Was the Lucic - Neal trade actually a win for the Flames?

[HighLifeMan]

From the bottom six?

He's getting all his points on the PP.

A good portion of Lucic's points have been completely flukely as well. Like the 4th Calgary goal last night.

He's bad and the contract is unmovable and terrible.

Neal has 12 even strength points playing 13 1/2 minutes a game with his two most common linemates being Ryan Nugent Hopkins and Connor McDavid (64% offensive zone starts)

Lucic has 9 even strength points playing 11 1/2 minutes a game with his two most common linemates being Derek Ryan and Dillon Dube (48% offensive zone starts)

 

[ElysiumAB]

stunning work. 5 points per month, not including April. Hall of fame numbers for sure

In another thread you said, "Except Neal has history of choking after the first two months. Look at his 2017-2018 season with Vegas. The guy had 7 goals outside of November."

... He had 13.

Do you just make up numbers and say "FACTS"?

 

[Duffalufagus]

Lucic had more points last night than Neal has in all of 2020.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

It was a win for both teams.

 

[blankall]

From the bottom six?

He's getting all his points on the PP.

A good portion of Lucic's points have been completely flukely as well. Like the 4th Calgary goal last night.

He's bad and the contract is unmovable and terrible.

Lucic has 9 of 16 points at even strength. When he does play the PP, he plays with bottom sixers typically. The Flames will stack their best 4 forward son the PP#1 unit, which leaves the #2 unit with Ryan, Lucic, and whichever two other forwards from 5-12 that are playing well. Even on the PP, Lucic is getting assisted by bottom sixers like Ryan and Dube.

When Lucic scores points, it's with guys like Dube, Backlund, Mangiapane, Ryan, and other bottom six players. When Neal gets points, McDavid is almost always on the ice.

 

[Duffalufagus]

Also, Lucic destroys Neal on almost every metric outside of power play points. Neal is a terrible hockey player and a complete liability anywhere other than the powerplay. Lucic bring way more intangibles and the advance stat nerds have confirmed that.

 

[blankall]

I didn't say that... but for the last ~2 months he's been off the top PP, but spending about half the games on McD's wing with Kassian... and the other half the games on the third line (with Chaisson or Archibald elevated).

His offense drying up may have more to do with him needing to score at ES vs the narrative that says his contributions are 100% power play. To his credit, he has 7 ES goals and 5 assists...

Furthermore, McDavid doesn't make every player magically produce, case in point... Lucic.

Lucic had 50 points playing with McDavid. He had 34 the following year, when he was still playing with McDavid for a significant amount of the season. Lucic started with 17:10 of TOI (2:44 PP), then 15:58 (2:08), then 13:14 (1:21 PP).

Neal is looking unlikely to hit 40 points at his current pace. He gets 16:39 and 3:05 of PP.

So Neal is getting more time than Lucic got in his high, and is very unlikely to hit 50 points. Lucic didn't drop off until his time was also cut. You can argue there is a reason for that, but to state that Neal is taking more advantage of the opportunities doesn't jive with the numbers. Neal is doing less with more PP opportunity than Lucic did.

 

[Bank Shot]

So Neal is getting more time than Lucic got in his high, and is very unlikely to hit 50 points. Lucic didn't drop off until his time was also cut.

That's totally backwards. Lucic fell off a cliff and they played him with McDavid for a long time afterwards trying to get him going again.

He's done despite having a few pucks bounce in off him this season.

 

[guzzy]

In another thread you said, "Except Neal has history of choking after the first two months. Look at his 2017-2018 season with Vegas. The guy had 7 goals outside of November."

... He had 13.

Do you just make up numbers and say "FACTS"?

LMFAO. Do you really have nothing better to do than back check peoples historical comments to prove points? Sorry, sometimes I type without studying stats. You got me, FACTS Police. I don't know if I am oddly impressed or worried for humanity. Either way, I will just sit back and laugh.

I made a mistake because I didn't fact check my statement. I thought Neal had a quicker start in Vegas. He had 22 goals in 4 months and 3 goals in the final 3 months. I checked my stats this time just for you. Don't want to offend. Even with corrected stats, Neal still sucks in the second half of the season. My point still stands.

 

[ElysiumAB]

Lucic had more points last night than Neal has in all of 2020.

Neal has been injured all of February.

Regardless of that.....

Neal scored more goals in the first 4 games of the season than Lucic has for the ENTIRE YEAR.

 

[blankall]

That's totally backwards. Lucic fell off a cliff and they played him with McDavid for a long time afterwards trying to get him going again.

He's done despite having a few pucks bounce in off him this season.

And Neal's play has fallen off a cliff...yet he keeps getting the good opportunities.

