Confirmed Trade: [VGK/NJD] Gusev to NJ for a 3rd round ('20) and 2nd round ('21)

[AfroThunder396]

I’m not denying this or even hinted at that, so I’m not sure what your point is?

All I’m saying is using two examples as to why there’s a “good chance” Gusev ends up an impact player when there are many, many more examples of Russians coming over and failing is a strange argument.

And once again, I think Gusev will be good, just way too soon to already declare a winner or loser to this.

How many of them were point per game players, won MVP and were the named Best Forward at the Olympics?

Gusev's pedigree far exceeds that of most European players who came over. He's not some common KHL forward trying to get a quick cash in.

 

[Tim Wallach]

Top players in Metro

I don't get why you're showing a picture of Marchand when talking about the Metro?

 

[RangerDoggo]

i like this move cuz it shows that Shero isnt going to be a wait and see type this season.
last year he sat on his hands and it hurt the team a bit. no real improvemnt going into the season

I hated that at the time as well, but in retrospect, it set the team up to have this massive offseason. He was thinking long-term and a fair amount of the fanbase (not all, obviously) saw it.

 

[Just Linda]

They played on the same dam' team on the same dam' line for quite some time and Gusev was always the better player.

In the 2 full seasons they played together in St.Petersburg:

Dadonov 53gp 30g 36a 66pts (0,57 gpg 1,25 ppg) vs. Gusev 57gp 24g 47a 71pts in 2016-17 (0,42 gpg 1,25 ppg)
Dadonov 74gp 28g 37a 65pts (0,38 gpg 0,88 ppg) vs. Gusev 54gp 22g 40a 62pts in 2017-18 (0,41 gpg 1,15 ppg)

Gusev 62gp 17g 62a 82pts in 2018-19 (0,27 gpg 1,32 ppg). Gusev also sports better playoff stats.

They might play a different game, but playing together they produced those numbers in the same league. You have to respect that.

I don't hold a ton of weight on stats, especially KHL stats. You had a big, quick, elusive winger who created zone entries, drove play and could use their shiftiness to elude D vs a smaller, slower player who uses positioning and space to find room to make passes or exploit defensive gaps.

Dadonov played an NHL style game in a lot of ways, Gusev does not. I mean Gusev probably will look good on the PP and would be magic playing on lines with Hughes and Simmons (who can do the things that his game would struggle to do) but other than playing together in Russia, Gusev and Dadonov have nothing in common.

 

[Atas2000]

So basically you just wrote a ton of excuses as to why they didn’t succeed? Okay.

What will be the excuse if Gusev doesn’t I wonder...?

We get it Atas, you REALLY love Russians

Excuses? So if I try to compare the success of McDavid vs. say Dan Boyle and expect them to perform similarily you'd be okay with it?

I just show you that you compare completely beyond reason players who never were in the same tier(and you throw forwards and defencemen together) and then try to drive a conclusion that their success/failure is measurable against each other.

What will be your excuse when Gusev signs his next contract? That he is exceptionally superhuman, just like all the other russian stars?

You don't get anything, because you can't even read my posts properly. If you did, you'd know I love Russians who become good hockey players and I sincerely dislike Russians who waste their talent one way or the other, because for the 1000th time I want the best players possible for the team I care most about and that is Team Russia. That being said I never try to push a Russian just because he is Russian. Many times I warned people about overhyping Russians who are simply not good, but they still do. Some NHL GMs still do.

Just going through your list it is full of players who always were borderliners to be bottom six/bottom pairing players to ones who I never expected to make the NHL. They don't need excuses. They were never a safe bet anyway. Yet you claim them to be failures that shift the odds against Gusev who is basically one of 2(TWO) Russians yet to play an NHL game who are sure shots.

 

[nbwingsfan]

How many of them were point per game players, won MVP and were the named Best Forward at the Olympics?

Gusev's pedigree far exceeds that of most European players who came over. He's not some common KHL forward trying to get a quick cash in.

