Speculation: What might Sakic do?

Meeqs

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Aug 23, 2012
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There have been a ton of rumors on the Avs and will most likely continue throughout the year. We will probably see all kinds of speculation, both founded and unfounded.

So because of this I wanted to create a thread examining "which players could be moved?", "the reasoning behind why they might be moved?" and mostly looking at which players the Avs may be targeting.

Keep in mind this isn't a proposal thread (while I know some of that will be brought up) but I'd like it to be a place where Av fans can learn more about the players from other teams that may be brought up as possible returns in a trade, the advantages and disadvantages for these options and looking at previous moves as precedent for what we might expect to happen.

The Avs have some of the brightest and passionate fans in hockey and while this is definitely a trying time for the fan base, we can take this as an opportunity to learn more about the game and become more knowledgeable hockey fans about the team we all love(and some times feel other feelings towards)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So with that said here are some quick personal thoughts:

What are some paths Sakic may choose to take:

-There is standing pat, and hoping our current prospects and influx of cap space will be enough to improve the team. This will allow for the team to be as competitive right now as other options but also leaves our defensive issues mostly unsolved.

-He could move A core player like Landeskog or Duchene for help on defense and depth. This would be a painful move but very possibly may be necessary to get the Avs the type of Dman they need. With Zads, Barrie and EJ, getting another Dman may be enough to move forward while having a prospect like Jost or the Avs 1st this year to replace the lost forward as they take far less time to develop.

-He could do a large rebuild focusing on a core of players ~22 years of age and younger. With this we would most likely see Duchene, Landeskog and even EJ moved for as many high end young players, prospect and picks that they could get. This would by far make the Avs worse over the next 2 years but should allow for a very strong core all with the same window, and would allow for Sakic to build the roster with the right composition of players as well as lining up with the start of good drafting 3 years ago when pracey was fired.

-All paths will probably include trading away as many rentals as the Avs can for the best value offered.

What non core may be moved

Soderberg: With Jost and Compher in the system and his struggles to start the year would the Avs consider trying to move Soderberg? While Compher is a promising prospect would they miss a center that is large in size?

Comeau: Still a solid depth player that could be useful going forward

Grigorenko: Has all the skill but not enough effort. Possibly a bad fit for this system

Wiercioch/Gelinas: Both have had ups and downs. Should the Avs extend them or try and move them

Varly: Not that it would be likely anyone would give up much for him. Also maybe with improved team in front he could bounce back. Are injuries catching up to him?


Who are some players the Avs may be targeting:

This one is pretty simple as its essentially high end young dmen. I'll put down some potential players I feel the Avs could be looking at and the category they fall under.

Unrealistic: These are the players the Avs will ask for but there is essentially 0% chance that they will be moved:

-Lindholm
-Fowler
-Werenski
-Provorov
-Jones
-Ekblad
-Parayko*
-Reilly
-Klefbom

Too old: I am also assuming and Dman over the Age of 24 or maybe 25 is probably too old for the Avs to be interested in them, as that wouldn't align with their rebuild.

Division Rivals: I'm also assuming the Avs wont make any major trades within the Central division but some names might be on here anyways with an *

Barrie replacements: These are Dmen that fill the same role as Barrie and really only make sense on the off chance he is moved. A niche list.

-Vantanen (very likely to be moved due to Ducks ED issues)
-Klingberg (unlikely to be moved)*
-GhostBEAR (unlikely to be moved)
-Gardiner
-Maybe Leddy

NHL Players: So finally here are some players in the NHL I could see the Avs targeting, or they have been rumored to target. These players aren't all equal in "value" but are all possible fits for what they may be looking for.

