HF Habs: What are our real odds for Lafreniere? (Use this thread for Lafreniere talk)

[Habs Halifax]

The lottery should be...a lottery. Every team should have even odds of getting the 1OV. Then the incentive is all about trying to qualify for the playoffs.

This is not in line with the parity strategy Bettman has implemented. Nothing wrong with the lottery except I would change one thing. Only the bottom 10 teams have a shot at #1 OA.

 

[salbutera]

I wouldn’t discount expanding number of teams qualifying for playoffs if this trial run is seen as being successful.

 

[blarneylad]

This is not in line with the parity strategy Bettman has implemented. Nothing wrong with the lottery except I would change one thing. Only the bottom 10 teams have a shot at #1 OA.

Parity? How do teams like the oil, avalanche and leafs have so much of the best players in the world while montreal has gallagher? The Salary cap has failed, revenue sharing has made it so our love for the habs as a fanbase pays for the salary of arizona coyotes and florida panthers players. Habs are literally funding teams elsewhere to keep their talent in low tax low pressure cities.

If you want parity remove the salary cap floor and create a luxury tax on teams that go over the cap. Our only way of attracting talent is money. The league took that weapon out of our arsenal. Bergevin is right only way to get talent is to draft it. But then they go and beat Pens and get a mid draft pick lol

 

[NORiculous]

With every victory the odds get worse.

Habs win today and it becomes 0%.

Since it is the most stupidest outcome, we know that it is going to happen.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Parity? How do teams like the oil, avalanche and leafs have so much of the best players in the world while montreal has gallagher? The Salary cap has failed, revenue sharing has made it so our love for the habs as a fanbase pays for the salary of arizona coyotes and florida panthers players. Habs are literally funding teams elsewhere to keep their talent in low tax low pressure cities.

If you want parity remove the salary cap floor and create a luxury tax on teams that go over the cap. Our only way of attracting talent is money. The league took that weapon out of our arsenal. Bergevin is right only way to get talent is to draft it. But then they go and beat Pens and get a mid draft pick lol

Parity would be worse if the lottery had equal odds like the post I replied too. Don't confused this with the latest stupid format due to Covid-19. This format is dumb and it's going to create a shit show. Only the bottom 10 teams deserve lottery balls

Said it before and will say it again... only a matter of time until some contender that slipped in one season gets a star at #1OA. And with this altered format, this might be the year.

 

[blarneylad]

Parity would be worse if the lottery had equal odds like the post I replied too. Don't confused this with the latest stupid format due to Covid-19. This format is dumb and it's going to create a shit show. Only the bottom 10 teams deserve lottery balls

I agree with you on only bottom 10 teams. And you shouldn't be able to drop in the draft more than 3 spots. But they should also stop teams from flunking out for 6-7 years and having abundance of top 4 picks in their roster.

2000-2010 was rough as a Habs fan. 2010-2020 was rough. This next decade has promise but nothing definite. We always bragged about our prospect pools. Remember Avtsin lmao I will believe it when I see it.

 

[bobholly39]

I wouldn’t discount expanding number of teams qualifying for playoffs if this trial run is seen as being successful.

I think 20 is probably the sweet spot, with 24 being too much.
I still say - i'm 100% ok with what they did this year. Unique circumstances + they wanted to put on a show. 24 teams was great. And even if having big markets like Montreal and Chicago was a consideration marketability-wise, who cares? I still think it's fine based on unique circumstances.

But in the future - I think 20 teams is a good compromise. Having the 5th team get eliminated from playoffs in the play-ins is a bit much. I think play-ins should be limited to teams 7-1o in the conference. And honestly - maybe even spice it up a bit and make it across conferences, somehow - so the best 8 teams league wide outside of top 3 in each division, compete for 4 wildcard positions.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I agree with you on only bottom 10 teams. And you shouldn't be able to drop in the draft more than 3 spots. But they should also stop teams from flunking out for 6-7 years and having abundance of top 4 picks in their roster.

2000-2010 was rough as a Habs fan. 2010-2020 was rough. This next decade has promise but nothing definite. We always bragged about our prospect pools. Remember Avtsin lmao I will believe it when I see it.

I'd do it this way. Pretty simple and fair IMO. And no team moves down more than 3 spots like you say.

