Speculation: What might Sakic do?

[the_fan]

The Top10 will be amazing. Yes Dahlin will probably go #1 but the last place team has only a 18 % chance of getting him anyways.

Svechnikov is not far behind Dahlin and projects to be the next big thing out of Russia (currently has 32 points in 25 games in the USHL (!) in his draft -1 year). He should be an elite winger.

Veleno (got exceptional status like McDavid back then) is at PPG in the Q in his draft-1 year and projects to be a #1 C.

Then you also have guys like McIsaac, Boqvist, Merkley, Wilde and a few more that all look like they have legit #1 potential on D.

And a crapload of good forwards as well. Khovanov, MacDonald, Groulx, Levin , etc. all look very good right now.


Half of those guys will probably not live up to the hype next year but the top10 should still be amazing.


Looks like a draft where you can get a guy like Rantanen at #10.

So does not really matter what you need.

This is why you don't trade Duchene and Landeskog right now. This team can't look at fixing things right away and rush into big trades. There are so many evaluations to be made, now and future.

Looking at up coming draft, where the team is, what they will draft. Then seeing where they will be next year, if another last place finish or bottom 5 finish, then what players can they potentially draft in a better draft, because 18 draft will be deeper than 17.

Just so many things to consider before trading guys like Duchene or Landeskog. I know that they definitely can't trade Duchene or Landeskog during this season.

Lets face it. This teams needs offense, defense and goalie. They also need 3rd 4th lines, so basically they need everything. Rushing into trades right now wont be the answer.

The best thing they can do this season is try to get rid of more older players, like Iginla, Beauchemin etc...

 

[JoemAvs]

This is why you don't trade Duchene and Landeskog right now. This team can't look at fixing things right away and rush into big trades. There are so many evaluations to be made, now and future.

Looking at up coming draft, where the team is, what they will draft. Then seeing where they will be next year, if another last place finish or bottom 5 finish, then what players can they potentially draft in a better draft, because 18 draft will be deeper than 17.

Just so many things to consider before trading guys like Duchene or Landeskog. I know that they definitely can't trade Duchene or Landeskog during this season.

Lets face it. This teams needs offense, defense and goalie. They also need 3rd 4th lines, so basically they need everything. Rushing into trades right now wont be the answer.

The best thing they can do this season is try to get rid of more older players, like Iginla, Beauchemin etc...

Why not?

I mean of course they shouldn't rush into anything. That would be dumb.

But I don't see any harm in trading one of Duchene or Landeskog right now if the offer is good enough.

A D picked in 2018 will probably not reach his full potential before the 2020-21 season so projecting them to fill a hole that exists in 2017-18 is a bit premature...

This team needs first and foremost defense.

Look at the core.

We have a #1 C in Mac, another #1 C in Duchene, two topline wingers with Rantanen and Landeskog and a highly touted C/W prospect developing in college as well as plenty of depth coming up (Compher, Morrison, Greer, Beaudin).

On the backend we have an 29 year old, injury prone #1/2 guy and a 25 year old #2/3 guy. Both can't play together.

We also have another potential #2 in Zadorov who is a major project right now and is no guarantee to turn into anything as well as two guys with top4 potential coming up.


What we are really missing is a young, potential #1 D. Zads might surprise us all and become that but right now I doubt it. Even if he does , we could use one more of those.

Trading from a position of strength (C or W) for a clear position of need (EJ won't be a #1/2 when Mac and the other young guys are ready to compete) makes sense.

Especially when it helps prevent watching another trainwreck on the blueline next season...

 

[Hockeypete49]

Flyer's fan here and I come in piece. Why is Landeskog's name being tossed around being traded so much? There must be a reason he is not an "untouchable" unless the fan base think he will fetch a king's ransom. Anyway just curious cause he is one young man who I always thought would look good in Orange and Black. Anyway good luck this season, I know my Flyers are going to need it.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Flyer's fan here and I come in piece. Why is Landeskog's name being tossed around being traded so much? There must be a reason he is not an "untouchable" unless the fan base think he will fetch a king's ransom. Anyway just curious cause he is one young man who I always thought would look good in Orange and Black. Anyway good luck this season, I know my Flyers are going to need it.

That's basically why. There's nothing wrong with him. He could stand to shoot the puck more but it's not about him why he's being shopped. It's more that the Avs haven't built anything and are very asset poor and pretty much need to start over. If he sticks around great, he's on a very nice contract too.

