When can we start blaming scouting?

[IButtersI]

I agree that our drafting record beyond the 1st round isn't pretty. But I'm not sure if drafting is the problem or if it's player development.

This is more what I thought the conversation would turn to. Player development seems to be below average and has been for a while.

 

[Moose Coleman]

Why? I just explained it right before the bolded part. I don't understand how you didn't see that.

"Having the future thrown in your face" doesn't really change the fact that every team out there is facing the same set of probabilities when it comes to drafting.

Teams with deep rosters that can attract free agents and are competitors for the cup ever year won't need to rely as much on drafting as teams who are constantly tanking and trading for futures.

And?

There are alot of bits and pieces to something as complex as amateur scouting. I'm not gonna spell everything out before I make a thread. As a fan of this team for 25 years I am concerned about the drafting success. Apparently I'm not the only one.

The whole argument of other teams sucking is like saying its ok to fail miserably at your job becaus other people in your field arent doing well. I know there are very good young players in the league not drafted in the top 30 that would help us.

They might be out there, but not finding them doesn't mean there's something wrong with the scouting. That's just the odds.

If you want me to go online when I get home from work and take a look at all the non 1st rounders under 25 playing regularly I will. It's not hard to take a look and see that drafting should atleast be looked at for a team who has been rebuilding for this long

IIRC , MacGregor took over in 2008. so we've got a six year window here with maybe three of those years able to provide us with any data. I'll take a look at a few teams for comparison's sake and see if there's anything to it.

 

[Captain Catatomic]

I agree that our drafting record beyond the 1st round isn't pretty. But I'm not sure if drafting is the problem or if it's player development.

Me and my friend walked into a sapling nursey and I got there first and picked out the biggest nicest best quality saplings, and my friend took whatever was left. I took them home to my place which was cold damp and full of second hand smoke. ON top of that I had to move them around quite a bit and they never got the4 attention they deserved. Some died, some withered and some I had to give away where they went on to live better lives. I was left with nothing but an empty pot =(

Now my friends saplings well they are in his front yard as huge as can be. He watered them, gave them lotsa sunlight, nourishment and vitamins, and sang sweet songs of praise to them everyday growing up. They all grew up to be stronger than anyone could ever have expected.

I dont understand it. Did I pick the wrong saplings from the store?

 

[FireMacT]

Chicago

That was easy.

wait, what side of this argument are you on? Saad, Shaw, Kruger were all taken out of the first round in the past 5 years and are regulars on a very very very good team. Nordstrom, Pirri, Ben Smith. There are a few other that would crack the lineup if they weren't so deep

 

[Moose Coleman]

Sooooo I did a real quick look at a few teams' drafting between 2008 and 2011 to see how they stack up.

I chose Edmonton, Atlanta/WPG, New York Islanders, Columbus, Colorado, Tampa Bay and L.A. as they were teams that finished bottom five at least twice in that span. I recognize this is a pretty arbitrary criteria, but I wanted to focus on bad teams versus teams that had just one bad year. I looked at their drafting history from the first to the sixth rounds to see how they compared with 100 GP as the cut off for "NHLer" (again, arbitrary, but it's a rough study). How'd they stack up?

Edmonton had 5 first round picks in that span. Four have played at least 100 NHL games.

CBJ: 2/3
COL: 2/4
NYI: 2/6
ATL/WPG: 3/5
L.A: 2/4
TBL: 2/4

Second rounders?

EDM: 0/5
CBJ: 0/5
COL: 1/5
NYI: 1/5
ATL/WPG: 0/3
L.A: 2/4
TBL: 0/2

And here's where it gets interesting. Not one team has graduated a third or fourth round pick. Only New York and Columbus have pulled anything out of round five (one player each out of six picks each) and only one (NYI again) has grabbed anything out of round 6 (1/3).

Again this is all very rough, but it seems to generally indicate that Edmonton is no worse than other crappy teams at picking in late rounds and slightly better than most at picking first rounders (though two of those picks were first overalls and a third no longer is with the team). It would not surprise me if the same wouldn't hold true if you did the same analysis for every team in that span.

