HF Habs: What are our real odds for Lafreniere? (Use this thread for Lafreniere talk)

[Habs Halifax]

Imagine if the Pens were loosing on purpose cause they see what our management don't... 12.5% at Lafreniere

 

[Habs Halifax]

Think of it this way boys and girls....

Long term planing (shot at a star... something we have not seen in several decades!)
vs
Short term gains (Have not made the playoffs in recent years and we want to see our team do well)

 

[Habs Halifax]

What a shitty time for Kotkaniemi and Suzuki to start taking the next step in their development as centers and then Clode goes all Scotty Bowman and drops Danault to the third line and boom, we are on the verge of eliminating Pittsburgh. It is really, really going to sting if we send them home and then lose in the first round. I guess that it's not over yet but man, the way that the Pens folded was concerning to me.

Pens are thinking 12.5% chance at Lafreniere. Habs are premature and this is going to sting for many years if we knock them out and give up our shot at getting the #1 OA... something we have not had in 40 years!

 

[NotProkofievian]

These are your choices.

1.) Habs win the stanley cup
2.) Habs draft Alexis Lafrenière
3.) Habs draft 9th and take your favourite prospect (let's say Holtz)
4.) Habs are eliminated in the playoffs

I've ranked them according to my preference. If you want to post in the thread, you should post your ranking and give your reasoning. However, I think it's inarguable that any habs fan should have the order that I posted. I would trade any player for #25. Alexis is the best prospect in the draft. To decide between losing the lottery and losing in the playoffs, losing in the playoffs makes no difference: someone else is shtooping the prom queen, not us. A higher pick is obviously better.

Now let's consider the likelihood of each happening. The above 4 choices form a partition, so the likelihoods must add up to 100%. Either the habs make the playoffs or they don't, and if they make the playoffs, either they win the cup or they don't. Let's give the habs a coin flip to win one of the next 2 games. The probability of the habs being in the playoffs would then be 75% because it would be 1-(probability that the pens make the playoffs) = 1 - 0.5^2 = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75.

If we make the playoffs, I give the habs about a 1% chance of winning the cup. So that would be a 0.75% chance of winning the cup as of right now. As of right now we have a 0.125*0.25 = 3.125% chance of drafting Lafrenière, and a 21.875% chance of drafting your favourite prospect at 9th. That leaves 74.25% chance of us being eliminated in the playoffs as of right now.

1.) 0.75%
2.) 3.125%
3.) 21.875%
4.) 74.25%

Here's what happens if we lose or win the play-in, respectively:

1.) 0%
2.) 12.5%
3.) 87.5%
4.) 0%

1.) 1%
2.) 0
3.) 0
4.) 99%

Let's multiply the rank by the likelihood to give us our expected payoff in the different scenarios. If we lose, our expected payoff is 0.125*2 + 0.875*3 = 2.875. If we win the play in our expected pay-off is 0.01*1 + 0.99*4 = 3.97. As of right now our expected payoff is 3.69625. This means that if we win the play in, we are actually more likely to get a less desirable result than we are right now.

Conclusion: It is rational to want the habs to lose the following two games to Pittsburgh.

If you disagree with my conclusion, I've provided all the options, the numbers and calculations. You can say why you disagree, substitute your own ranking, numbers and calculations and we can argue them.

 

[Habaneros]

Imagine if the Pens were loosing on purpose cause they see what our management don't... 12.5% at Lafreniere

Pens got put out in round 1 last year...that caused some "shake up" in the org....(bye Kessel...sparking rumours of trading Malkin)


In no way do i think the Pens are throwing for Laf.....

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

What a shitty time for Kotkaniemi and Suzuki to start taking the next step in their development as centers and then Clode goes all Scotty Bowman and drops Danault to the third line and boom, we are on the verge of eliminating Pittsburgh. It is really, really going to sting if we send them home and then lose in the first round. I guess that it's not over yet but man, the way that the Pens folded was concerning to me.

You just can't say what I bolded and call yourself a Habs fan. The way Suzuki and Kotkaniemi play should not leave any Habs fan disappointed. How long has it been since TWO under-20 CENTERS took the next step and started establishing themselves as the top-2 centermen for the Habs? Lafrenière or not, it's really, really encouraging.

 

[SpeedyPotato]

These are your choices.

1.) Habs win the stanley cup
2.) Habs draft Alexis Lafrenière
3.) Habs draft 9th and take your favourite prospect (let's say Holtz)
4.) Habs are eliminated in the playoffs

I've ranked them according to my preference. If you want to post in the thread, you should post your ranking and give your reasoning. However, I think it's inarguable that any habs fan should have the order that I posted. I would trade any player for #25. Alexis is the best prospect in the draft. To decide between losing the lottery and losing in the playoffs, losing in the playoffs makes no difference: someone else is shtooping the prom queen, not us. A higher pick is obviously better.

