Confirmed Trade: [VGK/NJD] Gusev to NJ for a 3rd round ('20) and 2nd round ('21)

Spoiled Bratt

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Jun 29, 2016
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This is about making the team better. It is not about making one guy happy.

It comes down to the same thing IMO... You make the team better, you show Hall and the rest of the league for that matter that we're going in the right direction. Making one guy happy would be for Shero to sign Hall's BFF's or something but we're adding legit talent here in Subban, Gusev, Hughes and Simmonds. That's almost an entire new line right there that would play on any of the 31 teams top #6.
 

smitty10

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Aug 6, 2009
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It comes down to the same thing IMO... You make the team better, you show Hall and the rest of the league for that matter that we're going in the right direction. Making one guy happy would be for Shero to sign Hall's BFF's or something but we're adding legit talent here in Subban, Gusev, Hughes and Simmonds. That's almost an entire new line right there that would play on any of the 31 teams top #6.
I wouldn't say they'd play in any team's top 6, but it's a line with the potential to be very good.

Regardless, this is a step in the right direction for New Jersey. At least they're trying to keep their asset. They could have gone through a full rebuild and gone from the ground up to build around Hughes, Hischier, Blackwood, Bratt, Boqvist, Smith and Zacha. Instead, they're trying to make the playoffs and continue to build. I like that way of retooling much better than a full rebuild.
 

SniperOnTheWing

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Apr 28, 2017
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For those familiar with his KHL numbers I have a couple of questions:

1) Out of his 82pts last year why only 17 goals? Can he even be a 25 goal guy in the NHL?

2) Secondly, how many of his 65 assists were secondary assists?
 

Kshahdoo

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You left out the part where this particular 27 year old has ZERO NHL experience

Yeah, Dadonov was 28 year old, and his NHL experience was worse than zero - it was negative. And he was an inferior player to Gusev back to then... I mean, Gusev of 2 years ago, and now Gusev is even better, than he was 2 years ago.
 

Kshahdoo

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For those familiar with his KHL numbers I have a couple of questions:

1) Out of his 82pts last year why only 17 goals? Can he even be a 25 goal guy in the NHL?

2) Secondly, how many of his 65 assists were secondary assists?

Gusev was 9+10 in 18 playoff games, he can score, but plays the role his teams needs the most.

He scored more goals in his previous seasons, because he played with Shipachev, who was a great playmaker. Last season Gusev played mostly with Prokhorkin, who more of a shooter, than a playmaker (Prokhorkin scored 20 goals in 41 games, btw, while before his best record was 19 goals in 52 games)
 
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Brockon

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2nd and 3rd round picks rarely turn into anything and we get a player that can play now... good deal!!

I disagree. Off the top of my head, in no particular order here are some 2nd/3rd rounders that you *might* have heard of...

Colton Parayko
Patrice Bergeron
Ryan O'Reilly
Nikita Kucherov
Brayden Point
Roman Josi
Alex Debrincat
PK Subban
James Neal
Duncan Keith

Plus god knows how many goalies. I'm sure if I looked it up, this list would be much longer just drawing from recent years, let alone going back further.

2nd/3rd rounders are projects that take a few years to get to the NHL, they're not insignificant players. St Louis doesn't win a cup without theirs. Arguably neither do Boston or Chicago, or at least they don't make multiple finals in the past decade.

If your goal is to improve right away, sure trading 2nds & 3rds is great, but there are plenty of quality guys those picks could take - the results won't show until closer to 2025 or so in impact roles.

I think the statistics are that
40% of 1st round picks
25% of 2nd round picks
15% of 3rd round picks
Under 10% of later picks
Will have NHL careers of over 200 games played. How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?
 
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Boom Boom Apathy

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I disagree. Off the top of my head, in no particular order here are some 2nd/3rd rounders that you *might* have heard of...

Colton Parayko
Patrice Bergeron
Ryan O'Reilly
Nikita Kucherov
Brayden Point
Roman Josi
Alex Debrincat
PK Subban
James Neal
Duncan Keith

<snip>

While the percentages are lower for sure as you get into later rounds, I agree with you. It's still throwing darts, but the more darts you have, the better off you are in hitting the target. Heck, the Canes wouldn't be anywhere without 2nd and later round picks.

