Blue Jays Discussion: Vlad Jr wait/watch II: Watch Harder

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BAM

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Uhm, those are personal choices. That's like arguing that because 'X' person can't keep themselves from eating 10 Big Mac's a day, we need to set limits on how many hamburgers McDonalds is allowed to sell.

The free market regulates itself. Why would you protect stupid owners that make stupid business decisions? They aren't hapless victims, in fact they already possess considerably more money than the players who are the actual PRODUCT that you watch. So why would you be in favour of taking money away from the players, so that some billionaire oil-tycoon can keep more of it in his pocket?
Lowering the term on contracts doesn't have to take money away from players. Other sports have a cap on player contracts, it doesn't change the ability of players to get paid. The NHL and NBA are examples of this.

In the NBA where they have a contract cap James Harden signed a 4 year deal worth 160 million... Machado and Harper might get longer term but their AAV is more spread out as a result.
 
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Woodman19

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I hate the idea of a rule specifically designed to protect ownership/management from itself. I like that teams have to weigh the pros and cons of a long-term contract and deal with the consequences down the road.
I prefer non guaranteed contracts like the NFL. If a team only has to pay a fraction of owed money for cutting players they would be more willing to throw long term deals out with the caveat being players have to keep performing and being healthy.
 

Garlando

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Yes
Yes! It was pretty widely panned within the industry once the formula for it got out. Its just regressing one year of data, and only certain data, and it's regressing it wrong.

The section I uploaded was passed around as to why...essentially DRC+ is the ultimate extreme for “BABIP only means luck, so we should pretend BABIP doesn't happen” stat. So it rewards low BABIP hitters and that's fine to an extent, but when it rewards bad hitters like Orioles 1B Chris Davis (46 wRC+ vs 62 DRC+) because it can't figure that he's just that bad on balls in play due to his approach, that's an issue. On the other side, it doesn't like high average players with above-average BABIPs like a Juan Soto (146 wRC+ vs 131 DRC+) and that's an issue because it's penalizing the player for having the batted ball distribution (think all-fields approach) to support an above-average BABIP.
 

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Discoverer

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Yes

Yes! It was pretty widely panned within the industry once the formula for it got out. Its just regressing one year of data, and only certain data, and it's regressing it wrong.

The section I uploaded from the article explains why in his own words...essentially DRC+ is the ultimate extreme for “BABIP only means luck, so we should pretend BABIP doesn't happen” stat. So it rewards low BABIP hitters and that's fine to an extent, but when it rewards bad hitters like Orioles 1B Chris Davis (46 wRC+ vs 62 DRC+) because it can't figure that he's just that bad on balls in play due to his approach, that's an issue. On the other side, it doesn't like high average players with above-average BABIPs like a Juan Soto (146 wRC+ vs 131 DRC+) and that's an issue because it's penalizing the player for having the batted ball distribution (think all-fields approach) to support an above-average BABIP.

So basically... take wRC+ and pretend everyone has the same batted-ball profiles and contact quality. Smart!
 
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BAM

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Lmao. I wonder where Stroman really wants to play. He should probably remove the Yankees piece from his mouth

Is he wrong? If the Jays were the kind of team to jump into this kind of situation he probably would've mentioned them. Everyone knows the Yankees are one of the favourites for him. If $175 million is all they have to beat they're probably going to.

If some rebuilding club offered Harper $175 million does it make him a mouth piece to say the Phillies/Cubs/Yankees could easily top that?
 

phillipmike

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That's pretty incredible that is the ballpark we are looking at this late in the off-season. I thought for sure Machado would get something around 300M over 10 years - still could get it but if he only gets under 200M then i dont see why more teams arent involved. Harper might regret turning down the Nats offer of 300M+ over 10 years.
 

