HF Habs: What are our real odds for Lafreniere? (Use this thread for Lafreniere talk)

[Koivu11]

Someone tell Petry that we have an actual real chance at a franchise player please.

He wouldn’t even be on the team right now if Bergevin would’ve done what he needed to do at the trade deadline.

 

[Beaker]

So Penguins could end up with 1/8 odds of getting Lafreniere?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Told you.. f*** this team and f*** Sullivan, Matt Murray and Jack Johnson

Future of the team compromised by this BS

 

[donghabs98]

If Matt Murray has his way, the Habs chances are 0%

 

[WeThreeKings]

If Matt Murray has his way, the Habs chances are 0%

Unacceptable to keep him in the game after the 4th goal. I would have had him out after the 3rd.

 

[Schooner Guy]

Oilers with 87.5% chance to land #1 pick.

 

[donghabs98]

Unacceptable to keep him in the game after the 4th goal. I would have had him out after the 3rd.

Heck I would have just started Jarry game 1. If he struggles then you put in Murray. Now the Pens risk keeping a shaky goalie in net or putting someone in who is cold.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Heck I would have just started Jarry game 1. If he struggles then you put in Murray. Now the Pens risk keeping a shaky goalie in net or putting someone in who is cold.

They really played the wrong hand.. and they are paying for it. Sullivan won't go to Jarry facing elimination and he won't throw in any of his other d men for Johnson.

 

[Koivu11]

Heck I would have just started Jarry game 1. If he struggles then you put in Murray. Now the Pens risk keeping a shaky goalie in net or putting someone in who is cold.

I knew they should have started Jarry based on their play this season but I was told it had to be Murray because he won cups.
His experience has meant nothing so far in this series.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I knew they should have started Jarry based on their play this season but I was told it had to be Murray because he won cups.
His experience has meant nothing so far in this series.

You got Jarry and then if it goes south, go back to Murray and say you always had confidence in him because he's taken the reins like this before.

 

[Le compétiteur]

Start to look like 0% drafting Lafrenière while still having 0% winning the cup.

 

[Passchendaele]

Start to look like 0% drafting Lafrenière while still having 0% winning the cup.

That's how I feel. There's no way in hell they're winning the Cup with that roster. Might as well go all-in for Lafreniere.

They're about to screw that up too. Best french-Canadian player to come out of the draft in over twenty years.

 

[Riddum]

I was asking the question wrong. The question really is: What are the odds that a playoff will take place, we lose to Pittsburgh and then win Phase II of the lottery?



What is the formula for dependent probability?

If they are dependent, then P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B|A) which is the probability of A times the probability of "B happening if A has occurred," which is different than the "Probability of B if A has not occurred."

***

A-NHL playoffs will happen (let's say 25%)
B-Montreal loses to Pittsburgh (let's say 65%)

P(25%)*P(65%/25%) = 25%/2.6=‭‭9.62%

THEN

A-Playoffs happen and Montreal loses to Pittsburgh: 9.62%
B-We win Phase II of the lottery (12.5%)

P(9.62%)*P(12.5%/9.62%) = 9.62%/1.3=‭‭%7.4

***

If you change the odds:

A-NHL playoffs will happen (let's say 50%)
B-Montreal loses to Pittsburgh (let's say 60%)

P(50%)*P(60%/50%) = 50%/1.2=‭‭41.7%

THEN

A-Playoffs happen and Montreal loses to Pittsburgh: 41.7% chance of both of those things occurring
B-We win Phase II of the lottery (12.5%)

P(41.7%)*P(12.5%/41.7%) = 41.7%/0.30=‭‭12.51% (wut?)



***


If the playoffs don't take place: 12.5%

***

So, our odds are the same?

About 350%

 

[1909]

That's how I feel. There's no way in hell they're winning the Cup with that roster. Might as well go all-in for Lafreniere.

They're about to screw that up too. Best french-Canadian player to come out of the draft in over twenty years.

Only 12,5% chance of getting that 1st pick.... 87,5% chances they won't get it.

Detroit and Ottawa had way more chances to get that 1st round pick.... And they did not.

 

[Albatros]

Heck I would have just started Jarry game 1. If he struggles then you put in Murray. Now the Pens risk keeping a shaky goalie in net or putting someone in who is cold.

 

[Hannibal]

Lafreniere-Mcdavid

or

Lafreniere-Crosby

f*** the hockey gods who’s making us win.
f*** this organisation.

 

[Hannibal]

Only 12,5% chance of getting that 1st pick.... 87,5% chances they won't get it.

Detroit and Ottawa had way more chances to get that 1st round pick.... And they did not.

1st or 9th is ten times better than beating Pittsburgh and draftin 16th.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He wouldn’t even be on the team right now if Bergevin would’ve done what he needed to do at the trade deadline.

Bergevin didn't need to trade Tatar and Petry. If your narrative was true... We would not have Tatar, Suzuki, and Norlinder cause we would have traded Patch for a lower return to the Panthers at the deadline.

 

[Habs Halifax]

1st or 9th is ten times better than beating Pittsburgh and draftin 16th.

Agreed. Here is how I see it though.

- If we knock out the Pens but we are blown out in the next round, we are all going to be pissed off!
- If we knock out the Pens but we actually do compete very well in the next round and possibly reach the round after... then what? A little better feeling?

Yeah, I rather the shot at 1 and settle for 9. Not all in our fan base thinks this way but they also can't see the forest for the trees at the moment

 

[Habs Halifax]

Lafreniere-Mcdavid

or

Lafreniere-Crosby

f*** the hockey gods who’s making us win.
f*** this organisation.

If the hockey gods exist.... I'll be a believer if this goes 5 games and we loose in OT. They are messing with us then! lol

 

[DAChampion]

Lafreniere playing with Crosby or McDavid would actually be good for the game overall.

 

[Habs Halifax]

So Penguins could end up with 1/8 odds of getting Lafreniere?

Pens, Oilers, and Leafs might have a 3/8 shot at Lafreniere. 37.5% chance and that's just wrong.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Lafreniere playing with Crosby or McDavid would actually be good for the game overall.

Wouldn't mind the Oilers but it's still not fair with them getting all those #1 OA picks. Imagine if the Leafs get him?

 

[WeThreeKings]

If both Murray and JJ are in on Friday, we are moving on.

 

[OldCraig71]

What a shitty time for Kotkaniemi and Suzuki to start taking the next step in their development as centers and then Clode goes all Scotty Bowman and drops Danault to the third line and boom, we are on the verge of eliminating Pittsburgh. It is really, really going to sting if we send them home and then lose in the first round. I guess that it's not over yet but man, the way that the Pens folded was concerning to me.