 

[the_fan]

Why not?

I mean of course they shouldn't rush into anything. That would be dumb.

But I don't see any harm in trading one of Duchene or Landeskog right now if the offer is good enough.

A D picked in 2018 will probably not reach his full potential before the 2020-21 season so projecting them to fill a hole that exists in 2017-18 is a bit premature...

This team needs first and foremost defense.

Look at the core.

We have a #1 C in Mac, another #1 C in Duchene, two topline wingers with Rantanen and Landeskog and a highly touted C/W prospect developing in college as well as plenty of depth coming up (Compher, Morrison, Greer, Beaudin).

On the backend we have an 29 year old, injury prone #1/2 guy and a 25 year old #2/3 guy. Both can't play together.

We also have another potential #2 in Zadorov who is a major project right now and is no guarantee to turn into anything as well as two guys with top4 potential coming up.


What we are really missing is a young, potential #1 D. Zads might surprise us all and become that but right now I doubt it. Even if he does , we could use one more of those.

Trading from a position of strength (C or W) for a clear position of need (EJ won't be a #1/2 when Mac and the other young guys are ready to compete) makes sense.

Especially when it helps prevent watching another trainwreck on the blueline next season...

But why not wait until after the draft to make a trade instead of right now? The picture will be little bit clearer after the draft.

 

[JoemAvs]

But why not wait until after the draft to make a trade instead of right now? The picture will be little bit clearer after the draft.

Because a team like Carolina which are my favorite trade partner by far right now could really use Duchene now for the stretch run.

So they might be more inclined to make a deal right now than in the offseason and give up more value for that extra playoff run.

It IMO does not really matter what we do at the draft.

Sakic wants to reboot this thing and most likely atleast one of Landy or Duchene are on their way out no matter what.

If you can get what you want (LHD with #1 potential) for Duchene (or Landy) right now, why wait and risk that the deal won't be there in the offseason?


It is not like it would be a bad thing for once to have too many good, young Ds.


I would love that.

Trading good Ds for Fs is always easier than the other way around and the Avs will have a solid forward core to build around no matter what they do. Mac, Rantanen and Jost is plenty for the start of a rebuild. Have to spend our capspace in the future somewhere anyways and 2nd line wingers are way easier to find in UFA than good top4 Ds.

 

[the_fan]

Because a team like Carolina which are my favorite trade partner by far right now could really use Duchene now for the stretch run.

So they might be more inclined to make a deal right now than in the offseason and give up more value for that extra playoff run.

It IMO does not really matter what we do at the draft.

Sakic wants to reboot this thing and most likely atleast one of Landy or Duchene are on their way out no matter what.

If you can get what you want (LHD with #1 potential) for Duchene now, why wait and risk that the deal won't be there in the offseason?


It is not like it would be a bad thing for once to have too many good, young Ds.

I would love that.

Trading good Ds for Fs is always easier than the other way around...

Yeah if Canes or some other team gets desperate right now and gives what Sakic wants which supposedly alot, then he should do it, otherwise just keep waiting and see what's available in the off season

 

[Tralfamadore]

Wasn't it said a little while back that Sakic will be stepping down at the end of this season if the Avs didn't make the playoffs?

If I had to guess, I think Sakic won't make a move unless it's an absolute overpayment for one of the available core players. He'll allow the new GM to step in and make the actual moves for the rebuild/retool.

 

[RockLobster]

But why not wait until after the draft to make a trade instead of right now? The picture will be little bit clearer after the draft.

While everyone talks about "having more teams to trade with", is that REALLY the case?

If the Avs have a target of the type of package they want, they're going to know which teams are in position to pay that, case in point: Carolina. Now, Carolina may want to bolster their Center depth, if the Avs wait until the offseason, then they're risking a really great fit for a trade being able to talk to other teams about a Center (RNH from Edmonton, for example).

Basically, while there can be advantages to waiting until the offseason, there are also drawbacks--they can risk a team that they may have on the hook now deciding to go the "cheaper acquisition" route.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Wasn't it said a little while back that Sakic will be stepping down at the end of this season if the Avs didn't make the playoffs?

If I had to guess, I think Sakic won't make a move unless it's an absolute overpayment for one of the available core players. He'll allow the new GM to step in and make the actual moves for the rebuild/retool.

