What more does Datsyuk need to do before he is a HoF Lock?

[RedMachine87]

Maybe if Datsyuk played with Lemieux and Jagr for a season and played vs some of the same swiss cheese goaltenders he'd put up 1200. In all seriousness though, I am sure most of the writers will adjust their analysis to how well they dominated their peers, not numbers. It's kinda unrealistic to still use the 80s standard of points in today's NHL.

No, I actually think you are right on with this. You watch some of the goals guys like Gretzkey and Lemieux scored back in the day and you think there is no way those go in in today's NHL (because of better goal tending, defense, shot blocking, etc.). Don't get me wrong they are great players, but it's very difficult to compare players across different eras. If Gretzkey had played in today's NHL his point totals would of been significantly lower.

 

[5lidyzer19]

He won TWO stanley cups and has only been in ONE stanley cup finals.

That alone should make him a HHOF lock

It's fairly obvious that he or she means 2 Stanley Cup wins, and one other finals appearence.

 

[Surstromming]

Keep up the good work. And dance with Corey Perry one more time

 

[ColdSteel2]

No, I actually think you are right on with this. You watch some of the goals guys like Gretzkey and Lemieux scored back in the day and you think there is no way those go in in today's NHL (because of better goal tending, defense, shot blocking, etc.). Don't get me wrong they are great players, but it's very difficult to compare players across different eras. If Gretzkey had played in today's NHL his point totals would of been significantly lower.

If Mario or Wayne were playing today and they had to make an extra move or two to get those easier goals in the back of the net, they were fully capable of doing that. Maybe they wouldn't score 200 points, but they probably would have had 150+ in their best years.

 

[Sasha Cares]

He's already a lock IMO.

This

 

[*Bob Richards*]

If Mario or Wayne were playing today and they had to make an extra move or two to get those easier goals in the back of the net, they were fully capable of doing that. Maybe they wouldn't score 200 points, but they probably would have had 150+ in their best years.

But they had the two line pass rule in their day. If they were to play today it's possible they would have put up the same numbers. Hell, if they didn't have the rule in their day they probably would have put up 300 points.

 

[Bob Sacamanu]

I think he'd already make it in. If he plays until he's near 40, no way he doesn't make it.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Obviously Francis is damn impressive, and I'm not trying to diminish that, but I'm sure Datsyuk would appreciate playing in an era with 20% more scoring.

Ok, so give Datsyuk 20% more points.

If Datsyuk has Francis-era scoring totals and plays FIVE more seasons at 80 games apiece at that same rate without diminishing from his prime scoring pace, he trails Francis 1174-1798.

In all seriousness though, I am sure most of the writers will adjust their analysis to how well they dominated their peers, not numbers. It's kinda unrealistic to still use the 80s standard of points in today's NHL.

I get the difference in era, but even if you want to go by peer-to-peer relationships Datsyuk is still behind Francis. If not for Wayne Gretzky, Francis would be the all-time assists leader in league history. The next guy was Mark Messier, a direct peer, who had 50 fewer assists in 20 more games while playing on almost nothing but contenders his whole career. And Francis was miles ahead of great playmakers like Adam Oates and Doug Gilmour, who are borderline HOF'ers in their own right. Datsyuk has not racked up comparable numbers in his own era, being roughly in line with Marc Savard statistically. And it's not like Francis wasn't also a perennial favorite for the Byng and Selke as well, never mind that he's considered one of the great captains of his generation.

It would have been better not to bring Francis into this, the comparison doesn't flatter Datsyuk and is probably unfair to him.

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

retire so he can be inducted.

 

[Oobz]

Datsyuk will be in the HOF. Book it.

 

[hatterson]

No, I actually think you are right on with this. You watch some of the goals guys like Gretzkey and Lemieux scored back in the day and you think there is no way those go in in today's NHL (because of better goal tending, defense, shot blocking, etc.). Don't get me wrong they are great players, but it's very difficult to compare players across different eras. If Gretzkey had played in today's NHL his point totals would of been significantly lower.

At age 35, coming off 3 years away from the sport and with all his injuries, Lemieux still dropped 76 points in 43 games (144 point pace).

At age 35/36, with a terrible back, Gretzky put up 97 points.

Please don't make the mistake of thinking the era they played in was the only reason for their points. These two flat out dominated when they played and would be very capable of doing so in today's NHL. Perhaps not to the 200 point tune, but either of them could drop 150 points today fairly regularly.

Datsyuk is not even remotely close the offensive player that the greats of the 80s and 90s were, and it's not a fair comparison for him.

 

[Sensfanman]

I'm a huge fan of Datsyuk, but Francis played through his decline as he got older, which is normal. You're looking at only Datsyuk's averages for his prime. Maybe if you compared once Datsyuk's averages decline as he plays towards age 40, then it would make sense to compare averages.


Basically. 3-5 years.

