What the hell is going on with the Sharks?

[pabst blue ribbon]

I'll copy the post I made in our GDT today here as well.

So I'm looking at some stats over the last 3 games, because apparently I'm a masochist. Here is what has stood out to me.

Sharks have 101 Shots For and 66 Shots Against to combine for a 60.48% SF%. This is absurdly high and obviously unsustainable as the top team last year had 54%. Corsi% and Fenwick% are similarly above 60%.

Sharks have 98 Scoring Chances for and 70 against, but only have 4 SCGF vs 9 SCGA. Shooting percentage on scoring chances is 4% for and 13% against. League average last year was about 8.5%.

Sharks have 39 High Danger Chances for and 33 against, but only have 2 HDGF vs 7 HDGA. Shooting percentage on high danger chances is 5% for and 21% against. League average last year was about 14%.

Sharks have the leagues worst PDO so far, at 0.883. This is a combined 4.95% shooting percentage and 83.33% save percentage. League average last year was about 9% shooting and 91% save (for a PDO of 1.000 obviously). By the end of the season its rare to have a team below 0.970 or above 1.03 PDO. So a combined 3% shooting and save percent is extremely uncommon, the Sharks are a combined 12% just 3 games in.

The good to take out of this is that most people believe shooting percentage (and therefore PDO) is largely based on luck. If that is the case, these games should be anomalies and the Shark's record will normalize over the 82 game season. The Sharks are getting incredibly unlucky on both ends of the ice through 3 games and there is very little reason to believe it will continue to be so. I get why it is frustrating, it seems the Sharks outplay (out shoot and chance) opponents and lose games way more than they should (I can name a number of playoff series lost in this manner).

TL;DR: The Sharks are statistically out playing their opponents by getting more shots, and more importantly more chances to score (both high danger and normal). However their shooting and save percentages are abysmal. They are essentially the anti-2017-vegas (because vegas had unsustainable PDO all last year). Their PDO will normalize over the next 79 games and their record will reflect that, so don't burn the town down just yet.

Vegas finished 10th in PDO last year, their PDO was completely that's hardly unsustainable

 

[BrockLobster]

Shut out by the worst team amd franchise in hockey history! Most definitely time for major concern in sharks land

 

[Agent Zub]

I dont know what everyone is going on about. The sharks have dominated 2 of their 3 games.

 

[Dessert Nights]

When you PP it Burns but will it Karlsson?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

the wrong side of 30 would he anything after 30

not confusing lol

I don't think that phrase is used correctly when Vlasic is still in his prime though. It's not like he's on a steady decline right now.

 

[Powinkle]

Sharks will never win a game again. Its over.

 

[IPS]

Firstly: Powerplay Karlsson on the half wall is not a recipe for success. Put him where hes made his living at the top of the umbrella. I feel like San Jose needs to deploy two units evenly like the leafs did last year rather then overloading one with two dmen.

Secondly: Karlsson has always been trash defensively and he is still trash defensively.

Do they have enough talent to spread it around like the Leafs did?

I tried telling Sharks fans that Karlssson will have a diminishing returns type effect on the team with Burns already there and they didn't believe me. I believe @GreatGonzo was saying the same thing too. I watched Karlsson in Ottawa against the Leafs for his whole career. He needs to be on the point on the PP, he's always done his best work from there and it was never going to work to try and fit him into a 1-3-1 PP composition on the half-walls.

 

[IPS]

They are going to win the cup, this is going to be a hilarious bump.

Almost every top team from last year got older or worse depth wise. The Sharks added a generational offensive defenseman to their core without changing much from their team who have a legit number 1 started, good forwards and 2 allstars on their back end.

Who in the Western conference actually got better? Its the team with Karlsson i imagine.

I don't think they're strong enough up the middle to win a cup. I'm not convinced old-man Thornton and Couture are adequate enough.

Several teams in the West have a stronger team IMO.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Love the overreaction fans have in the beginning of the season.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Haven't they played like 3 games? This thread already? Seriously?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Looking forward to the Montreal Ottawa conference finals

 

[Ronnie Residue]

Haven't they played like 3 games? This thread already? Seriously?

Yeah they’ve only lost two, and they dominated Anaheim. Had bad goaltending and Gibson played phenomenal. Outside of the goalies it was our game.
It truly is hilarious that this nonsense thread exists.

 

[Ronnie Residue]

Do they have enough talent to spread it around like the Leafs did?

I tried telling Sharks fans that Karlssson will have a diminishing returns type effect on the team with Burns already there and they didn't believe me. I believe @GreatGonzo was saying the same thing too. I watched Karlsson in Ottawa against the Leafs for his whole career. He needs to be on the point on the PP, he's always done his best work from there and it was never going to work to try and fit him into a 1-3-1 PP composition on the half-walls.

