The CBA contains multiple definitions of "a year of professional experience". We do not know exactly which one (if any) applies to the expansion draft, but past clues have suggested that it's based on the rules for determining eligibility for Salary Arbitration and RFA status, not waivers. (The reasoning I'm familiar with is that it's possible to "skip" a year w/r/t arbitration and RFA status, because they accrue years based on those same criteria. Waivers, on the other hand, have a set time limit and a starting point.)
I'd put together a diagram based on that information:
Presuming it's accurate, Tex will likely have to be protected, but Gavrikov will not.
Now,
that said, CapFriendly and Eliotte Friedman are both really good sources, and they're saying (essentially) it's based on the waiver rules per that post just prior to this one. So it's very probable that that diagram is wrong and
@voicing my opinion has it right (that is, indeed, what the waiver rules say). I haven't seen anything definite; this is still all educated guesswork. I don't know if they actually know, or if they're also making educated guesses.
It'd be so much easier if the NHL and NHLPA just clearly published the details of the expansion draft rules, but nooooo...