Post-Game Talk: Washington disaster

[Hischier and Hughes]

We don't have 5/6 offensively strong D-men on this team though.

Vatanen? That's one.
Mueller? Haven't looked at his point totals this year, but traditionally he doesn't score.
Severson? Scoring a lot this year, probably overachieving offensively a bit, but we can assume him.
Greene? I haven't really looked at what he has for points this year, but he's not good at offense anymore. 20 points would be a lot for him these days.
Lovejoy? Don't even need to say more about him.
Santini? Yeah, another guy that'd be lucky to go above the 20 point mark in a season.
Yakovlev? I guess we can call him an offensive guy, but we don't know how much of one he is because he hasn't been in the league for more than a handful of games yet.

At best it's gonna be Vatanen, Severson, Butcher and Yakovlev as far as offensively strong D-men go and I don't all 4 being in the same game very much.

I didn't say it but I was insinuating next year

Mueller-Vatanen
Smith-Severson
Greene-Santini

With Davies and Walsh coming up, both strong offensively. And the biggest difference? All skate without plugs up their asses unlike Butcher

 

[Emperoreddy]

I don't even know if that's that don't try hard as much as they play stupid. There have definitely been no shows, I'm not denying that. But they just make dumb decisions too often. Turnovers, not covering backdoor plays, terrible gap coverage, bad penalties, etc. So much of it is self inflicted damage. Even when they play well it's like 2-3 idiotic plays completely sink them. They can give up like half a dozen high danger chances, but half of them are odd man rushes that are played poorly, or breakaways that end up in the back of the net.

They have mental no-shows. A lot of mental no-shows.

 

[Emperoreddy]

any value you think Butcher has right now becomes obsolete when Smith comes up. Being the 6th-8th best on a squad that only has 4 dmen that should be on any roster isn't a resounding endorsement.

Teams will over pay for PP QBs, especially at the deadline. They should do it sooner then later before teams realize he isn’t going to grow into anything more.

 

[Jets012]

Goaltending situation is also bad. Kinkaid has played really well at times, but regression is to be expected. He's been on a lousy stretch recently and never has proven he can be a full time starter in this league. Schneider, enough said. He's been one of the worst in the league the last two years.

We got a bottom 3-5 or so goaltending duo right now. Don't know how it's going to get better either.

 

[MadDevil]

Kinkaid is an average goalie. Which on a competent defensive team would be fine. On a team that has as many f*** ups as we do, he would need to be really good/great. Which he was down the stretch last year and at times this year. Asking him to do it 50+ games a year as a starter when he's never done it before is probably not going to end well.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Goaltending situation is also bad. Kinkaid has played really well at times, but regression is to be expected. He's been on a lousy stretch recently and never has proven he can be a full time starter in this league. Schneider, enough said. He's been one of the worst in the league the last two years.

We got a bottom 3-5 or so goaltending duo right now. Don't know how it's going to get better either.

Why on earth is regression expected? Hes in his prime or just peaking

 

[Devils090]

Why on earth is regression expected? Hes in his prime or just peaking

Because on HF every player peaks at age 21

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

No goals on a 5 minute power play and 0 for 3 on 3 breakways. The chances were there tonight but we couldn't capitalize. This was all while the game was 2 to 1. Its crazy to think it somehow ended at 6 to 3. Our powerplay is so dreadful compared to others.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Why on earth is regression expected? Hes in his prime or just peaking

Because he started the season with a ton of luck - open nets that the other team just flat out missed on, tons of posts that would have been goals easily otherwise, and an abundance of shots that flat out hit him when he wasn't even moving to make the save. You can't sustain luck and his luck was max level while another of our goalie's luck was sub-minimum level with the D playing like idiots.

Now it's all coming back to reality. The Kinkaid we saw tonight is the Kinkaid we've known before. He didn't just get amazingly better to start this season. He is what we knew he was - not a starter for more than a limited stretch. We have 2 backups at best right now.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Because he started the season with a ton of luck - open nets that the other team just flat out missed on, tons of posts that would have been goals easily otherwise, and an abundance of shots that flat out hit him when he wasn't even moving to make the save. You can't sustain luck and his luck was max level while another of our goalie's luck was sub-minimum level with the D playing like idiots.

Now it's all coming back to reality. The Kinkaid we saw tonight is the Kinkaid we've known before. He didn't just get amazingly better to start this season. He is what we knew he was - not a starter for more than a limited stretch. We have 2 backups at best right now.