Yes, but now he has pretty much directly told the Denver Post that he plans on staying. They asked him a question eluding to him leaving, and he said he enjoys the job and is committed to the rebuild.

It's possible he changed his mind, and wants to try building the team instead of taking over and just trying to get it past the last hurdle of contention, which seemed to be their focus for the last three years instead of 'building'.

 

[McMetal]

Flyer's fan here and I come in piece. Why is Landeskog's name being tossed around being traded so much? There must be a reason he is not an "untouchable" unless the fan base think he will fetch a king's ransom. Anyway just curious cause he is one young man who I always thought would look good in Orange and Black. Anyway good luck this season, I know my Flyers are going to need it.

We need a #1D in the worst way, and some people think the only way to get one is to trade Landy or Duchene. I think neither will be enough to get what we want, so Sakic will probably hang onto them both. Besides, Philly would be a poor trading partner for us. If Provorov and Ghost are untouchable (as they should be) there's not much you guys have that we'd want.

 

[JoemAvs]

We need a #1D in the worst way, and some people think the only way to get one is to trade Landy or Duchene. I think neither will be enough to get what we want, so Sakic will probably hang onto them both. Besides, Philly would be a poor trading partner for us. If Provorov and Ghost are untouchable (as they should be) there's not much you guys have that we'd want.

Ghost hasn't been good this year. People have soured on him.

He also is not a #1 D.

He is basically a left-handed Barrie with maybe a slightly better defensive game (maybe).

 

[McMetal]

Ghost hasn't been good this year. People have soured on him.

He also is not a #1 D.

He is basically a left-handed Barrie with maybe a slightly better defensive game (maybe).

He's still young enough that I have hopes that last season wasn't a fluke, and that he can round out his game. Barrie pretty much is what he is.

But I agree, he's not the type of D we should hope for from a core player trade.

 

[Meeqs]

I've already said in another thread that I want the Avs to do this next retool/rebuild properly which means fixing the D first and then worry about the FWDs as dmen take longer to develop. That is why I don't have a problem trading both Duchene and Landy as long as the D is taking care of once the deals are done.

With that being said the question is what would Avs fans be happy with regarding the returns as far as the D is concerned? Do we all want two potential #1s coming back (one in each trade)? One #1 and a #2? etc. Of course it also depends of the rest of the return. For example if we are happy with a #1 and #2 coming back than the other piece(s) in the #2 trade will have to be pretty good.

Just like everybody else here I've been thinking about this quite a bit and what if we get two #2s back instead? Before everybody get their gun out to shoot me, let's think about it for a minute. We already have EJ and Z. I think it is fair to say that EJ is a weak #1/strong #2. I think we all agree that Z should also become a weak #1/strong #2 at the very least. I think he has showed enough in the past month to become that with still potential to become an average #1 as well. Now let's say we get two more #2s with hopefully one of them having at least potential to become a weak #1 as well. Would it be that bad if our D now includes at the very least four #2s with three of them being strong #2s? Wouldn't it be better as we would have a much better balanced D unit?

An advantage would be that if one goes down with injury we still have other guys to step in to take on the slack. Another advantage would also be that the other pieces coming back in these trades would also be much better and therefore help fixing the FWDs as well much quicker.

Keep in mind that in this scenario we still have Barrie and Bigras on our bottom pair who both can step in the top-4 if needed. We could afford to take our time to trade Barrie for FWD help which along with guys like Mack, Rant, Jost, top-4 pick this year, at least two other very good pieces from the trades, Greer, Compher, Beaudin etc. would give us a very very good FWD group in the near future.

Getting a #1 is extremely difficult even with established guys like Matty and Landy so why not go for a much balanced option instead and get better secondary and tertiary pieces which would help everywhere in the lineup as well? Everybody wants an "almost" sure fire #1 in one of the deals but that is impossible to predict anyway. I'm ok if the two guys are at least #2s considering what we already have and help fix other issues as well. Even if one only becomes a #3 we would still have a very strong D unit.

Possible candidates:
LHD: Hanifin, Slavin (unlikely), Chabot, Sergy, Muzzin, DeHann, Beaulieu
RHD: Carlo, McAvoy, Pesce, Faulk, Hamonic, Ceci, Vatanen

I am sure there are other #2s we could target but these are the ones that come to mind as I am typing this.

