Speculation: What might Sakic do?

[the_fan]

Some of y'all dont trust him to pull off a trade but yet trust some implied meaning in his very vague and brief statements. Ok. They've also been trying to "build" through the draft since Sakic took over. I need more than using the word build in a sentence once to believe the mighty Avalanche has accepted a rebuild.

Well, it's no secret that they are looking for a top young d-man, which means either #1 or #2, if not trading Duchene or Landeskog for one, how else can they find that top 2 young d-man?

It's either has to come through a big trade, or they have to tank next season and draft Dahlin. The question is, which one is more likely, trade or tank? Keep in mind that finishing last wont guarantee #1 pick.

The only way i see it is trading Duchene or Landeskog or both, and if they do that, that's pretty much rebuilding isn't it?

 

[Foppberg]

I'm having dreams of Julien + Treliving on the Avs.. But 99% chance it never happens.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Well, it's no secret that they are looking for a top young d-man, which means either #1 or #2, if not trading Duchene or Landeskog for one, how else can they find that top 2 young d-man?

It's either has to come through a big trade, or they have to tank next season and draft Dahlin. The question is, which one is more likely, trade or tank? Keep in mind that finishing last wont guarantee #1 pick.

The only way i see it is trading Duchene or Landeskog or both, and if they do that, that's pretty much rebuilding isn't it?

Both, yes. But trading Duchene and getting a NHL or NHL ready player back doesn't exactly mean that.

 

[dahrougem2]

What exactly is so good about Brad Treliving?

 

[Ivan13]

What exactly is so good about Brad Treliving?

I don't get it either.

 

[Meeqs]

I'm having dreams of Julien + Treliving on the Avs.. But 99% chance it never happens.

With their current roster it really doesn't matter who the coach is. Also I'm a huge fan of Julien, but Treliving.......

 

[Meeqs]

Some of y'all dont trust him to pull off a trade but yet trust some implied meaning in his very vague and brief statements. Ok. They've also been trying to "build" through the draft since Sakic took over. I need more than using the word build in a sentence once to believe the mighty Avalanche has accepted a rebuild.

I think the factors that go into what they are trying to say is:

1) that because Sakic has greatly helped the Avs drafting issues since he took over a large percentage of the talent on the team and in the system is 22 and younger.

and

2) When you look at what Sakic was able to do with the RoR deal and how much it was able to fill other holes in the roster, essentially getting Zads, Compher, Greer and Grigs for him and Mcginn, it isn't surprising that he may look into if a similar deal would be out there for Gabe or Duchene.

This is excluding the people who dont have much knowledge of the complexities and limitations of what teams are able to realistically do to improve in the NHL right now and just want to "blow it up" for the sake of doing so because they don't hold any real solutions to help cope with the frustration brought along by this season.

Personally I would only consider it a "rebuild" if they moved both Gabe and Duchene (and should that happen most likely also EJ) but even in that case it would be more accurate to call it a "retool"(like the actual retool, and not the kind teams use when they dont want to rebuild even though they should to keep ticket sales high for as long as possible) because the trades should in theory net the Avs the pieces they need to move forward.

 

[the_fan]

Both, yes. But trading Duchene and getting a NHL or NHL ready player back doesn't exactly mean that.

Duchene one for one traded for NHL ready D wont mean rebuild, but Duchene alone wont be enough to get an established NHL top 2 d-man, it can get you another Zadorov type maybe, which means it's a prospect, and it's a rebuild. Giving up NHL established player for prospect is rebuilding.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Duchene one for one traded for NHL ready D wont mean rebuild, but Duchene alone wont be enough to get an established NHL top 2 d-man, it can get you another Zadorov type maybe, which means it's a prospect, and it's a rebuild. Giving up NHL established player for prospect is rebuilding.

Should have told them that when they made the ROR deal and still thought they could compete

 

[Bender]

I'm not so sure they knew going in this wasn't a playoff team. I know there was that rumor about what Sakic said about it being a transition year but that also came out well after the bottom had fallen out. Plugging holes with vets is what they've done the last few years and expected better results, not sure why this year would be any different.

I'm really curious how they view next year and this whole process. Are they really resigned to not making the playoffs for a few years through a rebuild? I'm not so sure.

I'm not so sure either.

I'm a big fan of a kid like Hanifin but I just watched another Hurricanes game the other night and he's really, really GREEN. In my opinion, he looks like he's another 2 or maybe even 3 years until we see the type of development we're currently seeing with Zadorov. That's a long time to wait and IF that kind of move is made then I have to believe that Sakic will make ANOTHER move to bring in a solid yet not over-the-hill veteran on the left side, just to give Hanifin a chance to get there gradually instead of being thrown in the fire. I don't think that having 22 year old Zadorov and 20 year old Hanifin in the Top-4 on the left side is a recipe for success anytime soon, especially when you consider that guy on the bottom pairing next year could very well be 22 year old Chris Bigras.