And for the 9th time, I never once said he was. Even explicitly said I think he’s going to be great and a top 6 player.

But most of those guys I listed (and there’s a ton more) were either hyped or put up good to great numbers in the KHL yet couldn’t make it as even average NHL players.

So posters should really stop acting like it’s a guarantee Gusev is a star and that Vegas lost this trade already because they gave up a 27yo with 0 games of NHL experience.

Still remains to be seen how he ends up. Anything less than 50 or so pts and the trade doesn’t look bad for Vegas at all.

 

[Atas2000]

I don't hold a ton of weight on stats, especially KHL stats. You had a big, quick, elusive winger who created zone entries, drove play and could use their shiftiness to elude D vs a smaller, slower player who uses positioning and space to find room to make passes or exploit defensive gaps.

Dadonov played an NHL style game in a lot of ways, Gusev does not. I mean Gusev probably will look good on the PP and would be magic playing on lines with Hughes and Simmons (who can do the things that his game would struggle to do) but other than playing together in Russia, Gusev and Dadonov have nothing in common.

You people are so obsessed with the "NHL style" that you missed how the league has changed. Gaudreau in the Bure days would get his head rocked in the first shift.
Players like Gusev might have been less suited for the NHL 10 years ago, but now his game will translate just fine.

And if you don't put much stock in stats, let me tell you that Gusev is just as highly skilled as Kucherov, he just lacks a bit physically. Don't bother explaining the "especially KHL stats", because I could throw away every NHL argument then, because I don't trust anything from the NHL or something.

 

[Atas2000]

And for the 9th time, I never once said he was. Even explicitly said I think he’s going to be great and a top 6 player.

But most of those guys I listed (and there’s a ton more) were either hyped or put up good to great numbers in the KHL yet couldn’t make it as even average NHL players.

So posters should really stop acting like it’s a guarantee Gusev is a star and that Vegas lost this trade already because they gave up a 27yo with 0 games of NHL experience.

Still remains to be seen how he ends up. Anything less than 50 or so pts and the trade doesn’t look bad for Vegas at all.

Good to great KHL numbers without context of actually watching and knowing the league is what makes you all fail at evaluating players from the KHL properly.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Gusev has no value. He hasn't played a single game in the NHL

People here want him because they think he might become a Panarin clone and because of his good KHL numbers.

Gms obviously think differently.

I give him a 50/50 shot at becoming a successful NHler.

50/50 is better odds than the chances of the 2nd and 3rd round picks combined. So the true risk cost will be the contract.

 

[severian]

50/50 is better odds than the chances of the 2nd and 3rd round picks combined. So the true risk cost will be the contract.

And the contract is short term and doesn't hurt the Devils salary structure at all. That's why this is a shot worth taking.

 

[Just Linda]

You people are so obsessed with the "NHL style" that you missed how the league has changed. Gaudreau in the Bure days would get his head rocked in the first shift.
Players like Gusev might have been less suited for the NHL 10 years ago, but now his game will translate just fine.

And if you don't put much stock in stats, let me tell you that Gusev is just as highly skilled as Kucherov, he just lacks a bit physically. Don't bother explaining the "especially KHL stats", because I could throw away every NHL argument then, because I don't trust anything from the NHL or something.

You managed to get that completely backwards in your arguments. Gusev would have been a better fit in the NHL 10 years ago then he is now. I'm sure he'll do fine now but his game isn't based on speed, he's not a fast skater. It wasn't an argument of physicality (which really, Dadonov isn't exactly a grinder so I'm not sure how you pulled that out of your cheeks as being anything remote to what I'm talking about, Dadonov came with a lot of questions about his physicality), it was an argument about speed and ability to drive play. Gusev won't be a play driver in the NHL, he's built to be a producer. Im not sure I've ever heard anyone disagree with that, I'm sure most people have accepted that and are okay with that because he won't need to be (NJD has enough players who can do that for him and let him play to his strengths).

