Blue Jays Discussion: Vlad Jr wait/watch II: Watch Harder

[The Nemesis]

I asked my father (Tigers fan) for his opinion on the release, and I quote:

When I asked him how many Tulo had last year, he said he didn't know; Tulo was hurt last year.

Ironically not only did Gurriel have more than 8 HR in a partial season last year (11), but had he played a whole season he would've been on pace for more than 20.

 

[Cor]

Ironically not only did Gurriel have more than 8 HR in a partial season last year (11), but had he played a whole season he would've been on pace for more than 20.

How were Lordes fancy stats?

We have Bichette coming at SS/2B eventually, but is Lordes worth having on the long contract for 3M or whatever?

 

[Cor]

Agent knew there wouldn’t be many, if any suitors interested in him as their #1 SS on their depth charts going into 2019. The only team that I could see doing that is Pittsburgh, but then is that really better than playing 2B in his hometown area (A’s).

Yeah, Oakland seems to be the likely place by the sounds of it.

 

[Deebo]

It’s always funny to see the outrage over Tulo’s release when they guy has only played 66 games over the past two years.

Also, apparently Tulo’s agent said he’s willing to switch positions, which is funny because Tulo said like a month or so ago that if he wasn’t the SS there’s no point of him being on the team.

It was 4 months ago, and people can change.

In his meeting with Shapiro/Atkins maybe he told them he was willing to play 2B even in Toronto.

One comment a few months ago doesn't mean he hasn't changed his stance on what position he was willing to play.

 

[topched]

It was 4 months ago, and people can change.

In his meeting with Shapiro/Atkins maybe he told them he was willing to play 2B even in Toronto.

One comment a few months ago doesn't mean he hasn't changed his stance on what position he was willing to play.

I don’t think Tulos change of stance happens pre Jays. I think they may hve considered keeping him around if he was willing to play 1st. But I can’t blame him, former all star and best SS in the league, why should he be willing to change positions to play for a team like this? Release was in his best interests.

 

[The Nemesis]

How were Lordes fancy stats?

We have Bichette coming at SS/2B eventually, but is Lordes worth having on the long contract for 3M or whatever?

Bichette isn't a huge deal in terms of Gurriel's gig with the team. Either he becomes the double-play combo with Bichette one way or another (staying at SS while Bichette moves to 2B, or Bichette can stick at short and Gurriel moves to 2B) or he becomes the team's Marwin Gonzalez/Ben Zobrist super utility guy. Eitehr way Gurriel figures to be an important part of the team moving forward unless he goes full Lawrie on us.

By actual output, Gurriel looks solid. His batted ball profile isn't super out of whack and while he has a slightly higher than normal BABIP, he's reasonably speedy and it's not like he's a heavy ground ball hitter that's getting lucky beating out infield hits.

That said, his plate discipline and pitch f/x profile suggest that he's gotten the benefit of a lot of aggressive pitchers just heaving fastballs at him either because they figure he's just a rookie or because there's no book on him yet. His numbers suggest he has a greater than normal whiff rate on breaking pitches and offspeed stuff (more the former than the latter). It remains to be seen if pitchers alter their approach to feed him fewer fastballs and if he can adjust to that. Because similarly, Gurriel himself show a lot of aggression in his approach, with a crazy high swing rate on balls in teh strike zone. We're gonna have to see if that aggression is controlled or if he's just gonna go full JP Arencibia and start flailing when pitchers adapt to him.

 

[topched]

Bichette isn't a huge deal in terms of Gurriel's gig with the team. Either he becomes the double-play combo with Bichette one way or another (staying at SS while Bichette moves to 2B, or Bichette can stick at short and Gurriel moves to 2B) or he becomes the team's Marwin Gonzalez/Ben Zobrist super utility guy. Eitehr way Gurriel figures to be an important part of the team moving forward unless he goes full Lawrie on us.

By actual output, Gurriel looks solid. His batted ball profile isn't super out of whack and while he has a slightly higher than normal BABIP, he's reasonably speedy and it's not like he's a heavy ground ball hitter that's getting lucky beating out infield hits.

That said, his plate discipline and pitch f/x profile suggest that he's gotten the benefit of a lot of aggressive pitchers just heaving fastballs at him either because they figure he's just a rookie or because there's no book on him yet. His numbers suggest he has a greater than normal whiff rate on breaking pitches and offspeed stuff (more the former than the latter). It remains to be seen if pitchers alter their approach to feed him fewer fastballs and if he can adjust to that. Because similarly, Gurriel himself show a lot of aggression in his approach, with a crazy high swing rate on balls in teh strike zone. We're gonna have to see if that aggression is controlled or if he's just gonna go full JP Arencibia and start flailing when pitchers adapt to him.