 

[FireMacT]

oh wait you were being sarcastic. Now I C

 

[Senor Catface]

wait, what side of this argument are you on? Saad, Shaw, Kruger were all taken out of the first round in the past 5 years and are regulars on a very very very good team. Nordstrom, Pirri, Ben Smith. There are a few other that would crack the lineup if they weren't so deep

What side am I on? There's sides?

 

[Mr McV]

When considering draft success, it should also be noted that the Oiler's roster is easier to crack than most teams, other than perhaps as a top 6 winger.

 

[IButtersI]

"Having the future thrown in your face" doesn't really change the fact that every team out there is facing the same set of probabilities when it comes to drafting.



And?







They might be out there, but not finding them doesn't mean there's something wrong with the scouting. That's just the odds.



IIRC , MacGregor took over in 2008. so we've got a six year window here with maybe three of those years able to provide us with any data. I'll take a look at a few teams for comparison's sake and see if there's anything to it.

It's not all on Macgregor IMO. It's the whole staff that has been awful for years. Wasn't Stu a top wester Canada scout for several years with EDMONTON? Who else is still here from the old craptastic regime?

Yes, other teams suck at drafting. Other teams also have 10 year rebuilds. I guess that's ok too.

If other teams get their ***** handed to them year in year out for 20 years, we aren't able to question anyone without writing a thesis and being prepared to immediately change the minds of the few who oppose the Thread with facts they have no intention of listening too.

Classic HF.

 

[IButtersI]

Sooooo I did a real quick look at a few teams' drafting between 2008 and 2011 to see how they stack up.

I chose Edmonton, Atlanta/WPG, New York Islanders, Columbus, Colorado, Tampa Bay and L.A. as they were teams that finished bottom five at least twice in that span. I recognize this is a pretty arbitrary criteria, but I wanted to focus on bad teams versus teams that had just one bad year. I looked at their drafting history from the first to the sixth rounds to see how they compared with 100 GP as the cut off for "NHLer" (again, arbitrary, but it's a rough study). How'd they stack up?

Edmonton had 5 first round picks in that span. Four have played at least 100 NHL games.

CBJ: 2/3
COL: 2/4
NYI: 2/6
ATL/WPG: 3/5
L.A: 2/4
TBL: 2/4

Second rounders?

EDM: 0/5
CBJ: 0/5
COL: 1/5
NYI: 1/5
ATL/WPG: 0/3
L.A: 2/4
TBL: 0/2

And here's where it gets interesting. Not one team has graduated a third or fourth round pick. Only New York and Columbus have pulled anything out of round five (one player each out of six picks each) and only one (NYI again) has grabbed anything out of round 6 (1/3).

Again this is all very rough, but it seems to generally indicate that Edmonton is no worse than other crappy teams at picking in late rounds and slightly better than most at picking first rounders (though two of those picks were first overalls and a third no longer is with the team). It would not surprise me if the same wouldn't hold true if you did the same analysis for every team in that span.

I could also go online and use random teams and rounds and years to try and make a point too! Asking for proof all day is making me laugh as your "proof" is the worst case of using selective statistics I've seen on this forum.

Even so, all you showed me is that they are tied with the awful blue jackets for the worst draft record. F anything, I thank you for helping me with that "proof" you are demanding.

 

[Halibut]

I'm not happy with the amateur scouting because they've gone so WHL heavy. I'd wish they looked more in the OHL and the Q but they've chosen to avoid those two areas for some reason.

I'm not necessarily concerned with who we've drafted and dont think that other teams have done a better job recently. I think we've done pretty good at the top end and the later rounds for the most part are too early to tell. A Pitlick, Hamilton, Moroz or Martindale could still turn into real players or any of the Russians we picked up last year.

 

[SeriousBusiness]

I don't mind our drafting record the last few years, but I was puzzled and disappointed that we didn't feel it necessary to draft a single goalie last summer. All those picks, and we couldn't pick one?

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

My only gripe is Moroz. But even he isn't totally worthless. MPS and Lander are only bad in hindsight.