Now let's consider the likelihood of each happening. The above 4 choices form a partition, so the likelihoods must add up to 100%. Either the habs make the playoffs or they don't, and if they make the playoffs, either they win the cup or they don't. Let's give the habs a coin flip to win one of the next 2 games. The probability of the habs being in the playoffs would then be 75% because it would be 1-(probability that the pens make the playoffs) = 1 - 0.5^2 = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75.

If we make the playoffs, I give the habs about a 1% chance of winning the cup. So that would be a 0.75% chance of winning the cup as of right now. As of right now we have a 0.125*0.25 = 3.125% chance of drafting Lafrenière, and a 21.875% chance of drafting your favourite prospect at 9th. That leaves 74.25% chance of us being eliminated in the playoffs as of right now.

1.) 0.75%
2.) 3.125%
3.) 21.875%
4.) 74.25%

Here's what happens if we lose or win the play-in, respectively:

1.) 0%
2.) 12.5%
3.) 87.5%
4.) 0%

1.) 1%
2.) 0
3.) 0
4.) 99%

Let's multiply the rank by the likelihood to give us our expected payoff in the different scenarios. If we lose, our expected payoff is 0.125*2 + 0.875*3 = 2.875. If we win the play in our expected pay-off is 0.01*1 + 0.99*4 = 3.97. As of right now our expected payoff is 3.69625. This means that if we win the play in, we are actually more likely to get a less desirable result than we are right now.

Conclusion: It is rational to want the habs to lose the following two games to Pittsburgh.

If you disagree with my conclusion, I've provided all the options, the numbers and calculations. You can say why you disagree, substitute your own ranking, numbers and calculations and we can argue them.

I mean you can't go with anything else but the cup.. just doesn't really feel like the real thing this year, even when I watch the guys celebrate after a goal, it doesn't feel like they're into it that much. It's not the same without the crowd and the frenzy, plus there is the element of deserving to be there, which is done through an 82 game grind. We don't deserve to be there. If you're asking me about Laf or winning a real cup in a year or two, I'll take the cup. If you're asking me between winning the covid tournament or Laf, I think I go with Alexis.

 

[Deebs]

Pens are thinking 12.5% chance at Lafreniere. Habs are premature and this is going to sting for many years if we knock them out and give up our shot at getting the #1 OA... something we have not had in 40 years!

The Penguins aren't thinking about Laffy at all. They are getting outplayed, plain and simple.

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Think of it this way boys and girls....

Long term planing (shot at a star... something we have not seen in several decades!)
vs
Short term gains (Have not made the playoffs in recent years and we want to see our team do well)

This is as draining on my enthusiasm as just about anything else the past 27 years.

While we are seeing some good signs and breakout performances, it appears they are facilitated by playing a team that can’t seem to find its stride, or worse, isn’t really focused on finding it.

To me, a little run in Covid Cup isn’t meaningless, but a blown shot at Alexis would hurt like hell, because it is with him that more legitimate playoff runs in the future truly open up.

Montreal is no lock to “win” the first overall pick, but the odds are a lot less than 12.5 per cent to win The Cup. There are better teams out there, much hungrier than the Pens appear to be.

This run looks like a ticket stamped with “2nd Tier” future, in very black and very bold font.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is as draining on my enthusiasm as just about anything else the past 27 years.

While we are seeing some good signs and breakout performances, it appears they are facilitated by playing a team that can’t seem to find its stride, or worse, isn’t really focused on finding it.

To me, a little run in Covid Cup isn’t meaningless, but a blown shot at Alexis would hurt like hell, because it is with him that more legitimate playoff runs in the future truly open up.

Montreal is no lock to “win” the first overall pick, but the odds are a lot less than 12.5 per cent to win The Cup. There are better teams out there, much hungrier than the Pens appear to be.

This run looks like a ticket stamped with “2nd Tier” future, in very black and very bold font.

Many Habs fans are binge drinking right now and having a good time... but the massive hangover is coming if we beat the Pens and the next team we face is a more physical team.

Hey, I'm at the party too but it's one of those parties where I am being responsible for what's to come tomorrow

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Many Habs fans are binge drinking right now and having a good time... but the massive hangover is coming if we beat the Pens and the next team we face is a more physical team.

Well said.

Hey, I'm at the party too but it's one of those parties where I am being responsible for what's to come tomorrow

I understand, and I think you do as well, fans’ elation with the possibility of advancing and the play of some players we were all concerned about.

But beating Pittsburgh, a team with multiple Cup rings of apparent contentment, in the current state of things with Covid and a long layoff, has an unshakeable feeling of Fool’s Gold.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I understand, and I think you do as well, fans’ elation with the possibility of advancing and the play of some players we were all concerned about.

But beating Pittsburgh, a team with multiple Cup rings of apparent contentment, in the current state of things with Covid and a long layoff, has an unshakeable feeling of Fool’s Gold.

Imagine if we beat the Pens and the "team A" wins Lafreniere? I fear this will be bigger than Subban/Weber debates

 

[Deebs]

Think of it this way boys and girls....