Apparently you didn't read my post at all, I explained why I don't trust KHL stats. It's a different league, different styles. I look at how the players play and not at their numbers, I don't assume that the Dawes, Sextons, and O'Neils will be superstars in the NHL because they are great KHL talent. I look at the why, I explained the difference in me previous post. Without the time and space to create to do what he does, Gusev will have to change the way he plays. That doesn't always translate as well as Dadonov who plays a completely different game.

 

[Scorcho]

And the goaltending still sucks

Predicting another bottom 10 finish

i don't think you watched the World Cup of hockey or the end of last season did you?

we should have solid, middle of the pack goaltending

 

[Classic Devil]

50/50 is better odds than the chances of the 2nd and 3rd round picks combined. So the true risk cost will be the contract.

A two year contract for a team with lots of cap flexibility makes this a risk worth taking.

 

[AfroThunder396]

And for the 9th time, I never once said he was. Even explicitly said I think he’s going to be great and a top 6 player.

But most of those guys I listed (and there’s a ton more) were either hyped or put up good to great numbers in the KHL yet couldn’t make it as even average NHL players.

So posters should really stop acting like it’s a guarantee Gusev is a star and that Vegas lost this trade already because they gave up a 27yo with 0 games of NHL experience.

Still remains to be seen how he ends up. Anything less than 50 or so pts and the trade doesn’t look bad for Vegas at all.

You're certainly implying that he is. Why else would you bring up clearly inferior players? We've already established that Gusev isn't putting up "good to great numbers." He's dominating the league and has been doing so for a while. You insist on comparing apples to oranges.

The only reason to bring up these other guys is to suggest that because other Russians failed to succeed in the NHL it means Gusev will meet the same fate.

Regardless, even if he is just a regular top-6 guy, a 2nd and a 3rd is not a huge price to pay for a top-6 guy. NJ paid that exact same price for Palmieri and Johansson. Even if he's "only" as good as Palmieri that's still a steal of a deal for NJ.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You're certainly implying that he is. Why else would you bring up clearly inferior players? We've already established that Gusev isn't putting up "good to great numbers." He's dominating the league and has been doing so for a while. You insist on comparing apples to oranges.

The only reason to bring up these other guys is to suggest that because other Russians failed to succeed in the NHL it means Gusev will meet the same fate.

Regardless, even if he is just a regular top-6 guy, a 2nd and a 3rd is not a huge price to pay for a top-6 guy. NJ paid that exact same price for Palmieri and Johansson. Even if he's "only" as good as Palmieri that's still a steal of a deal for NJ.

No, I’m implying that he’s far from a guarantee to be a star, and this is far from a guarantee to be an awful deal for Vegas like a good amount of posters are stating already.

A 2nd/3rd pick is what most okay 2nd line 50pt players will get at the deadline or in trades in general. If that’s all Gusev ends up then still a good deal for NJ (and worth the risk) but far from an awful move by Vegas.

I bring up those other players because while they weren’t as good (except Ship), they didn’t even end up as okay NHL players. Some weren’t even NHL caliber at all.

So yes this could be a massive win for NJ, But there’s not a whole lot to back that up on other than pointing to his stats in a league that doesn’t even play the same type of ice surface.

Once again, I expect Gusev to be a 2nd line player, but WAY too early to determine a winner/loser here.

 

[cgf]

The Devils have added a lot of talent this offseason with PK, Hughes & Gusev now...even if I think Gusev's game loses more coming to the NHL than did Radulov or Panarin's and so expect him to cap out around 50-60 points, rather than the PPG that the other two are capable of.

The left side of that blueline still causes concern and the depth is still a work-in-progress...but they've certainly made Hall a great pitch on staying, without losing their flexibility to pivot if things don't come together for them this season & Hall won't re-sign. But I think they've done a lot to give that team a good shot at postseason hockey & themselves a good shot of convincing Hall to stick around, so they very well may not even need to pivot.

