HF Habs: What are our real odds for Lafreniere? (Use this thread for Lafreniere talk)

[WickedPegJets]

I'm not quite sure what people expect in terms of odds? In 2005 the Pens odds were 6.5% to land Sydney Crosby one of four teams with the highest odds. In what world is a 12.5% chance to land a possible franchise type player not good?

Wasn't there a dispute as to whether to award Sid the Kid to the New York Rangers and the League had to step in and decide for the Pens?

 

[Rapala]

Wasn't there a dispute as to whether to award Sid the Kid to the New York Rangers and the League had to step in and decide for the Pens?

That was not what I remember. The lockout created the lottery very much similar to Covid in this case. I don't remember if the Rangers had the worst record at the time. But according to Price Waterhouse or KPMG or whoever supervised the draw one of the Pens 4 balls gave them first over all. I never put much belief in the contentious noise that followed that draft.

 

[Rapala]

The only teams that have business in drafting Lafreniere are the Rangers, Canucks/Wild. Pens, Leafs, Oilers, Preds, Panthers, Jets all have very good teams and some of them are cup contenders. This is messed up.

They all have some very good players but I wouldn't go as far as calling them all good teams.

 

[Habs Halifax]

They all have some very good players but I wouldn't go as far as calling them all good teams.

Oilers, Pens, Leafs, Jets, Preds were cup contenders or are today still. No way they deserve a shot at #1OA. Not in my books. Preds and Jets have taken a step back but they are still legit top 15 teams in the NHL today or even fringe top 10.

 

[Wats]

Sorry, not buying that. Parity has taken a back door due to Covid-19 and this draft is going to be a mess. Pens were not a confident bunch when the found out they would face the Habs and this is not a surprise to them they are down 2-1. They were concerned about Price and got the NHL to change it from best of 3 to best of 5 for a reason.

No way the Pens, Oilers, Leafs, Jets, Preds should have a shot at #1OA.

You have the President trophy Bruins looking mediocre and the Stars looking horrible. This is a weird situation in attempt to save a lost season. Habs attempt at rebuild is one of the casualties, their reward... underserved playoffs. Playoff teams like Pens/Oilers/Leafs/Jets are other casualties as they lose a playoff run....their reward is chance at lottery and high pick.

 

[Rapala]

Oilers, Pens, Leafs, Jets, Preds were cup contenders or are today still. No way they deserve a shot at #1OA. Not in my books. Preds and Jets have taken a step back but they are still legit top 15 teams in the NHL today or even fringe top 10.

None of them are cup contenders IMO. Just saying.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You have the President trophy Bruins looking mediocre and the Stars looking horrible. This is all an attempt to save a lost season and Habs attempt at rebuild is one of the casualties.

This was about creating as much revenue as possible and they needed the Habs and Blackhawks in while they tried to make teams like the Pens happy... Best of 3 changed to best of 5 and Romanov not allowed to play (yes, we are not the only team but Romanov plays that spot we need... LD!)

They should have weighted the 8 team phase 2 lottery... not a terrible offset but the lower teams with less points that loose should have had the better shot. Call in insurance to avoid teams like the Pens, Oilers, Leafs, Jets, Preds from winning #1OA.

I just don't think teams from 10-15 should have a shot at #1OA. Thought this before Covid-19 and this new format is very risky in the parity formula

 

[Habs Halifax]

None of them are cup contenders IMO. Just saying.

I do think there are different waives of contenders. But in terms of the 2nd waive, the Pens, Oilers, Leafs, Jets, and Preds are in that 5-10 range mix. So yeah, no team outside of the bottom 10 should have a crack at #1OA. This is a mess waiting to happen and it will happen one day... maybe this year!

 

[Sorinth]

This was about creating as much revenue as possible and they needed the Habs and Blackhawks in while they tried to make teams like the Pens happy... Best of 3 changed to best of 5 and Romanov not allowed to play (yes, we are not the only team but Romanov plays that spot we need... LD!)