So while that kind of thing might be the plan and might happen, I don't think it's the way it's going to go.

If Sakic is ready to move some of his best players, I don't think that he's willing to:

A) Gamble too much on the return and will want a known component
B) Wait patiently another 2-3 years through all the growing pains for the young stud to mature and move this team forward.

I think for us to move Duchene and/or Landeskog before the TD, the deals would need to be spectacular. Teams trying to bring in these guys for the playoff runs would likely be unwilling to move important parts of their team and would offer more 'futures-based' packages, which are riskier. I'm thinking both stay put.

I think having Duchene 'available' is good in that it keeps teams circling back to Colorado and opens up dialogue on other guys.

So I see the plan like this :

1) Move out every possible UFA and even players with term that don't fit into the future
2) Bring up Compher, Greer, Bigras and even Siemens to see what kind of impact they can have on the team for the last 20 or so games remaining
2) Try and use the expansion draft to improve the team with players who are going to be unprotected (Avs will have 1 or 2 open slots depending on how the TD shakes out)
3) Cross your fingers on the draft lottery. A top-2 pick gives you different options than if you are set to draft at #3 or #4, in my opinion.
4) Make the necessary moves at the draft to improve the team

I think I could see Duchene moved at the draft, if the Avs are set to draft Hischier or Patrick. If we are going to draft at #3 or #4, the Avs might prefer to hang on to him. Sadly the time to trade Duchene appears to have arrived, I once thought that there was a chance he'd have the ability to put the team on his back and take his play up a notch but that hasn't happened, I guess it's just not part of his makeup. He's a really good player though, he's just not that guy...at least not on the Avs.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think for us to move Duchene and/or Landeskog before the TD, the deals would need to be spectacular. Teams trying to bring in these guys for the playoff runs would likely be unwilling to move important parts of their team and would offer more 'futures-based' packages, which are riskier. I'm thinking both stay put.

Teams are more desperate at the deadline. I agree they won't give up a key piece of their team but will be more willing to give up a top prospect in a win now move. So I guess it depends on what they can get. I also agree that Sakic is going to want a NHL player back in some capacity.

 

[Bender]

Teams are more desperate at the deadline. I agree they won't give up a key piece of their team but will be more willing to give up a top prospect in a win now move. So I guess it depends on what they can get. I also agree that Sakic is going to want a NHL player back in some capacity.

True but I don't think Sakic will bite unless there is a lot more coming and then that GM will say "What?! You want MORE on top of _____________?!!?, you're crazy!"

But he would be right to ask for a lot more...I remember not that long ago when people on this very board were suggesting we trade ROR for a package that included Brendan Gormley as the main piece. How much of a frickin' disaster would that have been?!!?

 

[Meeqs]

True but I don't think Sakic will bite unless there is a lot more coming and then that GM will say "What?! You want MORE on top of _____________?!!?, you're crazy!"

But he would be right to ask for a lot more...I remember not that long ago when people on this very board were suggesting we trade ROR for a package that included Brendan Gormley as the main piece. How much of a frickin' disaster would that have been?!!?

Ha Devils fans were convinced Gelinas was the perfect piece going back to the Avs as well. Its pretty crazy what two years of hindsight will produce on these boards.

 

[Meeqs]

I'm not so sure either.

I'm a big fan of a kid like Hanifin but I just watched another Hurricanes game the other night and he's really, really GREEN. In my opinion, he looks like he's another 2 or maybe even 3 years until we see the type of development we're currently seeing with Zadorov. That's a long time to wait and IF that kind of move is made then I have to believe that Sakic will make ANOTHER move to bring in a solid yet not over-the-hill veteran on the left side, just to give Hanifin a chance to get there gradually instead of being thrown in the fire. I don't think that having 22 year old Zadorov and 20 year old Hanifin in the Top-4 on the left side is a recipe for success anytime soon, especially when you consider that guy on the bottom pairing next year could very well be 22 year old Chris Bigras.

So while that kind of thing might be the plan and might happen, I don't think it's the way it's going to go.

If Sakic is ready to move some of his best players, I don't think that he's willing to:

A) Gamble too much on the return and will want a known component
B) Wait patiently another 2-3 years through all the growing pains for the young stud to mature and move this team forward.

I think for us to move Duchene and/or Landeskog before the TD, the deals would need to be spectacular. Teams trying to bring in these guys for the playoff runs would likely be unwilling to move important parts of their team and would offer more 'futures-based' packages, which are riskier. I'm thinking both stay put.