...the further we get from Brodeur having played for them, the easier it becomes to say nice things about them as an Avs fan

 

[AfroThunder396]

No, I’m implying that he’s far from a guarantee to be a star, and this is far from a guarantee to be an awful deal for Vegas like a good amount of posters are stating already.

A 2nd/3rd pick is what most okay 2nd line 50pt players will get at the deadline or in trades in general. If that’s all Gusev ends up then still a good deal for NJ (and worth the risk) but far from an awful move by Vegas.

I bring up those other players because while they weren’t as good (except Ship), they didn’t even end up as okay NHL players. Some weren’t even NHL caliber at all.

So yes this could be a massive win for NJ, But there’s not a whole lot to back that up on other than pointing to his stats in a league that doesn’t even play the same type of ice surface.

Once again, I expect Gusev to be a 2nd line player, but WAY too early to determine a winner/loser here.

Even if we accept the worst case scenario, that Gusev is "just" a 50 point player (which is not "an okay 2nd liner", only 21 LWs got 50+ points last year, but okay sure).

The fact that Vegas, a team who made the playoffs by 3 points and lost in the first round, was unable to pay and play a guy who would have been their 5th leading scorer and an obvious upgrade, because they were capped out and forced to trade him for mediocre futures can in no way be spun as a win.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Even if we accept the worst case scenario, that Gusev is "just" a 50 point player (which is not "an okay 2nd liner", only 21 LWs got 50+ points last year, but okay sure).

The fact that Vegas, a team who made the playoffs by 3 points and lost in the first round, was unable to pay and play a guy who would have been their 5th leading scorer and an obvious upgrade, because they were capped out and forced to trade him for mediocre futures can in no way be spun as a win.

A 2nd/3rd for a 50ish pt player has kind of been market value for a while (see Nyquiwt, Vanek, etc). This also ignores that by no mean is 50pts the “worst case” scenario.

Good teams have to give away good players for picks sometimes. It’s the nature of the cap and we see it literally every season, this one included (Subban, Marleau, Miller, etc).

They could have traded others, but they concluded that to them this was the best option versus paying to give up Holden/Reaves or trading Cizikas.

We’ll see how that turns out.

 

[AfroThunder396]

Trading a 50 point player to hold on to Ryan Reaves is a loss, period, no discussion, see me after class.

 

[JimEIV]

No, I’m implying that he’s far from a guarantee to be a star, and this is far from a guarantee to be an awful deal for Vegas like a good amount of posters are stating already.

A 2nd/3rd pick is what most okay 2nd line 50pt players will get at the deadline or in trades in general. If that’s all Gusev ends up then still a good deal for NJ (and worth the risk) but far from an awful move by Vegas.

I bring up those other players because while they weren’t as good (except Ship), they didn’t even end up as okay NHL players. Some weren’t even NHL caliber at all.

So yes this could be a massive win for NJ, But there’s not a whole lot to back that up on other than pointing to his stats in a league that doesn’t even play the same type of ice surface.

Once again, I expect Gusev to be a 2nd line player, but WAY too early to determine a winner/loser here.

This last sentence seems awfully contradictory?

If the 2nd(2021) and 3rd(2020) both turned out to be NHL players you most likely wont know until 5 or 6 years from now or at what level that is...At best 4 or 5 years...

So here is my thought, an NHL regular today, regardless of level is worth substantially more than the promise of two NHL regulars 6 years from now.

If Gusev comes to New Jersey plays 40 NHL games and goes back to Russia, that is 40 NHL games the 2nd round pick in 2021 and the 3rd in 2020 wouldn't have played at least for another 4 years...That is in the dream case scenario of both being NHL players which more than likely wont happen.

This is a no lose for New Jersey. In the worst case scenario they burned some picks and cash taking a stab to get better now. New Jersey is done with hording picks and saving money they have been doing exactly that for the last 6 years.