BAM

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Too bad this free agency class is a year too early, if these guys were available next year the Jays would most likely be in on them.
 

phillipmike

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2019 Top 10 right-handed pitching prospects
MLB.com's 2019 Top 10 RHP Prospects (ETA)
1. Forrest Whitley, Astros (2019)
2. Casey Mize, Tigers (2020)
3. Michael Kopech, White Sox (2020)
4. Mitch Keller, Pirates (2019)
5. Dylan Cease, White Sox (2019)
6. Mike Soroka, Braves (2019)
7. Sixto Sanchez, Phillies (2020)
8. Brent Honeywell, Rays (2019)
9. Kyle Wright, Braves (2019)
10. Hunter Greene, Reds (2021)
Complete list »

2 White Sox, and 2 Braves.

2019 Top 10 left-handed pitching prospects
MLB.com's 2019 Top 10 LHP Prospects (ETA)
1. Jesus Luzardo, Athletics (2019)
2. MacKenzie Gore, Padres (2021)
3. Brendan McKay, Rays (2020)
4. A.J. Puk, Athletics (2020)
5. Justus Sheffield, Mariners (2019)
6. Adrian Morejon, Padres (2020)
7. Matthew Liberatore, Rays (2021)
8. Logan Allen, Padres (2019)
9. DL Hall, Orioles (2021)
10. Ryan Weathers, Padres (2021)
Complete list »

4 Padres, 2 Rays and 2 A's. Pretty impressive.
 

phillipmike

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Too bad this free agency class is a year too early, if these guys were available next year the Jays would most likely be in on them.

Next year's free agent class is a big one too so it could work out.

If Machado didnt have attitude or compete problems i would still have strong interest if im the Jays FO if these deals are under or around 200M with an AVV of 20-22M. They are contracts that can potentialy provide surplus value if you are only paying them until they are 32-33.
 

BAM

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Next year's free agent class is a big one too so it could work out.

If Machado didnt have attitude or compete problems i would still have strong interest if im the Jays FO if these deals are under or around 200M with an AVV of 20-22M. They are contracts that can potentialy provide surplus value if you are only paying them until they are 32-33.
I like the pitchers in next year's class a lot more, and with the way the market is trending, getting a Sale or Bumgarner could very realistic for the Jays next year at a not so insane contract. Offensively though I really like Arenado (would be thrilled if Vlad Jr can stick it at 3rd but I want to see it first) but am hesitant on how he would perform away from Coors Field going foward. The Jays already experienced Tulo so that might make them hesitant.
 
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theaub

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I think one of the big issues with MLB as compared to the NBA/NHL is the lack of offer sheets for players in the arbitration years. As an example, we've seen the natural progression in the NHL of the elimination of the bridge/favourable second contract, partially due to players having more power to hold out and the team risking losing the player via offer sheet. That doesn't exist in MLB and as a result players are beholden to the arbitration system.

The current reduction in free agent dollars is a natural correction to an inefficient system. Where the owners are really screwing the players is before that (and minor leaguers but that's a different story).
 

BAM

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I think one of the big issues with MLB as compared to the NBA/NHL is the lack of offer sheets for players in the arbitration years. As an example, we've seen the natural progression in the NHL of the elimination of the bridge/favourable second contract, partially due to players having more power to hold out and the team risking losing the player via offer sheet. That doesn't exist in MLB and as a result players are beholden to the arbitration system.

The current reduction in free agent dollars is a natural correction to an inefficient system. Where the owners are really screwing the players is before that (and minor leaguers but that's a different story).
The lack of money minor leaguers get is crazy, that really needs to be addressed IMO. Guys making $1200-$2000 a month during the season only and then having to pay rent wherever they live as well. A lot of minor leaguers have to have regular jobs in the offseason/make money through lessons/camps.
 

deletethis

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There's a different type of collusion going on this off-season. The stars are getting contract offers but it doesn't seem like there's even a pretence of competition between the teams.
 

deletethis

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The lack of money minor leaguers get is crazy, that really needs to be addressed IMO. Guys making $1200-$2000 a month during the season only and then having to pay rent wherever they live as well. A lot of minor leaguers have to have regular jobs in the offseason/make money through lessons/camps.

If minor leaguers' compensation increased substantially, many minor league teams maybe even certain leagues would be going belly up. Many of these teams aren't particularly profitable, they're vanity projects meant to tread water financially. That would mean less minor jobs.

It isn't much money but its financial burden is incomparable to post secondary education. There is money coming in. It's an investment into the chance of bigger money not unlike post secondary education. And doesn't saddle them with crippling debt they can't escape even with personal bankruptcy. And it's a great time. And there's plenty to learn and experience other than baseball. The younger me would trade places any one of these dudes in a heartbeat.
 