* 1-5 get a shot at #1 OA
* 6-10 get a shot at #2OA
* 11-15 get a shot at #3OA

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think 20 is probably the sweet spot, with 24 being too much.
I still say - i'm 100% ok with what they did this year. Unique circumstances + they wanted to put on a show. 24 teams was great. And even if having big markets like Montreal and Chicago was a consideration marketability-wise, who cares? I still think it's fine based on unique circumstances.

But in the future - I think 20 teams is a good compromise. Having the 5th team get eliminated from playoffs in the play-ins is a bit much. I think play-ins should be limited to teams 7-1o in the conference. And honestly - maybe even spice it up a bit and make it across conferences, somehow - so the best 8 teams league wide outside of top 3 in each division, compete for 4 wildcard positions.

Think of it on the business side cause that's what they will do. I do believe they will do this 24 team play in round again or consider it with maybe some altercations. The extra TV ratings and revenue for one extra round is a big deal and hey... there is this US TV deal to be negotiated here soon . Right now, Sportsnet is paying more per year vs NBC. NBC is paying about $200M per year and Sportsnet is paying about $436M per year. Pretty sure Bettman is going to try to get $600 - $800M range for the new US TV deal and the 24 team play in round could be attractive to that package

Not of fan of Bettman in terms of hockey operations but he is good for the game to grow revenue on the business side of things.

 

[Gains]

I'm really conflicted because on one hand, I want us to lose. Not only because of Lafrenière, but also because #9 is better than #16. Also because I'm well aware that we need a real elite forward if we ever want to truly compete for the Cup.

On the other hand, I keep asking myself how different from Buffalo would we be if we just lost for a better draft pick ? I'm not talking about their tanking 2014-15 season, just in general.
Buffalo is a team that had A LOT of high picks, but they never cultivated a winning culture and you can see how they lack that now. Even with their players getting better, you can see how having no good culture for so long affected them mentally as a team. Some of their players are in prime age and literally have no notion of even competing for a playoff spot! They're a team that for the last 7 years didn't even play at least .500 hockey, so they don't even have experience in a playoff race.

I want a good pick in the end, but I also don't want to up being like the Sabres and for that, we actually need to win games. I feel like we, as fans, underestimate that aspect of hockey a lot. It's important for young players to win because they learn how playoff hockey is and they can prepare for it accordingly.

 

[SOLR]

I'm really conflicted because on one hand, I want us to lose. Not only because of Lafrenière, but also because #9 is better than #16. Also because I'm well aware that we need a real elite forward if we ever want to truly compete for the Cup.

On the other hand, I keep asking myself how different from Buffalo would we be if we just lost for a better draft pick ? I'm not talking about their tanking 2014-15 season, just in general.
Buffalo is a team that had A LOT of high picks, but they never cultivated a winning culture and you can see how they lack that now. Even with their players getting better, you can see how having no good culture for so long affected them mentally as a team. Some of their players are in prime age and literally have no notion of even competing for a playoff spot! They're a team that for the last 7 years didn't even play at least .500 hockey, so they don't even have experience in a playoff race.

I want a good pick in the end, but I also don't want to up being like the Sabres and for that, we actually need to win games. I feel like we, as fans, underestimate that aspect of hockey a lot. It's important for young players to win because they learn how playoff hockey is and they can prepare for it accordingly.

High picks don't correlate with the losing culture. What's happening in Buffalo is happening despite the high picks...

 

[Gains]

High picks don't correlate with the losing culture. What's happening in Buffalo is happening despite the high picks...

I'm really not saying they correlate, I'm saying that they had a lot of high picks because they're terrible in the regular season, and that's why they don't have a winning culture.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm really conflicted because on one hand, I want us to lose. Not only because of Lafrenière, but also because #9 is better than #16. Also because I'm well aware that we need a real elite forward if we ever want to truly compete for the Cup.

On the other hand, I keep asking myself how different from Buffalo would we be if we just lost for a better draft pick ? I'm not talking about their tanking 2014-15 season, just in general.
Buffalo is a team that had A LOT of high picks, but they never cultivated a winning culture and you can see how they lack that now. Even with their players getting better, you can see how having no good culture for so long affected them mentally as a team. Some of their players are in prime age and literally have no notion of even competing for a playoff spot! They're a team that for the last 7 years didn't even play at least .500 hockey, so they don't even have experience in a playoff race.

I want a good pick in the end, but I also don't want to up being like the Sabres and for that, we actually need to win games. I feel like we, as fans, underestimate that aspect of hockey a lot. It's important for young players to win because they learn how playoff hockey is and they can prepare for it accordingly.

