The Athletic Vogl - Who Stays, Who Goes

[Hasekperreault23]

At roughly the same height, Bogosian probably has 30 pounds on Borgen, maybe more. Borgen isn't replacing that.

Bogosian had a couple of fights on the early western trip and disappeared physically afterwards.Yes he looks intimidating but the Skinner and Eichel incidents where he didn't use his " leadership skills" soured him on me after a healthy pleasant first half.Beaulieu was the only player who would defend a teammate and was capable but of course Phil hated him which was a joke as he was playing well.Bogo, Jake, Scandella showed none of that .Larsson, Girgs would defend A well just not capable but effort was there

 

[Zippy Chippy]

Yea... I have no respect for Vogl now. He did the Org’s bidding and it was so nakedly obvious... carried that water like a true tool

What did he do exactly?

 

[is the answer jesus]

What did he do exactly?

I'm assuming he's refering to the: "O'Reilly had to be traded because of the woe is me vortex that he was sucking all his teammates into" narrative that Vogl perpetuated.

 

[Zippy Chippy]

I'm assuming he's refering to the: "O'Reilly had to be traded because of the woe is me vortex that he was sucking all his teammates into" narrative that Vogl perpetuated.

Ahh, okay. I don't read much local media stuff, so I must have missed that Vogl was pushing that narrative.

Thanks!

 

[is the answer jesus]

Ahh, okay. I don't read much local media stuff, so I must have missed that Vogl was pushing that narrative.

Thanks!

Not a problem. You're probably much better off not reading that crap. Stimson is about the only guy these days whose Sabres related content is really on point and that I enjoy reading.

 

[Team Cozens]

After watching the first few playoff games I’m rethinking some of my stays and goes. Particularly from a physicality perspective. We are a bunch of cream puffs. Hayes as a 2C and Ferland are the targets for me. Miles Wood would be a trade target. Hornqvist maybe? We also need a shut down top 4LHD to replace Scandella and take the heavy shut down minutes. Dahlin with more OZ.

Stay:
Eichel
Skinner
Reinhart
Mittelstadt
Olofsson
Nylander
Thompson
Okposo
Dahlin
Montour
Risto
McCabe
Bogosian
Nelson
Pilut
Borgen

Goes:
Sheary
Wilson
Girgs
Larry
Pomer
Sobotka
Scandella

 

[Der Jaeger]

Many of these players will look remarkably different once they team has a coach with modern, executable NHL systems in place. And a coach who understands matchups and analytics.

 

[sincerity0]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is shipping Gus and Larry out? Both of them played extremely defensive roles and Larry’s underlyings are decent for his role.

Given how cheap he’d be to bring back as a #4 C / PKer he’s a no brainer to bring back.

 

[OkimLom]

After watching the first few playoff games I’m rethinking some of my stays and goes. Particularly from a physicality perspective. We are a bunch of cream puffs. Hayes as a 2C and Ferland are the targets for me. Miles Wood would be a trade target. Hornqvist maybe? We also need a shut down top 4LHD to replace Scandella and take the heavy shut down minutes. Dahlin with more OZ.

Stay:
Eichel
Skinner
Reinhart
Mittelstadt
Olofsson
Nylander
Thompson
Okposo
Dahlin
Montour
Risto
McCabe
Bogosian
Nelson
Pilut
Borgen

Goes:
Sheary
Wilson
Girgs
Larry
Pomer
Sobotka
Scandella

Sorry, it’s pretty easy to question your judgement of players after you say “after watching the playoffs”, namely with the physicality aspect, and still have Girgs, Wilson, and Larsson on the GOES side and have Thompson, Nelson, on the STAY side.

 

[OkimLom]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is shipping Gus and Larry out? Both of them played extremely defensive roles and Larry’s underlyings are decent for his role.

Given how cheap he’d be to bring back as a #4 C / PKer he’s a no brainer to bring back.

Because they don’t produce enough offense in their 4th line roles according to people. I haven’t even seen any arguments that they are bad in their roles, just that they don’t produce offense.

 

[Sabreality]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is shipping Gus and Larry out? Both of them played extremely defensive roles and Larry’s underlyings are decent for his role.

Given how cheap he’d be to bring back as a #4 C / PKer he’s a no brainer to bring back.

because pointz!

 

[Team Cozens]

Sorry, it’s pretty easy to question your judgement of players after you say “after watching the playoffs”, namely with the physicality aspect, and still have Girgs, Wilson, and Larsson on the GOES side and have Thompson, Nelson, on the STAY side.

Too bad. I want them gone and if you can’t see why then I judge you.

 

[sincerity0]

Because they don’t produce enough offense in their 4th line roles according to people. I haven’t even seen any arguments that they are bad in their roles, just that they don’t produce offense.

I’m sure both would produce more offense if they didn’t play a pure defensive role. Same thing with Berglund and Sobotka. If coaches are coaching certain players to not provide offense then they are not going to provide offense.

Buffalo obviously needs to bring in more offensive talent but I’m also not opposed to having one defensive specialist, who will be cheap, and has good underlying shot suppression stats. Unlike Sobotka in the same role, Larry has good underlying metrics. 2-3Y at $2m? Buffalo could do a lot worse.

 

[OkimLom]

Too bad. I want them gone and if you can’t see why then I judge you.

I have no problem with you wanting the guys gone, but when you’re bringing up the physical side of the game because of the playoffs, and rethinking about the list of who goes and who stays, yet you keep some guys who are soft and “cream puffs” on the stay side while putting the only guys on the team who actually play that physical type of hockey on the goes list, I question what you actually are seeing from the players.

