Ok, after a couple of days of digesting the Matthews contract, reading a good number of articles about how it affects the team moving forward and how it impacts the Marner deal I guess I'd have to say that I'm not as disappointed as I initially was. What I didn't take into sufficient consideration is the direction in which the league is moving; that younger players are consuming ever larger %s of Cap space, that this trend is accelerating and that while it will support the growth in 2nd contract values, Matthew's deal will not be the only one to have this effect. Some might consider this to be an apologist's take on the result, some may see it as the Leafs (and here I'd suggest that it's not Dubas alone: they've two of the certified 'cap experts' in Pridham and Gilman) trying to get ahead of the curve. Regardless, I think it's now safe to assume that Marner is going to be a well played young man in the near future. Ideally, I would have preferred seeing all of Nylander/Matthews and soon to be Marner signing for less than they did/will, but effectively we're seeing the Leafs still remain very competitive this year (serious contenders
) while being squeezed next year more than I'd like, but with the certainty of knowing that the following years, 2-5 of the Matthews' contract, the Leafs will have maintained a substantial portion of the core which the fan base has considered extremely talented.
If the contract landscape is shifting, which it appears to be, than it will be the Kadris and Gardiners of the new NHL Cap structure who are going to suffer. Make your hay before you're 28/9 and expect to see a drop in your value as you get older. These young kids are coming in with talent and fewer reservations as to their value and I think we're going to see the group this year leaving RFA status confirm the trend.
To this end, and being no cap expert, I suspect the Leafs may change their approach at the TDL this year. A rental may be more a consideration this year than it was prior to the Matthews deal. Next year will be tough, but at the right cost I'd argue that an expiring deal for the right player might be the way Dubas and company try to maximize this year's team's chances, unless you can offload Zaitsev.
We're 2nd in our conference, with a small gap growing, 4th overall in the league and 3rd ROW. Our next 10 games: Montreal/Rangers/Colorado/Vegas/Arizona/St. Louis/Washington/Montreal/Buffalo/Edmonton from which our only back to back is this Sunday against the Rangers following Montreal Saturday night. I consider all these winnable, but realize that would be an unlikely run if due to nothing but 'this is sport' logic. However, should the Leafs show some solid success in the next 5 game segment, I'm hoping the front office goes all in and tries it's best to secure a player they believe is an upgrade. Muzzin is a peach, Matthews clears up concerns, Marner will sign, we've got a solid core and support group, my fingers are crossed and my hopes are growing. Gawd it's fun being a fan of this team.