This thread is dumb, but yes the power play is an issue, having karlsson anywhere but the point is insane.
You’ll notice on the sharks board it’s pretty much consistent through the posters, that we hate our power play set up.

 

[Trap Jesus]

Not saying they won't be able to make it all mesh, but Karlsson and Burns is a bit of an odd combo. Karlsson is going to have to take on a much more defensive role than is probably ideal. Vlasic as a partner does give him a lot of leeway though.

They both like to be in the same spot on the PP, where they're both among the best in the league, so we'll see how they adjust because you can't let them both run their own unit. Players of that caliber both need to be out at much as possible on the PP.

 

[Damisoph]

Always has to be one extreme or the other. They get Karlsson and they're SC contenders - a few games in they're struggling and now what's wrong with them. Let it play out ffs

 

[CupsOverCash]

Always has to be one extreme or the other. They get Karlsson and they're SC contenders - a few games in they're struggling and now what's wrong with them. Let it play out ffs

Welcome to HF boards!

 

[SjMilhouse]

I'll copy the post I made in our GDT today here as well.

So I'm looking at some stats over the last 3 games, because apparently I'm a masochist. Here is what has stood out to me.

Sharks have 101 Shots For and 66 Shots Against to combine for a 60.48% SF%. This is absurdly high and obviously unsustainable as the top team last year had 54%. Corsi% and Fenwick% are similarly above 60%.

Sharks have 98 Scoring Chances for and 70 against, but only have 4 SCGF vs 9 SCGA. Shooting percentage on scoring chances is 4% for and 13% against. League average last year was about 8.5%.

Sharks have 39 High Danger Chances for and 33 against, but only have 2 HDGF vs 7 HDGA. Shooting percentage on high danger chances is 5% for and 21% against. League average last year was about 14%.

Sharks have the leagues worst PDO so far, at 0.883. This is a combined 4.95% shooting percentage and 83.33% save percentage. League average last year was about 9% shooting and 91% save (for a PDO of 1.000 obviously). By the end of the season its rare to have a team below 0.970 or above 1.03 PDO. So a combined 3% shooting and save percent is extremely uncommon, the Sharks are a combined 12% just 3 games in.

The good to take out of this is that most people believe shooting percentage (and therefore PDO) is largely based on luck. If that is the case, these games should be anomalies and the Shark's record will normalize over the 82 game season. The Sharks are getting incredibly unlucky on both ends of the ice through 3 games and there is very little reason to believe it will continue to be so. I get why it is frustrating, it seems the Sharks outplay (out shoot and chance) opponents and lose games way more than they should (I can name a number of playoff series lost in this manner).

TL;DR: The Sharks are statistically out playing their opponents by getting more shots, and more importantly more chances to score (both high danger and normal). However their shooting and save percentages are abysmal. They are essentially the anti-2017-vegas (because vegas had unsustainable PDO all last year). Their PDO will normalize over the next 79 games and their record will reflect that, so don't burn the town down just yet.

Pretty much this. It's 3 games into the season, they have had terrible puck luck despite outplaying their opponent for large stretches of each of their 3 games, and their still trying to integrate Karlsson.

Only real concern at this point is Spotts deployment on the PP which has been hilariously bad.

 

[Drytoast]

"would you rather have 2 #1c's or 2 "#1d's..."


Guess what these boards voted for...







lol.

 

[CornKicker]

ottawa has been really good........

i think we all know what the issue was in ottawa

EKTrouble

 

[Drytoast]

ottawa has been really good........

i think we all know what the issue was in ottawa

EKTrouble

So if EK was trouble for Ottawa...then it stands to reason that ______ is trouble for Edmonton?

 

[Frosty415]

"would you rather have 2 #1c's or 2 "#1d's..."


Guess what these boards voted for...




lol.

For the option that triggers leaf fans?

Love me some premature opinions!

 

[Paperbagofglory]

ottawa has been really good........

i think we all know what the issue was in ottawa

EKTrouble

Incoming Chabot trade for a second round pick because Melnyk.

 

[Drytoast]

For the option that triggers leaf fans?

Love me some premature opinions!

It doesn't trigger us...we are used to the way polls go.

It just makes everyone else look like idiots.

 

[Semantics]

For the option that triggers leaf fans?

Love me some premature opinions!

"I'm jealous of the Leafs, so I'm going to make a fool of myself, that'll show 'em!!!" - HF posters

 

[CornKicker]

Incoming Chabot trade for a second round pick because Melnyk.

denied,

Chabot is still on his ELC, thats free money for scrooge melnyk

although i am surprised a team like Philly hasnt tried to acquire Anderson.