Speculation: What might Sakic do?

[AMDZen]

I still firmly believe Risto is nothing more than a good PP specialist and mid to bottom pairing offensive dman with serious holes in his game. Not only based on all the numerical data we have on him, but also based on the 30 or so Buf games a year I watch for the past 6 years. He is still young and he could improve to but I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he even comes close to becoming as good as Zads.

There are many players who seem good but are in reality very poor, like Boekder as a more extreme example.

That being said I think both teams are happy with their players and Risto is largely irrelevant to what this thread is trying to accomplish so lets move on.

I also have 0 issue with excluding XPM from any conversations, I am just a personal fan and think they offer good insight into a players play style. (Also claiming a metric is useless based on a single example is asinine and ignorant. Although I do wish they would put out a more general fan friendly explanation to help people better understand the complex metric a tad more). XPM only takes into account 5v5 play and with over half of Risto's points coming on the PP that would be one explanation for his weak showing.

Wow. We all see things through burgundy colored glasses from time to time but this is just, wow.

 

[Meeqs]

Predicting something in hockey is impossible given the fact that it isn't a stop and go sport like baseball, which is what Sabrematicians don't get. Are analytics useful? Yes they are, if you know how to put them in context and combine it with the eye test. Perfect example is the Ristolainen example, when you see him you see he is playing great, moving the puck, generating offense etc, he isn't there yet defensively, but he isn't that bad either and the XPM makes him look like Francois Beauchemin who ironically has better metrics despite the fact that he is far worse than Risto.

The application of the metrics will surely never be as accurate as that of a static sport like baseball but there is no reason to assume we can't create new efficient models to better describe the sport than the rudimentary ones we have used over the past decade. ESPECIALLY if the NHL is able to effectively implement the RFID chips in the pucks and jerseys the potential for data acquisition is insane (which sadly I was unable to hop on board and work on from the ground up, darn you German companies) but I think it is one of the coolest developments in all of sports that we will see over the next 10 years.

XPM takes multiple years of data and in its predictive nature tries to downplay current slumps which is why Beach reads as good as he does. It also does not take into account personal scoring of non- 5v5 play which is why some of Risto's metrics offensively seem low but it also shows his defensive deficiency, which has also been shown in many other metrics for the past few years and isn't unique to XPM. It is similar to many of the more advanced models disliking a player like Russell, even though there are still fans that think he is great.

Its all about the perspective at which you look at a player, and there is no clear cut answer for which is best, they can all be useful to help bounce thoughts and ideas off of to reach a more precise understanding of the true reality of where a player is at.

For example most advanced stats show Redmond and Gelinas as great players, yet when you watch them play, even though their overall game is solid they always seem to make 1-2 dreadful errors per game which kills the team. We can understand why the metrics dont account for these flaws though. So its all about how you use it.

 

[Meeqs]

Wow. We all see things through burgundy colored glasses from time to time but this is just, wow.

My thoughts on two players is not proof of a bias, it is just an opinion. You happening to disagree is not an indication of a flaw in my reasoning in any form.

Many people on this site have wildly different opinions of on players and thats ok. Heck even NHL GM's can be far off in their perception, just look at the Brad Stuart deal.

Hockey is a complex sport and differing views can help us grow as fans by allowing us to challenge our own thoughts but there is no need to be disrespectful whether intentional or not.

If you don't feel the same way then put in the effort to clearly state the reasons why you disagree so we can build a discussion on the topic instead of lazy posts that lead to no where.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Players for sale or rent
We'll retain a hefty percent
We're a team of means by no means
Let's make a deal

 

[AslanRH]

There wont be a better option than Duchene if the Canes are looking for a center. RNH's value is plummeting as no one is looking for an injury prone 3c who makes 6 mil.

I'd argue the Canes would be more attracted to whoever draws the Patrick or Hischier pick than they even would Duchene.

Fresh face + ELC, for a franchise that has a high quality young D-Corps just coming into form, a few quality experienced FWDs who can be that buffer in Staal, Skinner, Rask, and Lindholm and really is just starting to fill out/replace the rest of the forward group with youth.

