Does that sound like a legitimate way to evaluate the "value and nature" of 2nd and 3rd round picks? It is not. If you want to quantify the value of 2nd or 3rd round pick you need to go much further than an analysis of games played, since many players that hit 200 games do so as marginal contributors. I would simply say that most 2nd and 3rd round picks do not go on to have impactful NHL careers, but some do.
Confirmed Trade: [VGK/NJD] Gusev to NJ for a 3rd round ('20) and 2nd round ('21)
- Thread starter thethinglonger
- Start date
Does that sound like a legitimate way to evaluate the "value and nature" of 2nd and 3rd round picks? It is not. If you want to quantify the value of 2nd or 3rd round pick you need to go much further than an analysis of games played, since many players that hit 200 games do so as marginal contributors. I would simply say that most 2nd and 3rd round picks do not go on to have impactful NHL careers, but some do.
I could name you three times as many players picked in those rounds during that time frame that played less than twenty games in the NHL. That's the point, you are likely not ending up with someone like Parayko, or it's just as likely one of the four defenseman they've drafted in the second or third rounds over the past three years turns into Parayko then whoever they would draft with one of those two picks.
And the Gusev trade was not about Taylor Hall, or it barely was. It's about making the Devils better in the short and long run.
Oneiro
Registered User
- Mar 28, 2013
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I'm too lazy but you could probably go back twenty years in the draft and find the number of impact / "core" players drafted in the second and third rounds and come up with an exact probability over the time span.
My guess is that the results will tell you that 2nd and 3rds are overrated and there is not much variation between the top end scouting staffs and the average.
My guess is that the results will tell you that 2nd and 3rds are overrated and there is not much variation between the top end scouting staffs and the average.
You are probably right. Although for my team, Bergeron, Krejci, Marchand and Chara were all 2nd or 3rd round picks.
Just like with Radulov, teams really don't value these players highly enough.
Gusev's going to be incredibly good. Potentially better than Panarin. However, I think a 2 year deal was a bit too conservative.
Gusev's going to be incredibly good. Potentially better than Panarin. However, I think a 2 year deal was a bit too conservative.
Chara was drafted 23 years ago. Between Ottawa and Boston there have been 92 2nd and 3rd round picks, so roughly a 4% chance to get a guy that good with your 2nd or 3rd round pick.
Oneiro
Registered User
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I looked at the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft from 2000-2011. I stopped there because from then on, there are still too many players in the mix who still might end up having good careers.
It's not perfect but here's a list of notable players:
2000
Ilya Bryzgalov, Paul Martin, Antoine Vermette
2001
Mike Cammalleri, Jason Pominville, Derek Roy, Craig Anderson, Tomas Plekanec, Patrick Sharp
2002
Duncan Keith, Jiri Hudler, Johnny Boychuk, Tomas Fleischmann, Frans Neilson, Valtteri Filppula
2003
Louis Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, Jimmy Howard
2004
David Booth, David Krecji, Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, Alexander Edler, Johan Franzen
2005
James Neal, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Paul Statsny, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick, Ben Bishop
2006
Milan Lucic, Jeff Petry, Steve Mason, Brad Marchand
2007
PK Subban, Wayne Simmonds, Evgenii Dadonov
2008
Slava Voynov, Roman Josi, Derek Stepan, Travis Hamonic, Jake Allen
2009
Ryan O'Reilly, Jakob Silfverberg, Tyson Barrie, Reilly Smith, Thomas Tatar
2010
Justin Faulk, Tyler Toffoli, Jason Zucker
2011
John Gibson, Brandon Saad, William Karlsson, Nikita Kucherov
I'm sure some borderline guys are up for debate but they're included as lower end comparables to Gusev. As imprecise as this is, in 12 drafts, of 720 players in the 2nd/3rd rounds, 57 of them are notable contributors for any stretch of time in their career. That's about 8%. If you expand the set to include guys like Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Mason Raymond, Alex Killorn, etc., you likely don't get a much more favorable number. Let's call it 10%.
