Post-Game Talk: Wear your bag with pride! ... Oilers win 4-0

[McPuritania]

6-1-4

Belanger is a ravenous demon, relentlessy gnawing at all that's good and true. But worst of all, he drags down the performance of anyone who plays with him. Just look at this pattern.

Amazing.

Really though, we need to offload that dink before or at the deadline.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Lets just appreciate a brilliant game as a fanbase guys. Few of these moments that have occured. I just watched the game second time on CBC's great game in an hour feature. It goes even better with rum n coke.

For the long suffering younger fans that haven't seen this club do much I repeat, this is the start of something special.

This team is arriving and finding its way.

Now just bag your lady friend and we can't lose...

 

[The Perfect Human*]

Yeah, Smid and Schultz for the Norris, that's what I'm saying.

I also noticed that you can't answer a single variable in that rock did proof of yours.

Better luck next time.

Huh? rock did?

I didn't watch the 200 games to compile those numbers - whoever posted the stat did that. He's got information as to how the numbers were compiled, and even manipulated to get that % number he came up with. Until he reveals that it's an unproven stat.

That being said, it's the best available numerical assessment we have thus far - and I like it because it's made on actual witnessed breakout attempts (I believe he said it was at even strength, not sure), rather than random separate stats amalgamated into one. Is it any surprise that bottom 20 consists of the names that it does?

It's a stat that's going to target heavy minute players (# of touches) with poor break-out ability (# of turnovers/icings), without letting it be colluded by the partner's break-out passing ability.

Based on your original argument (each pairing has a stay-at-home guy and a puck-mover) - wouldn't Brent Seabrook, with all the touches he gets, end up in the bottom-20 of that group? No, because he's a decent puck-mover.

Another factor here that the stat-maker didn't include is the ability of forwards to receive a pass. If Nicklas Lidstrom was throwing break-out passes up the ice to Eric Belanger, he'd probably be in the bottom-20 as well.

I see the point you're trying to make. This isn't a perfect stat - it's a relatively new/untested one that could probably use some modification (again, I don't know the math behind his calculations).

But based on his description, and how he eliminated some major colluding factors - I feel it's the best one we got to quantify the "breakoutability" of defensemen.

But here's something I'd like to ask you - are Nick Schultz and Ladislav Smid not below-average puck-moving/breakout defensemen, based on your observations?

 

[DustyMartellaughs]

As a Canucks fan, I have to say I felt pretty good for your goalie. He got a shutout on a nationally televised Saturday night CBC game, which every Canadian kid goalie dreams of, and was nothing but class when he was on After Hours following a game a while back where he was pulled early.
Your team could have made it 8 or 9 zip. It may be too late for this year, but the Oilers are starting to look like things are clicking.
I know you guys have waited a long time for your team to gel. With a couple of moves I think the playoffs are a certainty next year, and I'll be more than happy to see realignment if that's the case.

 

[McPuritania]

Just thought I'd mention that I enjoyed that segment with Krueger. The reason I was really excited about, and liked him at the start of the season was reinforced tonight on after hours. It really helped me gain respect for the guy, I may not always agree with his decisions, but I respect the man making them. I really appreciated when he talked about how he is going to make mistakes, and how honest he is. That really resonated with me.

Respect.

 

[Brokenhead]

As a Canucks fan, I have to say I felt pretty good for your goalie. He got a shutout on a nationally televised Saturday night CBC game, which every Canadian kid goalie dreams of, and was nothing but class when he was on After Hours following a game a while back where he was pulled early.
Your team could have made it 8 or 9 zip. It may be too late for this year, but the Oilers are starting to look like things are clicking.
I know you guys have waited a long time for your team to gel. With a couple of moves I think the playoffs are a certainty next year, and I'll be more than happy to see realignment if that's the case.

Thanks, ya Dubey is a cool guy. Glad to see him redeem himself on HNIC.

 

[Brokenhead]

Huh? rock did?

I didn't watch the 200 games to compile those numbers - whoever posted the stat did that. He's got information as to how the numbers were compiled, and even manipulated to get that % number he came up with. Until he reveals that it's an unproven stat.