Look at the leading rookie scorers from this season - 2019 is just now seeing 1st rounders from 2015 in Colton White, 2015 2nd rounder in Anthony Cirelli and Boston's 2014 pick in Ryan Donato. So in these best case scenario's you're 5 years out to get 68 games from Donato a 2nd round pick from 2014?

 

[nbwingsfan]

This last sentence seems awfully contradictory?

If the 2nd(2021) and 3rd(2020) both turned out to be NHL players you most likely wont know until 5 or 6 years from now or at what level that is...At best 4 or 5 years...

So here is my thought, an NHL regular today, regardless of level is worth substantially more than the promise of two NHL regulars 6 years from now.

If Gusev comes to New Jersey plays 40 NHL games and goes back to Russia, that is 40 NHL games the 2nd round pick in 2021 and the 3rd in 2020 wouldn't have played at least for another 4 years...That is in the dream case scenario of both being NHL players which more than likely wont happen.

This is a no lose for New Jersey. In the worst case scenario they burned some picks and cash taking a stab to get better now. New Jersey is done with hording picks and saving money they have been doing exactly that for the last 6 years.

Look at the leading rookie scorers from this season - 2019 is just now seeing 1st rounders from 2015 in Colton White, 2015 2nd rounder in Anthony Cirelli and Boston's 2014 pick in Ryan Donato. So in these best case scenario's you're 5 years out to get 68 games from Donato a 2nd round pick from 2014?

That’s a really weird stance to go on... would you like if your team gave up two late 1st rd picks for Ryan Reaves just because Reaves will play in the NHL this season and those 1st rd picks won’t?

Better yet, did Toronto do a great job on the Kessel for Seguin/Hamilton trade just because they got extra seasons out of Kessel instead of having those two? What about Raycroft for Rask?

It’s all about perceived value. NJ values Gusev over the 2nd/3rd pick, and Vegas valued those picks/cap space over Gusev.

We’ll have a better idea if it was a good deal once Gusev actually plays a game, but for now it’s 3 unknowns.

 

[JimEIV]

That’s a really weird stance to go on... would you like if your team gave up two late 1st rd picks for Ryan Reaves just because Reaves will play in the NHL this season and those 1st rd picks won’t?

Better yet, did Toronto do a great job on the Kessel for Seguin/Hamilton trade just because they got extra seasons out of Kessel instead of having those two? What about Raycroft for Rask?

It’s all about perceived value. NJ values Gusev over the 2nd/3rd pick, and Vegas valued those picks/cap space over Gusev.

We’ll have a better idea if it was a good deal once Gusev actually plays a game, but for now it’s 3 unknowns.

You are comparing high 1st rounders to a 2nd two years from now...and a 3rd next year....3rd's are traded for coaches that's how much value they have.

 

[Wats]

Because a 2nd and a 3rd (in different years, too) aren't really that big of a deal.

One year older Andrew Shaw, 47 points in NHL last season making 3.9M/year, fetched same return. Not a big haul, but for a 27 year old who never played in NHL, pretty good return IMO considering what 2nd+3rd usually return in NHL.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You are comparing high 1st rounders to a 2nd two years from now...and a 3rd next year....3rd's are trade for coach thats how much value they have.

So I’ll change the question then. Would you trade a 2nd/3rd for Witowski knowing he might play 40 or so games for you? What about Pirri because once in a while he breaks out?

I’ve also never stated this is/would be a loss for NJ. All I stated is we have no idea if this is a bad move by Vegas yet.

There is, contrary to popular HF belief, such thing as Win/Win trades.

 

[JimEIV]

So I’ll change the question then. Would you trade a 2nd/3rd for Witowski knowing he might play 40 or so games for you? What about Pirri because once in a while he breaks out?

I’ve also never stated this is/would be a loss for NJ. All I stated is we have no idea if this is a bad move by Vegas yet.

There is, contrary to popular HF belief, such thing as Win/Win trades.

I absolutely believe in Win/Win trades....Trading a player with gun to your head because of the salary Cap doesn't have the makings of a win though...That can only be a salvageable situation.