Klefa should be destroying, by ALL accounts.

The goalie picks are struggling...as they do....

 

[Moose Coleman]

I could also go online and use random teams and rounds and years to try and make a point too! Asking for proof all day is making me laugh as your "proof" is the worst case of using selective statistics I've seen on this forum.

Something>nothing. You've offered absolutely nothing.

Even so, all you showed me is that they are tied with the awful blue jackets for the worst draft record. F anything, I thank you for helping me with that "proof" you are demanding.

Tied? All those teams have had about the same success rate in that time period. Meanwhile, allegedly great drafting teams like San Jose, Chicago, Boston, or Detroit have collectively graduated a grand total of three draft picks, which includes Tyler Seguin.

It's not all on Macgregor IMO. It's the whole staff that has been awful for years. Wasn't Stu a top wester Canada scout for several years with EDMONTON? Who else is still here from the old craptastic regime?

Yes, other teams suck at drafting. Other teams also have 10 year rebuilds. I guess that's ok too.

If other teams get their ***** handed to them year in year out for 20 years, we aren't able to question anyone without writing a thesis and being prepared to immediately change the minds of the few who oppose the Thread with facts they have no intention of listening too.

Classic HF.

Ah so you're just venting, maybe looking for some attention, and chose drafting as the subject despite not having any real clue about the draft situation or indeed, any real point at all? Carry on then.

 

[Senor Catface]

My only gripe is Moroz. But even he isn't totally worthless. MPS and Lander are only bad in hindsight.

Klefa should be destroying, by ALL accounts.

The goalie picks are struggling...as they do....

Moroz is doing pretty well this year. 9 goals in 10 games.

 

[IButtersI]

Something>nothing. You've offered absolutely nothing.



Tied? All those teams have had about the same success rate in that time period. Meanwhile, allegedly great drafting teams like San Jose, Chicago, Boston, or Detroit have collectively graduated a grand total of three draft picks, which includes Tyler Seguin.



Ah so you're just venting, maybe looking for some attention, and chose drafting as the subject despite not having any real clue about the draft situation or indeed, any real point at all? Carry on then.

It appears as tho my thread has ruined your day. I'm sorry if you demand that I explain the drafting situation of all 30 teams in order to change your mind. I'm not trying to change your mind. If you can't take a look at the depth chart and think our drafting hasn't let us down lately, that's your opinion and I respect that.

4:1 seem to agree with me and very few seem to have a problem with creating this thread. Just because you believe we should grade everything on a curb, doesn't mean this thread has no place.

Also, according to your hard nose reporting, in the 2nd rounds, of the teams and years you used, some teams have players they drafted who are NHL regulars. Oilers don't. How is that the same?

Your "proof" is beyond ridiculous and you misinterpreted your own obscure data.

The bottom line is that our drafting has been awful. It needs to get better.

 

[TylerSVT*]

I dont think the Oilers made a mistake drafting their 1st overalls. Hall was clearly better then Seguin, RNH was a logical choice, and Yak is a step above Murray (galchenyuk would have been a risk at #1 but its the only choice you can argue they made wrong).

If you want a real look at the Oilers drafting, go look at the past 4 cup winners, Chicago, LA, Boston and see how many players they took outside of the top 5 that played for their team. It's the sole reason they had winning teams.

Edmonton should really look at revamping their scouting department (they should really fire Lowe and company first)

 

[Master Lok]

.

The bottom line is that our drafting has been awful. It needs to get better.

Show how Oilers drafting has been worse than other teams drafting. Prove your point. Or are you just whining about Oiler losses and looking for attention?

 

[ponokanocker]

As much as you can throw the scouting department under the bus, you have to wonder if the management group went into drafts wanting to pick certain types of players rather than taking the BPA that their scouting department recommended. Still, I do wonder why they haven't been able to do a better job. Has the development phase been a problem as well? Too many variables to put all the blame on the scouts.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Show how Oilers drafting has been worse than other teams drafting. Prove your point. Or are you just whining about Oiler losses and looking for attention?

