have a winning season,Kreuger is a very good coach with sound systems and tactics.Moma2 approves and likes his attention to detail and willingness to learn based on results driven analysis.Rollys system/Schultzes 5on5 contributions that change our entire teams identity/immediate consistant secondary scoreing ala 1a/1b first line capability a solid third line of vets and lots of young fast disciplined feet on the 4th line will take the Oilers to a solid 6th place and a first round date with San Jose where our revamped defense will turn stone cold shutdown ala mac.Ts assistance a direct opposite to what it will do to Chicago in the 2nd round when Mac.T backs off till St.Louis comes up ,by the time we hit St Louis we will be balanced and our styles and systems will match up perfectly for a dogfight.
#1 St Louis vs #8 Phoenix
#2 Detroit vs #7 Colorado
#3 San Jose vs#6 Edmonton
#4 Chicago vs #5 Minnesota
St. Louis vs Detroit
Edmonton vs Chicago
St Louis vs Edmonton
Edmonton
Teams out of the playoff picture.
-Nashville has monumental meltdownwith bad first 15 games and folds.
-Vancouver loses a Sedin early and with Luongo gone their tending collapses.
-LA suffers Stanley Cup hangover in record fashion and a special teams failure burys them by the 25 game- mark.
-Dallas is hit by injury bug and cannot keep a solid NHL lineup iced,to many callups to early and they falter by midseason.
-Columbus gets into penalty trouble early and a lack of discipline combined with tighter officiating burys them early on.
-Anaheim just cant get the scoring they need beyond one line,they ahng in in most games but are the epitome of the one goal curse in their losses all year long.
-Calgary has a locker-room meltdown as Iggys style finally wears thin and all the old guys cash it in early when the old legs get tired,Playoff spoilers are what the Flames will be to other teams but they are in full rebuild mode wether they see it or not.
Everybody needs a starting point for their dreams right?LA had help last year they wont get this year and Sutter wont win cloud watching like he did last year,Vancouver will see Luongo leave and his replacement cave,Nashville will be the meltdown of 2013.
I think the Oilers finish this season poised to represent the West in the Stanley Cup finals.
That is how I see a Happy 2013 when I put on my Oilervision glasses,ha ha ha ha.
Last edited by a moderator:
Blue And Orange
Oilers & Seahawks
ChadSC
SportingCharts
My biggest concern for the Oilers is its shot differential (per game):
2005 +4.23 (3rd)
2006 -3.00 (24th)
2007 -5.09 (29th)
2008 -4.45 (27th)
2009 -4.82 (29th)
2010 -4.99 (29th)
2011 -4.05 (29th)
Got to start winning the shot battle.
IV XIV XCI
Registered User
im predicting playoffs. 6th in the west.
if we have another dissappointing season i will be upset and face teh fact that i was wrong.
but for those who are overly skeptical and predicting a 14th/15th in west finish, will you be prepared to come in here in april/may and admit that you were overly negative and trying to dampen our spirits?
if we have another dissappointing season i will be upset and face teh fact that i was wrong.
but for those who are overly skeptical and predicting a 14th/15th in west finish, will you be prepared to come in here in april/may and admit that you were overly negative and trying to dampen our spirits?
nexttothemoon
and again...
I agree. The large majority of the teams that make the playoffs outshoot their opponents... and those that don't and still manage to make the playoffs usually have excellent goaltending (or above average accuracy among their shooters) to make up for it.
Spotting your opponents 4 shots per game over the course of 82 games is pretty much a recipe for failure. That's ~330 shots per year and if opponents score at about the league average of ~9% on those shots... that's about 30 or so goals you are giving up just based on that shot differential.
Look at the Oilers goals differential last year at -27... that's basically due entirely to that shot differential. They would have essentially been a .500 club and likely would have been close to knocking on the playoff door last year if they wouldn't have given up 330+ more shots than they had themselves.
The Oilers actually were a fairly accurate shooting club last season... 10th best in the NHL in shooting pct. They also weren't horrid in overall save percentage either... 20th best overall. Average those 2 together and you basically have what should have been a .500 club... except of course that they were regularly outshot badly.
They need to become a much better puck possession team (obviously).
I'm not sure how accurate the takeaway/giveaway stats are on NHL.com but the stats there show the Oilers had 375 more giveaways than takeaways last season. That's about 4.5 more giveaways per game they are spotting opponents. They also lost 209 more faceoffs than they won last season. That's about 2.5 more faceoffs per game their opponents have the advantage on.
