What is going on with Rasmus Dahlin?

[Henkka]

HDCF is faulty because of aforementioned reasons (works well only for league average shooters, not for exceptional ones or bad ones) , but again HDCA works fairly well, except it is again missing important nuances.

Would be very interesting to find out HDCA which will adjust goalies with good/bad rebound control. Like having a D with low HDCA could mislead you thinking that Defencemen are working good, limiting chances. But half of it could be just goalie being good, and not giving rebounds. Defenceman's most important job is to clear the loose pucks, second shots in front of the the net, which are all HDcorsi. It's very important stat for them, I look it a lot when analyzing D, but also that goalie matters a lot. Some goalies are rebound-giving machines, and defencemen playing with that kind of goalie could look bad on stats, even though they are doing good clearing job on that constant fire.

I would really be interested to find some stat site which will try to separate these. I've done it myself in excel, but it's very complicated to merge goalie and defenceman stats.

In the end only real goals matter and fancy stats can get you only so far.

Yeah, GAA really matters, if you want to find an easy number to look. That is the general ability from Goalie+Defence combo as a unit.

There are some "catch it all" fancy stats + real stats like WAR, but I am not aware any free ones currently after Corsica went down.

WAR and GAR are flawed too. They don't take quality of competition in account. No site has ever done that with right weights, not even corsi.ca

***

What comes to Buffalo, I think they'll problem are the goalies / goaltending coaching. And the system how goalies play with defencemen, also points on goaltending coaching. Those are good D they have, they just not doing the right things as a combo.

Dallas Stars and NY Islanders are the opposite examples of greatness at it.

 

[nbwingsfan]

It’s not just one game though is it? It’s his third season and all other “generational” players I can think of had accomplished at least something by now. Makar, Heiskanen and Hughes are all far ahead of him, despite being laughed at by some.

I watched pretty much all of his games in Frölunda. The smaller US ice and the speed of the game doesn’t favor a player like Dahlin. I won’t call him a bust, but he won’t be the generational player a lot (including myself) thought.

Accomplished nothing? Do you want to check the number of 18 year old D to put up 40+ points?

What about the number of 19 year old D to put up 50+point pace?

 

[nbwingsfan]

What's with this fascination of Hedman when we are talking about Dahlin and the three comparable players in his age group?

Hedman's career, his point totals, his accomplishments.. all of that is useless information.

What is useful information, is statistics and metrics comparing Dahlin, Heiskanen, Makar and Hughes.

And, when you look at the statistics and metrics.. you come to the obvious conclusion that Dahlin is not a generational talent, nor is he better than his three counter-parts.

All you can compare right now between Dahlin/Hughes/Makar is like 8 games...

Dahlin was putting up 44pts in the NHL while these guys were playing college...

 

[nbwingsfan]

He got no PP time. He went onto PP1 and started churning out 50+ point seasons.

Not true at all.

In 12/13 he was averaging like 1:45 on the PP had had 20pts in 44games.

He also only had ONE 50+pt season until his breakout in 16/17...his EIGHTH NHL season.

He became a true #1D in 13/14 which was his 5th NHL season and then took three more years to become what he is today.

Maybe lets pump the breaks on calling Dahlin a disappointment

 

[nbwingsfan]

In small sample size yes. But with bigger sample size it in fact tells much more than any shot metrics.

No it doesnt it is simply an awful stay and I don't know why they even count it

 

[The Macho King]

Not true at all.

In 12/13 he was averaging like 1:45 on the PP had had 20pts in 44games.

He also only had ONE 50+pt season until his breakout in 16/17...his EIGHTH NHL season.

He became a true #1D in 13/14 which was his 5th NHL season and then took three more years to become what he is today.

Maybe lets pump the breaks on calling Dahlin a disappointment

First- 1:46 of PP time is not a lot.

Second - the reference to "moving to PP1" is the more salient part of that statement. Getting the last 30 seconds of a PP featuring Ryan Malone and Dominic Moore is not the same as starting with Stamkos and MSL.

Third - I made no statement suggesting that Dahlin was a disappointment, so redirect your ire elsewhere.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

Possibly the most overrated player in the game. Many were expecting him to be one of the best Dmen in the league by now with generational potential.

How long can Dahlin ride the #1OV hype?

 

[MMANumminen]

Everything is forgiven with that hip check

 

[Halberdier]

WAR and GAR are flawed too. They don't take quality of competition in account. No site has ever done that with right weights, not even corsi.ca

Good post, Henkka, just commenting that one above:

I don't know how well QoC (quality of competition) and QoT (quality of team mates) were taken in the account in Corsica WAR, but definitely they were there as components.

And obviously even WAR is not perfect, but probably still at least an honest attempt to create a "catch all" stat.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

He was Buffalo's best defender yesterday, what are you talking about idiot?

Thats not saying much

The hype is out of control based on what we are seeing on the ice.

 

[Mr Zappalanche]

Starting to look like 4-headed monster is just Heiskanen solo.