Long term planing (shot at a star... something we have not seen in several decades!)
vs
Short term gains (Have not made the playoffs in recent years and we want to see our team do well)

Think of it this way... The players don't give a shit about the draft and there's nothing fans can do about it.

 

[bobholly39]

Okay I'm ready to concede - as of today - Habs no longer have the best odds at Lafreniere in the league

 

[Habs Halifax]

Think of it this way... The players don't give a shit about the draft and there's nothing fans can do about it.

Sure and I've said that too in other posts. It wasn't a players opinion narrative and I don't blame the players for trying to win

 

[BeliveauFan4ever]

Imagine if we beat the Pens and the "team A" wins Lafreniere? I fear this will be bigger than Subban/Weber debates

A colleague, a Pens’ fan, told me he wanted his team to win since their first pick had been surrendered for Zucker. Then last night he tells me that, on further inspection, there are protections built in so a first-round ouster means they’d be in the AL Sweepstakes.

And he was justifiably happy, while I could merely muster a silent grimace.

Winning when we shouldn’t - again - and led by a d-man I really like, but who should have been dealt for a draft bounty at the deadline.

To paraphrase Styx “is it any wonder I’m not crazy? Is it any wonder I’m sane at all.”

 

[Habs Halifax]

A colleague, a Pens’ fan, told me he wanted his team to win since their first pick had been surrendered for Zucker. Then last night he tells me that, on further inspection, there are protections built in so a first-round ouster means they’d be in the AL Sweepstakes.

And he was justifiably happy, while I could merely muster a silent grimace.

Winning when we shouldn’t - again - and led by a d-man I really like, but who should have been dealt for a draft bounty at the deadline.

To paraphrase Styx “is it any wonder I’m not crazy? Is it any wonder I’m sane at all.”

We are going to be the laughing joke team of the NHL for several years if we beat the Pens cause once we face a more physical team, we are toast with our soft flaws. Pens are not a physical team... very var from it!

We can easily tell our coach to play more kids and not push the players too much. Would you piss the players off if they get a sense of management not wanting to win? Possible but they will get over it.

It's just a difficult spot we are in. Hoping the hockey gods in Montreal come to save us from ourselves

 

[LaP]

Ours real odds are 0% cause we will beat the pens.

 

[mitchmagic]

Whether we lose or win this round, we're not drafting Lafreniere.

 

[Big Empty]

I’d want him to go to Arizona. Far away as possible.

 

[OldCraig71]

Pens are thinking 12.5% chance at Lafreniere. Habs are premature and this is going to sting for many years if we knock them out and give up our shot at getting the #1 OA... something we have not had in 40 years!

The thing is though, the Pens had the habs down and out for the 8 count last night. In the GDT we were convinced that our boys were done and then Drouin tips one home. Clode adjusted the lines and boom, we took over and looked like the better team right till the end, it was dominance. It's hard to say if Sid and company have the same desire that they once did, I really wonder about that, they have won so much and maybe they just don't have it anymore, it happens. A better landing spot for Lafreniere and I hate to say it is Edmonton. A young group that is surely on the rise and they would have Laf on a three-year entry level deal and maybe New York(R), the Pens are own the way down.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[OldCraig71]

You just can't say what I bolded and call yourself a Habs fan. The way Suzuki and Kotkaniemi play should not leave any Habs fan disappointed. How long has it been since TWO under-20 CENTERS took the next step and started establishing themselves as the top-2 centermen for the Habs? Lafrenière or not, it's really, really encouraging.

Well, you have every right to question my loyalty to this franchise, I will give you that. Leading up to this gimmicky tournament the consensus on this board was that we all wanted the best possible shot at drafting Lafreniere, fans like me, longtime followers wanted a potential superstar on our roster, and what's wrong with that? The Leafs, Jets, Flames and Canucks all have it but not us and most of us wanted it.

Many posters said that a shot at number one or even 9th overall was a certainty based on this team's regular season and many other factors. The one thing that kept coming up though was the discussion about the chance that Suzuki and KK might take the next step and how it would potentially be our downfall as far as getting a top 10 talent. Of course, I want all of our young guys to flourish, it's fun to watch them grow as a long time fan, but we need that top talent, the stud that gives us our identity, the best young French Canadian prospect in a very long time and to have him potentially this close to our fingertips and end up not even having a shot at getting him is as bad as it gets for me.

It is encouraging to see them do well but I really wanted a star, for many reasons and one of the biggest ones is the fact that the media and public would no longer accept excuses from ownership and management and the franchise would have to be better, the bar would be raised like it or not.

 

[1909]

1st or 9th is ten times better than beating Pittsburgh and draftin 16th.

Not by a wide margin (between 9th and 16th). And you certainly cannot guarantee me that they gonna draft 1st overall.

Two years ago, Habs had very good chances to draft top two... and finally drafted third.

Series against Pittsburg is far from being over. They still can lose the 4th and 5th game

 

[tinyzombies]

If we had traded Price for a big return before his giant contract, we probably would have finished near Detroit and all those teams that just got shafted. So that wouldn't have gotten us Lafreniere either.