Player Discussion: What to do with Lemieux?

[LowLefty]

That does not make the average fan right, nor does it make the player any better.

In many cases, the average fan isn't out to prove themselves "right" - they are simply stating an opinion about a player or aspect of the game.

The fans that see themselves as "above average" are sometimes the ones that feel they are "right" -

When you have the view that hockey advanced stats trump opinion, we then start calling the fan with an opinion, average.

That can take a lot of the fun out of it for the "average" fan.

 

[ffh]

I didn't know if the kid would be able to return from the low of that game and start contributing like he has. Actually says a lot about him. He just might go from an almost universally disliked player on this board to a regular, to an important player at some point in the future. Kind of reminds me of how everyone seemed to view Tanev, and then we witnessed the gradual growth to the player he has become today.

a couple of things you always seem like a level headed guy. you think a player playing in his 1st dozen or so games of his career might not be able to return from what. trying to make a hit and barely missing and grazing someone's head and getting a penalty. that was somehow going to plunge him into a low he might not return from. also I doubt he is universally disliked at all. maybe by the fancy stats people who are all petan fans and feel Lemieux is taking his job from him and at tops .5% of the fan base but universally disliked. not even close.

 

[Maukkis]

In many cases, the average fan isn't out to prove themselves "right" - they are simply stating an opinion about a player or aspect of the game.

The fans that see themselves as "above average" are sometimes the ones that feel they are "right" -

When you have the view that hockey advanced stats trump opinion, we then start calling the fan with an opinion, average.

That can take a lot of the fun out of it for the "average" fan.

You, me, the next guy. All just fans. All just people. It was not me who brought this up, mind you. Instead, I was basically told that stat nerds belong to a minority among fans, so take your blame elsewhere.

Lemieux's SH% and OISH% are high, perhaps even unsustainable. Those are facts. Anyone can ignore them at their own peril. I won't.

 

[LowLefty]

You, me, the next guy. All just fans. All just people. It was not me who brought this up, mind you. Instead, I was basically told that stat nerds belong to a minority among fans, so take your blame elsewhere.

Lemieux's SH% and OISH% are high, perhaps even unsustainable. Those are facts. Anyone can ignore them at their own peril. I won't.

I never ignore stats - I just don't live or die by them.
I actually appreciate the stat call outs and the fans that call them out.
I really didn't need a call out on Lemmy's shooting % - obviously not going to continue at that rate but goals are goals and I see a positive in that.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

You, me, the next guy. All just fans. All just people. It was not me who brought this up, mind you. Instead, I was basically told that stat nerds belong to a minority among fans, so take your blame elsewhere.

Lemieux's SH% and OISH% are high, perhaps even unsustainable. Those are facts. Anyone can ignore them at their own peril. I won't.

The reason why I tend to get annoyed with statistical analysis on a a rookie with less than half a season of games under his belt, like Lemieux, is some try to use the numbers, good or bad, to define a player that is years away from being fully defined.

Some have been attaching Lemieux’s corsi to him as a way to negatively define him as a player, when its data that shows nothing other than a rookie getting his feet wet in the NHL. Yet some want to convince us he is another Thorburn which correlates well with a crap corsi.

As little as that defines him, so does his amazing SH% as an NHL sniper. Neither give us any indication as to what Lemieux is going to be as a fully developed player.

Lets allow a learning curve to take place before using data to define a player. Lemieux has always had good hands and made a name for himself by deflecting pucks in junior. Chances are he will have a higher shooting % because deflecting pucks is a method for improving shooting%. He is now finding some confidence at the NHL level to show this quality.

 

[Maukkis]

The reason why I tend to get annoyed with statistical analysis on a a rookie with less than half a season of games under his belt, like Lemieux, is some try to use the numbers, good or bad, to define a player that is years away from being fully defined.

Some have been attaching Lemieux’s corsi to him as a way to negatively define him as a player, when its data that shows nothing other than a rookie getting his feet wet in the NHL. Yet some want to convince us he is another Thorburn which correlates well with a crap corsi.

As little as that defines him, so does his amazing SH% as an NHL sniper. Neither give us any indication as to what Lemieux is going to be as a fully developed player.

Lets allow a learning curve to take place before using data to define a player. Lemieux has always had good hands and made a name for himself by deflecting pucks in junior. Chances are he will have a higher shooting % because deflecting pucks is a method for improving shooting%. He is now finding some confidence at the NHL level to show this quality.

Yeah, the sample size we have on Lemieux is basically insufficient for any kind of analysis. But a couple of two-goal nights don't really compensate for the fact that with Lemieux on the ice - even if it has been just a handful of games - we are being badly outshot. That is a problem.