What are you talking about?

 

[Yatzhee]

All I know is last night during the Rangers/Sabres game Dahlin put a hell of a hip check on a Rangers player and nearly back pressed him in to the Sabres bench.

That's what I want to see from this 20 yr old defenseman, some straight out snarl D plays.
Come up my side of the ice, and you will pay.

We know he's offensively gifted, but obtaining that snarky D play will be the key to completing him as a top D in to the future. And I like.....no, I love it!

 

[Ippenator]

No it doesnt it is simply an awful stay and I don't know why they even count it

Of course it does. At least if you understand anything about basic statistics, how they work in the long run and what essential things make teams still win hockey games. If you can’t understand these basic things and have been brainwashed by the fierce supporters of the worshipping of the so called advanced stats, then I guess no one can help you then.

 

[Zub]

Kevin Rooney wasn't too happy about getting lifted on Dahlin's shoulders

That's brilliant hahaha

 

[nbwingsfan]

First- 1:46 of PP time is not a lot.

Second - the reference to "moving to PP1" is the more salient part of that statement. Getting the last 30 seconds of a PP featuring Ryan Malone and Dominic Moore is not the same as starting with Stamkos and MSL.

Third - I made no statement suggesting that Dahlin was a disappointment, so redirect your ire elsewhere.

1:46 of PP time is a hell of a lot more than the "zero" you said first.

The extra ~30 seconds a game he got in 13/14 from 12/13 was not the reason he went from a 20pt D to a 50pt D. He just simply wasn't that great his first 4 seasons.

 

[Hitemwith4]

Byram is 19 and has impressed me much more in his first few games than Dahlin ever has. Yes, it's ridiculous to call Dahlin a bust and yes, he's becoming a very good dman but we should drop the "generational" attribute asap.

Edit: To be fair, Byram's teammates are better than the Sabres. So that obviously helps.

What does Byram's development have to do with Dahlin's?

 

[canuckking1]

Byram is 19 and has impressed me much more in his first few games than Dahlin ever has. Yes, it's ridiculous to call Dahlin a bust and yes, he's becoming a very good dman but we should drop the "generational" attribute asap.

Edit: To be fair, Byram's teammates are better than the Sabres. So that obviously helps.

This isn’t even close to true. Dahlin at 18 had 44 points and was a Calder nominee.

 

[Kahvi]

Better question: what is going on with Rasmus Ristolainen. Leads the Sabres in icetime, +/- and has 4 points in 8 games

 

[Dirty Dog]

Byram is 19 and has impressed me much more in his first few games than Dahlin ever has. Yes, it's ridiculous to call Dahlin a bust and yes, he's becoming a very good dman but we should drop the "generational" attribute asap.

Edit: To be fair, Byram's teammates are better than the Sabres. So that obviously helps.

To be even more fair, you are an Avs fan. Which MIGHT explain why you think Bryam, who has one career point, has impressed your more than Dahlin ever has.

what a remarkable thing to say lol.

 

[avsfan9]

This isn’t even close to true. Dahlin at 18 had 44 points and was a Calder nominee.

And hasn’t been close to that level since. Tyler Myers won the Calder too and Ekblad and neither have lived up to their potential

 

[canuckking1]

And hasn’t been close to that level since. Tyler Myers won the Calder too and Ekblad and neither have lived up to their potential

He literally followed it up with 40 points in 59 games. He's been bad for like 7 games relax. To say a guy like Bryam who's played 5 games has shown better than Dahlin ever has is ridiculous and not true.

 

[sabremike]

And hasn’t been close to that level since. Tyler Myers won the Calder too and Ekblad and neither have lived up to their potential

He was on pace to better that mark last season before Covid hit (and that was with a coach who was essentially not letting him go on the attack from his own zone)

 

[nbwingsfan]

Of course it does. At least if you understand anything about basic statistics, how they work in the long run and what essential things make teams still win hockey games. If you can’t understand these basic things and have been brainwashed by the fierce supporters of the worshipping of the so called advanced stats, then I guess no one can help you then.

Seriously? How many examples do you need to show that +/- is almost entirely reliant on who you play for and who you play with/against?

 

[nbwingsfan]

And hasn’t been close to that level since. Tyler Myers won the Calder too and Ekblad and neither have lived up to their potential

Hasnt been close to that level since? Were you living under a rock last season?

 

[sabresEH]

Better question: what is going on with Rasmus Ristolainen. Leads the Sabres in icetime, +/- and has 4 points in 8 games

Exactly what logical Sabres fans have been saying for a couple years. Reduce his minutes and he can play effective hockey. A kid trying to learn the NHL game and playing 30 minutes a night won’t look good. This year Krueger has reduced his toi and his play has been effective for the most part.

And hasn’t been close to that level since. Tyler Myers won the Calder too and Ekblad and neither have lived up to their potential

He was playing his best hockey when he came back from injury last year. This year he added 15 lbs and had no pre-season to get used to his new body. Let’s see where his game is at in games 12-15.