What UFA should we really go after?

[Steve Yzerlland]

Well, if they were currently negotiating his agent would be negotiating, not Karlsson himself. Also, free agency doesn't start as soon as the playoffs are over.

It would be his agent and Karlsson. But he said he wanted to get to his UFA status. So he can get the red carpet pulled out like LeBron James does every time he was a FA. He wants to hear what everyone has to say first aside from probably Ottawa...

 

[Shaman464]

Suter hadn't garnered a single Norris vote (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th) by the time he was Trouba's current age. How many top 5 defensemen don't even garner a single vote for the Norris when there are like 20 players who get votes? Trouba is shaping up to have a better career and is better at a young age than Suter was. Yes, I would expect him to pass Suter as a player - he is around the age where the best defensemen typically break out and just had his best offensive season by far. It's certainly not a guarantee, but i'll take my chances.

Because Suter's best hockey coincided with a few player that were more hyped. Keith, Subban, and Burns have all won Norris trophies for either being the best offensive d-man, or by being on prominent teams. The Norris Trophy is famous for going to hyped d-men, instead of the best in the league. I can point to many years between 95 and 2010 where Lidstrom didn't win, when he should have. Al MacInnis, Paul Coffey, Rob Blake, Chris Pronger, and Scott Niedermayer all won in years where I think most of us would argue that Lidstrom was quietly a much better D-man.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Because Suter's best hockey coincided with a few player that were more hyped. Keith, Subban, and Burns have all won Norris trophies for either being the best offensive d-man, or by being on prominent teams. The Norris Trophy is famous for going to hyped d-men, instead of the best in the league. I can point to many years between 95 and 2010 where Lidstrom didn't win, when he should have. Al MacInnis, Paul Coffey, Rob Blake, Chris Pronger, and Scott Niedermayer all won in years where I think most of us would argue that Lidstrom was quietly a much better D-man.

over blake for sure, niedermayer and macinnis too imo but Lidström didn't deserve it over coffey, he really broke out couple of years later than that. pronger deserved his norris and hart that year. he was a monster.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I haven't seen the games but people in the playoffs forum are saying Karlsson has looked terrible so far. On ice for 11 of the 13 Vegas goals. I'd have to think the groin injury must still be bothering him.

He's not really a positional defender so if Karlsson can't skate well he can be brutal.

 

[Shaman464]

over blake for sure, niedermayer and macinnis too imo but Lidström didn't deserve it over coffey, he really broke out couple of years later than that. pronger deserved his norris and hart that year. he was a monster.

I really don't think Pronger deserved it. He was a monster, but, he got a lot of his hype from a team that was one of the best defensive teams of the deadpuck era, and being very visible (because of his physical play and decent point production). But in the same year Lidstrom put up more points, and was a better defender. And, honestly, there was some push back, because of how 'meh' he was in the playoffs that year.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

Question should be "who do we go after that we have a realistic shot at signing?"

I'm not holding my breath for Karlsson. Seriously, outside of backing up a Brinks truck, why does he willingly sign here? The Swedish contingent that EK likely knows will most likely only consist of Ericsson next year. Z is likely done. Kronwall likely retires. Gus got traded, and doubt he returns for a round 2 as a Wing. I doubt EK even knows anything about Ehn/Holmstrom/Larsson. The team is currently a bottom feeder and EK is in his prime. Why does he sign here, as apposed to greener pastures?

Same question for Panarin, Duchene or any other big name FA's, who'll definitely be getting offers from much better teams.


Stralman is probably the most realistic target. Maybe Myers, but I think he also gets better offers elsewhere(not even certain he hits FA). Edler, only if he actually hits FA.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I really don't think Pronger deserved it. He was a monster, but, he got a lot of his hype from a team that was one of the best defensive teams of the deadpuck era, and being very visible (because of his physical play and decent point production). But in the same year Lidstrom put up more points, and was a better defender. And, honestly, there was some push back, because of how 'meh' he was in the playoffs that year.

voting is (was) done before the playoffs start.

i'll look at if i can find the numbers from history of hockey forum but the blues that year were one of the best defensively when pronger was on the ice (about half of the game) but not as good when he wasn't.

 

[Snuggs]

I'm not trading for Trouba when we can just wait til next year. Why give up assets, we aren't a playoff team

Cause other teams can offer even more money or offer the same in a better area? If other teams aren't already planning on trading/extending him this summer.

You're acting like Trouba would even want to come here if he hit the open market.

It's a total pie in the sky thought to begin with that Karlsson will even consider the Red Wings this summer if other teams are offering the same/similar money. So, idk I guess I'll just be quite and stick to with what I orginally said/posted.