The problem with Muzzin is of course his age but he would help bring the other kids along. Same can be said about Hamonic and Faulk. The other problem with Muzzin is that the other pieces from LA are not very attractive. Even a #1 could get much worst with Landy in their lineup. In the case of DeHann, Vatanen, Beaulieu and Ceci the ++s would need to be great to compensate as they are closer to #4s then #3s.

Anyway just another way to look at it.

The Avs realize they need to fix their D before they can do anything else and trading Duchene or Gabe is really the only avenue outside of D&D which may take far too long. However you only move them if you can get a young top 4 dman. If there is any risk with that dman then you would need to add to that. So the 2 big factors are high end potential and reliability.

Barrie is surely a top 4 Dman and is truly elite in his transition game. There is the possiblity that Bednars system is not a good fit for him to truly utilize his skillset and if the Avs determine that is the case then they should look into possibly moving him as well but that would most likely be a conversation for a later date.

As for Dmen. Muzzin and Hamonic are too old. Beaulieu, Ceci and De Haan are a combo of a bit too old and not good enough.

I think the teams that make the most sense are Bos and Ana for Gabe and Car and MTL For Duchene.

 

[Meeqs]

We need a #1D in the worst way, and some people think the only way to get one is to trade Landy or Duchene. I think neither will be enough to get what we want, so Sakic will probably hang onto them both. Besides, Philly would be a poor trading partner for us. If Provorov and Ghost are untouchable (as they should be) there's not much you guys have that we'd want.

Everyone has such a vague view on what a #1 means. Most of the time it isn't the best 30 dmen, and is a terrible way to try and base a conversation on because the parameters are not clearly defined.

Also having good depth is far more important than having a great top pairing guy, because as good as he is, if the other team can exploit match up issues it is a bigger detriment and factor to the outcome of a series that HOW good your best Dman is, they just have to be good enough.

Philly is a poor partner as they don't need anything really enough to move Provorov and Ghost is redundant as long as the Avs have Barrie. There MAY be a package involving Sanheim that could get Gabe but I am not 100% sold on the idea.

 

[Meeqs]

While everyone talks about "having more teams to trade with", is that REALLY the case?

If the Avs have a target of the type of package they want, they're going to know which teams are in position to pay that, case in point: Carolina. Now, Carolina may want to bolster their Center depth, if the Avs wait until the offseason, then they're risking a really great fit for a trade being able to talk to other teams about a Center (RNH from Edmonton, for example).

Basically, while there can be advantages to waiting until the offseason, there are also drawbacks--they can risk a team that they may have on the hook now deciding to go the "cheaper acquisition" route.

There wont be a better option than Duchene if the Canes are looking for a center. RNH's value is plummeting as no one is looking for an injury prone 3c who makes 6 mil.

The benefit for other teams to go for TDL is that Gabe or Duchene could help immensely in a playoff run as long as they could make the cap work. Also certain players maybe available due to the ED. Outside of knowing the exact location of draft picks and the players who may be available I'm not so sure it would be better in the summer.

 

[Meeqs]

This is why you don't trade Duchene and Landeskog right now. This team can't look at fixing things right away and rush into big trades. There are so many evaluations to be made, now and future.

Looking at up coming draft, where the team is, what they will draft. Then seeing where they will be next year, if another last place finish or bottom 5 finish, then what players can they potentially draft in a better draft, because 18 draft will be deeper than 17.

Just so many things to consider before trading guys like Duchene or Landeskog. I know that they definitely can't trade Duchene or Landeskog during this season.

Lets face it. This teams needs offense, defense and goalie. They also need 3rd 4th lines, so basically they need everything. Rushing into trades right now wont be the answer.

The best thing they can do this season is try to get rid of more older players, like Iginla, Beauchemin etc...

The Avs haven't started drafting well until about 3 years ago. Most of the new players coming in are around the Age of Nate and the Avs wont be a contender while Duchene is in his prime which is right now.

They also need 1-2 more top 4 dmen that are the same age as the core and Landeskog could also help do that.

 

[Meeqs]

This is 100% the truth. Last year it was the HERO chart, this year the XPM.

XPM is still in its early stages and could very well still have a way to go but WAR models have been successful in other sports and eventually I would expect to see a at least somewhat sound model in the next 5 years.

HERO charts as well as WOWY charts just show how a player does in relation to the rest of the league and there really isn't much there that could be questioned.

 

[Meeqs]

Add Drouin to the list of NHL players Sakic would probably target.