Guys Canes drafted in round 2+ on the team:
Aho: 2nd
Faulk: 2nd
McGinn: 2nd
Pesce: 3rd
Foegele: 3rd
Slavin: 4th
Wallmark: 4th

Guys Canes drafted in round 2+ that were traded for players currently on the team:
Rask: 2nd (traded for Neiderreiter)
Dumoulin: 2nd (traded for Staal).

That's a pretty big portion of their core that came from 2nd round and later.
 
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Zajacs Bowl Cut

Lets Go Baby
Nov 6, 2005
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Devils have drafted a million players in the past 3-4 years. Trading 2nds/3rds for players that can improve the team right now is nothing to them.

Especially if Gusev can do what everyone thinks he can. He sure looked great last night with Hughes.
 

WhiskeyYerTheDevils

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While the percentages are lower for sure as you get into later rounds, I agree with you. It's still throwing darts, but the more darts you have, the better off you are in hitting the target. Heck, the Canes wouldn't be anywhere without 2nd and later round picks.

Guys Canes drafted in round 2+ on the team:
Aho: 2nd
Faulk: 2nd
McGinn: 2nd
Pesce: 3rd
Foegele: 3rd
Slavin: 4th
Wallmark: 4th

Guys Canes drafted in round 2+ that were traded for players currently on the team:
Rask: 2nd (traded for Neiderreiter)
Dumoulin: 2nd (traded for Staal).

That's a pretty big portion of their core that came from 2nd round and later.

Yeah but you're forgetting how bad of a drafting team the devils have been since 2005. Arguably the worst drafting team in the league since then (though we've been better in later rounds vs 1st round, we've definitely been the worst at drafting in the first round since then)

Bergfors
Corrente
Tedenby
Josefson
Larsson
Matteau
Quenneville
Zacha
McLeod
Hischier
Smith
Hughes

The last 3 years have been better though, but two of them were 1st overall so they don't really count.

You could make the argument that Ty Smith is the only "good" (not obvious) first round pick we've made since Zajac in 2004. And he's not even an NHL player yet.


We've done better with 2nd/3rd round picks than 1st round picks, but still pretty bad:

Severson
Henrique
Coleman
Blackwood
Santini
Merrill
Boqvist
Anderson
 

TGWL

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If Gusev puts up close to 50 points, it probably ends up a very nice trade for NJ regardless who Vegas gets with those picks.
 

Jerzey Devil

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With how good Goose has looked so far I’d give up 2 2nd round picks. He looks better than a lot of 1st round picks. The gamble was he might not adapt to North American hockey but it’s looking like a pretty safe bet at this point.
 

kylbaz

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With how good Goose has looked so far I’d give up 2 2nd round picks. He looks better than a lot of 1st round picks. The gamble was he might not adapt to North American hockey but it’s looking like a pretty safe bet at this point.

Wasnt there a lot of hype on gusev? 2nd and 3rd seems like a steal from day one. I mean even if he doesnt pan out its not a huge loss.
 

Jerzey Devil

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Wasnt there a lot of hype on gusev? 2nd and 3rd seems like a steal from day one. I mean even if he doesnt pan out its not a huge loss.

That’s what I thought too but people seem to be stuck on the value of a 2nd round pick for some reason. You’re lucky if a 1st turns out as good as Goose.
 
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Jerzey Devil

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Wasnt there a lot of hype on gusev? 2nd and 3rd seems like a steal from day one. I mean even if he doesnt pan out its not a huge loss.

That’s what I thought too but people seem to be stuck on the value of a 2nd round pick for some reason. You’re lucky if a 1st turns out as good as Goose.
 

Blackjack

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I think the statistics are that
40% of 1st round picks
25% of 2nd round picks
15% of 3rd round picks
Under 10% of later picks
Will have NHL careers of over 200 games played. How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?

So 0.25 * 200 games = 50 games
and 0.15 * 200 games = 30 games

The Devils traded roughly 80 expected games played for a potential star player they signed for two seasons (up to 164 regular season games).
 

Brockon

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So 0.25 * 200 games = 50 games
and 0.15 * 200 games = 30 games

The Devils traded roughly 80 expected games played for a potential star player they signed for two seasons (up to 164 regular season games).

No. That's not the f***ing stat... I included the link so you could read the model and understand how the data was gathered.