A 10% chance vs. the best player in the KHL? Kind of seems like a no brainer. Even if you didn't know who the KHL player was, you might be better off making the deal every time out of principle.
It's not perfect but here's a list of notable players:
2000
Ilya Bryzgalov, Paul Martin, Antoine Vermette
2001
Mike Cammalleri, Jason Pominville, Derek Roy, Craig Anderson, Tomas Plekanec, Patrick Sharp
2002
Duncan Keith, Jiri Hudler, Johnny Boychuk, Tomas Fleischmann, Frans Neilson, Valtteri Filppula
2003
Louis Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Shea Weber, Corey Crawford, David Backes, Jimmy Howard
2004
David Booth, David Krecji, Brandon Dubinsky, Alex Goligoski, Alexander Edler, Johan Franzen
2005
James Neal, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Paul Statsny, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick, Ben Bishop
2006
Milan Lucic, Jeff Petry, Steve Mason, Brad Marchand
2007
PK Subban, Wayne Simmonds, Evgenii Dadonov
2008
Slava Voynov, Roman Josi, Derek Stepan, Travis Hamonic, Jake Allen
2009
Ryan O'Reilly, Jakob Silfverberg, Tyson Barrie, Reilly Smith, Thomas Tatar
2010
Justin Faulk, Tyler Toffoli, Jason Zucker
2011
John Gibson, Brandon Saad, William Karlsson, Nikita Kucherov
I'm sure some borderline guys are up for debate but they're included as lower end comparables to Gusev. As imprecise as this is, in 12 drafts, of 720 players in the 2nd/3rd rounds, 57 of them are notable contributors for any stretch of time in their career. That's about 8%. If you expand the set to include guys like Jarret Stoll, Matt Greene, Mason Raymond, Alex Killorn, etc., you likely don't get a much more favorable number. Let's call it 10%.
A 10% chance vs. the best player in the KHL? Kind of seems like a no brainer. Even if you didn't know who the KHL player was, you might be better off making the deal every time out of principle.
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McDuffz88
HIRE BERUBE!!!
- Sep 18, 2019
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I know it's early but what do you guys think of the trade so far? Gusev has 3 goals & 1 assist in 7 games. Much of which on a 3/4th line. This is him still adjusting to the nhl rink. He definitely makes some stupid decisions & does turn over the puck but he will learn to correct those as he adjusts. Also he hasn't had consistent linemates. If he gets chemistry then who knows. What's your opinion?
greasysnapper
Registered User
- Apr 6, 2018
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Right now he's a high-end tweener. But his skating, and drive are lacking just as people thought and it's keeping him from being a great player. If he can turn a corner on the stupid mistakes, and actually play defense he'll carve out a decent NHL career as a 2nd/3rd liner. Unfortunately, there's already reports from Russian papers that he's upset about his usage, which is never what you want to hear from a guy on the 4th line of one of the worst teams in the league. I thought his 1st and 2nd goals were very good. I was impressed with that read in the Winnipeg game on his first goal, and it was a nice shot on Koskinen for his 2nd. This last goal was an absolute gimmie from Panarin.
He's at a crossroads here. He needs to play like how Rooney plays, but with his own skillset. I honestly think that's why they have been putting them together. They're hoping Rooney rubs off on him. If Gusev doesn't start getting with the program I wouldn't doubt if he decides to pack her up and go back home.
Porter Stoutheart
We Got Wood
- Jun 14, 2017
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Sounds like it's all going to come down to how much he really wants to be an NHL player. If he puts his nose to the grindstone and invests the effort in bringing his game up to NHL standards, burying all ego in the process, I would expect him to live up to all original optimistic prognostications. But I also would not blame him at his age, knowing he can instead be a superstar in the KHL, to not have the motivation to do that. He's learning that it's not going to be as easy as he or probably many people in his circle thought it would be. Now what matters is how he reacts to that lesson.
