What Level of Credit is Due to Dorion for the Karlsson Deal?

[dumbdick]

I constantly have to remind myself what we actually got for Karl. Such a complex deal. Added Sogaard and the associated pick trade for completeness. I would have killed for that other SJ first next season had they gone to the cup final.

GOING OUT:
EK
Perron
83rd Overall Pick 2019

COMING IN:
2020 first (top six OA)
Mads Sogaard (traded 83rd overall plus 2019 2nd from SJ to move up in draft)
2021 2nd round pick
2020 3rd round pick (Demelo trade to Jets)
126 games of Demelo
Chris Tierney (85 pts in 152 games with Sens)
Rudy Balcers (67 pts in 76 AHL GP, 17 pts in 51 NHL GP)
Josh Norris (61 pts in 51 AHL GP, 0 pts in 3 NHL GP)

 

[branch]

Yes he did.

Then he had a freakishly odd major surgical procedure that had no predictable outcome when performed on an elite athlete

Then he had a seat to watch the man play on that ankle for 50 games or whatever it was.

I think it's very reasonable for professionals within Ottawa's organization to look at those 50 games and say he's not the same.

I think you're giving someone way too much credit.

 

[branch]

Maybe. But Karlsson was terrible in 2017-2018, and Dorion watched every minute. Terrible for the standard that he had set. It is not inconceivable that Dorion saw the writing on the wall. After all, he knew everyone's sweetheart Jonathan Dahlen was a bust. You don't have to give him any credit, but if you take the pom poms away from your eyes, and watch from an objective point of view, then it is certainly plausible that Dorion saw that EK was deteriorating

Luck is luck, just like betting red or black. You and I both know EK would have been signed as Pierre's (who has shown an inability to evaluate pro level talent before) boytoy if not for the gorilla in the room. Pierre was in love with him, except for one guy. You of all guys know that.

 

[branch]

The most important thing to remember is that Erik Karlsson has the second stupidest looking moustache in the league next to Auston Matthews.

When you're making 11 mil a year you can be wearing whatever moustache you want.

 

[branch]

Karlssons jersey should be in the rafters after playing a career in ottawa it's a joke he plays for another team this was never suppose to happen

Hang it up next to the Stone #61 jersey

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Strongly disagree with this.

We knew Erik was coming back from a severe injury and would not be himself for a chunk of the year. We knew that playoff run was more a fluke than a real success. We knew damned well we were a bubble team. There was a very good chance with that Duchene trade it would blow up in our face...and it did.

San Jose had a moderate chance to tank...but it had to be a perfect storm of ugly for it to happen. Winning the perfect storm lotto is not really something anyone could reasonably expect to happen.



The best thing is SJ not having protection on that first round pick. That was a huge error by Wilson. No matter how good your team is, you always want to have some sort of lotto protection on your first rounder these days. And Norris is turning into a better than expected asset. That is good on Dorion for having those old scouting eyes still working.

They tried to negotiate to protect the pick, but were unable to. This is from an interview with Doug Wilson Jr., who works in the organization, currently as the Director of Scouting.

Protecting the pick would have been very difficult, because it could have created a situation where the Senators were not getting a 1st rounder until almost 3 years after the trade. It also would push the additional conditional 1st rounder that the Senators may have received to 4 years after the trade. Dorion also has been on record about valuing 2020 1st and 2nd round picks very highly. So, San Jose would have lowered Ottawa's incentive in the trade by protecting the pick.

I think a lot of the trade is pure luck, but if there was any strategic element to getting a double unprotected pick, that's the absolute smartest part of the trade.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Karlssons jersey should be in the rafters after playing a career in ottawa it's a joke he plays for another team this was never suppose to happen

 

[Masked]

Regardless of how fair it is, the Karlsson trade will astoundingly go down as the greatest trade in Senators history.

I don't think it's something Dorion, or anybody, saw coming.

I doubt it measures up to the Yashin trade.

 

[Hinterland]

Let's say Dorian got very lucky all things considered. Unless he knew Karlsson was injured more then anyone else knew.

Everybody knew...some just didn't want to admit it. I told you all at the time and I got a lot of hate for it from both Sharks and Sens fans. HF Sharks even locked me out of their Karlsson thread because they didn't want to hear the truth...I can probably consider myself lucky that I didn't get any bans for it. Karlsson, as great as he is with the puck, was always at AHL level defensively and carried by Methot. He was also making up for terrible positioning with his amazing skating...and it was pretty clear at the time of the trade that he'd never be able to skate as smoothly as he was for large parts of his career. I guess if the Sharks were still the team they were a few years back and dominate possession then that would help but the fact that they're not makes Karlsson look even worse. The Sharks can't really shelter Karlsson too much either since their blue line isn't what it once was anymore and they also need to look after Burns who, in theory, could play a much more solid game but doesn't like to do it and takes risks instead. Burns also hurts Karlsson's offensive production since PP-time and roles need to be shared. I never understood this deal or contract from a Sharks perspective. Just dumb.