Instead, you took the numbers provided completely out of context and multiplied them together for reasons unknown.

Edit: The percentage is the number of players selected in the round that play 200+ NHL games. Just in case you fail to follow the link again and extrapolate even more incorrect data from your poor understanding of the figures presented.

The figures have nothing to do with expected games played. Other models crank out different percentages, because they use a lower games played threshold to establish their percentage - 50 GP is far less meaningful than 200 GP.
 
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Blackjack

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No. That's not the ****ing stat... I included the link so you could read the model and understand how the data was gathered.

Instead, you took the numbers provided completely out of context and multiplied them together for reasons unknown.

Edit: The percentage is the number of players selected in the round that play 200+ NHL games. Just in case you fail to follow the link again and extrapolate even more incorrect data from your poor understanding of the figures presented.

The figures have nothing to do with expected games played. Other models crank out different percentages, because they use a lower games played threshold to establish their percentage - 50 GP is far less meaningful than 200 GP.

I think it was a pretty good trade.
 

Setec Astronomy

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Jun 15, 2012
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I disagree. Off the top of my head, in no particular order here are some 2nd/3rd rounders that you *might* have heard of...

Colton Parayko
Patrice Bergeron
Ryan O'Reilly
Nikita Kucherov
Brayden Point
Roman Josi
Alex Debrincat
PK Subban
James Neal
Duncan Keith

Plus god knows how many goalies. I'm sure if I looked it up, this list would be much longer just drawing from recent years, let alone going back further.

2nd/3rd rounders are projects that take a few years to get to the NHL, they're not insignificant players. St Louis doesn't win a cup without theirs. Arguably neither do Boston or Chicago, or at least they don't make multiple finals in the past decade.

If your goal is to improve right away, sure trading 2nds & 3rds is great, but there are plenty of quality guys those picks could take - the results won't show until closer to 2025 or so in impact roles.

I think the statistics are that
40% of 1st round picks
25% of 2nd round picks
15% of 3rd round picks
Under 10% of later picks
Will have NHL careers of over 200 games played. How Many Draft Picks Make It to the NHL?

You leave out the modifier, which is "rarely." That's obviously not a precise adverb, but it stands to reason that if 25% of second picks play more than 200 games in the NHL, another way of saying are at least replacement level, something like 5% of second rounders will become very good NHLers, or about one to three in any particular draft.

The Devils have had a ton of draft picks over the past three years, especially this past year. Under their particular circumstances, they should make the Gusev every single time, especially considering that Gusev will likely play more games in the NHL than whoever is selected at either of those two spots.
 
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Brockon

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I think it was a pretty good trade.

So do I. It seems New Jersey is trying to keep Hall and they needed to improve immediately to make it appealing to sign an extension - this trade helps achieve that.

But the full post I made, which you incorrectly understood, was commenting on the nature of the value of 2nd & 3rd round picks. Specifically that they rarely become anything worthwhile.

So, I provided a list of notable 2nd/3rd rounders off the top of my head, and provided a set of numbers about the probability of those picks landing players that have successful NHL careers, including the source of those numbers. Note, successful doesn't mean spectacular.
 

PizzaAndPucks

New Jersey Angels diehard
Nov 29, 2018
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Its only been 1 preseason game and a few days of camp but if Gusev turns into a 1st line player for us than Hall might be expandable. If Gusev explodes on the scoresheet hes going to get a big raise in 2 years when he becomes a UFA. Shero has some pretty big decisions to make because we aren't going to have a ton of cap space forever. Hopefully we lock up 1 of Hall or Gusev long term but we need to see what Gusev can do in a full season and hopefully playoffs of we make it. Having him and either Bratt or Boqvist as our top 2 LW's would have us set for awhile.
 

Hivemind

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So 0.25 * 200 games = 50 games
and 0.15 * 200 games = 30 games

The Devils traded roughly 80 expected games played for a potential star player they signed for two seasons (up to 164 regular season games).

This isn't quite true. Those are the (supposed) probabilities of a player playing in 200+ games, but the 200 game mark shouldn't be used to determine the expected games since many of the players who do reach the 200 game threshold will play substantially more than 200 games. Additionally, some of the players who don't reach that threshold will still have played some NHL games.
 

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