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
He is clearly still adjusting to the NA game. However, he is very lost away from the puck
Good thing he was not brought in to be a defensive force. If he can put up ~40 points, the trade will have been more than worth it
Good thing he was not brought in to be a defensive force. If he can put up ~40 points, the trade will have been more than worth it
Better Call Sal
Salnalysis
The reason he's been up and down the lineup is partly also due to the team struggling to figure out how to get some consistency out of their lines.
I don't know how accurate the article was but the one shared by one of the Russian posters about his usage was that he was on the RW which he didn't prefer. The funny thing about that was he was on the RW on our top line with Hall and Hischier.
So I think the usage thing is probably misconstrued. He's still adjusting and has things to work on, but his offensive talents are quite apparent.
I don't know how accurate the article was but the one shared by one of the Russian posters about his usage was that he was on the RW which he didn't prefer. The funny thing about that was he was on the RW on our top line with Hall and Hischier.
So I think the usage thing is probably misconstrued. He's still adjusting and has things to work on, but his offensive talents are quite apparent.
Clearly talented but not impressed with his on-ice intelligence. Jury is definitely still out. Should be given time though - a poor start by the Devils has not helped. Wish they would get somebody else behind the bench instead of Hynes...I think the Devils have talent up front but it doesn’t feel well balanced or utilized.
CupInSIX
My cap runneth over
It's definitely worked out for Vegas so far. I'll take a 2nd and a 3rd with a spot for Glass in the NHL over another potential Shipachyov situation.
Lonny Bohonos
Registered User
Funny. I said as much in prospect thread after watching him live in 2011 with CSKA.
He spent most of his time literally floating at the redline.
Still somehow has 3 times more goals, than Hall and Hughes combined for 1/10th of their ice time...
And if he played for a team, that really knew, how to utilize his talent, he would have been a PPG+ player right now...
Tripod
I hate this team
I think what they mean, is that the underlying stats are concerning.
AT ES, he has been on the ice for 4 goals for, 4 against. But as far as shots go, he has been on the ice for 45, but 89 against. So opposing teams are outshooting the Devils 2-1 while he is on the ice. And over time, if that continues, he will start to get caved in goals against. It hasn't happened yet, but it will at some point unless he helps out defensively while on the ice...which he doesn't do near enough right now.
But I do also agree that coaches can overthink things and try to make a player into something he is not. Playing him with non-talented players won't get the best out of him production wise. But at the same time, if Hynes is matching top lines vs top lines, Gusev will get exposed by opponents top players due to that lack of defensive play.
Both player and coach need to try and find the right balance. I personally think he sti ends up have a good year with 50+ points....but may also frustrate coaches and Mgt with WTF moments when it comes to his defensive play.
The truth is, hockey is a team sport, where different players do jobs they are the best at. Like, Patrick Kane has always been sucking defensively and somehow has a HOF career. The same can be said about Ovechkin.
The problem with the Devils is, they just don't have right players, they can combine Gusev with (and right coach probably too). That's why I proposed to trade him for anything, while there were still buyers (he makes $4.5M/year after all), but was reported by Devils fans for trolling and got a warning from the forum's bot, and my thread was deleted. Those are the same fans, who keep saying, Gusev is terrible...
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NJ DevLolz
The Many Saints of Newark
- Sep 30, 2017
- 4,569
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This. I like the player but he literally has no idea how to play without the puck. Seriously wonder if a SKA coach even tried to take the time to teach him how to play in the defensive zone or just took the bad with the absurdly good. Anyway, I think he’s actually getting better and it’s not like he’s been a zero offensively
There are tricks, like offensive zone starts, playing with players, who are actually good defensively etc, but Devils use those options for Hall and Hughes, so Gusev has to learn a 4th line grinder role. I'm afraid, he's too old to change his playing style.
Tripod
I hate this team
Kane and Ovi play some semblance of defense or physicality when it comes to Ovi. They don't just ignore defense altogether. Gusev WILL have to learn to play defense when he doesn't have the puck instead of just waiting for linemates to do it then feed him the puck.
Defense is often about effort. And so far, Gusev just has not shown near enough effort without the puck. And taht is what people have issues with.
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