 

[Meeqs]

I'd argue the Canes would be more attracted to whoever draws the Patrick or Hischier pick than they even would Duchene.

Fresh face + ELC, for a franchise that has a high quality young D-Corps just coming into form, a few quality experienced FWDs who can be that buffer in Staal, Skinner, Rask, and Lindholm and really is just starting to fill out/replace the rest of the forward group with youth.

Thats actually a fair point but funny enough thats very likely to be the Avs or Arz. The Avs would probably want something similar that they would ask for Duchene and I think Arz needs everything to where they probably wouldnt intend to move the pick outside of something ludicrous.

The thought of the Avs moving the pick hasn't been talked about a lot. The top 5 players are 4 centers and a Dman looking to go in the 3rd or 4th pick with only Nolan Patrick listed as possibly being able to play wing which isn't ideal for the Avs already having Nate and Jost.

Wonder if there is a fit there that doesn't quickly come to mind outside of already suggesting moving the first for Drouin.

 

[Meeqs]

Players for sale or rent
We'll retain a hefty percent
We're a team of means by no means
Let's make a deal

Sadly the Avs retained part of Mcleod so they can only retain 2 more players. Assuming 1 will be for Iggy for sure we can only pray someone is daring enough to take Beauch as if the Avs retain less than it will be to buy him out it be great for them.

 

[henchman21]

I'd argue the Canes would be more attracted to whoever draws the Patrick or Hischier pick than they even would Duchene.

Fresh face + ELC, for a franchise that has a high quality young D-Corps just coming into form, a few quality experienced FWDs who can be that buffer in Staal, Skinner, Rask, and Lindholm and really is just starting to fill out/replace the rest of the forward group with youth.

They need to get in the playoffs real soon and starting getting some extra revenue, or that team will be moved (and the front office purged). They won't want to wait ~3 years for a Patrick or Hischier to get to a Duchene level (even if they do).

 

[Pokecheque]

I think the answer to this question is...nothing. Absolutely nothing.

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Players for sale or rent
We'll retain a hefty percent
We're a team of means by no means
Let's make a deal

Ok...now I've got Roger Miller stuck in my head. Well done Bubba!

 

[Bubba Thudd]

Ok...now I've got Roger Miller stuck in my head. Well done Bubba!

I've been waiting for you to read that post. I was honestly thinking about you when i wrote it (and I was laughing inside).

 

[AslanRH]

They need to get in the playoffs real soon and starting getting some extra revenue, or that team will be moved (and the front office purged). They won't want to wait ~3 years for a Patrick or Hischier to get to a Duchene level (even if they do).

I get that, but I'm not convinced that there is an urgency to remain Carolina. Conspiracy Theory/conjecture is all I have to base that on though.

I also agree with many of the Canes posters who feel the risk of Duchene going to free agency is higher there than say if he went to a market like Montreal, Toronto, or even NY or Nashville which may make them shy away from trading a significant player like Hanafin. I could see them push more towards a ROR type package

 

[henchman21]

I get that, but I'm not convinced that there is an urgency to remain Carolina. Conspiracy Theory/conjecture is all I have to base that on though.

I also agree with many of the Canes posters who feel the risk of Duchene going to free agency is higher there than say if he went to a market like Montreal, Toronto, or even NY or Nashville which may make them shy away from trading a significant player like Hanafin. I could see them push more towards a ROR type package

If Carolina moves to Quebec, Quebecor is clearing house. I can guarantee that.

 

[AslanRH]

If Carolina moves to Quebec, Quebecor is clearing house. I can guarantee that.

I think you are right, but I think when Francis gets purged if he continues on the path he's been on of late, he'll get scooped up by another team rather quick for a FO position even without being a minority owner. He's made some pretty shrewd moves the last couple years.

 

[Meeqs]

I get that, but I'm not convinced that there is an urgency to remain Carolina. Conspiracy Theory/conjecture is all I have to base that on though.