Im not judging a goaltender finely with THAT team in front of them, the way theyve been playing. Its just not fair

Kinkaid has been solid enough with what he has been given. How can anyone have confidence behind that if they dont even have it in themselves?

 

[ThePrideofStockholm]

That was fun, lets do it again tonight....

 

[Richer's Ghost]

Im not judging a goaltender finely with THAT team in front of them, the way theyve been playing. Its just not fair

Kinkaid has been solid enough with what he has been given. How can anyone have confidence behind that major lack thereof?

Think what you want. But my gut told me what the advanced stat sites said a month later. Coincidence? Maybe. Maybe not. I keep hoping for the best but it isn't happening.

 

[Bleedred]

Goaltending situation is also bad. Kinkaid has played really well at times, but regression is to be expected. He's been on a lousy stretch recently and never has proven he can be a full time starter in this league. Schneider, enough said. He's been one of the worst in the league the last two years.

We got a bottom 3-5 or so goaltending duo right now. Don't know how it's going to get better either.

Just off the top of my head, I'm gonna say Ottawa (they have f***in Mike McKenna playing games up there for their NHL team), I'm gonna say Vancouver (two mediocre backups) and St. Louis are probably worse. After that? It's pretty hard to find any that are definitely worse than ours. If we bring back this tandem again next season, don't expect to compete then either. I already don't want Schneider back, unless he puts up at least a .910% after this season, and I'd still buy him out after that in 2020, if we get an amnesty buyout, because I don't expect him to be be good again long term and consistently. Maybe he has one randomly good season left, but it's over 100 games of this now. That's roughly 30% of his career.

I don't want Kinkaid back, because I think he's gonna want more than we should be giving him, both in term and possibly in role. I would definitely be open to re-signing him and bringing on someone like Jack Campbell for cheap to platoon with him. Better guy gets the starters job. I do like Varlamov, but too injury prone. Wayyyy too injury prone. Misses a lot of time with injury. Still performs well when he's healthy, outside of one random season two years ago, but misses too much time with injury and he's gonna be 31 years old next year and because of his pedigree, he's gonna get more than he should in either term, years or both.

 

[Bleedred]

Think what you want. But my gut told me what the advanced stat sites said a month later. Coincidence? Maybe. Maybe not. I keep hoping for the best but it isn't happening.

What do the advanced stats sites say? From what some people are saying lately, we've been ''Unlucky'' and are worse than we really are this year, while not being as good as we really were last year. I even saw someone claim we're a better team than last year, just unlucky or something. We are outshooting teams, but how much of that is score effects right now? It's seldom we have a lead anymore and even when we do, I'm pretty sure we were outshot against Florida.

I will say we legit played amazing during the 4-0 start. We were leading almost every game (except for most of the Sharks game) and we were outshooting teams while doing it.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

What do the advanced stats sites say? From what some people are saying lately, we've been ''Unlucky'' and are worse than we really are this year, while not being as good as we really were last year. I even saw someone claim we're a better team than last year, just unlucky or something. We are outshooting teams, but how much of that is score effects right now? It's seldom we have a lead anymore and even when we do, I'm pretty sure we were outshot against Florida.

I will say we legit played amazing during the 4-0 start. We were leading almost every game (except for most of the Sharks game) and we were outshooting teams while doing it.

The article I saw said Kinkaid was far outplaying the team's stats. Hence, he was getting "lucky" and was due to regress to the norm. That's the quick of it. I said "yeah no *!#@" and moved on.

 

[Bleedred]

Why on earth is regression expected? Hes in his prime or just peaking

If his peak is a .912% goalie, he's probably not that good.

I don't wanna trash him, I like the guy, he's a fine backup. He's giving us his all for the money we're paying him. But there's two things (really one thing) that makes him probably look better than he is. And those things are that Cory looks shot, he's been a .905 goalie since November 17th of 2016. That's 98 games ago. That's also including his insane playoff series last year. Take that away and he's a .903% goalie over his last 94 regular season games played and that hot 25 games to start last year is probably the only thing keeping it above 90% since then. .905% over his last 98 games played (.907% over his last 110 since the regular season of 16-17 began and including playoffs) is identical to Marty's last 98 games in the NHL, including playoffs. And believe me I was one of the one bandleaders for Marty to get outta here too.

So, it's not Kinkaid's fault that he's the best goalie in the organization, but because he's the best goalie in the organization, he probably looks a lot better than he really is. Could have have performed any better than he has? Probably not. Are there goalies that could have? I think so, they just reside in this organization.