He would be so difficult to get but if I am Sakic I would offer the #1OA pick for him in hopes SY takes it for cap reasons.

There was also the EJ rumor but honestly with how he has played for TBL this year unless he has crazy contract demands the chances of him being moved are slim to none.

 

[AMDZen]

XPM is still in its early stages and could very well still have a way to go but WAR models have been successful in other sports and eventually I would expect to see a at least somewhat sound model in the next 5 years.

HERO charts as well as WOWY charts just show how a player does in relation to the rest of the league and there really isn't much there that could be questioned.

Except its pretty much already proven to be worthless at least in this first example you gave. Ristolainen is a very good player and you can see it from a mile away just watching him play. He appears to have a super high ceiling too, and will soon be among the best young defenders in the game. We all love Zads but Risto is actually quite a bit better.

 

[McMetal]

He would be so difficult to get but if I am Sakic I would offer the #1OA pick for him in hopes SY takes it for cap reasons.

I love the idea of Drouin on this team, but Patrick for him? Not sure I could stomach that. A big two-way center is so, so much more valuable from a team-building perspective.

 

[Meeqs]

Except its pretty much already proven to be worthless at least in this first example you gave. Ristolainen is a very good player and you can see it from a mile away just watching him play. He appears to have a super high ceiling too, and will soon be among the best young defenders in the game. We all love Zads but Risto is actually quite a bit better.

I still firmly believe Risto is nothing more than a good PP specialist and mid to bottom pairing offensive dman with serious holes in his game. Not only based on all the numerical data we have on him, but also based on the 30 or so Buf games a year I watch for the past 6 years. He is still young and he could improve to but I will be absolutely SHOCKED if he even comes close to becoming as good as Zads.

There are many players who seem good but are in reality very poor, like Boekder as a more extreme example.

That being said I think both teams are happy with their players and Risto is largely irrelevant to what this thread is trying to accomplish so lets move on.

I also have 0 issue with excluding XPM from any conversations, I am just a personal fan and think they offer good insight into a players play style. (Also claiming a metric is useless based on a single example is asinine and ignorant. Although I do wish they would put out a more general fan friendly explanation to help people better understand the complex metric a tad more). XPM only takes into account 5v5 play and with over half of Risto's points coming on the PP that would be one explanation for his weak showing.

 

[Meeqs]

I love the idea of Drouin on this team, but Patrick for him? Not sure I could stomach that. A big two-way center is so, so much more valuable from a team-building perspective.

1) Even if the Avs do trade Duchene, Jost is looking incredibly promising as a 2c behind nate and Compher as well as a great 3/flex C. So another top 6 center just repeats the same issue the Avs have had for the past 8 years.

2) Although Patrick can play RW, I think Drouin is better than every single player in this draft and we KNOW he has incredible chemistry with Nate. Also Drouin is still young enough to be part of the core.

I simply dont think there is anything Avs could do to get Drouin out of TB now outside of a miracle. I would like to think 3 years of an ELC would be convincing but TB will probably rather trade a triplet after the Expo draft for a Dman.

 

[Meeqs]

Buffalo isn't moving Risto so we don't have to worry about that.

I looked at those charts the other day and still can't figure out what the hell they mean. In general I think the whole "expected" movement in analytics is a bunch of voodoo.

Its a crap ton of data compiled (all 5v5) to attempt to predict how a player will contribute to a team offensively and defensively compared to a replacement level player. The net of the offensive and defensive contributions is the XPM.

Some things to note is that is also uses multiple years, not just the current one. It also does not take individual scoring into effect, so even though a player has high point totals it may not reflect in XPM.

It is a model that tries and predicts a players future impact rather than describes how they have played, which has a lot of fuzzy theory into the application and while there are a few models that try to do something similar all of them are very much in their infant stages. So it will produce some questionable results at times but generally I feel like it does a solid job.

Its surely a flavor of the month thing though.

 

[Ivan13]

Predicting something in hockey is impossible given the fact that it isn't a stop and go sport like baseball, which is what sabermaticians don't get. Are analytics useful? Yes they are, if you know how to put them in context and combine it with the eye test. Perfect example is the Ristolainen example, when you see him you see he is playing great, moving the puck, generating offense etc, he isn't there yet defensively, but he isn't that bad either and the XPM makes him look like Francois Beauchemin who ironically has better metrics despite the fact that he is far worse than Risto.