-Josh Manson
-Shea Theodore
-Brandon Carlo
-Dougie Hamilton
-Jaccob Slavin
-Noah Hanafin
-Ryan Murray(maybe but probably not)
-Michael Matheson
-Nathan Beaulieu
-Damon Severson
-Olli Maatta
-Derrick Pouliot
-Brian Dumoulin
-Slater Koekkoek
-Jacob Trouba*

Prospects: Prospects that may or may not be enough to be part of a package or the main piece of a deal

-Brandon Montour
-McAvoy
-Jakub Zboril
-Mikhail Sergachev
-Noah Juulsen
-Ryan Pulock
-Travis Sanheim
-Mirco Mueller
-Jeremy Roy
-Olli Juolevi
-Joshua Morrissey

Players to Avoid: These players may seem like they may fit, but are either overrated or just plain bad

-Cody Ceci
-Rasmus Ristolainen

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So those are some thoughts off the top of my head that I could think of. If there are any players you would like to discuss, whether it be questions or comments please throw in a response. Also if there is anything I may have missed feel free to throw it down below.

Also please try to stay on a single topic at a time so things dont get out of hand.
 

The Abusement Park

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There have been a ton of rumors on the Avs and will most likely continue throughout the year. We will probably see all kinds of speculation, both founded and unfounded.

So because of this I wanted to create a thread examining "which players could be moved?", "the reasoning behind why they might be moved?" and mostly looking at which players the Avs may be targeting.

Keep in mind this isn't a proposal thread (while I know some of that will be brought up) but I'd like it to be a place where Av fans can learn more about the players from other teams that may be brought up as possible returns in a trade, the advantages and disadvantages for these options and looking at previous moves as precedent for what we might expect to happen.

The Avs have some of the brightest and passionate fans in hockey and while this is definitely a trying time for the fan base, we can take this as an opportunity to learn more about the game and become more knowledgeable hockey fans about the team we all love(and some times feel other feelings towards)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So with that said here are some quick personal thoughts:

What are some paths Sakic may choose to take:

-There is standing pat, and hoping our current prospects and influx of cap space will be enough to improve the team. This will allow for the team to be as competitive right now as other options but also leaves our defensive issues mostly unsolved.

-He could move A core player like Landeskog or Duchene for help on defense and depth. This would be a painful move but very possibly may be necessary to get the Avs the type of Dman they need. With Zads, Barrie and EJ, getting another Dman may be enough to move forward while having a prospect like Jost or the Avs 1st this year to replace the lost forward as they take far less time to develop.

-He could do a large rebuild focusing on a core of players ~22 years of age and younger. With this we would most likely see Duchene, Landeskog and even EJ moved for as many high end young players, prospect and picks that they could get. This would by far make the Avs worse over the next 2 years but should allow for a very strong core all with the same window, and would allow for Sakic to build the roster with the right composition of players as well as lining up with the start of good drafting 3 years ago when pracey was fired.

-All paths will probably include trading away as many rentals as the Avs can for the best value offered.

What non core may be moved

Soderberg: With Jost and Compher in the system and his struggles to start the year would the Avs consider trying to move Soderberg? While Compher is a promising prospect would they miss a center that is large in size?

Comeau: Still a solid depth player that could be useful going forward

Grigorenko: Has all the skill but not enough effort. Possibly a bad fit for this system

Wiercioch/Gelinas: Both have had ups and downs. Should the Avs extend them or try and move them

Varly: Not that it would be likely anyone would give up much for him. Also maybe with improved team in front he could bounce back. Are injuries catching up to him?


Who are some players the Avs may be targeting:

This one is pretty simple as its essentially high end young dmen. I'll put down some potential players I feel the Avs could be looking at and the category they fall under.

Unrealistic: These are the players the Avs will ask for but there is essentially 0% chance that they will be moved:

-Lindholm
-Fowler
-Werenski
-Provorov
-Jones
-Ekblad
-Parayko*
-Reilly
-Klefbom

Too old: I am also assuming and Dman over the Age of 24 or maybe 25 is probably too old for the Avs to be interested in them, as that wouldn't align with their rebuild.

Division Rivals: I'm also assuming the Avs wont make any major trades within the Central division but some names might be on here anyways with an *

Barrie replacements: These are Dmen that fill the same role as Barrie and really only make sense on the off chance he is moved. A niche list.

-Vantanen (very likely to be moved due to Ducks ED issues)
-Klingberg (unlikely to be moved)*
-GhostBEAR (unlikely to be moved)
-Gardiner
-Maybe Leddy

NHL Players: So finally here are some players in the NHL I could see the Avs targeting, or they have been rumored to target. These players aren't all equal in "value" but are all possible fits for what they may be looking for.

