What Level of Credit is Due to Dorion for the Karlsson Deal?

[Sensung]

How could you say this in all honesty? EK carried the team to the ECF 8 months prior...

I find it hilarious that posters are so sure EK is done.

Will be a great thread to revisit.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

I think people just saying "well it was luck" are not giving enough credit to PD and his staff for their evaluation but equally those who are saying "he's a genius" are giving him too much credit.

Before the GM makes any trade, they have to consider all the possible scenarios from "Best case to worst case" and safely assume it'll fall somewhere in between. They likely discussed the Sharks current team make up and envisioned them being on the decline, probably seeing 2021 as their downfall. Injuries, poor goaltending and coaching turned the Sharks confidence into doubt and their season spiraled downwards worst than expected.

The Sens also properly evaluated the players they got in return and made sure the conditions on the 1st rounder were limited. That's purely on the GM and his staff.

We got the best case scenario but let's not pretend that this, by the luck of the gods, just fell on PD's lap.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Return has worked out quite well in hindsight, largely due to the Sharks 1st being much higher than anyone would expect and the emergence of Norris this year. Sharks 1st being 3rd OVR is mostly luck due to injuries, but Norris was a great target.

At the time it looked like a collection of secondary assets for Karlsson. Sharks got a top 5 D in the league without having to give up a single high-end asset.

It is lucky that we didn’t get a high end asset like Hertl because that likely would’ve meant the 1st was taken away. I’d much rather have that pick than Hertl

 

[dumbdick]

EK and Stone got us to within one goal of the cup final.

They weren't the problem.

Yeah I agree those guys are studs. Stone is my all-time favourite sen and I absolutely would have kept him. I was okay with trading Karl when it happened and still am today. Short of money falling from the sky, I just didn't see us extending that core and having enough left over to surround them with the pieces we needed to compete.

As a fan, I would have had trouble getting behind those decisions to just lock up the same roster that came off such bad seasons. I felt the "one goal from the cup final" was a hot run at the right time and otherwise never felt the sens were all that close over the past 10 years or so.

 

[HSF]

it depends I would say Demelo , Tierney and Balcers are depth players and in the grand scheme of things won't really matter. Norris is looking really good and the pick is also looking really good. The return is turning out better than I first thought.

BUT

If Karlsson comes back to life and neither Norris or that 1st turn into a top line player I would say Ottawa still loses the deal. The potential is there but could be magic beans

 

[DaveMatthew]

I also think it's a little revisionist to say that Dorion identified that Karlsson was a "diminishing asset" and cut bait.

• Dorion offered Karlsson a long-term contract at a $10M/year for 8 years
• Dorion held off on actually trading Karlsson for as long as he could
• Melnyk himself reach out to Karlsson during mid-summer 2018 to try and get him to re-engage in contract discussions

So let's not act like Dorion pulled a Bill Belichick and cut ties for purely on ice reasons. He did, in fact, try to keep him, within the financial limitations place upon him by Melnyk.

My hunch is that if Melnyk, and his restrictions on ACV and trade protection, weren't involved, Dorion would have happily given Karlsson the Doughty contract and he'd still be here.

 

[The Lewler]

He got lucky pure and simple .

He got backed into a corner , did his best and got pure luck to bail him out . Maybe.

 

[Masked]

At the time he certainly didn't get the haul that a player of Karlsson's caliber warranted. The SJ first rounder was pure luck. Did his scouting team project Norris to have the kind of year he did in his first pro season? If so, maybe he deserves some credit. If not, not so much.

 

[thinkwild]

When Dorion was prematurely given a 3 yr contract, it sure looked like it was to give him security for the horrible things he was going to have to do, and then take the blame for. It sure seemed that the: tear down, get rid of every player, spend below the cap floor in hard cash, was a Melnyk decision, not Dorions who maintained he wanted to keep all these guys as DaveMatthew put so well.

Did Melnyk want it cause he astutely saw it as the best way to rebuild and didn’t want to say anything until fyous started? I doubt it, but if he wants credit for it, let him stand up and own it now. Still not even sure id believe him if he did.

So do I judge Dorion for his astuteness level, or for the best he could get having a horrible job thrust upon him? Him betting that he could he could see SJ’s lottery fall more than their GM who didn’t even think it worth lottery protecting, for me is giving him kudos for winning a coin flip on a hugely important trade.

I remember when 1st reading the trade ideas when it was starting to sink in and Point, Serg, maybe two 1sts didn’t seem unreasonable to me. More than judging Dorion, this trade allowed me to continue to see the pattern of how trade values have changed from the old days that still seem to inform my trade values. What is good value now? We got some good value, it is working out well so far. But im not seeing a wisdom filled narrative I can hang my unconditional emotional support on yet.

 

[JD1]

How could you say this in all honesty? EK carried the team to the ECF 8 months prior...

Yes he did.

Then he had a freakishly odd major surgical procedure that had no predictable outcome when performed on an elite athlete

Then he had a seat to watch the man play on that ankle for 50 games or whatever it was.

I think it's very reasonable for professionals within Ottawa's organization to look at those 50 games and say he's not the same.

 

[JD1]

The other point for consideration re that 1st round draft pick

There was an article a few months back in the Athletic on the trade. In the article an SJ exec (i forget who, not Wilson) said that SJ pushed for that pick to be top 10 protected and Dorion pushed back.

I think it's fair to say that a top 3 pick is lucky if it works out that way, but it's also fair to say he made his own luck by insisting the pick not be protected.

 

[benjiv1]

Given the circumstances, I think you have to give Dorion credit.

Likely unable to take on Salary, rumours of issues with Ownership, etc.