I also said that the Sharks will lose this deal based on the return and people here were laughing at me. Everybody, even the Sharks organization, underestimated Norris. Imagine where he'd be now without that terrible injury he suffered last year. The fact that the Sens won this deal has nothing to do with luck...you can argue that they were lucky for getting such an offer for a broken player with an expiring contract though.

 

[82Ninety42011]

Everybody knew...some just didn't want to admit it. I told you all at the time and I got a lot of hate for it from both Sharks and Sens fans. HF Sharks even locked me out of their Karlsson thread because they didn't want to hear the truth...I can probably consider myself lucky that I didn't get any bans for it. Karlsson, as great as he is with the puck, was always at AHL level defensively and carried by Methot. He was also making up for terrible positioning with his amazing skating...and it was pretty clear at the time of the trade that he'd never be able to skate as smoothly as he was for large parts of his career. I guess if the Sharks were still the team they were a few years back and dominate possession then that would help but the fact that they're not makes Karlsson look even worse. The Sharks can't really shelter Karlsson too much either since their blue line isn't what it once was anymore and they also need to look after Burns who, in theory, could play a much more solid game but doesn't like to do it and takes risks instead. Burns also hurts Karlsson's offensive production since PP-time and roles need to be shared. I never understood this deal or contract from a Sharks perspective. Just dumb.

I also said that the Sharks will lose this deal based on the return and people here were laughing at me. Everybody, even the Sharks organization, underestimated Norris. Imagine where he'd be now without that terrible injury he suffered last year. The fact that the Sens won this deal has nothing to do with luck...you can argue that they were lucky for getting such an offer for a broken player with an expiring contract though.

Apparently not the Sharks and to be honest neither did I think he'd never get back to his former self. However for those that knew including yourself well done. Dorian did well and the Sens dodged a bullet by him not re-signing in Ottawa.

 

[Hinterland]

Apparently not the Sharks and to be honest neither did I think he'd never get back to his former self. However for those that knew including yourself well done. Dorian did well and the Sens dodged a bullet by him not re-signing in Ottawa.

Let's call it an educated guess. Apparently he had torn tendons and multiple fractions.
I'm not a doctor but I had to completely stop skating at the age of 18 after suffering several torn tendons and ligaments in both feet and my right foot needing surgery because of a snapped ligament.

Now granted, I've never had tendon surgery, I've never had a fraction in my feet and I've also never been a great skater but I was 18, very fit and doing multiple sports. I get that I'm comparing apples and oranges but I know how bad foot injuries are and how much of a risk a foot surgery often is. They've come away from performing those on everyone but pro athletes and kids in many cases because of the risk and recovery time involved. Karlsson's best "weapon" has always been his skating. It was clear to me that he'd never be the same again if he lost only a few percentages of his skating and at his age that was always gonna happen.

 

[JD1]

The book isn't written on this trade yet. We have that 1st. We might get Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle.

It's amazing the hoops we go through on this trade. Just on the subject of whether Dorion wanted to sign him, in this thread we've got he made him an 8 by 10 offer so he did want to re-sign him and we've got that the offer wasn't legit. It can't be both can it? Was it a legit attempt to re-sign him or wasn't it?

On the subject of being lucky about the draft pick, we've got SJ acknowledging that they tried to protect the pick and acknowledging that Dorion wouldn't have it so it might be lucky if we get Lafreniere but you earn your luck and Dorion got the unprotected pick

I took a lot of heat here, some of it really quite juvenile, for my stance that Karlsson needed to be moved because he was a risk and more heat for suggesting that the return was better than the consensus on the board. At this point, i think the trade is working out better than expected but i don't think it's fair to say it was lucky.

If we can't hand out a bit of credit for something that goes well, then there's probably not much chance at all for resurrecting a component of the fanbase.

 

[JD1]

Hang it up next to the Stone #61 jersey

The legend of Mark Stone....give it a few more years and some of you guys will have him as a unanimous first ballot hall of famer

He's 10th on the franchise's all time points list
10th on the all time goals list
14th on the all time winning goals list

Stone was a great player for us, no doubt about it. But he's getting elevated to heights he certainly didn't reach and may never have.

 

[dumbdick]

My memory must suck. I recall maybe two people suggesting we should trade Karl before that deal went down, and both got thoroughly lambasted for it.

Yet here it would appear that perhaps 2/3rds of the board thought he was declining and should be traded. Is my memory bad, or is it theirs?

 

[Hinterland]

The book isn't written on this trade yet. We have that 1st. We might get Lafreniere, Byfield, Stutzle.