Combine those 2 possession stats (giveaways and faceoffs) and it's not hard to see where those extra 330+ shots against are coming from. Sloppy puck carriers and ineffective faceoff men. Certainly not the whole story but a huge part of it.
Again their shooting accuracy is good... they just need to hold onto the puck more often to be able to put more rubber on opposing goalies. The goaltending wasn't horrendous either... but again... a tilted ice surface with too much rubber directed at your own net will almost always mean more losses than wins in the long run.
It's all obvious stuff but it's good to see the stats back up what we watched on the ice last season. I often thought they looked better than a 29th place team... and they were better than that when they actually had the puck but they were too sloppy and didn't have possession often enough and that's what killed them and made them a lotto team again.
I'm hoping for clear improvements this year. Can they become a .500 faceoff team again? Can they severely cut down on their giveaways in all zones? It remains to be seen and it's a HUGE task because they have to make a huge turnaround in those categories unless they markedly increase their shooting accuracy (possible) or their goalies have a Vezina type season(not likely).
Last edited:
Bryanbryoil
Pray For Ukraine
- Sep 13, 2004
- 86,197
- 34,656
before the end of the lockout I was fully expecting an 8th-12th pick and no playoffs. I'm not sure if it's blind optimism because I wasn't expecting a season or what the case maybe but I am thinking that this could well be a playoff team. We have a LOT of things going in our favor right now.
Bryanbryoil
Pray For Ukraine
- Sep 13, 2004
- 86,197
- 34,656
Not really, if our skill translates to more goals on less shots then we could see our team get outshot fairly regularly but still winning games. It's not how many chances you get, it's how many you bury.
Hoogaar23
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2011
- 1,588
- 20
Yeah - if you look at most of the objective metrics, we were middle of the pack or better in pretty much all of them except shots on goal. I had a long wall of text about it some time ago - looking at it superficially, it's really the only metric where we were one of the worst in the league.
Hoogaar23
Registered User
- Apr 13, 2011
- 1,588
- 20
Though it is possible to win by being outshot, outshooting your opponent seems to correlate to a lot more wins than the other way around.
Draiskull
Registered User
- Oct 26, 2005
- 23,344
- 2,192
The points are so close in a 82 game season.. It is impossible to predict the standings in a 48 game season... 2 points could seperate 5 teams by the time its all said an done.
I chose 3rd place for EDM because I think this team can beat out VAN.
I chose 3rd place for EDM because I think this team can beat out VAN.
Mc5RingsAndABeer
5-14-6-1
- May 25, 2011
- 20,184
- 1,385
Agreed. Especially when you have guys like RNH and Eberle (who have play styles that lend themselves to high SH% numbers) leading your offense.
9th place finish (17th overall) and the worst shot at the lottery.
Columbus takes 15th (30th overall)
The Edmonton Oilers somehow, someway, against all odds, win the lottery
With the first overall pick in the 2013 draft, the Edmonton Oilers are so proud to select: From the Portland Winterhawks, Seth Jones.
Anonymous hacks nhl.com with a picture of Tambellini grinning from ear to ear on top.
Howson takes his ball and goes home.
Columbus's second overall pick (Mackinnon) is injured for six months to start the 2013/2014 season.
The Oilers win the cup the following year.
Public outcry from the other owners calling for a change to limit the amount of first overall picks that can be selected in a row.
The CBA is again ammended with what will forever be known as the Oiler rule.
Columbus takes 15th (30th overall)
The Edmonton Oilers somehow, someway, against all odds, win the lottery
With the first overall pick in the 2013 draft, the Edmonton Oilers are so proud to select: From the Portland Winterhawks, Seth Jones.
Anonymous hacks nhl.com with a picture of Tambellini grinning from ear to ear on top.
Howson takes his ball and goes home.
Columbus's second overall pick (Mackinnon) is injured for six months to start the 2013/2014 season.
The Oilers win the cup the following year.
Public outcry from the other owners calling for a change to limit the amount of first overall picks that can be selected in a row.
The CBA is again ammended with what will forever be known as the Oiler rule.
nexttothemoon
and again...
I'm pretty sure the change that was made in this current CBA is already known informally as the Oiler rule. They should just have a little asterisk beside that paragraph in the CBA with a grinning Tambo beside it.
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