-Josh Manson
-Shea Theodore
-Brandon Carlo
-Dougie Hamilton
-Jaccob Slavin
-Noah Hanafin
-Ryan Murray(maybe but probably not)
-Michael Matheson
-Nathan Beaulieu
-Damon Severson
-Olli Maatta
-Derrick Pouliot
-Brian Dumoulin
-Slater Koekkoek
-Jacob Trouba*

Prospects: Prospects that may or may not be enough to be part of a package or the main piece of a deal

-Brandon Montour
-McAvoy
-Jakub Zboril
-Mikhail Sergachev
-Noah Juulsen
-Ryan Pulock
-Travis Sanheim
-Mirco Mueller
-Jeremy Roy
-Olli Juolevi
-Joshua Morrissey

Players to Avoid: These players may seem like they may fit, but are either overrated or just plain bad

-Cody Ceci
-Rasmus Ristolainen

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So those are some thoughts off the top of my head that I could think of. If there are any players you would like to discuss, whether it be questions or comments please throw in a response. Also if there is anything I may have missed feel free to throw it down below.

Also please try to stay on a single topic at a time so things dont get out of hand.

How the hell is Risto bad/overrated? The dude's an absolute stud. He should be in the unrealistic portion for sure.
 

Meeqs

Registered User
Aug 23, 2012
9,295
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USA
How the hell is Risto bad/overrated? The dude's an absolute stud. He should be in the unrealistic portion for sure.

Risto is an awful Dman.

http://public.tableau.com/views/D_HERO_2017/Story1?:embed=y&:loadOrderID=1&:display_count=yes

Also

C2etESqUsAA-u39.jpg:large


There isn't much he is good at other than being slightly offensive. Avs LUCKED out by getting Zads in the RoR deal over Risto.

Granted it doesn't matter too much as Buf has just as big as a need as most other teams and wouldn't be moving him to the Avs for any foreseeable reason.

He is mostly on the list for due diligence.
 
Last edited:

Meeqs

Registered User
Aug 23, 2012
9,295
1,677
USA
Brodin (Minnesota) would be nice.

I didn't put in any Min players because the Avs are in the same division and I can't imagine the Avs making any deals with them that they dont outright win.

With that said Brodin has been trending downward ever since he entered the league. I would have put him the the players to avoid section. He is the RNH of dmen.

I consider Dumba, Scandella and Spurgeon all better D than him. I also could see him being claimed in the ED but LA will get a good player form them no matter what.

So not really a player worth thinking about as it is far too unlikely to ever happen.

Looking at his hero chart http://public.tableau.com/shared/PNCD5CNDS?:display_count=yes he is a bottom pairing guy in everything but shot suppression which is about what you would expect but its that he is getting worse every year that is truly troublesome.

C2e2KJaVEAApmgw.jpg:large


This chart for Brodin is actually hilarious
 

tigervixxxen

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Jul 7, 2013
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Buffalo isn't moving Risto so we don't have to worry about that.

I looked at those charts the other day and still can't figure out what the hell they mean. In general I think the whole "expected" movement in analytics is a bunch of voodoo.
 

Avs71

Registered User
Aug 12, 2008
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4,415
If the Avs got Risto instead of Zadorov, they would be laughing right now. Love Z because he's a rare breed of defenceman, but I don't think it's close between the two.
 

Cousin Eddie

You Serious Clark?
Nov 3, 2006
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Buffalo isn't moving Risto so we don't have to worry about that.

I looked at those charts the other day and still can't figure out what the hell they mean. In general I think the whole "expected" movement in analytics is a bunch of voodoo.

Every time there's a new chart of any type making it's rounds people use it as a guide of how good a player is. It's currently the trend with these charts.

The notion that Risto is anything short of spectacular is ridiculous. He's a fantastic hockey player. To push it further and suggest the Avalanche are lucky to get Zads over Risto is just something I cant even wrap my head around somebody saying. I don't know if I've ever seen a more preposterous quote on here and I absolutely LOVE Zadorov.
 

