The Athletic Vogl - Who Stays, Who Goes

[BananaSquad]

I really hate the way the local media seems to be demanding we ship out Girgensons and Larsson. Call me crazy, but I’m in favor of not parting ways with 2 of the only players on the team that actually did their job this season.

They have to score to tho.. every line needs to produce

 

[Chainshot]

After the Blues traded the Dynamic Duo (Sobotka and Berglund) I remember Blue's fans being ecstatic over getting rid of them...They were saying that most likey they would have been fourth liners or even more likely sitting...To this day I still can't figure out why so many Sabres fans were so excited after getting these two...Heck, I remember fans making up lineups before the season started with these two on the top two lines lolololol....Shiney new toy syndrome I think...It's bad when the fans get it but even worse when a GM and coach both get it too.

It helped to have press types hyping it up. Vogl and PHam both were eager to sell that shit as gold.

 

[Chainshot]

They have to score to tho.. every line needs to produce

I know right? Like, it would be crazy to look at someone who had nearly 70% of his shift starts in the offensive zone and was WORSE than those two in terms of GF/GA right? Or how about the 2 guys who were twice as bad at GF/GA? Or the one making $6M a season who was worse at GF/GA ratio than those two?

Heaven forbid Sheary (-12 with his easy f***ing minutes... get this guy off the team), Thompson(-20), Sobotka (-20), Okposo (35 GA) and Mittelstadt (-11) were all worse than Girgensons (on for 33 GA, -10 differential) and Larsson (32 GA, -6 differential) but in easier use and more offensive opportunity.

It isn't just that their line has to score more. The cavity is not their line.

 

[jBuds]

I rest my case.

This is where we are at now, as a fan base.

An eV RAPM chart “I rest my case”

 

[Icicle]

This is where we are at now, as a fan base.

An eV RAPM chart “I rest my case”

Well, the king of chart slams is back

 

[BananaSquad]

I know right? Like, it would be crazy to look at someone who had nearly 70% of his shift starts in the offensive zone and was WORSE than those two in terms of GF/FA right? Or how about the 2 guys who were twice as bad at GF/GA? Or the one making $6M a season who was worse at GF/GA ratio than those two?

Heaven forbid Sheary (-12 with his easy ****ing minutes... get this guy off the team), Thompson(-20), Sobotka (-20), Okposo (35 GA) and Mittelstadt (-11) were all worse than Girgensons (on for 33 GA, -10 differential) and Larsson (32 GA, -6 differential) but in easier use and more offensive opportunity.

It isn't just that their line has to score more. The cavity is not their line.

Okay well they will need to score....

 

[Chainshot]

Okay well they will need to score....

Great counter-argument.

 

[Hasekperreault23]

I also question John's assessment that Pominville was effective away from Eichel.

I don't know what games he was watching.Poms away from Eichel was useless

 

[BananaSquad]

Great counter-argument.

Buddy I ain’t watching stone hands Girgensons give up great opportunities next year cuz he can’t handle the puck. He can be the first to go.

 

[Chainshot]

Buddy I ain’t watching stone hands Girgensons give up great opportunities next year cuz he can’t handle the puck. He can be the first to go.

We very well may not be watching him in the Sabres uniform next year. I have no faith that Botterill is going to find players who are better at that job -- or any job actually -- than guys he has dealt.

And it remains way, way more than just raw scoring totals.

 

[Husko]

Is it worth mentioning that Girgensons (18) had more ES points than Mitts (15), and Larsson was only one behind? And they both played less games.

Is 15-20 ES goals as a line really that bad for a shot suppressing fourth line (the sort of role I want them to fill)? If our other 3 lines were scoring, would that be an issue at all?

 

[Hasekperreault23]

The stats say otherwise. In six years with St. Louis he was a .4 ppg player with a +12 +/- rating. Not bad, and much, much better than less than .2 ppg, -20 +/- with the Sabres. Housley killed his play.

He wasn't great his last year with the Blues but he scored at over twice the rate he did in Buffalo.

My biggest issue with Sobotka and there were many is he just went thru the motions game in and game out.He played just to earn a pay cheque.

 

[Chainshot]

Is it worth mentioning that Girgensons (18) had more ES points than Mitts (15), and Larsson was only one behind? And they both played less games.

Is 15-20 ES goals as a line really that bad for a shot suppressing fourth line (the sort of role I want them to fill)? If our other 3 lines were scoring, would that be an issue at all?

It isn't a problem from here. Low event, "dull" hockey when the other lines are capable of winning their matchups is good checking depth. That's a way of having cheap players winning contributing to a winning roster.

 

[Chainshot]

And I know I could have/should have used CF/CA%'s but man alive... there are bad players under-performing with better counting stats on this team who need to go FIRST.

 

[Husko]

It isn't a problem from here. Low event, "dull" hockey when the other lines are capable of winning their matchups is good checking depth. That's a way of having cheap players winning contributing to a winning roster.

The pens have always seemed to have solid low event checking fourth lines throughout their runs. Several names come to mind. I wonder what kind of offense those players brought to the table.