I think having Duchene 'available' is good in that it keeps teams circling back to Colorado and opens up dialogue on other guys.

So I see the plan like this :

1) Move out every possible UFA and even players with term that don't fit into the future
2) Bring up Compher, Greer, Bigras and even Siemens to see what kind of impact they can have on the team for the last 20 or so games remaining
2) Try and use the expansion draft to improve the team with players who are going to be unprotected (Avs will have 1 or 2 open slots depending on how the TD shakes out)
3) Cross your fingers on the draft lottery. A top-2 pick gives you different options than if you are set to draft at #3 or #4, in my opinion.
4) Make the necessary moves at the draft to improve the team

I think I could see Duchene moved at the draft, if the Avs are set to draft Hischier or Patrick. If we are going to draft at #3 or #4, the Avs might prefer to hang on to him. Sadly the time to trade Duchene appears to have arrived, I once thought that there was a chance he'd have the ability to put the team on his back and take his play up a notch but that hasn't happened, I guess it's just not part of his makeup. He's a really good player though, he's just not that guy...at least not on the Avs.

Hanifins numbers definitely support your observation.

Also the Avs biggest issue with the Draft is all the top picks are centers. I've read in a few spots Partick can play RW but to what extent I couldn't tell you. So that along with Jost and the massive need for Defense is really what puts Duchene being in the prime of his career in a weird spot. If you look at it from a logical perspective there is a lot of sense to looking for a move there but god damn if it doesn't tear you up thinking about moving a heart and soul guy who has always put the team first, gives it everything he has on a nightly basis and very likely wants to be part of the solution here in Colorado.

 

[JoemAvs]

I'm not so sure either.

I'm a big fan of a kid like Hanifin but I just watched another Hurricanes game the other night and he's really, really GREEN. In my opinion, he looks like he's another 2 or maybe even 3 years until we see the type of development we're currently seeing with Zadorov. That's a long time to wait and IF that kind of move is made then I have to believe that Sakic will make ANOTHER move to bring in a solid yet not over-the-hill veteran on the left side, just to give Hanifin a chance to get there gradually instead of being thrown in the fire. I don't think that having 22 year old Zadorov and 20 year old Hanifin in the Top-4 on the left side is a recipe for success anytime soon, especially when you consider that guy on the bottom pairing next year could very well be 22 year old Chris Bigras.

So while that kind of thing might be the plan and might happen, I don't think it's the way it's going to go.

If Sakic is ready to move some of his best players, I don't think that he's willing to:

A) Gamble too much on the return and will want a known component
B) Wait patiently another 2-3 years through all the growing pains for the young stud to mature and move this team forward.

I think for us to move Duchene and/or Landeskog before the TD, the deals would need to be spectacular. Teams trying to bring in these guys for the playoff runs would likely be unwilling to move important parts of their team and would offer more 'futures-based' packages, which are riskier. I'm thinking both stay put.

I think having Duchene 'available' is good in that it keeps teams circling back to Colorado and opens up dialogue on other guys.

So I see the plan like this :

1) Move out every possible UFA and even players with term that don't fit into the future
2) Bring up Compher, Greer, Bigras and even Siemens to see what kind of impact they can have on the team for the last 20 or so games remaining
2) Try and use the expansion draft to improve the team with players who are going to be unprotected (Avs will have 1 or 2 open slots depending on how the TD shakes out)
3) Cross your fingers on the draft lottery. A top-2 pick gives you different options than if you are set to draft at #3 or #4, in my opinion.
4) Make the necessary moves at the draft to improve the team

I think I could see Duchene moved at the draft, if the Avs are set to draft Hischier or Patrick. If we are going to draft at #3 or #4, the Avs might prefer to hang on to him. Sadly the time to trade Duchene appears to have arrived, I once thought that there was a chance he'd have the ability to put the team on his back and take his play up a notch but that hasn't happened, I guess it's just not part of his makeup. He's a really good player though, he's just not that guy...at least not on the Avs.

I disagree with the bolded.
I mean I agree with you that he is very green and will take a few years before he will be a real impact player for any team (2-3 years sounds right until he is really ready for a toppairing role) but I really don't agree that he will need 2-3 years until he plays like Zads right now.

I would argue he is pretty much on par with him at this moment. Don't get me wrong. Zads has shown very encouraging signs but lets not act like he wouldn't get benched each other game for a team trying to win because of the mistakes he still makes. The penalties and game losing turnovers usually get young players benched.
That is why Hanifin was sitting a few games ago because he had a pretty bad game.

Avs can afford to have Zads play through his mistakes right now but I really don't think that the difference between the two is all that huge right now. Zads might be a bit further along but the difference is certainly not huge.

If you trade Duchene for Hanifin, you basically accept that the Avs won't be good next season either with Bigras, Hanifin and Zads being way too young basically to have any success.