I never suggested anything about Datsyuk being better than Francis. I'm just saying that if points are such a big deal, you have to compare apples to apples. You are right in that Datsyuk hasn't tailed off in production, but this isn't a comprehensive look, it's back of the envelope at best.

Nice attempt to use pro-rated stats to ignore the fact that Francis is #2 all time assists and #4 all time points.

Holding PPG over 23 seasons and 1700 games is very significantly harder than holding it over 9 seasons and 600 games regardless of era

When did I ever use those numbers to ignore anything or mention anything about Francis' accomplishments not being impressive? I am just pointing out that Datsyuk is playing in a pretty down scoring era compared to "the standards" of 80s' players, namely the 1000 points people seem to demand.

Are you suggesting the HoF committee is going to draw something like that up, and adjust every players numbers for average offense during the era they played?

What's next? Adjusting Lindros/Bure career point totals based on point total trajectory had they not been injured? Should they consider putting numerical values on leadership/intangibles and give bonus points for every locker room speech, with a double point bonus if the team wins because of it?

Datsyuk was 23 when he entered the NHL and over the next 10 years, compiled 651 points (missing 1 year to lockout).

When Francis was 23 he already had 4 seasons and 331 points under his belt, and over the next 10 years he put up another 858 points (missing half a season to lockout).

Francis had 1,000 career points by the time he was 28, Datsyuk is 33 and we're questioning whether or not he'll ever do it. I think that says all you need to know about trying to compare them.

I'm suggesting maybe the HHOF SHOULD look at this stuff. That doesn't mean they do but then again, most hockey people absolutely suck with numbers or just don't care. As for "all I need to know about trying to compare them", all you show is that Datsyuk started his career late and played in a low scoring era. Not once did I ever compare them and say Datsyuk was better or even attempt to imply it.

Ok, so give Datsyuk 20% more points.

If Datsyuk has Francis-era scoring totals and plays FIVE more seasons at 80 games apiece at that same rate without diminishing from his prime scoring pace, he trails Francis 1174-1798.



I get the difference in era, but even if you want to go by peer-to-peer relationships Datsyuk is still behind Francis. If not for Wayne Gretzky, Francis would be the all-time assists leader in league history. The next guy was Mark Messier, a direct peer, who had 50 fewer assists in 20 more games while playing on almost nothing but contenders his whole career. And Francis was miles ahead of great playmakers like Adam Oates and Doug Gilmour, who are borderline HOF'ers in their own right. Datsyuk has not racked up comparable numbers in his own era, being roughly in line with Marc Savard statistically. And it's not like Francis wasn't also a perennial favorite for the Byng and Selke as well, never mind that he's considered one of the great captains of his generation.

It would have been better not to bring Francis into this, the comparison doesn't flatter Datsyuk and is probably unfair to him.

Direct peers is far from apt if you're going to immediately bring in "all of history" into the discussion. If you want to play that way, you have to look at absolutes, like top 10 finishes, scoring rank on teams (and the difference of peers). Datsyuk is well ahead of Savard, unless you think it'll take him ~140 games to pick up 50 points without bringing the other factors Datsyk has on Savard.

I agree Francis is a poor comparison, and again I thinK Francis is the definition of consistently great, but apparently suggesting his numbers are inflated, like every 80s' player, is herecy around here. Yeesh.

 

[ThirdManIn]

That and, oh, 1200 points or so.

We're talking about Datsyuk having trouble hitting 1000 points... Francis finished with 1249 assists.



I think Thornton has a better chance as it stands right now. He won a Hart, has already hit 1000 points, and has more assists than Datsyuk has points. He's second to Ovechkin in post-lockout scoring (more than Crosby) and the assist leader during that period. I doubt many people realize he is the top scorer of the past decade by an 83-point margin, and for that matter the top scorer since 1997.

If Thornton were to win a Cup and finally get that playoff monkey off his back, he would be an absolute lock if he isn't already. Datsyuk is the better player IMO, but unfortunately the Hall of Fame isn't always about who is the best player. It's more about what each player achieves in his career.

Good post.

He won TWO stanley cups and has only been in ONE stanley cup finals.

That alone should make him a HHOF lock

Haha I was thinking the same thing when I first read this thread, but decided not to say anything

 

[Mr Forever]

Make a comeback with the Chicago Cubs

 

[tarheelhockey]

Direct peers is far from apt if you're going to immediately bring in "all of history" into the discussion.

Considering the top 7 are his immediate peers, and he's #2 behind Gretzky, it seems apt to me. Datsyuk is not #2 in his era nor does he play against anyone close to Gretzky's level.

Datsyuk is well ahead of Savard, unless you think it'll take him ~140 games to pick up 50 points without bringing the other factors Datsyk has on Savard.

Statistically speaking, Datsyuk's leg-up on Savard is that he came into the league at 23 instead of developing in the NHL as a young player.