* DON'T DO ANYTHING *

 

[Henkka]

Karlsson will consider a team, where he can get his millions and where he can make an impact and get back to clear 1D role.

Things aren't working at Sharks with Burns at the moment, that's obvious. Many contenders are against the cap.

He could definitely pick a team, where that 12M used for him turns that team to another level. Some young and promising. Maybe he picks the Sabres.

If he commits to Red Wings for next 7 years, for the last 6 we are contender for sure.

 

[Snuggs]

Some of you people are nuts!
Trouba is UFA in a year, and Karlsson will demand ridiculous money and term, DURING a rebuild.

I think it'd signal the end of the rebuild and you'd have a lot of money coming off the books next summer
(Howard/Ericssson/Daley/Green)

It might be similar to the Ducks of the early 2000's when they had Niedermayer and Pronger on the ice basically the whole game cause they weren't on the same line with each other, I think we're competitive right away.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I think it'd signal the end of the rebuild and you'd have a lot of money coming off the books next summer
(Howard/Ericssson/Daley/Green)

It might be similar to the Ducks of the early 2000's when they had Niedermayer and Pronger on the ice basically the whole game cause they weren't on the same line with each other, I think we're competitive right away.

side question:are the flyers still paying Pronger?

 

[Snuggs]

side question:are the flyers still paying Pronger?

Hahahahaha, yeah I get it. Inherent risk with anyone we sign. We're still paying Wiese/Franzen, maybe Abdelkader too soon too so, IDK... I get your point. I really do, but if you're going to pull moves for the fellas I posted about you really gotta swing for the fence and go hard for those guys if you're the Red Wings.

It's not like we've got everything in place to just offer them "competitive" contracts among the other NHL teams.

 

[Shaman464]

Karlsson will consider a team, where he can get his millions and where he can make an impact and get back to clear 1D role.

Things aren't working at Sharks with Burns at the moment, that's obvious. Many contenders are against the cap.

He could definitely pick a team, where that 12M used for him turns that team to another level. Some young and promising. Maybe he picks the Sabres.

If he commits to Red Wings for next 7 years, for the last 6 we are contender for sure.

The Red Wings aren't contenders for the last 6 for sure. They might peak at dark horse, but look at the contenders today. They can role multiple lines that can score. Right now Detroit has 1 line that can score, and no center depth. Even if Turcotte (who in my opinion is the best center not named Hughes in this draft) drops to Detroit, the team is still 2-3 years away from having adequate center depth. And, if Hronek and Cholo both cap out as 2nd pairing guys, which is a possibility, they are still exceedingly thin on the back end.

Basically, any team would beat Detroit the same way they beat them when they were first round fodder years ago: Shut down the top line, and force the rest of Detroit to beat you, and it guess what, Detroit played a lot of golf while other teams were playing in the 2nd round.

 

[Winger98]

Good chance he surpasses? Boy, how quickly we forget Suter was a top 5 defender for many years. He was never an offensive powerhouse, but you'd be hard pressed to find someone better in all 3 zones that can play half the game.

At the same time I think we're seeing people rain on Trouba because they don't want to pay anything for actual talent and just maybe not horribly suck for the next five years. You know, or until AA and Mantha have essentially slipped entirely from their prime. If that's really the plan, we may as well start looking at dealing Mantha, AA, and Bertuzzi for either high picks or guys a few years younger.

 

[Shaman464]

At the same time I think we're seeing people rain on Trouba because they don't want to pay anything for actual talent and just maybe not horribly suck for the next five years. You know, or until AA and Mantha have essentially slipped entirely from their prime. If that's really the plan, we may as well start looking at dealing Mantha, AA, and Bertuzzi for either high picks or guys a few years younger.

There are windows when it makes sense to try to go for talent. I think going after Trouba next season makes a ton more sense than going hard for EK this season though.

 

[The Zermanator]

There are windows when it makes sense to try to go for talent. I think going after Trouba next season makes a ton more sense than going hard for EK this season though.

I think going after both makes the most sense. Dmen take longer to develop. Even if we draft our future #1 sometime in the next 1-2 years, unless it's a Dahlin type then we're talking probably 5-6 years before that happens. By that time all our hotshot forwards are 5-6 years older. Add both of those guys within a year and all of a sudden with Hronek and Cholowski the top 4 is set going forward, and it coincides much better with the prime of our forwards.

EDIT: Most Cup winners/challengers have at least one key addition from either FA or trade, you can't just build from the draft if you want to contend. Too many things need to go perfectly right to not end up with a team full of glaring holes. That's what those other avenues are for, to acquire specific players to fill those holes left by busts/disappointments/etc.