I also agree with many of the Canes posters who feel the risk of Duchene going to free agency is higher there than say if he went to a market like Montreal, Toronto, or even NY or Nashville which may make them shy away from trading a significant player like Hanafin. I could see them push more towards a ROR type package

Fans trying to use doomsday scenario's as reasoning behind trades is one of the most foolish and dumbfounded things that happens on this site. You will never get anywhere with the "but what if" line if facile thinking

 

[Meeqs]

They need to get in the playoffs real soon and starting getting some extra revenue, or that team will be moved (and the front office purged). They won't want to wait ~3 years for a Patrick or Hischier to get to a Duchene level (even if they do).

Also to note that Duchene lines up better with windows of Faulk, Staal and Skinner than the pick would.

 

[AslanRH]

Fans trying to use doomsday scenario's as reasoning behind trades is one of the most foolish and dumbfounded things that happens on this site. You will never get anywhere with the "but what if" line if facile thinking

If you are trying to say that Duchene not remaining in Carolina after his deal is a foolish argument and that a small market team wouldn't take that into consideration as part of ROI then we disagree.

I don't think large market teams or perennial playoff teams worry about it as much, but I would hope others do when it comes to a deal involving players of that caliber.

Maybe I'm just a facile thinker though and don't see complexities

 

[Nalens Oga]

So basically the Canes can acquire Duchene and make the playoffs therefore saving them from relocation at least for another year or they can miss the playoffs again and hasten relocation?

Matt Duchene finally has the chance to be a 'franchise player' literally

 

[Meeqs]

So basically the Canes can acquire Duchene and make the playoffs therefore saving them from relocation at least for another year or they can miss the playoffs again and hasten relocation?

Matt Duchene finally has the chance to be a 'franchise player' literally

Nothing about Duchene is a short term move, although Car is already pretty close to contending for the playoffs right now with most of their holes out side of a few high end offensive players being easy to fill.

The relocation argument is a little silly though

 

[JoemAvs]

Nothing about Duchene is a short term move, although Car is already pretty close to contending for the playoffs right now with most of their holes out side of a few high end offensive players being easy to fill.

The relocation argument is a little silly though

Why?

The rumors are swirling around Kamenos wanting to sell / move the team for a while now.

They will only get louder if they miss the playoffs again.


Don't get why it is outlandish to believe that a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 7 years that is by far the leading candidate for relocation (add the rumors about Quebec wanting a team) isn't in danger of losing the team right now?

Forbes has them as the least valuable franchise in the league and they are 30th in attendance with an owner clearly willing to sell.

Really don't get why it is outlandish to say that they desperately need to make the playoffs this season and increase their marketability if they want to fight off those rumors...

 

[AslanRH]

The relocation argument is a little silly though

I wouldn't say that at all.

Besides what Joem said, he just recently settled a lawsuit with his sons that may have pushed him even closer to wanting/needing to sell

 

[UncleRisto]

What might Sakic do?

 

[expatriatedtexan]

Biggest problems are that our players are all paid like top line players. They are also signed to more than one year deals. There simply aren't many buyers looking for top line players with more than a year left on their contracts.

Joe might have the right idea now, but he was wrong by waiting this long. This **** should've come to a boil a long time ago and that is probably another reason why Roy left.

I know it is a dead horse, but I keep coming back to the Avs getting rid of two-way forwards...Stastny for free and ROR being for big Z....I've always said Duchene and MacKinnon were too similar and didn't provide enough to force teams to change their strategies. ROR is a different animal. I would trade either Dutchy or MacK strait up for him today if he and the Sabres were open for it.

The Avs really need a different look on the one line..yes...they need better players surrounding the core but the fact remains...the core is not solid. It's one dimensional and focused on excuses.

 

[Pistache]

Why trade Landeskog? The Avs have several weaknesses.....not just defense.....on defense at least they have prospects.....but on the wings????? We have Landeskog, Rantanen and Greer....that's it.

On the other hand....at center we have MacKinnon, Duchene, Jost, Compher and maybe (if lucky) Nolan Patrick.....we can even add Beaudin. Center is their only position of strength.

In goal they are also very thin.

So basically.....the plan is to trade Duchene for a guy like Hannifin from Carolina....draft hopefully Patrick....play Jost as winger....Compher as third center....and in second round....draft the best goalie available.

 

[CobraAcesS]

What might Sakic do?

Another mistake... Thai food is way better!