We could use a net front guy; there are enough skilled forwards who are allergic to driving the net on this team. That being said, there is not many positive things to be said about his body of work so far. Let's hope he improves in a hurry, especially considering that we have a better option for the his roster spot in the PB.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah, the sample size we have on Lemieux is basically insufficient for any kind of analysis. But a couple of two-goal nights don't really compensate for the fact that with Lemieux on the ice - even if it has been just a handful of games - we are being badly outshot. That is a problem.

We could use a net front guy; there are enough skilled forwards who are allergic to driving the net on this team. That being said, there is not many positive things to be said about his body of work so far. Let's hope he improves in a hurry, especially considering that we have a better option for the his roster spot in the PB.

You say sample size is insufficient and yet you also want to insist that Petan is a better option. Make up your mind.

 

[Tommigun]

Yeah, the sample size we have on Lemieux is basically insufficient for any kind of analysis. But a couple of two-goal nights don't really compensate for the fact that with Lemieux on the ice - even if it has been just a handful of games - we are being badly outshot. That is a problem.

We could use a net front guy; there are enough skilled forwards who are allergic to driving the net on this team. That being said, there is not many positive things to be said about his body of work so far. Let's hope he improves in a hurry, especially considering that we have a better option for the his roster spot in the PB.

What? First you say that the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions from, and then you say his “body of work” needs to improve? Which is it?

Also, I don’t think it’s ok to brush all the good achievements under the rug as too small a sample size to draw conclusions from, but still use the same small sample size to point out negatives.

That was a very contradictory post.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

You say sample size is insufficient and yet you also want to insist that Petan is a better option. Make up your mind.

Petan could be, with a little more opportunity, but he has had double the opportunity Lemieux has had.

The question now is, what does another 60 games of NHL experience do for Lemieux’s game, does he pass Petan with that extra experience?

 

[Maukkis]

You say sample size is insufficient and yet you also want to insist that Petan is a better option. Make up your mind.

Petan has done more with whatever little opportunity he has gotten.

What? First you say that the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions from, and then you say his “body of work” needs to improve? Which is it?

Also, I don’t think it’s ok to brush all the good achievements under the rug as too small a sample size to draw conclusions from, but still use the same small sample size to point out negatives.

That was a very contradictory post.

The body of work being the 200 or so minutes he has played this year. That could change for the better, but if it doesn't, you can safely say that Lemieux is not a NHL caliber player.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Petan has done more with whatever little opportunity he has gotten.

The body of work being the 200 or so minutes he has played this year. That could change for the better, but if it doesn't, you can safely say that Lemieux is not a NHL caliber player.

Petan has 5 goals. Lemieux has 6. Even I can do that math.

 

[Board Bard]

Petan has done more with whatever little opportunity he has gotten.

The body of work being the 200 or so minutes he has played this year. That could change for the better, but if it doesn't, you can safely say that Lemieux is not a NHL caliber player.

Maurice doesn't see "NHL-caliber player" the same way a lot of us do. Petan would need to be twice as good (or more) than Lemieux to get the nod, but Maurice is making sure that can never happen by keeping him the press box.

 

[ffh]

what ever happened to p/60. wasn't this the reason for years why petan should be starting over a dozen or so players like lowry and tanev. now it looks like Lemieux has a better p/60 then petan and this stat isn't that important anymore. I wonder why. now high danger opportunities seem to matter. even sh%. I wouldn't worry about sh% being high on lemieux when you are comparing it to someone who has proven he cant score in this league and has a 0% shooting percentage. Lemieux is better in every way and that's why he is starting over petan. and with tons more of upside to boot.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Maurice doesn't see "NHL-caliber player" the same way a lot of us do. Petan would need to be twice as good (or more) than Lemieux to get the nod, but Maurice is making sure that can never happen by keeping him the press box.

Yep Petan would need to put up 4 goal games. Tough when you've got 5 total goals.

 

[Board Bard]

what ever happened to p/60. wasn't this the reason for years why petan should be starting over a dozen or so players like lowry and tanev. now it looks like Lemieux has a better p/60 then petan and this stat isn't that important anymore. I wonder why. now high danger opportunities seem to matter. even sh%. I wouldn't worry about sh% being high on lemieux when you are comparing it to someone who has proven he cant score in this league and has a 0% shooting percentage. Lemieux is better in every wat and that's why he is starting over petan. and with tons more of upside to boot.

All of that is possible. But not certain at this point. What does seem certain is that Maurice will not be giving Petan any chance to prove what his own worth is right now. In fact I don't think Maurice ever thought much of Petan, going back to day one.

 

[Adam da bomb]

All of that is possible. But not certain at this point. What does seem certain is that Maurice will not be giving Petan any chance to prove what his own worth is right now. In fact I don't think Maurice ever thought much of Petan, going back to day one.

He definitely didn't think as highly of Petan as the people on here.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

My biggest concern with Lemmy is his gap control. The one that appears occasionally between his ears.

 

[ffh]

All of that is possible. But not certain at this point. What does seem certain is that Maurice will not be giving Petan any chance to prove what his own worth is right now. In fact I don't think Maurice ever thought much of Petan, going back to day one.