That being said, it's the best available numerical assessment we have thus far - and I like it because it's made on actual witnessed breakout attempts (I believe he said it was at even strength, not sure), rather than random separate stats amalgamated into one. Is it any surprise that bottom 20 consists of the names that it does?

It's a stat that's going to target heavy minute players (# of touches) with poor break-out ability (# of turnovers/icings), without letting it be colluded by the partner's break-out passing ability.

Based on your original argument (each pairing has a stay-at-home guy and a puck-mover) - wouldn't Brent Seabrook, with all the touches he gets, end up in the bottom-20 of that group? No, because he's a decent puck-mover.

Another factor here that the stat-maker didn't include is the ability of forwards to receive a pass. If Nicklas Lidstrom was throwing break-out passes up the ice to Eric Belanger, he'd probably be in the bottom-20 as well.

I see the point you're trying to make. This isn't a perfect stat - it's a relatively new/untested one that could probably use some modification (again, I don't know the math behind his calculations).

But based on his description, and how he eliminated some major colluding factors - I feel it's the best one we got to quantify the "breakoutability" of defensemen.

But here's something I'd like to ask you - are Nick Schultz and Ladislav Smid not below-average puck-moving/breakout defensemen, based on your observations?

These are Bruce McCurdey's numbers from cult of hockey. Pretty crooked numbers for Petry compared to the rest of our D.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtPHYLVCcL7tdFBuVERlRHB0UWctS2w5TldYUXhwS2c#gid=0

 

[The Perfect Human*]

These are Bruce McCurdey's numbers from cult of hockey. Pretty crooked numbers for Petry compared to the rest of our D.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AtPHYLVCcL7tdFBuVERlRHB0UWctS2w5TldYUXhwS2c#gid=0

This is pretty sweet. Didn't even know this exists.

Is there a blog post or something that explains his process/methodology behind this? And what each of these numbers mean?

 

[The Perfect Human*]

That McCurdey metric is sweet, I wish it'd take into consideration in touches - just to factor in the the endless back-and-forth passing that occurs on some pairings in preparation for a breakout pass *cough*Smid+Petry*cough*.

Smid/N.Schultz clearly below-average at moving the puck out of the zone, even in the rare opportunity that they're entrusted with it.

Another variable here is quality of competition. I feel Smid/Petry's numbers are going to be a little diluted here because of the tougher competition they're forced to up against.

 

[Brokenhead]

This is pretty sweet. Didn't even know this exists.

Is there a blog post or something that explains his process/methodology behind this? And what each of these numbers mean?

Ya, this post was from early in the season, but he explains his methods in it.
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...d-weve-got-the-zone-exit-numbers-to-prove-it/

And yes, this shows what a huge burden the Oilers put on Petry, and why Smid shouldn't get much more than 3 mil imo.

 

[tiger_80]

Lets just appreciate a brilliant game as a fanbase guys. Few of these moments that have occured. I just watched the game second time on CBC's great game in an hour feature. It goes even better with rum n coke.

For the long suffering younger fans that haven't seen this club do much I repeat, this is the start of something special.

This team is arriving and finding its way.

Was the best show this team has put on since the 2006 cup run.

 

[The Perfect Human*]

Another great thing about McCurdey's numbers is the /15min set of stats.

Indicates how often pairings are entrusted with breakouts/15min. Petry/Smid and J.Schultz/N.Schultz are each attempting ~10 breakouts/15min TOI.

But Nick Schultz is actually attempting more than Justin in this time (5.2:4.8), while Petry is responsible for nearly 70% of his pairing's breakout attempts.

1) Smid and Petry have a system set up where Petry is responsible for the breakouts. Probably because it's been established Smid is poor at this (60% control #). What I've noticed from watching is that opposition forwards put much more pressure on Petry than Smid while forechecking the Oilers breakout - this probably explains Petry's 66% control number. Hard to get a breakout started when you're facing more pressure for being "the breakout guy" on your pairing.

2) Nick Schultz, perhaps by virtue of being a veteran, is handling most of the break-out duty on his pairing. Weird because history dictates that this guy sucks at it (2011-2012 #'s i posted earlier). Either way, because each of these guys is handling breakout duties fairly equally on their pairings, perhaps neither one of them faces more pressure than the other (I haven't paid much attention to this from observation, nothing as glaring as the pressure Petry faces every time he starts the breakout). That lack of pressure has allowed a young Justin Schultz to build a decent 74% possession number. That combination has terrible ES performance in other stats though, and as time goes by J.Schultz will likely start to see a higher proportion of the breakout attempts on that pairing.