Marc Savard since age 23: 175-427-602 in 631gp - 0.95 ppg
Pavel Datsyuk since age 23: 221-430-651 in 662gp - 0.98 ppg

Not a significant difference on the statistical level. Again, compare to Francis being a clear-cut #2 behind Gretzky and the point here should be pretty clear. Francis had a similar pedigree in terms of Selke and Byng contention but was a very clear-cut step above Datsyuk offensively no matter how you want to measure it.

 

[Marky9er]

retire so he can be inducted.

This is the reason why I don't want to give this any thought. lol.

 

[Sensfanman]

Considering the top 7 are his immediate peers, and he's #2 behind Gretzky, it seems apt to me. Datsyuk is not #2 in his era nor does he play against anyone close to Gretzky's level.



Statistically speaking, Datsyuk's leg-up on Savard is that he came into the league at 23 instead of developing in the NHL as a young player.

Marc Savard since age 23: 175-427-602 in 631gp - 0.95 ppg
Pavel Datsyuk since age 23: 221-430-651 in 662gp - 0.98 ppg

Not a significant difference on the statistical level. Again, compare to Francis being a clear-cut #2 behind Gretzky and the point here should be pretty clear. Francis had a similar pedigree in terms of Selke and Byng contention but was a very clear-cut step above Datsyuk offensively no matter how you want to measure it.

Given the top 7 are all from around the same time, perhaps the effect of playing in the 80s is more pronounced than you give credit. Again, you can't acknowledge the bias exists then use historical ranks as justification, it doesn't make sense. Once more, I will re-state that I never said Francis was worse than Datsyuk, 80s bias included.

As for Datsyuk and Savard, it's not like Savard sucked as a kid. Other than his rookie year, he's been quite good. Perhaps Datsyuk wouldn't have turned out so good if he started sooner, maybe he'd be better. Maybe Savard needed some growing pains early to become a premier player, who knows?

I mean, these comparisons are so shallow that they are pretty pointless. We aren't looking at ice time, team mates, competition, etc, etc.

Anyways, I'm just surprised Datsyuk is controversial.

 

[Garfinkel1]

Continue what he's doing. He's one of the most dominate forwards in the game right now. Argue all you want. But When hes on the ice he's a force...Every. Shift.

 

[HOLDITHERE*]

I still don't understand the Datsyuk love around here. What has he REALLY done? Honestly. He's a flashy skater, that's it. His age certainly doesn't help either.

Recreate this this thread when he wins a Hart, a Smythe, or leads the league in scoring. Thanks.

 

[duul]

All that's left for him to do is retire.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Given the top 7 are all from around the same time, perhaps the effect of playing in the 80s is more pronounced than you give credit.

Ok, I will say it again using different words.

Considering the top 7 are all direct peers, just look at the order they finished to see where Francis ranks among his peers. And consider that #1 was Wayne Friggin' Gretzky. Set aside the fact that it's an all-time list, and it still performs the function that you're seeking.

Basically what it means is, in a Gretzky-less league Ron Francis would have been the #1 most productive assist man among his peers. Never mind league history, which unto itself makes anyone a first-ballot lock of epic proportions. He was the Joe Thornton of his era, plus defense, plus Cups, plus being highly respected as a leader, plus playing at a high level for over 20 years and being just shy of a PPG at age 40.

Once more, I will re-state that I never said Francis was worse than Datsyuk, 80s bias included.

And in case it hasn't been made clear enough already, I will re-state that Francis is head, shoulders and nipples over Datsyuk when it comes to HOF consideration. Datsyuk is a controversial choice at age 32; by that time Francis had already put together a worthy profile and was just stacking onto it with consistency and longetivity.

As for Datsyuk and Savard, it's not like Savard sucked as a kid. Other than his rookie year, he's been quite good. Perhaps Datsyuk wouldn't have turned out so good if he started sooner, maybe he'd be better. Maybe Savard needed some growing pains early to become a premier player, who knows?

Regardless of what-ifs, the fact remains that Datsyuk is in the same statistical class as guys like Savard, Brad Richards, and Spezza when it comes to playmaking centers of the last 10 years. With Thornton clearly a notch a head of the pack. That doesn't compare at all to being clearly #2 with Gretzky the only guy ahead.

 

[arrbez]

I think he's established himself at that level, he just needs to add on a few more good seasons. If he retired today, his short career/peak would be a contentious issue (like Lindros, Neely, Bure, etc). If he plays another few seasons at a high level, I don't see anything that would keep him out.

 

[canucksPK]

I'd honestly bet money he'll be in the hof one year

 

[keslerburrows]

Nothing.

 

[ponder]

Longevity IMO. Rack up a couple more 80 point seasons, play till his late 30s, get to around 1000 points, and he's in. He would have a lot of trouble getting in if he retired today, as good as he is we're talking 650 career points, no Hart trophy, no Conn Smythe, no 100 point seasons, no 35 goal seasons, it wouldn't be enough. His incredible 2-way play would get him in with a long career and 1000 points, but as it stands, he has more work to do, the HHOF is about career more than peak.