I don't believe that and I don't think you do too. when we were bad a few years back everybody got lots of ice time. petan got over 50 games played and 11 minutes a game. that is being given a shot to make it. same minutes as tanev. the rest is up to the player.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's likely been in the offensive zone more than Connor this season, and has actually produced points at a higher rate, too.

Lemieux certainly has his limitations, but after a very poor first 10-15 games in terms of shot metrics, he's been quite a bit better over the next 20 games or so. Overall, his rel CF% is only -2.86, which isn't terrible for a 4th liner, especially when you discount the shaky first 15 games or so.

I think he's being judged a tad harshly around here when you look objectively at his performance this season so far. He's been a net positive in penalty differential, is scoring at a 2nd line rate, and over the past 10-15 games he's above 50% on CF.

Credit where its due. He has been doing all the things he had to do. He was given an opportunity. Personally, I don't think he had won that opportunity. But what matters is that he is making something out of it. He is doing more to make the Jets winners than what his competition did with their opportunities.

So far, so good. If he can keep it up he will have won a regular spot. He adds a little grit to the lineup and as long as he is a positive in penalties that grit is a plus.

He needed that first 15 games to gain the confidence to start playing well. I think the trick now will be to not become overconfident. When/if that happens we may see cocky, bad Lemmy return. If he can avoid that he will have a good NHL career.

 

[Whileee]

Lemieux is our Tanev replacement next year when we can't afford Brandon.

And the team has badly needed someone who can deflect and clean up scraps.

No point in comparing him to anyone on the roster - his skillset is unique and he looks like he might just earn a spot permanently.

That would be appropriate. Tanev was a whipping boy on the forum last year, so might as well replace him with another.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Any time a player has "grit" a certain segment of the online fandom comes down hard on a player like that

 

[Duke749]

I can’t believe Lemieux has 5 goals and two 2 goal games. Like wtf?!?

 

[Whileee]

Credit where its due. He has been doing all the things he had to do. He was given an opportunity. Personally, I don't think he had won that opportunity. But what matters is that he is making something out of it. He is doing more to make the Jets winners than what his competition did with their opportunities.

So far, so good. If he can keep it up he will have won a regular spot. He adds a little grit to the lineup and as long as he is a positive in penalties that grit is a plus.

He needed that first 15 games to gain the confidence to start playing well. I think the trick now will be to not become overconfident. When/if that happens we may see cocky, bad Lemmy return. If he can avoid that he will have a good NHL career.

I think young players earn opportunities in the offseason and in camp and practices, not just in a handful of preseason or early season games. Lemieux dropped weight and improved his skating dramatically, and by all accounts impresses in practice with his work ethic and skillset. That doesn't mean NHL coaches don't make mistakes with player evaluation, but they have more information than fans do, and for young players they need to project their performance into the future.

 

[Whileee]

Yeah, the sample size we have on Lemieux is basically insufficient for any kind of analysis. But a couple of two-goal nights don't really compensate for the fact that with Lemieux on the ice - even if it has been just a handful of games - we are being badly outshot. That is a problem.

We could use a net front guy; there are enough skilled forwards who are allergic to driving the net on this team. That being said, there is not many positive things to be said about his body of work so far. Let's hope he improves in a hurry, especially considering that we have a better option for the his roster spot in the PB.

To reiterate, the Jets haven't been badly outshot when Lemieux is on the ice for the past 15-20 games, except for a few games where they played a lot with Morrow and Niku behind them. Nobody's slagging Niku for his poor Corsi, because he's Niku, and some context is considered for his metrics.

Last game I thought Lemieux had one of his best shifts on Appleton's goal, though he didn't get a point. That 4th line looked very strong against a tough opponent, regardless if goals. We can all acknowledge that, I think.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think young players earn opportunities in the offseason and in camp and practices, not just in a handful of preseason or early season games. Lemieux dropped weight and improved his skating dramatically, and by all accounts impresses in practice with his work ethic and skillset. That doesn't mean NHL coaches don't make mistakes with player evaluation, but they have more information than fans do, and for young players they need to project their performance into the future.

I'm pretty sure I saw the same things reported about Dano. When Petan got back from his leave we saw his skating and engagement much improved. Dano outplayed Lemieux in TC. Petan outplayed him when he got into the lineup. Lemieux got the job. Who knows why? Maybe Mau just wanted more grit in the lineup - or size. Maybe it was Lemieux's speed that did it. Both Dano and Petan had improved their speed but Lemieux was faster.

The thing now is that Lemieux is taking advantage of the opportunity. That says nothing about whether Dano or Petan would have also or not, given the same opportunity. It doesn't have to. The fact is that Lemieux has elevated his game to a point where he deserves the TOI. The remaining question is just whether he can maintain his play and his discipline. If he does that he will be a valuable member of the team for some time to come.