I think the SJ pick is rather flukey, except that Ottawa clearly targeted the 2020 draft for the rebuild, but you have to give him full marks on Norris.

 

[alfstheman]

Surrounding them with vets like Johnny Oduya and Nate Thompson, while giving Cody Ceci over 25 minutes of icetime all while receiving the worst goaltending the league probably has more to do with last place than having Karlsson, Stone & Duchene in your lineup.

To be honest Karlsson's defence was attrocious ever since the cup run. I dont think his ankle was or will ever be the same after playing through that injury. While ceci and other defence did not help, Karlsson definately should take some of the blame for finishing last that year as he was beat constantly on the rush by players going to the outside.

 

[Sun God Nika]

Karlssons jersey should be in the rafters after playing a career in ottawa it's a joke he plays for another team this was never suppose to happen

 

[JD1]

I also think it's a little revisionist to say that Dorion identified that Karlsson was a "diminishing asset" and cut bait.

• Dorion offered Karlsson a long-term contract at a $10M/year for 8 years
• Dorion held off on actually trading Karlsson for as long as he could
• Melnyk himself reach out to Karlsson during mid-summer 2018 to try and get him to re-engage in contract discussions

So let's not act like Dorion pulled a Bill Belichick and cut ties for purely on ice reasons. He did, in fact, try to keep him, within the financial limitations place upon him by Melnyk.

My hunch is that if Melnyk, and his restrictions on ACV and trade protection, weren't involved, Dorion would have happily given Karlsson the Doughty contract and he'd still be here.

But i thought at the time the 10 by 8 wasn't a real offer? I'm sure i read that on HF Sens

Seriously though.... I don't recall Melnyk reaching out to Karlsson in the summer of 2018. That's actually kind of funny if it happened

 

[Sensung]

But i thought at the time the 10 by 8 wasn't a real offer? I'm sure i read that on HF Sens

Seriously though.... I don't recall Melnyk reaching out to Karlsson in the summer of 2018. That's actually kind of funny if it happened

The 10 × 8 was reported to not include a NTC.

Not a real offer without one.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Regardless of how fair it is, the Karlsson trade will astoundingly go down as the greatest trade in Senators history.

I don't think it's something Dorion, or anybody, saw coming.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Regardless of how fair it is, the Karlsson trade will astoundingly go down as the greatest trade in Senators history.

I don't think it's something Dorion, or anybody, saw coming.

Pretty sure he did

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I wouldn't say "genius" because while I thought the Sharks might miss the playoffs this year, I don't think Dorion would have envisioned them finishing 3rd last. But I would say whatever opinion you have of Sakic for the Duchene deal should be the same for Dorion in this deal. In both cases the pick received is much much higher than expected.

Strongly disagree with this.

We knew Erik was coming back from a severe injury and would not be himself for a chunk of the year. We knew that playoff run was more a fluke than a real success. We knew damned well we were a bubble team. There was a very good chance with that Duchene trade it would blow up in our face...and it did.

San Jose had a moderate chance to tank...but it had to be a perfect storm of ugly for it to happen. Winning the perfect storm lotto is not really something anyone could reasonably expect to happen.



The best thing is SJ not having protection on that first round pick. That was a huge error by Wilson. No matter how good your team is, you always want to have some sort of lotto protection on your first rounder these days. And Norris is turning into a better than expected asset. That is good on Dorion for having those old scouting eyes still working.

 

[coladin]

Hindsight is 20/20. And because of this, any notion that Pierre knew what he was doing other than wandering his way into it and bumbling the entire way is completely hilarious.

Maybe. But Karlsson was terrible in 2017-2018, and Dorion watched every minute. Terrible for the standard that he had set. It is not inconceivable that Dorion saw the writing on the wall. After all, he knew everyone's sweetheart Jonathan Dahlen was a bust. You don't have to give him any credit, but if you take the pom poms away from your eyes, and watch from an objective point of view, then it is certainly plausible that Dorion saw that EK was deteriorating

 

[coladin]

EK and Stone got us to within one goal of the cup final.

They weren't the problem.

That team according to you and everyone else, was a mirage anyways so

 

[Sweatred]

Even if the SJ pick was 15th overall this is still a great trade. We would be handcuffed paying EK $11.5 for 7 more years. Our 2021 payroll would have $40 mill (AAV) on EK, CHABOT, BRADY, WHITE, RYAN. That's probably $23 million of dead money (1/3 the floor AKA our internal cap) on EK, White, Ryan.

 

[dumbdick]

I wonder how Buffalo fans feel about that SJ first this year. They were very close to nabbing that as part of the Kane deal.

 

[Laphroaig]

The most important thing to remember is that Erik Karlsson has the second stupidest looking moustache in the league next to Auston Matthews.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Strongly disagree with this.

We knew Erik was coming back from a severe injury and would not be himself for a chunk of the year. We knew that playoff run was more a fluke than a real success. We knew damned well we were a bubble team. There was a very good chance with that Duchene trade it would blow up in our face...and it did.

San Jose had a moderate chance to tank...but it had to be a perfect storm of ugly for it to happen. Winning the perfect storm lotto is not really something anyone could reasonably expect to happen.



The best thing is SJ not having protection on that first round pick. That was a huge error by Wilson. No matter how good your team is, you always want to have some sort of lotto protection on your first rounder these days. And Norris is turning into a better than expected asset. That is good on Dorion for having those old scouting eyes still working.

There’s a huge difference between bubble team and last place. Sens protected their pick too. It was lucky that Colorado got a lottery pick. Sens should have finished on the playoff bubble in 17-18