Was the Lucic - Neal trade actually a win for the Flames?

[DropIt]

Simply put Calgary lost this trade, unless Lucic achieves the unthinkable and starts scoring 40 points a season.

However, as of today I doubt many Flame fans would go back and reverse that trade. Lycic has been better for us than Neal ever was.
The negative is that sticking the Oilers with an unhappy Lucic is probably worse for them than sticking Calgary with an unhappy Neal

 

[McDNicks17]

I'm just saying you're a hypocrite in your post for slamming the omission of statistics after someone literally shoots 2x more efficiently than the greatest goal scorer of this generation, but also adding in an asterisk to another item as it's viewed as an unsustainable or statistically 'unlucky' fortune.

It's perfectly valid to look at performances outside of 15-20% game stretches to review an entire players' performance.

My overall point, which seems to be eluding a lot of the Oil faithful, is this isn't a win for either team. Both teams got a player their respective management team coveted, neither player in a perfect world is being paid North of 5 million a season or should be near a top 6 (which thankfully, Calgary hasn't deployed Milan as such this season).

There's nothing hypocritical about it(at least on my end). If we're purposefully omitting his best stretch of the season, we should obviously acknowledge that his worst stretch is part of the cherry picked range.

For it to be hypocritical, I would have to want you to include October and exclude November just like you've done with excluding Lucic's bad October and included his last two games where he had close to 1/3rd of his season's production.

Your overall point hinges on your cherry picked stats which obviously don't match reality. The Oilers absolutely won the trade. Neal has been a vastly better player this season.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Lucic can easily be bought out, I'm really confused about the "buyout proof" narrative.

Lucic's buyout is expensive for three years and then non-existent for three. Neal's buyout is less expensive than Lucic's for the first three years and then remains expensive for the next three.

At the end of the day, both buyouts cost their respective teams around the same amount. The Flames have a higher initial commitment but are then largely free of it sooner. The Neal commitment remains substantial on the Oilers' cap for twice as long.

Am I missing something?

No you're not missing anything, it's just a fun narrative that people seem to cling onto. A Lucic buyout is worth 14 million to Calgary, a Neal buyout is worth 11.5 million for Edmonton. Really only the first three years Calgary holds extra cap (about 2 million) and after that it's like a 400k a year type thing for a number of years. While it sucks, it'd be a last resort.

Just a note, in terms of him waiving for the expansion draft; it's a non-issue. The dude lives in LA in the off-season and during breaks, and isn't a guy who's made Alberta home for the past 3-4 years regardless. The guy won't force Calgary's hand at making them protect him... on a personal note, he knows what he is at this stage of his career.

The funny part is, if he does indeed decide he won't waive a buyout for Lucic comes in at about 9 million bucks over 4 more years. Neal if he's bought out next year is almost 8

If Calgary buys out Lucic, is Edmonton on the hook for any of the cap/money?

NMC = Lucic has to agree to the buyout.

 

[Captain Fantastic]

Neal is on IR now and it's still a better deal for the Oilers. Although Neal hasn't brought much lately.
I do feel for Lucic though. He wanted to do well for the Oil. He shed weight and tried to improve his speed in the off season while with the Oilers. He just doesn't have it anymore. 4th liner. Tries hard on the Flames too for what I've seen.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

NMC = Lucic has to agree to the buyout.

That is 100% false. Lucic does not have to agree to the buyout. He can be bought out in either of the offseason buyout windows. Since he has a NMC, however, he can be bought out without being waived first.

 

[Wayne Primeau]

If Calgary buys out Lucic, is Edmonton on the hook for any of the cap/money?

Yes.

Year 1: $687.5k
Year 2: $500k
Year 3: $687.5k
Years 4-6: $62.5k

That said, I don't know why Calgary would buy out Lucic at this juncture.

 

[HighLifeMan]

NMC = Lucic has to agree to the buyout.

Wrong.
Players with NMC's are not exempt from a buyout or contract termination

 

[Spikey]

Neal is the better player than Lucic. So far though it seems like the trade is working out for both teams.

 

[Aceboogie]

Wrong.
Players with NMC's are not exempt from a buyout or contract termination

Correct. If Flames want to buy him out, they are able to. They just have to pay a bajillion dollars and destroy their cap to do so. But they are able to, nonetheless

 

[DJJones]

Simply put Calgary lost this trade, unless Lucic achieves the unthinkable and starts scoring 40 points a season.

However, as of today I doubt many Flame fans would go back and reverse that trade. Lycic has been better for us than Neal ever was.
The negative is that sticking the Oilers with an unhappy Lucic is probably worse for them than sticking Calgary with an unhappy Neal

How do you lose a trade but not want to reverse it?

 

[Wayne Primeau]

 

[McDNicks17]

I'm not sure if that's an issue with the stat or his teammates, but the player below should not be leading a team in anything.

 

[DJJones]

I'm not sure if that's an issue with the stat or his teammates, but the player below should not be leading a team in anything.

haha that's hilarious. But if you took Lucic out of that image that is a decent order of Flames players with the eye test.

I would have Lindholm higher. Lucic down by Hamonic. Probably due to November when the entire team sucked except for Dube - Ryan - Lucic. Only line that looked like they knew what a puck was.

 

[3074326]

Nobody won this trade. One team got James Neal and the other got Milan Lucic.

 

[DropIt]

How do you lose a trade but not want to reverse it?

Contract wise it's a loss.

You dont reverse it because it makes you a better team. I'd much rather overpay a player to be useful than overpay one to sit in the press box or cost you games.

 

[Aceboogie]

woof, didnt realize how bad Gaurdeau and Monohan were this season. Hanifin as well

 

[SecretOilersFan]

Really at this point who cares. They both are terrible contracts both our stupid teams signed. No one wins. James Neal would probably be much worse on CGY than even Lucic but he was very good for what we needed him for earlier this season. Hopefully he can come back and help out on the PP again.

 

[Tage2Tuch]

Lol!!! Lucic has 2 good night's and boom this thread.

he actually provided many good points, it wasn’t just two good nights.

I know it’s the cool thing to do to just hate on lucic and I get how everyone growing up today or who hasn’t played doesent understand the physical competent and why it matters so much....this trade when it happens had Edmonton winning all over it, Neal is way better offensive player then lucic so when the season started I was hardly surprised.

but again, the OP actually made several good points why it’s closer then one originally thought. Hardly just a good couple of games, that’s like minimizing neals impact earlier in the season to “a good couple of weeks”.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Yes the trade worked out for the flames but it's still a win for the Oilers as well trades dont always have a loser

Unless one of the teams acquires a 31 year old Lucic with term, then that team is the trade loser

 

[Bond]

Well that is a nice stat on how crappy the Flames have been so far...

 

[Aceboogie]

Well that is a nice stat on how crappy the Flames have been so far...

Great self own "Look at how good Lucic is here! But also Johhny Gaudreau is marginally better than Zac Rinaldo"

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

It's no longer one of the worst trades in recent memory but it's still a bad deal for Calgary. The expansion draft protection matters.

 

[K1984]

Must not have watched the past few Calgary games

Oh. Didn't know it was a recent thing. What happened in the other 50 games?

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

Is it okay to say both suck, and really it might be a tossup? Either way, Neal provides next to no value on the ice so I don’t see how people ever saw this as a massive win for Edmonton

 

[Wayne Primeau]

The way Lucic is playing, I wouldn't have any issue protecting him in the expansion draft. However I'd be pretty darn surprised if he doesn't agree to waive for it.