Punished ROR

a hero denied by hortons
Jul 3, 2006
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Hello old friends. Former Avs fan checking in. ;)

Every time there's a new chart of any type making it's rounds people use it as a guide of how good a player is. It's currently the trend with these charts.

The notion that Risto is anything short of spectacular is ridiculous. He's a fantastic hockey player.

Yes ... thank you.

Risto averages nearly 27 minutes a game and he does it against the opponent's top lines, with plenty of defensive zone starts, and he does it all while dragging Gorges' corpse tied around his neck. And he's only 22 with plenty of time to get better.

When the other Sabres d-men come over the boards, they're facing lesser competition and getting more favorable deployments, so of course their advanced stats will look better. To look at a chart and come away with the idea that they're better defenseman than Risto is insane.

I can't comment on Risto vs. Zadorov because I haven't seen Z play.

TLDR; you can't look at a chart and get the whole story.
 

ABasin

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Risto is an awful Dman.

Of course he's not.

Buffalo is similar to Colorado in one sense, in that they have some very good young players, but play a poor brand of team hockey. Hence, some very good individuals don't have production levels of which they are capable. Or their production is being suppressed by the collective. Or are we to believe that Landeskog is truly a 15 goal forward (which is generally 3rd line territory), and we should accept trade value return based upon that?

If Sakic is truly intent on trading Duchene or Landeskog for a defenseman, and Buffalo agrees with you in regards to Ristolainen, please put me in the category of wanting that deal done.
 

The Abusement Park

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Risto is an awful Dman.

http://public.tableau.com/views/D_HERO_2017/Story1?:embed=y&:loadOrderID=1&:display_count=yes

Also

C2etESqUsAA-u39.jpg:large


There isn't much he is good at other than being slightly offensive. Avs LUCKED out by getting Zads in the RoR deal over Risto.

Granted it doesn't matter too much as Buf has just as big as a need as most other teams and wouldn't be moving him to the Avs for any foreseeable reason.

He is mostly on the list for due diligence.

Ok bud. Just like advanced stats said that Tyson Barrie is a top pairing defenseman? Actually watch Risto play instead of stat watch, Buffalo isn't a good team and he carries that team defensively.
 

henchman21

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Every time there's a new chart of any type making it's rounds people use it as a guide of how good a player is. It's currently the trend with these charts.

This is 100% the truth. Last year it was the HERO chart, this year the XPM.
 

the_fan

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Don't expect big trades during the season. If anything big like trading Duchene or Landeskog happens, it will be during off-season after they see who they get in the draft. Because trading Duchene and Landeskog for a D might fix one problem, but it will leave a huge hole on offense, and in a weak draft, if they don't get at least Hischier or Patrick, and with Landeskog or Duchene traded, who will they have on offense next year?

Jost will probably make the NHL in couple of years, the Avs might actually be worse next season if they don't win the lottery and trade one of Duchene or Landeskog, like a 40 point season bad. Their offense is already horrible, what would it be then?

Without Duchene

Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Bourque-???-Nieto

Without Landeskog

Bourque-MacKinnon-Rantanen
???-Duchene-Nieto

You get the picture. Those question marks would be filled with AHL caliber players and you know what the out come will be.

Gotta wait and make sure they win the lottery or at least get a top 2 pick before making big trades
 

AllAboutAvs

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I've already said in another thread that I want the Avs to do this next retool/rebuild properly which means fixing the D first and then worry about the FWDs as dmen take longer to develop. That is why I don't have a problem trading both Duchene and Landy as long as the D is taking care of once the deals are done.

With that being said the question is what would Avs fans be happy with regarding the returns as far as the D is concerned? Do we all want two potential #1s coming back (one in each trade)? One #1 and a #2? etc. Of course it also depends of the rest of the return. For example if we are happy with a #1 and #2 coming back than the other piece(s) in the #2 trade will have to be pretty good.

Just like everybody else here I've been thinking about this quite a bit and what if we get two #2s back instead? Before everybody get their gun out to shoot me, let's think about it for a minute. We already have EJ and Z. I think it is fair to say that EJ is a weak #1/strong #2. I think we all agree that Z should also become a weak #1/strong #2 at the very least. I think he has showed enough in the past month to become that with still potential to become an average #1 as well. Now let's say we get two more #2s with hopefully one of them having at least potential to become a weak #1 as well. Would it be that bad if our D now includes at the very least four #2s with three of them being strong #2s? Wouldn't it be better as we would have a much better balanced D unit?