 

[haulinbass]

Makes zero sense to go after free agents.. Not that they would want to come here considering we aren't close to a playoff contender.

Stay the course and rebuild

 

[The Zermanator]

Makes zero sense to go after free agents.. Not that they would want to come here considering we aren't close to a playoff contender.

Stay the course and rebuild

Makes no sense not to add a Karlsson when you have the opportunity, especially for free.

 

[Shaman464]

Makes no sense not to add a Karlsson when you have the opportunity, especially for free.

It makes perfect sense if your objective is to contend. Detroit currently is one of the least talented teams in the league. Adding EK on the outside adds 10 wins. On the outside. 10 wins puts them around 90 points (if half the wins are from OT losses, and half are from regulation loses). That's best case scenario. And that still puts them as a bubble team. Meaning they are no longer likely to draft elite talent, but more likely to be drafting more roleplayers. Probably less wins than that. Given the age of most of the young players, they have hit near their peak progression. It really means that what's going to happen is they put themselves into mediocrity instead of being just plain bad. This doesn't make sense.

 

[The Zermanator]

It makes perfect sense if your objective is to contend. Detroit currently is one of the least talented teams in the league. Adding EK on the outside adds 10 wins. On the outside. 10 wins puts them around 90 points (if half the wins are from OT losses, and half are from regulation loses). That's best case scenario. And that still puts them as a bubble team. Meaning they are no longer likely to draft elite talent, but more likely to be drafting more roleplayers. Probably less wins than that. Given the age of most of the young players, they have hit near their peak progression. It really means that what's going to happen is they put themselves into mediocrity instead of being just plain bad. This doesn't make sense.

What makes no sense is to pass up guaranteed elite talent for the possibility of elite talent. A bird in hand and all that.

What is your answer to the top pair on D? To draft one? Have anyone in mind? Best case scenario there is if we draft one sometime in the next year or two. Barring a Dahlin-level talent (of which I've not heard anything), it's gonna be half a decade+ before that dman develops into a number 1. And what if we don't draft that dman in the next couple years? Our track record for drafting D doesn't exactly inspire confidence... You want to see Larkin's 20s wasted with the same defensive holes that have plagued us for 8 years already? Talk about dooming yourself to mediocrity.

We have bona fide elite talent in Larkin. Decent shots at elite talent in Zadina and the 2019 1st. Add sure thing elite talent in Karlsson and borderline elite in Trouba and you have something. Upswing's gotta start sometime, can't just twiddle our thumbs waiting for a gift from the hockey gods in the draft.

 

[Shaman464]

What makes no sense is to pass up guaranteed elite talent for the possibility of elite talent. A bird in hand and all that.

What is your answer to the top pair on D? To draft one? Have anyone in mind? Best case scenario there is if we draft one sometime in the next year or two. Barring a Dahlin-level talent (of which I've not heard anything), it's gonna be half a decade+ before that dman develops into a number 1. And what if we don't draft that dman in the next couple years? Our track record for drafting D doesn't exactly inspire confidence... You want to see Larkin's 20s wasted with the same defensive holes that have plagued us for 8 years already? Talk about dooming yourself to mediocrity.

We have bona fide elite talent in Larkin. Decent shots at elite talent in Zadina and the 2019 1st. Add sure thing elite talent in Karlsson and borderline elite in Trouba and you have something. Upswing's gotta start sometime, can't just twiddle our thumbs waiting for a gift from the hockey gods in the draft.

I wouldn't call Larkin elite. He's great, but, under ppg in a season where scoring skyrocketed isn't elite, even with intangibles and defense and other Toews adjectives. And the problem with your argument is the crux of your argument works against you. EK is entering the time where a downward trajectory is all but a given. If he was 26 it'd be a different argument, but Detroit is going to be buying, buy signing him, pretty much only years in his 30s. Even in his prime years he wasn't enough to take a bad Ottawa team and making them good, why would he, in his starting to pass his prime years, be the key to turning the corner.

And how do you get elite defense talent? Well it will start with Holland being willing to make a hockey trade, and trading young players and prospects for it. I'd rather give up AA and Veleno for a 22-25 year old d-man with team controlled salary, than to pay north of 10 million for a guy whose best years are very likely behind him.