I really don't wanna bash him or anything, but I think it's a bit suspect to offer him a long term deal at significant money, but I know we need to do something else. And I don't know what that is right now. Like I said, Varlamov has too many injuries for what he'll get and he's already 31 and he's been really the last two years and almost every since the 13-14, with the exception of one year. Bobrovsky is probably gonna get something just short of Carey Price, who will also likely not survive the round of amnesty buyouts during the next CBA. Casey DeSmith could be worth a look? Still a limited sample size with him. I could get behind a Kinkaid/DeSmith platoon or a Kinkaid/Campbell duo.

Something like Kinkaid/Chad Johnson or Kinkaid/McElhinney or any other random backup behind Kinkaid is gonna be pretty scary. And that includes a Kinkaid/Blackwood tandem. What I'm saying is if we sign Kinkaid, we need a viable insurance policy goalie behind him. Not some Kinkaid/Johnny Backup tandem, that's for sure.

 

[Bleedred]

The article I saw said Kinkaid was far outplaying the team's stats. Hence, he was getting "lucky" and was due to regress to the norm. That's the quick of it. I said "yeah no *!#@" and moved on.

Oh, okay. I thought you were speaking of skater/team advanced stats. I think that's fair to say. He was a .920+ guy for a while and I didn't think that was gonna last. He's never even had a .920% year and I don't expect him to start in his age 29 season. If he did, it would probably in much more limited work.

It's not his fault. It's just what happens when your random beater car becomes more reliable than your really nice, expensive and garage kept beauty. Your beater car might not get you across the country or even up the coast, but your nice one ain't getting you out of town or even to the grocery store. So you're forced to take your beater car on all these excessive and high mileage trips.

 

[OmNomNom]

just saw the tom wilson hit

what the f***, was there no response?

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

If his peak is a .912% goalie, he's probably not that good.

I don't wanna trash him, I like the guy, he's a fine backup. He's giving us his all for the money we're paying him. But there's two things (really one thing) that makes him probably look better than he is. And those things are that Cory looks shot, he's been a .905 goalie since November 17th of 2016. That's 98 games ago. That's also including his insane playoff series last year. Take that away and he's a .903% goalie over his last 94 regular season games played and that hot 25 games to start last year is probably the only thing keeping it above 90% since then. .905% over his last 98 games played (.907% over his last 110 since the regular season of 16-17 began and including playoffs) is identical to Marty's last 98 games in the NHL, including playoffs. And believe me I was one of the one bandleaders for Marty to get outta here too.

So, it's not Kinkaid's fault that he's the best goalie in the organization, but because he's the best goalie in the organization, he probably looks a lot better than he really is. Could have have performed any better than he has? Probably not. Are there goalies that could have? I think so, they just reside in this organization.

I really don't wanna bash him or anything, but I think it's a bit suspect to offer him a long term deal at significant money, but I know we need to do something else. And I don't know what that is right now. Like I said, Varlamov has too many injuries for what he'll get and he's already 31 and he's been really the last two years and almost every since the 13-14, with the exception of one year. Bobrovsky is probably gonna get something just short of Carey Price, who will also likely not survive the round of amnesty buyouts during the next CBA. Casey DeSmith could be worth a look? Still a limited sample size with him. I could get behind a Kinkaid/DeSmith platoon or a Kinkaid/Campbell duo.

Something like Kinkaid/Chad Johnson or Kinkaid/McElhinney or any other random backup behind Kinkaid is gonna be pretty scary. And that includes a Kinkaid/Blackwood tandem. What I'm saying is if we sign Kinkaid, we need a viable insurance policy goalie behind him. Not some Kinkaid/Johnny Backup tandem, that's for sure.

.912 behind this effort?

thats amazing to me

 

[Maine Fan]

I want to, I'm just afraid of his replacement being someone like Desjardins or even Kowalsky.

Does it matter?

 

[My3Sons]

just saw the tom wilson hit

what the ****, was there no response?

Who did he hit?

 

[Maine Fan]

Send the kid back to Bing please

After 5 + minutes when he is nervous because it's his first game.

 

[Bleedred]

Does it matter?

Only if you think we can turn the season around.

 

[Bleedred]

.912 behind this effort?

thats amazing to me

Meh. That’s what a lot of people think, but there are certainly worse teams that this that have better goalie performances. And there are also better teams with worse goalie performances. Like the Blues.

 

[Bleedred]

just saw the tom wilson hit

what the ****, was there no response?

He was thrown out of the game. The only response we needed at that time was to score on the 5 minute major and it was a complete and utter failure.

Who did he hit?

Seney.