BAM

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If minor leaguers' compensation increased substantially, many minor league teams maybe even certain leagues would be going belly up. Many of these teams aren't particularly profitable, they're vanity projects meant to tread water financially. That would mean less minor jobs.

It isn't much money but its financial burden is incomparable to post secondary education. There is money coming on. It's an investment into the chance of bigger money not unlike post secondary education. And doesn't saddle them with crippling debt they can't escape even with personal bankruptcy. And it's a great time. And there's plenty to learn and experience other than baseball. The younger me would trade places any one of these dudes in a heartbeat.
Difference is you go to school for 4 years and you'll get your degree. It doesn't matter how you do in comparison to your peers, do well and you'll pass. Minor leaguers work their asses off and still can be passed up or get injured and get no return on their chance taken. For all the guys you see on tv, there's thousands of others that flamed out and were 25-28 with only a high school diploma and no real money generated from their dream.

I've seen far too many friends/former teammates end up like that, some make it, but the biggest issue I hear is that the grind of minor league ball is harder than anything on-field related. A lot of the guys thriving in the minors come from well off families who can afford to make sure they're taken care of during the season. Those not so well-off kids who have all the talent in the world aren't so lucky.
 

Discoverer

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If minor leaguers' compensation increased substantially, many minor league teams maybe even certain leagues would be going belly up. Many of these teams aren't particularly profitable, they're vanity projects meant to tread water financially. That would mean less minor jobs.

The added cost would be paid by the major league team. The only ones who would see a increase in expenses would be the major league team owners who are already raking in obscene amounts of money.
 

rimshot

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Difference is you go to school for 4 years and you'll get your degree. It doesn't matter how you do in comparison to your peers, do well and you'll pass. Minor leaguers work their asses off and still can be passed up or get injured and get no return on their chance taken. For all the guys you see on tv, there's thousands of others that flamed out and were 25-28 with only a high school diploma and no real money generated from their dream.

I've seen far too many friends/former teammates end up like that, some make it, but the biggest issue I hear is that the grind of minor league ball is harder than anything on-field related. A lot of the guys thriving in the minors come from well off families who can afford to make sure they're taken care of during the season. Those not so well-off kids who have all the talent in the world aren't so lucky.
Here is an idea! Go to college on a baseball scholarship. When you finish university go play minor ball. Even a partial scholarship puts you in an advantageous position compared to other non-athletes, who have to take out larger loans or work more part-time hours. If you are not offered any kind of scholarship then your chances of making it through minor ball to the pros is slight and you better be prepared for some sacrifices to keep your baseball dream alive.
 

BAM

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Here is an idea! Go to college on a baseball scholarship. When you finish university go play minor ball. Even a partial scholarship puts you in an advantageous position compared to other non-athletes, who have to take out larger loans or work more part-time hours. If you are not offered any kind of scholarship then your chances of making it through minor ball to the pros is slight and you better be prepared for some sacrifices to keep your baseball dream alive.
You are aware that every single high school player drafted has a college commitment right? That's not the problem, for some guys it works out (Bichette is a great example), but for every Bichette there's a D.J Davis.

And that only applies for kids in the U.S and Canada, for kids in poorer countries baseball is their only shot at a better life. It's not as simple as going to college on a baseball scholarship until your time is right. If you come from a dirt poor family and some team offers you $100000-$500000 you're probably gunna take it.
 

theaub

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Here is an idea! Go to college on a baseball scholarship. When you finish university go play minor ball. Even a partial scholarship puts you in an advantageous position compared to other non-athletes, who have to take out larger loans or work more part-time hours. If you are not offered any kind of scholarship then your chances of making it through minor ball to the pros is slight and you better be prepared for some sacrifices to keep your baseball dream alive.

That seems a bit glib, especially considering the injury rate for pitchers.
 

Discoverer

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Here is an idea! Go to college on a baseball scholarship. When you finish university go play minor ball. Even a partial scholarship puts you in an advantageous position compared to other non-athletes, who have to take out larger loans or work more part-time hours. If you are not offered any kind of scholarship then your chances of making it through minor ball to the pros is slight and you better be prepared for some sacrifices to keep your baseball dream alive.

Yeah, Latin American kids growing up in poverty who can barely speak a word of English and left school at a young age to focus purely on baseball! Go to college on a baseball scholarship!
 
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