An advantage would be that if one goes down with injury we still have other guys to step in to take on the slack. Another advantage would also be that the other pieces coming back in these trades would also be much better and therefore help fixing the FWDs as well much quicker.

Keep in mind that in this scenario we still have Barrie and Bigras on our bottom pair who both can step in the top-4 if needed. We could afford to take our time to trade Barrie for FWD help which along with guys like Mack, Rant, Jost, top-4 pick this year, at least two other very good pieces from the trades, Greer, Compher, Beaudin etc. would give us a very very good FWD group in the near future.

Getting a #1 is extremely difficult even with established guys like Matty and Landy so why not go for a much balanced option instead and get better secondary and tertiary pieces which would help everywhere in the lineup as well? Everybody wants an "almost" sure fire #1 in one of the deals but that is impossible to predict anyway. I'm ok if the two guys are at least #2s considering what we already have and help fix other issues as well. Even if one only becomes a #3 we would still have a very strong D unit.

Possible candidates:
LHD: Hanifin, Slavin (unlikely), Chabot, Sergy, Muzzin, DeHann, Beaulieu
RHD: Carlo, McAvoy, Pesce, Faulk, Hamonic, Ceci, Vatanen

I am sure there are other #2s we could target but these are the ones that come to mind as I am typing this.

The problem with Muzzin is of course his age but he would help bring the other kids along. Same can be said about Hamonic and Faulk. The other problem with Muzzin is that the other pieces from LA are not very attractive. Even a #1 could get much worst with Landy in their lineup. In the case of DeHann, Vatanen, Beaulieu and Ceci the ++s would need to be great to compensate as they are closer to #4s then #3s.

Anyway just another way to look at it.
 

sethro109

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If one of them do get traded I have a feeling it'll be late in the day of trade deadline by a desperate GM that will overpay.
 

the_fan

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Also another problem is, if Avs trade Duchene or Landeskog or both now for D, almost certainly they will be worse next season or at very least be where they are right now, that means they will have a chance at another lottery win, and in 18 draft from what i understand the best player available is gonna be a d-man.

So now you got Avs loaded on defense but horrible offense, unless again, they draft Patrick or Hischier this year then that'll be fine.

Avs potentially can have super defense in couple of years, and very good offense as well, if all the above happens, they draft Patrick, draft Dahlin in 18 draft, and with Duchene or Landeskog or both traded for establishes solid d-men, things would look good. But those are just a lot of ifs right now, it could happen.
 

JoemAvs

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Also another problem is, if Avs trade Duchene or Landeskog or both now for D, almost certainly they will be worse next season or at very least be where they are right now, that means they will have a chance at another lottery win, and in 18 draft from what i understand the best player available is gonna be a d-man.

So now you got Avs loaded on defense but horrible offense, unless again, they draft Patrick or Hischier this year then that'll be fine.

Avs potentially can have super defense in couple of years, and very good offense as well, if all the above happens, they draft Patrick, draft Dahlin in 18 draft, and with Duchene or Landeskog or both traded for establishes solid d-men, things would look good. But those are just a lot of ifs right now, it could happen.


The Top10 will be amazing. Yes Dahlin will probably go #1 but the last place team has only a 18 % chance of getting him anyways.

Svechnikov is not far behind Dahlin and projects to be the next big thing out of Russia (currently has 32 points in 25 games in the USHL (!) in his draft -1 year). He should be an elite winger.

Veleno (got exceptional status like McDavid back then) is at PPG in the Q in his draft-1 year and projects to be a #1 C.

Then you also have guys like McIsaac, Boqvist, Merkley, Wilde and a few more that all look like they have legit #1 potential on D.

And a crapload of good forwards as well. Khovanov, MacDonald, Groulx, Levin , etc. all look very good right now.


Half of those guys will probably not live up to the hype next year but the top10 should still be amazing.


Looks like a draft where you can get a guy like Rantanen at #10.

So does not really matter what you need.
 

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