It's amazing the hoops we go through on this trade. Just on the subject of whether Dorion wanted to sign him, in this thread we've got he made him an 8 by 10 offer so he did want to re-sign him and we've got that the offer wasn't legit. It can't be both can it? Was it a legit attempt to re-sign him or wasn't it?

On the subject of being lucky about the draft pick, we've got SJ acknowledging that they tried to protect the pick and acknowledging that Dorion wouldn't have it so it might be lucky if we get Lafreniere but you earn your luck and Dorion got the unprotected pick

I took a lot of heat here, some of it really quite juvenile, for my stance that Karlsson needed to be moved because he was a risk and more heat for suggesting that the return was better than the consensus on the board. At this point, i think the trade is working out better than expected but i don't think it's fair to say it was lucky.

If we can't hand out a bit of credit for something that goes well, then there's probably not much chance at all for resurrecting a component of the fanbase.

I agree with this 100%.
It's not luck at all...the Sens may get lucky with the pick but at the same time they were terribly unlucky with that Norris injury. Because of Norris alone, the Sharks were always gonna lose that that deal. They underestimated him and they underestimated how close he was. They also underestimated DeMelo.

 

[bert]

Dorion was on record of saying that he tried to sign him numerous times. Then traded him after his value had lowered when they already knew he wasnt going to sign, to a GM that just ripped him off and made him look like a fool. This is clearly luck not 'genius'.

As a sens fan I am happy with the current result, however lets look at the tangible facts we have in front of us.

 

[bert]

He's also on record saying he went to Barbados in February and laid out a rebuild plan and that plan identified the greatest return on trading Karlsson

Surely you remember that?

They literally said in the town hall meeting they are trying to sign him. Then several times to the media. Surely you remember that...... They even said they made an offer to him!!! Also if that was the actual plan to trade him instead of sign him then he would have been traded prior to the deadline when his value was substantially higher. Plus they made the Duchene trade in November, so what you are saying is that they changed the entire direction of the franchise, a complete 180 in 3 months. Not very organized if that is the actual case.

This coming from a man that said his 'proudest most proud day' was trading Mark Stone.

He also referred to Karlsson being created by god. But you think he was lying to us the entire time when he said he was trying to sign him.

Come on.

 

[bert]

I also think it's a little revisionist to say that Dorion identified that Karlsson was a "diminishing asset" and cut bait.

• Dorion offered Karlsson a long-term contract at a $10M/year for 8 years
• Dorion held off on actually trading Karlsson for as long as he could
• Melnyk himself reach out to Karlsson during mid-summer 2018 to try and get him to re-engage in contract discussions

So let's not act like Dorion pulled a Bill Belichick and cut ties for purely on ice reasons. He did, in fact, try to keep him, within the financial limitations place upon him by Melnyk.

My hunch is that if Melnyk, and his restrictions on ACV and trade protection, weren't involved, Dorion would have happily given Karlsson the Doughty contract and he'd still be here.

Exactly..... Yet some posters actually try to argue it was all part of the plan. Its unbelievable to me.

There is nothing wrong with being happy with the return while identifying its been incredibly lucky the Sharks have fallen apart and its a top 10 pick.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

My memory must suck. I recall maybe two people suggesting we should trade Karl before that deal went down, and both got thoroughly lambasted for it.

Yet here it would appear that perhaps 2/3rds of the board thought he was declining and should be traded. Is my memory bad, or is it theirs?

That's humanity for ya.


I was against the trade. I'm still against the trade. And I won't be changing my mind on it - right or wrong. I would be shocked if Erik isn't in the Norris conversation next season. All this time off right now is a huge windfall for him....as long as he's taking advantage of the opportunity. But I am starting to get a little excited over what we will get with that first round pick.

 

[Hinterland]

They literally said in the town hall meeting they are trying to sign him. Then several times to the media. Surely you remember that...... They even said they made an offer to him!!! Also if that was the actual plan to trade him instead of sign him then he would have been traded prior to the deadline when his value was substantially higher. Plus they made the Duchene trade in November, so what you are saying is that they changed the entire direction of the franchise, a complete 180 in 3 months. Not very organized if that is the actual case.

This coming from a man that said his 'proudest most proud day' was trading Mark Stone.

He also referred to Karlsson being created by god. But you think he was lying to us the entire time when he said he was trying to sign him.

Come on.

You really think any GM would have given up more than the Sharks did?

I will admit that Karlsson might not look quite as bad playing for a different franchise...but that guy would have lost his job by now.

Everybody knew about Karlsson's terrible injuries, about his defensive flaws and what kind of a contract he was looking for. I don't think it's more realistic to claim that the Sens could have gotten a better return than to claim that Dorion trying to sign him was just playing games with his fellow GM's.

I don't know about Dorion's intentions but he must have known that Karlsson wasn't gonna sign anyway and he also must have known that it didn't make sense to overpay for a rapidly declining player during a rebuild. If he did overpay for Karlsson at the time, Dorion would be looking like a grade a moron now and would be getting a lot of heat for it. That's for sure.