But that would be ok by me. Avs shouldn't try to rush it anyways and accept that this is not a 1 year fix.

And lets not act like young bluelines don't have success across the league right now.

Carolina has Slavin - Pesce as their go to pairing right now. Both are 22.

Werenski - Jones has CBJ in the playoffs. One is 19 and the other is 22.

Lindholm has been the #1 guy for Anaheim for quite some time now and he is only 23.

Shattenkirk will be gone from the Blues because of Parayko who just turned 23.

Provorov at age 19 is already by far the best D for Philly.

Carlo leads Boston in ice time.



I really don't see why the Avs couldn't just roll with:

Zads/Hanifin - EJ
Hanifin/Zads - Barrie
Bigras - Mironov/Beauch


Is that crazy young? Sure. But the right side should have enough experience (Mironov captained his team in the KHL as well and has seen plenty international action) to help the kids get through their growing pains..


Gives us a high pick in 2018 as well and a very, very bright future.

Really don't think Sakic should block one of those guys just to get a safer option for next year on the roster. Especially if it costs you a guy like Landeskog...

 

[Bender]

I disagree with the bolded.
I mean I agree with you that he is very green and will take a few years before he will be a real impact player for any team (2-3 years sounds right until he is really ready for a toppairing role) but I really don't agree that he will need 2-3 years until he plays like Zads right now.

I would argue he is pretty much on par with him at this moment. Don't get me wrong. Zads has shown very encouraging signs but lets not act like he wouldn't get benched each other game for a team trying to win because of the mistakes he still makes. The penalties and game losing turnovers usually get young players benched.
That is why Hanifin was sitting a few games ago because he had a pretty bad game.

Avs can afford to have Zads play through his mistakes right now but I really don't think that the difference between the two is all that huge right now. Zads might be a bit further along but the difference is certainly not huge.

If you trade Duchene for Hanifin, you basically accept that the Avs won't be good next season either with Bigras, Hanifin and Zads being way too young basically to have any success.

But that would be ok by me. Avs shouldn't try to rush it anyways and accept that this is not a 1 year fix.

And lets not act like young bluelines don't have success across the league right now.

Carolina has Slavin - Pesce as their go to pairing right now. Both are 22.

Werenski - Jones has CBJ in the playoffs. One is 19 and the other is 22.

Lindholm has been the #1 guy for Anaheim for quite some time now and he is only 23.

Shattenkirk will be gone from the Blues because of Parayko who just turned 23.

Provorov at age 19 is already by far the best D for Philly.

Carlo leads Boston in ice time.



I really don't see why the Avs couldn't just roll with:

Zads/Hanifin - EJ
Hanifin/Zads - Barrie
Bigras - Mironov/Beauch


Is that crazy young? Sure. But the right side should have enough experience (Mironov captained his team in the KHL as well and has seen plenty international action) to help the kids get through their growing pains..


Gives us a high pick in 2018 as well and a very, very bright future.

Really don't think Sakic should block one of those guys just to get a safer option for next year on the roster. Especially if it costs you a guy like Landeskog...

I disagree with you on the first bolded. I think Zadorov is quite a bit ahead of Hanifin right now. As far as being benched for his mistakes on a contending team, I think it depends on how you view it. If Zadorov had been a rookie on the Blues and brought along slowly, perhaps sure, he still makes his share of mistakes but also maybe the puck doesn't always end up in the back of the net when it happens. Maybe then the current-day Zadorov is playing with a hell of a lot more confidence knowing he's got a partner that can back him up when he does screw up. Just a thought.

Agree with the 2nd bolded and IF such a strategy were adopted, that's what it would mean...I just don't think they will go that way.

As far as the examples above :

Slavin is playing the most minutes but Pesce is #4 in TOI (either just even strength or overall). While it's a good example of young players making an impact and the 'Canes were playing some great hockey recently, they aren't without their share of issues in more recent games. That team has veteran Ron Hainsey as LD in their Top-4 as far as minutes played.

Werenski and Jones - Seth Jones is a franchise d-man and Werenski is a rookie playing some fantastic hockey but he's still 4th most TOI per game (either just even strength or overall). That team has veteran JMFJ as LD in their Top-4 as far as minutes played.

Parayko is clearly being used as a #3 and is the perfect example. The Blues brought him along as part of one of the best defenses in the NHL (certainly Top-5) and now he's firmly in that spot. I truly believe that if Parayko had been a rookie with the Avs, he would be nowhere near as good or as confident as he is right now due to lack of insulation...which is my overall point.

I think if you try to find a team that has 3 defenders all 23 years old and younger all the on the same side, you'll be hard-pressed to do that. Teams just don't bring young players along in that manner.