If the Habs could handle more physical teams, I'd buy into this. But Pens don't play physical and I worry about the hangover after this party we got going on right now. So my mind is on this... how disappointed would we be if we loose 4 straight or look like fools in the next round cause we can't handle physical teams. Pens are different man and they are a good match-up for us

Giving up the small chance at Lafreniere could be the biggest mistake we have made in many years. If team "A" wins the lottery and we are playing against the Flyers or Lightning and loose 4 games. Just imagine... this place will be cancer

 

[tinyzombies]

If the Habs could handle more physical teams, I'd buy into this. But Pens don't play physical and I worry about the hangover after this party we got going on right now. So my mind is on this... how disappointed would we be if we loose 4 straight or look like fools in the next round cause we can't handle physical teams. Pens are different man.

Giving up the small chance at Lafreniere could be the biggest mistake we have made in many years. If team "A" wins the lottery and we are playing against the Flyers or Lightning and loose 4 games. Just imagine... this place will be cancer

I think this team is better than it has played. Drouin is starting to go now. If our top line is rejuvenated under Suzuki, Drouin continues to wake up like he did after scoring, and Danault/Lehkonen forms a formidable shut-down line... this team is just going to get better. Julien FINALLY tinkered with his 4th line, so I expect to see him try Hudon tonight - especially since like you said the Penguins are not a physical team.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think this team is better than it has played. Drouin is starting to go now. If our top line is rejuvenated under Suzuki, Drouin continues to wake up like he did after scoring, and Danault/Lehkonen forms a formidable shut-down line... this team is just going to get better. Julien FINALLY tinkered with his 4th line, so I expect to see him try Hudon tonight - especially since like you said the Penguins are not a physical team.

I think it depends on who we play against.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Parity? How do teams like the oil, avalanche and leafs have so much of the best players in the world while montreal has gallagher? The Salary cap has failed, revenue sharing has made it so our love for the habs as a fanbase pays for the salary of arizona coyotes and florida panthers players. Habs are literally funding teams elsewhere to keep their talent in low tax low pressure cities.

If you want parity remove the salary cap floor and create a luxury tax on teams that go over the cap. Our only way of attracting talent is money. The league took that weapon out of our arsenal. Bergevin is right only way to get talent is to draft it. But then they go and beat Pens and get a mid draft pick lol

Because those teams tanked and Montreal refuses to. Same reason why teams like Arizona and Minny don't have stars, but teams like Florida and Buffalo do.

I prefer the gold rule for drafting, but its wrong to blame the league for organizational short-shortsightedness.

 

[bobholly39]

Think of it on the business side cause that's what they will do. I do believe they will do this 24 team play in round again or consider it with maybe some altercations. The extra TV ratings and revenue for one extra round is a big deal and hey... there is this US TV deal to be negotiated here soon . Right now, Sportsnet is paying more per year vs NBC. NBC is paying about $200M per year and Sportsnet is paying about $436M per year. Pretty sure Bettman is going to try to get $600 - $800M range for the new US TV deal and the 24 team play in round could be attractive to that package

Not of fan of Bettman in terms of hockey operations but he is good for the game to grow revenue on the business side of things.

Well the round robin is absolutely not going to be coming back. It's fine this year - season didn't finish, so do something different for final seeding. It's logical, and i'm fine with it. But in a normal 82 game season - you can't have the team who wins president trophy going into a round robin and end up 4th in seeding - that's just dumb.

It's also a fine line between - if play-ins are only for lower spots, what are higher ranked teams doing? 1 week of rest? That's not always a good thing in playoffs, as teams who have too long breaks tend to get cold.

I still say 20 teams is the best approach - 24 is a bit much. 20 teams - and only teams who aren't in the play-ins are eligible for #1 draft lottery. Maybe compromise and say teams who lose the play-ins are eligible for #2 and #3 in the loto draft

There's definitely room for some improvements to the 16 team playoff format.

 

[Supersonic]

If Lafreniere goes to Toronto I’m going to puke. That is all

 

[tinyzombies]

Because those teams tanked and Montreal refuses to. Same reason why teams like Arizona and Minny don't have stars, but teams like Florida and Buffalo do.

I prefer the gold rule for drafting, but its wrong to blame the league for organizational short-shortsightedness.