3) Another thing to look at is successful breakouts that are done by carrying or passing. Petry has a 0.38 carry/pass ratio. Whitney's is 0.24. Justin Schultz is 0.35. This is likely directly correlated with skating ability, as Whitney is slow as **** and with his great passing ability is rarely going to break-out using his skating. Petry and Schultz are both great skating defensemen, and as the best skater on the team, I feel J.Schultz would be better suited becoming a puck-skater rather than a puck-mover. I'd like to see that ratio move to 0.4-0.5. He really is most effective when skating the puck up the ice (AHL).

 

[Chooch]

As a Canucks fan, I have to say I felt pretty good for your goalie. He got a shutout on a nationally televised Saturday night CBC game, which every Canadian kid goalie dreams of, and was nothing but class when he was on After Hours following a game a while back where he was pulled early.
Your team could have made it 8 or 9 zip. It may be too late for this year, but the Oilers are starting to look like things are clicking.
I know you guys have waited a long time for your team to gel. With a couple of moves I think the playoffs are a certainty next year, and I'll be more than happy to see realignment if that's the case.

Playoffs aren't too late this year.

Can this team muster up a record solid enough in April in order to make the post season? That remains to be seen. If the Oilers can consistently show up every game, they've got a good shot.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Ya, this post was from early in the season, but he explains his methods in it.
http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...d-weve-got-the-zone-exit-numbers-to-prove-it/

And yes, this shows what a huge burden the Oilers put on Petry, and why Smid shouldn't get much more than 3 mil imo.

I'm sorry, this proves what?

Has anyone actually read the article associated with the numbers?

HINT: A boatload of context seems to be ignored.

 

[MCDAVIDISH]

I'm close to taking my bag off

 

[harpoon]

Tuned into the game halfway through the first period and almost had a heart attack when I saw the score.

Even more impressive than the four quick goals (Taylor Hall ) was the fact that the Canucks never had a sniff for the last two periods.
Sedins? Invisible. Burrows? Invisible. Edler? Invisible. Hansen was about the only guy making plays out there. I actually felt some pity for Luongo.

I wait patiently for the day Kevin Bieksa gets what's coming to him ....

 

[Ninety7]

I'm close to taking my bag off

no. dont jinx it.

 

[T-Funk]

I'm close to taking my bag off

That is a decision to make on April 27th.

 

[Turrican*]

Bag stays on until playoffs.
Lot of games until the season ends. I expect many bag worthy performances.

 

[McIce Whole]

I'm close to taking my bag off

No! We're on a 3 game winning streak and playing some of our best hockey. Keep rolling with it and wear it with pride

 

[CorpseFX]

Bieksa with some extra-cheapery going on from the highlights. what a piece of garbage.

 

[Chooch]

Bieksa with some extra-cheapery going on from the highlights. what a piece of garbage.

Lame how Mike Brown didn't mess around with him a bit

 

[Brokenhead]

Lame how Mike Brown didn't mess around with him a bit

To be fair, the nonsense stopped after the 1st period.

 

[Gord]

Calgary will be gunning for spoiler win monday, hope Oilers are prepared.

i think calgary will play poorly because they know that their management is tanking the rest of the season and both management and the fans want them to lose.


personally, I hope edmonton wins, but it goes into OT so calgary gets at least a point.

 

[Oiler Crude]

As a Canucks fan, I have to say I felt pretty good for your goalie. He got a shutout on a nationally televised Saturday night CBC game, which every Canadian kid goalie dreams of, and was nothing but class when he was on After Hours following a game a while back where he was pulled early.
Your team could have made it 8 or 9 zip. It may be too late for this year, but the Oilers are starting to look like things are clicking.
I know you guys have waited a long time for your team to gel. With a couple of moves I think the playoffs are a certainty next year, and I'll be more than happy to see realignment if that's the case.

Who is this guy, pretending to be a Nuks fan? Nice try but your being waaaayyyy too classy to be believable.