Doubling up on this!

Been saying this since the first page.

The lot of you have looked up the ghastly draftees that have taken place after Round 2 BY THE ENTIRE NHL, and seen there isn't much in the way of NHLers since 2008.

Cherry picking the 2-3 players that HAVE made an impact in the NHL as the standard we needed to be held up to.
Then start listing a bunch of people who haven't set foot in the nhl, and utility journeymen as your case.


:/




I agree with Lok. Prove your point or ****.

 

[thegreatgasby*]

habs are doing extremly well in term 2nd round and up draft pick since 2008

prolly 1 of the biggest steal of the last decade subban 43rd overall . also brendan gallagher 5th round

collberg is very close also to play in the nhl

 

[skorf]

1989
3rd round - Lidstrom
4th round - Federov
6th round - Dallas Drake
11th round - Konstontinov

1990
2nd round - Kozlov
7th round - Jason York

1991
3rd round - Ossgood
4th round - Mike Knuble

1992
2nd round - Darren McCarty
10th round - Dan McGillis

1993 sucked

1994
2nd round - Mathieu Dandenault
10th round - Tomas Holmstrom

1995-1997 sucked

1998
8th round - Datsuk

1999
7th round - Zetterberg

2000
2nd round - Tomas Kopecky

2001 sucked

2002
2nd round - Fleischmann
3rd round - Filppula
9th round - Jonathan Ericsson

2003
4th round - Kyle Quincey

2004 sucked

2005
2nd round - Abdelkader
5th round - Helm

2006
2nd round - Shawn Matthias (Not a great player but be played 260 games)

2007 hasn't shown us much so far.

2008

4th round - Nyquist -- He's looking good.

2009

Too early, but 2nd rounder Tatar is turning out OK.

Way too early to go any further.

But That's downright impressive.

-The Lidstrom, Federov, Zetteberg, and Datsyuk finds were amazing... no arguing that. But name an organization other than Detroit that has done that? And that was 12+ years ago, they had a lot better European scouting than ANYONE. I'd say our European scouting has improved lots lately (Belov for instance) and even Yakimov/Slepyshev


Also lets look at some of your other comments

1992
3rd round - I liked Kirk Maltby in Edmonton. Turned into an elite checking/energy line guy in Detroit.

I guess Mike Knuble, Dan McGillis, Tomas Kopecky, and Fleischmann were great Red Wing players too.... maybe you should have an * by these names... like you do with Satan, Maltby, and Vyborny.

-Poti sucking... maybe but he's just as good as guys like Quincey who you praise.

Compare years, I'd say
Detroit wins 89, 90, 91, 92, 94, 98, 99, 05, 06 ,08
Edmonton wins 93, 95, 96, 97, 00, 01, 03, 04
push 02, 07, 09

-Maybe the BEST team in the past 25 years at finding talent outside the first round beat us with a 10-8 margin.
-And if our scouting is so bad like you claim, we had changes in 2007... we won't know for another 5-6 years how good of a job they've done.

 

[Master Lok]

In an aside, the Oilers didn't draft him but they did find him and developed him for a year plus...

Mark Arcobello is looking pretty decent at the NHL level for a "freebie" UFA.

 

[thadd]

-Maybe the BEST team in the past 25 years at finding talent outside the first round beat us with a 10-8 margin.

When they beat us, they beat us by a large margin.

 

[I am the Liquor]

Doubling up on this!

Been saying this since the first page.

The lot of you have looked up the ghastly draftees that have taken place after Round 2 BY THE ENTIRE NHL, and seen there isn't much in the way of NHLers since 2008.

Cherry picking the 2-3 players that HAVE made an impact in the NHL as the standard we needed to be held up to.
Then start listing a bunch of people who haven't set foot in the nhl, and utility journeymen as your case.


:/




I agree with Lok. Prove your point or ****.

No playoffs for seven consecutive years. Soon to be eight.

Same crap scouts since 2000/05ish.

Same crap management since around that same time as well.

And youre asking people to "prove" that we suck worse than other teams?

Holy crap.