Even if we tanked this year, we would be out of the Laf sweepstakes. It's just bad luck that stylistically we are a good matchup for the Penguins (with Price). If we were playing a more patient team with fewer holes like Boston, we would be in trouble right now. But Pittsburgh has given us time to find ourselves. Claude gave them every chance to beat us with his stodgy line combinations, but Price refused. Pitt should sit back and starve us with their excellent team defense, but they didn't take us seriously or thought they needed to go all out to beat Price.

 

[salbutera]

This is not in line with the parity strategy Bettman has implemented. Nothing wrong with the lottery except I would change one thing. Only the bottom 10 teams have a shot at #1 OA.

There is no parity strategy and there never was, it’s severely skewed strategy towards US based teams by design - it’s about how to keep US based teams most successful and build potential TV revenue stream by entering all top US TV markets.

If successful US TV revenue x-years from now would dwarf CDN revenue stream....highly unlikely IF at that.

 

[salbutera]

Even if we tanked this year, we would be out of the Laf sweepstakes. It's just bad luck that stylistically we are a good matchup for the Penguins (with Price). If we were playing a more patient team with fewer holes like Boston, we would be in trouble right now. But Pittsburgh has given us time to find ourselves. Claude gave them every chance to beat us with his stodgy line combinations, but Price refused. Pitt should sit back and starve us with their excellent team defense, but they didn't take us seriously or thought they needed to go all out to beat Price.

Pens are an middling overrated team...that’s the bottom line. Their D is not very good or deep, and goaltending is a weakness. Petry made a great shot in game 3, but that’s a weak goal to give up in playoff time.

Playoffs have always been about favorable matchups - championship teams more often than not have faced favorable matchups.

Last year TBay got an unfavorable matchup because their team makeup was very similar to the Leafs and CBJ is an Achilles heel to soft & skilled based teams.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Who should win Lafreniere?

1. Winnipeg Jets (Canadian team, actually had their odds picked during the first phase.. so pretty deserving).
2. N/A
3. N/A
4. N/A
5. N/A
6. N/A
7. N/A
8. New York Rangers (they get UFAs all the time because of their lustre. f*** them)

 

[1909]

If the Habs could handle more physical teams, I'd buy into this. But Pens don't play physical and I worry about the hangover after this party we got going on right now. So my mind is on this... how disappointed would we be if we loose 4 straight or look like fools in the next round cause we can't handle physical teams. Pens are different man and they are a good match-up for us

Giving up the small chance at Lafreniere could be the biggest mistake we have made in many years. If team "A" wins the lottery and we are playing against the Flyers or Lightning and loose 4 games. Just imagine... this place will be cancer

It's up to Pittsburg to play better... way better. Habs cannot afford to just show up and quit without a fight. And yes, Habs will fold up quickly vs a more physical opponent because they are not equipped at forward to fight along the boards and in front of the net.

As for the #1 pick... 87,5 % possibilities to not get it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

If the playoffs somehow get canceled (second wave) do the lottery odds get changed? What happens? If we get passed Pittsburg but the playoffs are canceled, do we still get 12.5% chance for #1?

Bottom 8 of the 16 will be in the lottery with the same odds (1/8)

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I'm really conflicted because on one hand, I want us to lose. Not only because of Lafrenière, but also because #9 is better than #16. Also because I'm well aware that we need a real elite forward if we ever want to truly compete for the Cup.

On the other hand, I keep asking myself how different from Buffalo would we be if we just lost for a better draft pick ? I'm not talking about their tanking 2014-15 season, just in general.
Buffalo is a team that had A LOT of high picks, but they never cultivated a winning culture and you can see how they lack that now. Even with their players getting better, you can see how having no good culture for so long affected them mentally as a team. Some of their players are in prime age and literally have no notion of even competing for a playoff spot! They're a team that for the last 7 years didn't even play at least .500 hockey, so they don't even have experience in a playoff race.

I want a good pick in the end, but I also don't want to up being like the Sabres and for that, we actually need to win games. I feel like we, as fans, underestimate that aspect of hockey a lot. It's important for young players to win because they learn how playoff hockey is and they can prepare for it accordingly.

The winning culture argument has go to stop.

Losing badly didn't stop Chicago nor Pittsburgh of instigating a winning culture once they accumulated enough talent.

Teams like Buffalo and Edmonton stay at the bottom because they're mismanaged.