 

[SabresSharks]

Plenty of deadwood elsewhere throughout the roster. 4th line is not the problem.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Maybe I’m in the minority here - I don’t hate one more year of Bogosian as a 5/6, physical RHD.

For starters, he’s one of the only players willing to fight and stand up for teammates on a team sorely lacking cojones.

His Fancy Stats aren’t terrible for what he is, and even better if he’s in the aforementioned appropriate role (bottom pair, #2 PK, physical presence who can move the puck decently).

You could do much worse than him, assuming some combination of Montour, Ristolainen and a hypothetical new Top 4 RHD (if Risto gets shipped out) are occupying the right side on our top two pairings.

If Zach can stay relatively healthy (key word “relatively” ... 65 games or so) and keep his... nose clean... I see no issue with keeping him for his last year.

Borgen and Nelson are also viable RHD replacement options for when he inevitably goes down for a week or two as well.

The more pressing issue is convincing some dinosaur GM to buy a shiny, new Sobotka for just one easy payment of a 6th round pick. That’s the type of player who’s clearly below replacement level that Buffalo can and should dump ASAP.

Completely agree with all of this.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Have you seen any video of Borgen from Rochester? He can totally replace Bogo's physicality.

At roughly the same height, Bogosian probably has 30 pounds on Borgen, maybe more. Borgen isn't replacing that.

 

[Chainshot]

At roughly the same height, Bogosian probably has 30 pounds on Borgen, maybe more. Borgen isn't replacing that.

True, Borgen is smaller. But Borgen showing better positional play, better body positioning for his age than Bogosian for all of Zack's experience... Zack's replaceable and for far less money.

 

[sufferer]

Vogl needs his roster speculation privileges revoked after being all for the ROR trade.

 

[SabresSharks]

And if offence from the 4th line is imperative, I wouldn't be shocked to see Kyle pot 10+ goals off the offensive zone turnovers 22 and 28 generate. We all know his flaws, but his shot can still be quite lethal.

 

[Baccus]

Vogl needs his roster speculation privileges revoked after being all for the ROR trade.

He's making me rethink my Athletic subscription on his own. Wasn't thrilled when they announced him and it's been straight downhill since. His recent turn to trying to criticize just makes it all the more obnoxious, he's like shitty pro wrestling.

 

[toomuchsauce]

True, Borgen is smaller. But Borgen showing better positional play, better body positioning for his age than Bogosian for all of Zack's experience... Zack's replaceable and for far less money.

I agree with that. The issue I was addressing is not, "who is the better defenseman?" Rather, it was, "Can Borgen replace Bogosian's toughness?" and the answer to that is actually two-fold: First of all, 1) no, he cannot, but more importantly, 2) Borgen should not even be asked to do that.

I've been a Bogosian critic since he was acquired. I'd be happy to move him if another team wants him. But I'm not giving up assets to get another team to take him. Put him with Dahlin, it works well enough. Put him down the lineup and tell him to go nuts. Whatever.

Everything is relative. The original article basically asked the question, "Who NEEDS to go?" Bogosian is like, probably, 6th-ish on that list. There are much bigger problems with the roster than him. Sobotka, Scandella, Thompson, Okposo (and I like KO, I'm not giving up assets to move him at this point), Hunwick, and (don't get mad)...Mittelstadt. Then I'm taking a look at Girgensons and Larsson, neither of whom were that bad, and neither of whom "needs" to go unless another team is willing to give up an asset to acquire either player.

 

[sabremike]

Vogl needs his roster speculation privileges revoked after being all for the ROR trade.

vOrTeX oF sAdDnEsS

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Just addressing a few things in this thread...

Sheary is barely adequate as a secondary scoring LW, and I would happily replace him if enough Rochester wingers show better in the D and neutral zone. Odds are he stays until the TDL though, fine.

Girgensons and Larsson did a great job together for what their roles required. Buffalo has sent away too many good checking line players over the last 4-6 years. Trading either away (with no replacement) is more "one step up, two steps back". Okposo just can't be moved, but at least he's good with them on that line. Keep them all together.

If Borgen has more development to achieve in Rochester then so be it, but if not Bogosian has to go regardless of whatever good vibes he has with players in the locker room. Watching in person showed me he either sends hand-grenades, or takes passes like it's a hand grenade, and can't decide what to do with the puck quickly enough. He and McCabe (to a lesser extent) are the prime examples of how hockey dumb this roster can be. I think he doesn't go, like Sheary, until the TDL.

I thought Berglund might be a 3rd liner, and Sobotka a 4th for sure. No confusion here as to their value on ice. Thompson and the 1st are supposed to salvage any possible on-ice value from that trade. Sobotka needs to be traded for a 7th or waived, in the summer. He shouldn't even be in camp.

The only players under 27 that I don't mind getting rid of are Sheary (maybe), Wilson, and Nelson (but I'd rather lose Bogosian now and keep Nelson). The best (not great) parts of the roster are young, so stick with them and keep developing. It's still going to be a year or but this roster can turnover into a legit playoff team, but the biggest factor is getting a good HC. Can't screw this up.