 

[Sensung]

He's also on record saying he went to Barbados in February and laid out a rebuild plan and that plan identified the greatest return on trading Karlsson

Surely you remember that?

He was summoned to Barbados so Eugene could lay out his plan for a financially motivated firesale and was rewarded with a 3 year blood money contract for agreeing to be Eugene's bagman.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think Dorion knew that a rebuild was coming by the summer of 2019. Basic math, take the former 68 million budget, the dead money, along with the cost of re-signing all the stars. It wouldn't work to keep everybody, and without spending to the cap, there'd be no other option than to rebuild.

It explains the aggressiveness with some of the trades that were made from 2016 onward, despite us never being a contender. It was win now time.

There was something weird going on with how Dorion handled the Karlsson trade. It almost seemed like he was sabotaging it in order to stall. I've always wondered if it was his idea to try and attach Ryan to Karlsson, knowing that it would make it nearly impossible to get a deal done with Vegas because attaching Ryan would nuke the return, and give him an argument to sell Melnyk on waiting until the draft.

Even the dog and pony show about making Karlsson an offer on July 1st. It was confirmed by Bill Daly that the Senators did not have to wait until July 1st to talk to Karlsson. Dorion made it seem like it was against the NHL's rules. There was lots of talk that even after the deadline and before July 1st, teams felt they met Dorion's price, but then the goal posts were moved.

I guess it is the ultimate Senspiracy, but I've always wondered if Dorion was trying to play Melnyk, and wait out a sale, so that he could keep Karlsson.

Even so, I don't think the July 1st offer was genuine if it didn't include full trade protection. It was a PR stunt so that they could justify to their season ticket holders that Karlsson left, they didn't push him out. Ironically, with Karlsson's injury issues, the contract itself would have acted as a no trade clause.

 

[dumbdick]

Well i can tell you i certainly got lambasted for it....the name calling was childish...but what was really over the top stupid were the insinuations that i must be getting paid by the team to hold such opinions and post them

It also gave me a lot of insight into how this board is moderated

I've also been accused of being a paid team rep for not hating Eugene Melnyk, the Person, enough. (I prefer instead to just civilly disagree with most of the business decisions of Eugene Melnyk, the Owner).

I honestly think these posters are way off base about the paid rep thing though. I don't know about you, but every time I try to call the team to provide my direct deposit information, they act like I don't know what I'm talking about.

 

[Samsquanch]

That's humanity for ya.


I was against the trade. I'm still against the trade. And I won't be changing my mind on it - right or wrong. I would be shocked if Erik isn't in the Norris conversation next season. All this time off right now is a huge windfall for him....as long as he's taking advantage of the opportunity. But I am starting to get a little excited over what we will get with that first round pick.

Why though? Just for the sake of being difficult? For your own pride?

I get it if you had an unreasonable amount of love and emotional attachment to Karlsson, who is arguably the greatest player ever to wear the Sens jersey, and you just cant forgive Melnyk/Dorion for trading him. I can understand that I suppose, although cant agree with it.

But if thats not the case, and you really are a reasonable fan, then Im not sure why you want to take such a childish stance on the trade, despite how incredible its looking for us at the moment?

 

[BatherSeason]

I think Dorion knew that a rebuild was coming by the summer of 2019. Basic math, take the former 68 million budget, the dead money, along with the cost of re-signing all the stars. It wouldn't work to keep everybody, and without spending to the cap, there'd be no other option than to rebuild.

It explains the aggressiveness with some of the trades that were made from 2016 onward, despite us never being a contender. It was win now time.

There was something weird going on with how Dorion handled the Karlsson trade. It almost seemed like he was sabotaging it in order to stall. I've always wondered if it was his idea to try and attach Ryan to Karlsson, knowing that it would make it nearly impossible to get a deal done with Vegas because attaching Ryan would nuke the return, and give him an argument to sell Melnyk on waiting until the draft.

Even the dog and pony show about making Karlsson an offer on July 1st. It was confirmed by Bill Daly that the Senators did not have to wait until July 1st to talk to Karlsson. Dorion made it seem like it was against the NHL's rules. There was lots of talk that even after the deadline and before July 1st, teams felt they met Dorion's price, but then the goal posts were moved.

I guess it is the ultimate Senspiracy, but I've always wondered if Dorion was trying to play Melnyk, and wait out a sale, so that he could keep Karlsson.

Even so, I don't think the July 1st offer was genuine if it didn't include full trade protection. It was a PR stunt so that they could justify to their season ticket holders that Karlsson left, they didn't push him out. Ironically, with Karlsson's injury issues, the contract itself would have acted as a no trade clause.

I think that this is as close to the truth as anyone wants to admit.