 

[The Zermanator]

I wouldn't call Larkin elite. He's great, but, under ppg in a season where scoring skyrocketed isn't elite, even with intangibles and defense and other Toews adjectives. And the problem with your argument is the crux of your argument works against you. EK is entering the time where a downward trajectory is all but a given. If he was 26 it'd be a different argument, but Detroit is going to be buying, buy signing him, pretty much only years in his 30s. Even in his prime years he wasn't enough to take a bad Ottawa team and making them good, why would he, in his starting to pass his prime years, be the key to turning the corner.

And how do you get elite defense talent? Well it will start with Holland being willing to make a hockey trade, and trading young players and prospects for it. I'd rather give up AA and Veleno for a 22-25 year old d-man with team controlled salary, than to pay north of 10 million for a guy whose best years are very likely behind him.

Larkin has very little offensive support, especially from the back end. Detroit had the 19th ranked PP% and 21st in GF. Bump that PP% up (which Karlsson 100% would) and Larkin's numbers go up. Add Karlsson's offensive skills and puckmoving ability and numbers go up. A PPG+ player who is elite defensively is absolutely elite.

And the crux of my argument doesn't work against me at all. Burns, Giordano, Suter, Weber, Keith, Byfuglien. All dmen in their mid-30s who are still very, very good. Some of them amongst the best D in the league. That list gets even longer if you want to look at D who are still very good in their early 30s. By what basis do you discount Karlsson based on his age? Top 3 dmen don't just fall off the face of the earth (and Karlsson was the undisputed best at one point), there are plenty of examples of that.

I'd love to give up AA and Veleno for a 22-25 year old #1 with a team controlled salary, haven't booted up NHL 19 in a while though. You'd think if it were that easy to acquire a #1 through trade we would have done it by now...

 

[Shaman464]

Larkin has very little offensive support, especially from the back end. Detroit had the 19th ranked PP% and 21st in GF. Bump that PP% up (which Karlsson 100% would) and Larkin's numbers go up. Add Karlsson's offensive skills and puckmoving ability and numbers go up. A PPG+ player who is elite defensively is absolutely elite.

And the crux of my argument doesn't work against me at all. Burns, Giordano, Suter, Weber, Keith, Byfuglien. All dmen in their mid-30s who are still very, very good. Some of them amongst the best D in the league. That list gets even longer if you want to look at D who are still very good in their early 30s. By what basis do you discount Karlsson based on his age? Top 3 dmen don't just fall off the face of the earth (and Karlsson was the undisputed best at one point), there are plenty of examples of that.

I'd love to give up AA and Veleno for a 22-25 year old #1 with a team controlled salary, haven't booted up NHL 19 in a while though. You'd think if it were that easy to acquire a #1 through trade we would have done it by now...

Its not like Larsson was moved for an center that wasn't anywhere near ppg for multiple seasons.

And, that's pure speculation, there is no way to know if that's the case for Larkin. This season could be a league wide aberration for goals per game. There are too many what ifs, perfect situations, and could be's to take 'Larkin could be better'. Until he puts up an elite season, he's not elite. Period.

 

[The Zermanator]

Its not like Larsson was moved for an center that wasn't anywhere near ppg for multiple seasons.

And, that's pure speculation, there is no way to know if that's the case for Larkin. This season could be a league wide aberration for goals per game. There are too many what ifs, perfect situations, and could be's to take 'Larkin could be better'. Until he puts up an elite season, he's not elite. Period.

I don't know which Larsson you're talking about, and what it has to do with any of this.

If you want to die on the 'Larkin isn't elite' hill, have fun. Gonna be a real lonely place. Saying Larkin's point totals will go up if he has Karlsson feeding him from the back end instead of what we currently have isn't pure speculation. Karlsson has something like 0.89 PPG avg over the last 6-7 seasons, that's 73 points. That's a lot of extra production. Seeing as how Karlsson would get the most minutes on the back end, and Larkin on the front end, stands to reason they'd be playing together quite a bit. And then you add PP time on top of that, with both of them on PP1. You don't think Larkin will benefit from that in terms of more points? There's no 'perfect situations' or 'what ifs' about it, it's math.

What's the aberration in scoring? This year's scoring rate was slightly above last year's, and there's been a general upward trend for the last 5+ years but it's nothing crazy. It's not even the most we've seen in the cap era. We're not seeing a crazy surge in general scoring. It's just becoming more top-heavy, with the major point producers enjoying career years. The 3rd and 4th liners are scoring less, the 1st liners are scoring more. This is something that benefits Larkin since he's a part of the latter group.

 

[Winger98]

There are windows when it makes sense to try to go for talent. I think going after Trouba next season makes a ton more sense than going hard for EK this season though.

The window is never going to make sense in one way or another. Keep waiting, and the rebuild is going to start over with whoever we end up drafting three years from now.