They should have weighted the 8 team phase 2 lottery... not a terrible offset but the lower teams with less points that loose should have had the better shot. Call in insurance to avoid teams like the Pens, Oilers, Leafs, Jets, Preds from winning #1OA.

I just don't think teams from 10-15 should have a shot at #1OA. Thought this before Covid-19 and this new format is very risky in the parity formula

They should have just waited until after the play-ins finished and then done the lottery.

Frankly they should just get rid of the lottery all together and go with a Draft Wheel.

 

[CHfan1]

I do think there are different waives of contenders. But in terms of the 2nd waive, the Pens, Oilers, Leafs, Jets, and Preds are in that 5-10 range mix. So yeah, no team outside of the bottom 10 should have a crack at #1OA. This is a mess waiting to happen and it will happen one day... maybe this year!

Well the 8th, 9th, and 10th worst teams this season all have 2-1 series’ lead, so there’s a good chance it happens this year.

 

[peate]

Someone overheard a conversation.

 

[Runner77]

You just can't say what I bolded and call yourself a Habs fan.

What's with all these posts where impromptu philosopher kings are conferring upon themselves the right to decide who can and who cannot be a Habs fan? Fans come in all stripes and beliefs. Live and let live.

 

[Runner77]

They all have some very good players but I wouldn't go as far as calling them all good teams.

Anyone who is better than the Habs, is a "good" team.

 

[Kimota]

What happens with the losing teams? Is there some other sort of lottery. Hopefully if we lose we can rewarded for finishing so low. Would make no sense for the Bruins and Leafs to have as many chances as the weaker teams.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I cant wait to be past august 10th, and stop worrying about which team will get lafreniere

 

[Runner77]

Recalculating ...

 

[WeThreeKings]

Lock this thread. We literally cant lose this series.

 

[Tyson]

Habs chances end today.

Pittsburgh is overrated

 

[WeThreeKings]

Habs chances end today.

Pittsburgh is overrated

Paper tiger

 

[Habs Halifax]

I cant wait to be past august 10th, and stop worrying about which team will get lafreniere

Agreed. It's a major distraction and I wish he just went to the Wings. I'd be able to enjoy these games a bit more

 

[Rapala]

Agreed. It's a major distraction and I wish he just went to the Wings. I'd be able to enjoy these games a bit more

I wish the season would have played out we might have had Laff already. We certainly would be assured a decent prospect.

 

[blarneylad]

They still haven't figured out how to run a lottery to protect talent spreading out.

You drafted 1ov? You can't get 1ov for 5 years. Same thing for teams that pick top 3-5, they should lose % the following year and the bubble teams that miss get more opportunity.

This is just a fluke year but it is a reality right now that Oilers, Pens or Laffs could get 1 overall. Meanwhile the fans in Habsland go another decade without a star player. Hopefully a depressed salary cap gives some options to Bergevin this offseason

 

[Habs Halifax]

Habs chances end today.

Pittsburgh is overrated

If we knock out the Pens today... Isn't that 9 out of the last 10 playoff games they lost? Sell and Rebuild time for the Pens if they don't get Lafreniere? Crosby, Malkin, Letang are getting very close to 35 and loosing to the Habs will hurt.

 

[salbutera]

The lottery should be...a lottery. Every team should have even odds of getting the 1st OA. Then the incentive is all about trying to qualify for the playoffs.

 

[Habs Halifax]

They still haven't figured out how to run a lottery to protect talent spreading out.

You drafted 1ov? You can't get 1ov for 5 years. Same thing for teams that pick top 3-5, they should lose % the following year and the bubble teams that miss get more opportunity.

This is just a fluke year but it is a reality right now that Oilers, Pens or Laffs could get 1 overall. Meanwhile the fans in Habsland go another decade without a star player. Hopefully a depressed salary cap gives some options to Bergevin this offseason

The draft lottery needs to be altered and after this messed up draft... a contender or very very good team is going to get Lafreniere. Wait for the shit show cause it's coming