Awesome summary, I see it the same way.

I think the Atkins talk of not Gurriel having to battle for playing time and looking to add someone is just lip service. Even if we add someone it’ll be a utility type that Gurriel should easily be able to outplay.

Kid needs a full year of facing MLB pitching for us to figure out how good he really is.

 

[Cor]

 

[ShaneFalco]

Interesting........

 

[topched]

Interesting........

What do you guys think would be a reasonable return?

Are we looking at a package of prospects or young mlb position player(s)?

My preference would be multiple pitching prospects. Chance to replace Stroman in FA and add to the AAA rotation with more high upside.

 

[Discoverer]

Weird... my gut was telling me yesterday that Stroman would go to the Reds. Was there an earlier connection there that I forgot about but just stuck in my head. It was to the point that they're the only team whose prospect list I've looked at to see about a match.

(I should note that he WON'T go to the Reds because my gut is always, always wrong.)

 

[phillipmike]

I don’t think Tulos change of stance happens pre Jays. I think they may hve considered keeping him around if he was willing to play 1st. But I can’t blame him, former all star and best SS in the league, why should he be willing to change positions to play for a team like this? Release was in his best interests.

38M reasons.

 

[topched]

38M reasons.

He got the money either way though?

 

[phillipmike]

Tanner Roark to the Reds

Tanner R got traded for Tanner R

 

[Eyedea]

Weird... my gut was telling me yesterday that Stroman would go to the Reds. Was there an earlier connection there that I forgot about but just stuck in my head. It was to the point that they're the only team whose prospect list I've looked at to see about a match.

(I should note that he WON'T go to the Reds because my gut is always, always wrong.)

A month ago Morosi reported that the Reds had interest in Stroman, (Sonny) Gray, Kluber, and Paxton.

 

[phillipmike]

He got the money either way though?

True, but my point is you asked the question why should he be willing to move positions to accommodate his employer?

And my point would be that they are paying him a lot of money. The team did nothing wrong, Tulo got hurt and can’t play the position anymore. To any team that is willing to pay me 38M or any reasonable amount when I player 66 games in the last two years (and collected 40M in that span) I would feel an obligation to accommodate my employer.

Now if Tulo was healthy and still a stud at SS then he would have an argument to not accommodate. But he has no argument not to accommodate when he is going to collect 82M from the Jays and only accumulated 0.1 WAR in that span.

 

[phillipmike]

Wow Lance Lynn got 30M over 3 years from the Rangers.

 

[The Nemesis]

The sunk cost fallacy and the Troy Tulowitzki release

Good read.

 

[Battle Lin]

morton woulda been nice, even the rays are getting in the action

 

[Nineteen67]

How were Lordes fancy stats?

We have Bichette coming at SS/2B eventually, but is Lordes worth having on the long contract for 3M or whatever?

What about 3rd for Guriel, 1st/DH Vlad and Tellez?

 

[The Nemesis]

What about 3rd for Guriel, 1st/DH Vlad and Tellez?

Everything we've seen to date seems to indicate that they're at least going to give Vlad the chance to try playing 3B at the big league level. He's likely destined for 1B/DH eventually, but they're not going to force that move before it's necessary.

 

[The Nemesis]

La Russa: Baines' HOF detractors are weak


Nice Try, Tony. This feels like it's as much about defending yourself for being responsible for this mess than it is about defending Baines himself.

 

[topched]

Everything we've seen to date seems to indicate that they're at least going to give Vlad the chance to try playing 3B at the big league level. He's likely destined for 1B/DH eventually, but they're not going to force that move before it's necessary.

Agreed - and I think it can only help. He’ll be a better defender wherever he lands for getting true 3B reps.

I’m willing to let myself be surprised, Sandoval played a decent 3rd far longer than I imagined. Also probably incentivized vlad to stay in shape. Let’s not forget his dad was a hell of a defender until his knees went.

 

[landy92mack29]

Weird... my gut was telling me yesterday that Stroman would go to the Reds. Was there an earlier connection there that I forgot about but just stuck in my head. It was to the point that they're the only team whose prospect list I've looked at to see about a match.

(I should note that he WON'T go to the Reds because my gut is always, always wrong.)

It sure seems like the Reds really want him but I think/hope he ends up going to Atlanta. Maybe package Stroman+Pillar for Soroka+another pitching prospect which the Braves have plenty of.

 

[hockeywiz542]