 

[ElysiumAB]

LMFAO. Do you really have nothing better to do than back check peoples historical comments to prove points? Sorry, sometimes I type without studying stats. You got me, FACTS Police. I made a mistake because I didn't fact check my statement. I thought Neal had a quicker start in Vegas. He had 22 goals in 4 months and 3 goals in the final 3 months. I checked my stats this time just for you. Don't want to offend. Even with corrected stats, Neal still sucks in the second half of the season. My point still stands.

You know you can just say, "Sorry, all of my posts are full of numbers that I actually just made up..."

Your point does not still stand, because everything you posted is imaginary and didn't happen. lol

 

[guzzy]

You know you can just say, "Sorry, all of my posts are full of numbers that I actually just made up..."

Your point does not still stand, because everything you posted is imaginary and didn't happen. lol

except he did only score 3 in the last 3 months of 2018. That's a fact. I double checked just for you. You really need to get out more. I am starting to feel bad for you. Not really.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Yes, the Flames absolutely won the trade of 20 goal scorer James Neal for.. hang on, let me check my notes...

6 goal Milan Lucic.

 

[Czechboy]

Lucic is on pace for 23 points this season and has an ironclad NMC. To my knowledge, he needs to be protected in Seattle expansion and is 'buyout proof'. I can't imagine Flames fan will be happy when they protect Lucic and lose a different player.

Neal currently has 19 goals.. he might score more goals than Lucic does points (23). Pretty sure he can be exposed in expansion draft and be bought out with much less penalty.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Lucic has exceeded my expectations so far this season. I still don't think he's good and I still don't love that trade but he's on pace to outpoint and outgoal Neal's numbers last year in Calgary for 500K less. That is enough for me to deem it a "win" as long as we're defining win as not a catastrophic f*** up.

Neal has obviously been good for the Oilers as well. Believe their PP is still 1st in the league. As much as he is largely useless even strength that doesn't mean you can totally discount the special teams contributions just to fit an argument.

At this point in time it's hard to say the trade hasn't benefited both teams at least a little. Couple years from now it might be a totally different story.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

It certainly was not a loss. Lucic can handle a regular shift 5-on-5. Neal is completely useless at even strength.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

If Lucic ever starts to play hard against his old teams this would be a massive win for the flames, Lucic's worst games this year have been against LA,Boston and Edmonton. He needs to forget friendships during the season.

 

[iCanada]

I'm starting to think that the money we raised for Calgary children in poverty in response to Calgary renting a billboard to "live rent free in Edmonton's head" might have been better put into a mental health charity in the region.

 

[ElysiumAB]

except he did only score 3 in the last 3 months of 2018. That's a fact. I double checked just for you. You really need to get out more. I am starting to feel bad for you. Not really.

The post I corrected you on literally said, "Look at his 2017-2018 season with Vegas. The guy had 7 goals outside of November."

So, I looked - and you're wrong, again.

And instead of saying you're wrong you try a passive insult. Grow up.

 

[ElysiumAB]

Lucic is on pace for 23 points this season and has an ironclad NMC. To my knowledge, he needs to be protected in Seattle expansion and is 'buyout proof'. I can't imagine Flames fan will be happy when they protect Lucic and lose a different player.

Neal currently has 19 goals.. he might score more goals than Lucic does points (23). Pretty sure he can be exposed in expansion draft and be bought out with much less penalty.

"Advantage Calgary."

 

[BruinsFan37]

Neil finishes with 21 goals, Lucic finishes with 11 (Conditions of the pick are met -- barely).

It was a garbage for garbage trade. Calgary's garbage (Neal) worked a little better in Edmonton and Edmonton's garbage (Lucic) works a little better in Calgary.

I still maintain that, both Neal and Lucic's contracts are the primary thing that makes them so "awful". At the veteran's minimum, or even one million a year, I think most GMs would take a flyer on Lucic. Neal on the other hand, is almost exclusively a power play specialist at this point, so while there are teams that can/could use him, it's far fewer than Looch.

 

[dem]

The fact that they can buy out Neal means its a win for the Oilers. Neal could have 0 points and its still a win.

If the Flames somehow weasel out of the Lucic contract... maybe it gets better for them.

Both players stink...

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I can truely say I'm not missing Neal one bit, and I'm alright with Lucic. That alone makes it plus. I'm going to wait & see (hopefully) how Lucic changes this team during playoffs before claiming any victory though.

Add in the fact we save $$ each year on it, and the likelyhood that once Neal is moved down the roster he's going to disappear completely and the needle starts to point in our direction.

 

[darkwingduck]

Edmonton and Calgary lost when they signed Lucic and Neal to those deals respectively. Neither will be a win, trading them for each other isn't a win, depending on their play it can only be viewed as slightly less disastrous.