When can we start blaming scouting?

Discussion in 'Edmonton Oilers' started by IButtersI, Oct 16, 2013.

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  1. IButtersI

    IButtersI Registered User

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    Stu Macgregor has been at it for 7 years now and besides our first round picks the scouting has been abysmal.

    Our plethora of 2nd - 4th round picks are all projects at best. Except Marincin maybe.

    Going back to 2007 (not sure if he was hired before or after that draft) The oilers have not drafted 1 player outside of the first round who is a NHL regular. Omark and Hartikainen are as close as it comes.

    Since then we've had 5 different coaches.

    When will they upgrade or demolish this regime and try to improve one of the most important parts if building a team?
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2013
  2. thadd

    thadd Oil4Life

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    In 7 years we've made some bad choices for 1st rounders as well. I've never been impressed with our pro scouting either.
     
  3. Jimmi McJenkins

    Jimmi McJenkins Sometimes Miracles

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    When the goalies make a save. You can't evaluate anything until saves start to happen.
     
  4. Perfect_Drug

    Perfect_Drug Registered User

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    Before you start blaming Stu for amateur scouting, can you all please give a list of ALL the organizations that have done better than us in this department?

    Also, list all of the GLARING 'misses' that our organization needs to be held accountable for.

    Straight up; name the player we skipped on drafting, vs the player we drafted, and where 'said' player was projected to be drafted.
    (I Want to deter massively 'Off-The-Board' picks)


    I find it hilarious this thread pops up quite regularly, and the only names that come up are the 'pie-in-the-sky' players drafted in the latter rounds that make impacts... that EVERY team passed on multiple times.



    BTW, I know that nobody will do this, because straight up, our organization is on par with the rest of the league.
     
  5. IButtersI

    IButtersI Registered User

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  6. ales83fan

    ales83fan Registered User

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    I didn't want Musil, wanted Jenner - but family connection

    Didn't want Moroz.

    Used to think Lander was a good pick though.
     
  7. Hockey Buddha

    Hockey Buddha Darnell Nurse

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    I've quickly compiled the Oilers prospects who remain NHL hopefuls, and the numbers seem to match the percentage of success rates (if success means playing over 2.44 NHL seasons), which isn't exactly a high standard. I didn't include all of our prospects, just the ones that have fairly solid arrows. Obviously, I haven't included all of our prospects and may have missed some (ex. Musil), but this is just from a quick perusal of our players, selecting those who, in my opinion, have a reasonable shot at playing 2.44 NHL seasons or better.

    Round 2 - 28.6 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 2:

    Anton Lander 2
    Tyler Pitlick 2
    Martin Marincin 2
    Marc-Olivier Roy 2
    Mitchell Moroz 2


    Round 3 - 23.3 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 3:

    Daniil Zharkov 3
    Jujhar Khaira 3
    Travis Ewanyk 3
    Bogdan Yakimov 3

    Round 4 - 14.6 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 4:

    Dillon Simpson 4
    Erik Gustafsson 4
    Kyle Platzer 4

    Round 5 - 11.8 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 5:

    Olivier Roy 5
    Martin Gernat 5

    Round 6 - 11.8 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 6:

    Brandon Davidson 6

    Round 7 - 6.8 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 7:

    Gregory Chase 7


    Round 8 - 7.4 % play at least 200 games in the NHL
    Oiler hopefuls from round 8:

    None that I see.

    So, from what I can tell, I don't think that you can legitimately blame scouting. Some of these players will turn out and others, obviously won't.

    Here's a good link from Cullen about drafting:
    http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960
     
  8. IButtersI

    IButtersI Registered User

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    Wow that's an ugly list. I doubt 1/4 of those players even play 100 games.

    It remains to be seen but a rebuilding team with as much draft picks and roster openings as the oil have had recently should have something to show outside the top round.

    Our rebuild could be over if we drafted better.
     
  9. McDoused

    McDoused Registered User

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    Is this thread for real? Scouting is the furthest thing from being a problem.

    I'm not sure Seguin, Larsson, and Murray make us any better then Hall, RNH and Yakupov.

    Eberle and Petry were astute picks. Gagner was a decent pick as well.

    Our scouting has been great in the first round. Any time our picks didn't turn out (Paajarvi and Plante) they turned it into something (Perron and Marincin).
     
  10. Draiskull

    Draiskull Registered User

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    If you want to see how much a crap shoot later round drafting is.. just look at who the Oilers drafted and compare to the guys right after those picks..
    You will find a whole lot of nobodys.


    Would you feel better if we drafted S.Collberg or V.Pokka instead of Moroz?
    or instead of Khaira got Bozon or Pelech
     
  11. Hockey Buddha

    Hockey Buddha Darnell Nurse

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    In what ways is it ugly? You keep making blanket statements. Can you back some of it up?
     
  12. McDoused

    McDoused Registered User

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    Also, I don't think the great Detroit Red Wings have a single player on their roster that was drafted since 2008. That includes first round picks.
     