 

[Fezzy126]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is shipping Gus and Larry out? Both of them played extremely defensive roles and Larry’s underlyings are decent for his role.

Given how cheap he’d be to bring back as a #4 C / PKer he’s a no brainer to bring back.

It's because their play is noticeable in a way that angers most casual fans. They carry play, maintain good possession, and drive the other team nuts but rarely finish plays. They tend to do this while an ignorant coach absolutely buries them with a deployment that no other competent coach in the league would dare consider, against tough forward competition:

So when we lose a game by a goal, people remember the 4 chances that Larsson couldn't finish, not the fact that 2 of our other lines never even created a scoring chance despite getting handed heavy o-zone starts playing against the other team's bottom 6.

 

[Matt Ress]

Bogo just seems like a deadline move to me. Could be a decent return if he stays healthy.

I'm all for keeping Guys and Larry. Sure, I'd like to see more scoring from them but they still eat a lot of d zone starts and end up getting non quality scoring chances the other way after playing keep away for 20 or 30 seconds. That's probably exactly what is asked of them.

 

[Matt Ress]

Too early to give up on Mitts. You're not getting a return on him anyway at this point.

 

[OkimLom]

I’m sure both would produce more offense if they didn’t play a pure defensive role. Same thing with Berglund and Sobotka. If coaches are coaching certain players to not provide offense then they are not going to provide offense.

Buffalo obviously needs to bring in more offensive talent but I’m also not opposed to having one defensive specialist, who will be cheap, and has good underlying shot suppression stats. Unlike Sobotka in the same role, Larry has good underlying metrics. 2-3Y at $2m? Buffalo could do a lot worse.

I get what you are saying, just giving some perspective on why some people want them gone.

My opinion, nobody on the team is safe. If I can find someone who can play your role better than you can, and I can’t find another role where you could fit on the team or you refuse to take another role, then you are gone. There’s no moving down the lineup anymore based on skill. I won’t be sad if they are moved or they decide to move in themselves (like Lehner did), but I won’t be too mad if they are kept.

 

[Chainshot]

It's because their play is noticeable in a way that angers most casual fans. They carry play, maintain good possession, and drive the other team nuts but rarely finish plays. They tend to do this while an ignorant coach absolutely buries them with a deployment that no other competent coach in the league would dare consider, against tough forward competition:

So when we lose a game by a goal, people remember the 4 chances that Larsson couldn't finish, not the fact that 2 of our other lines never even created a scoring chance despite getting handed heavy o-zone starts playing against the other team's bottom 6.

Thank you for that chart. It seems like my point about the defensive vs. offensive deployment wasn't getting through. If they handled that outlandish 85% d-zone deployment AND produced say double the goals, the Sabres wouldn't be easily able to retain them as RFA's. The flip side of course being how Sheary was able to produce CF% but his GA was terrible even with 70% offensive deployment.

If they retain both Gus and Larry and the new coach doesn't bury them in the same way with the deployment (which a sane coach shouldn't), they will have more opportunities to score simply by starting in the offensive zone more often.

The hope that Okposo fit with them in as a heavier, low-cycle line that could finish a little bit remains in my mind. I haven't pulled their minutes together to see if the numbers bear out that there is a trace of something to what looked like a good cycle trio there.

Okposo options seem to be put him back on Eichel's RW like in '17-18 when Jack got hot before getting hurt; put him on Mitts wing where I'd rather see Sam; have him part of a new line which isn't yet put together which seems the least attractive; or... put him with Gus and Larry (or at least Larry) as part of the checking line for next season. I'm leaning toward using him with Larry. They aren't fast per se but it's about cycle and wall work, safe plays and d-zone coverage than about blazing up the ice for an odd-man break every once in a while.

 

[Chainshot]

I get what you are saying, just giving some perspective on why some people want them gone.

My opinion, nobody on the team is safe. If I can find someone who can play your role better than you can, and I can’t find another role where you could fit on the team or you refuse to take another role, then you are gone. There’s no moving down the lineup anymore based on skill. I won’t be sad if they are moved or they decide to move in themselves (like Lehner did), but I won’t be too mad if they are kept.

I can get behind the idea of everyone is replaceable. However, Botterill has given us no confidence that he can do that in depth and defensive roles. Skinner was a big win, but the checking guys he's brought in have all been sub-par.

 

[Fezzy126]

Okposo options seem to be

This is the conundrum isn't it?

 

[Chainshot]

Too early to give up on Mitts. You're not getting a return on him anyway at this point.

Rather than give up on him, putting someone in the lineup who can handle the 2nd line offensive duties is more the theme. That would allow someone to flex Mitts into LW at times for matchup advantages or take some of the pressure off of him to produce. At times, his backchecking can be top notch. I'd like to see the next coach work on his back pressure and stick lifting aspects to round him into the 2-way guy his tournament performances hint at.

 

[Chainshot]

This is the conundrum isn't it?

"Okposo's Razor": How to squeeze productivity out of a player who is not worth the contract he signed when he was well/whole.

 

[OkimLom]

I can get behind the idea of everyone is replaceable. However, Botterill has given us no confidence that he can do that in depth and defensive roles. Skinner was a big win, but the checking guys he's brought in have all been sub-par.

Trust me, my opinion on the state of the roster and my opinion of the GM and his ability to do so are totally separate. I’d have that opinion about the roster even with a competent GM.

 

[Chainshot]

Trust me, my opinion on the state of the roster and my opinion of the GM and his ability to do so are totally separate. I’d have that opinion about the roster even with a competent GM.

I'm having a hard time divorcing the two when the option is for him to deal away effective placeholders with no evidence of his ability to improve things.