  13. Fixed to Ruin

    Fixed to Ruin Come wit it now!

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    Anything after the 3rd round is a crap shoot. So I won't jump all over the scouts for picks from rounds 4-7. However my beef with them is how bad they have been in the 2nd round of the draft.

    Here's a rundown since 2009 for 2nd rounders.

    2009:
    Edmonton picks Lander
    Lehner, Shore, Elliott and Orlov are all players I would rather have than Lander

    2010:
    Edmonton picks Pitlick, Marincin and Hamilton
    Justin Faulk, Smith-Pelley, Johan Larsson & Zucker are guys progressing better than everyone except Marincin.

    So since 2009 and 2010 we are tracking at a 25% rate picking in the top half of the second round.

    But wait there's more...

    2011:
    Edmonton picks Musil
    That big center we need and could be developing right now went to Columbus. Boone Jenner made the Blue Jackets this year. Jaskin is another player I like a lot and then there's Saad and Gibson that could be fairly useful to the Oilers right now. Some of us like Musil, others don't however he's projecting like a #5 or #6. I don't believe we should be drafting bottom pairing dmen in the top half of the draft.

    2012:
    Edmonton picks Moroz.
    Too early to tell on this one or the rest of the guys at this point so the jury is still out.

    Hindsight is 20/20 I know but in all those selections the only legitimate player we have right now is Marincin. That's pretty sad imo.
     
  14. MinnesotaFats

    MinnesotaFats Registered User

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    Let me first say that I love RNH. He is the best player on the team now and will be gonig forward. That said, HALL-LANDESKOG-GALCHENYUK makes us look like a much harder team to play against than HALL-RNH-YAKUPOV.

    As to the Eberle pick, I will, until my deathbed maintain that I am responsible for that pick. I saw Lowe and the rest of hockey ops on Laurier Ave here in Ottawa the night before the 2008 draft. They walked by me at a red light and I yelled, "You'd better ****ing take Eberle tomorrow". All me.
     
  15. McDoused

    McDoused Registered User

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    If the worst mistake we've made at the draft in the past 5 years is taking Musil over Jenner then I can live with that.

    Example: I'm sure Carolina would rather have Erik Karlsson over Zach Boychuck.
     
  16. IButtersI

    IButtersI Registered User

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    I didn't know Detroit was rebuilding during that entire time
     
  17. Asher

    Asher Registered User

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    As bad as KP was with 1st rounders he managed to find players in the later rounds -- Stoll, Greene, and Brodziak come to mind. I don't think any of Stu's picks will turn out to be as good as those players I listed.
     
  18. IButtersI

    IButtersI Registered User

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    Is this post for real?

    Actually read the OP again and feel free to edit your post.
     
  19. MinnesotaFats

    MinnesotaFats Registered User

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    I wanted Lehner in 2009. If we'd taken him, we're probably not talking about getting bent over a barrel to acquire a pending UFA goalie right now. Guy is the real deal. I also wanted Boone Jenner. This org seems to be afraid to draft for need which makes no sense to me, especially outside the first round. As has been pointed out above, you basically have a 25% shot of finding a player in round 2 and it only goes down from there. Why not take the type of player you need rather than thinking you're smarter than everyone and going 10-25 spots off the board all the time? Thats what pisses me off about our drafting. So often our picks are guys projected to go much later. I don't mind the occassional reach, but it seems like we do it nearly every round and it doesnt seem to ever pay off for us. That alone tells me our scouting staff is out to lunch.
     
  20. McDoused

    McDoused Registered User

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    The biggest problem with this is the timing of the RNH pick. We didn't know we would be drafting 1st overall again in 2013. We needed a center and RNH fills that bill. I don't think anyone could argue that.

    As far as Galchenyuk goes, lets not get too carried away after 6 games. Yakupov had the better rookie season and lead his team in goals.

    Either way, we are losing games because of Goaltending. Not because we didn't draft Galchenyuk.
     
  21. Draiskull

    Draiskull Registered User

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    You cant tell a year and a half after the draft but you expect the scouts to get it right at the draft. Hindsight IS 2020... Look who was picked right after Moroz, Musil and how many other teams also passed up on Jenner\Saad\Zucker..

    The scouts work with the info they have.. EDM's scouts have been as un psychic as any other team.
    Scouting IMO is not an issue... developing these kids properly sometimes is.
     
  22. Jimmi McJenkins

    Jimmi McJenkins Sometimes Miracles

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    Point, Completely Missed.
     
  23. Asher

    Asher Registered User

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    Did Stu pick Petry? I don't believe so.
     
  24. McDoused

    McDoused Registered User

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    I didn't realize that you had to be in a rebuild to have successful picks from rounds 3-7.
     
  25. Moose Coleman

    Moose Coleman Registered User

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    The odds of getting a NHLer in the second round are about 25%. So by your count, the Oilers are right around where they should be with their picks.
     

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