Vegas Expansion Thread (Nate Schmidt selected)

[Tweedsuitcase]

also- i was expecting more trade news today...what gives?

 

[twabby]

How can people look at all these different trades and assume the asking price to avoid picking Schmidt was affordable? There's no consistency to the valuation. GMGM was fleecing whom he could fleece and getting what he could from other teams.

It's been reported that the price for Schmidt was prohibitively high. I'm guessing something like two firsts and a prospect. It may be worth a 2018 first to protect Schmidt when you expect to be middle of the pack or better. More than that is probably pushing it. I doubt GMGM was asking for just a late first.

I'm less inclined to believe that the price was prohibitively expensive and more inclined to believe that management simply didn't properly value Schmidt when it came to meeting McPhee's asking price. Schmidt has been undervalued his entire tenure in Washington so why should we believe all of a sudden that MacLellan (and Trotz) recognize his talents now when we have 3 years of evidence suggesting they don't really believe in him?

 

[twabby]

The more I think about the Caps losing Nate Schmidt, the worse the problems seem to me.

First, you've lost a young player who has blossomed into a solid NHL defenceman.

Schmidt was ready for a top 4 role next season. The Caps were expecting him to play in a top 4 role. They don't seem to have a backup plan.

Second, you're probably not buying out Brooks Orpik now. The Caps don't really have anyone else in the org who can play a top 4 role.

That's not to say Orpik is really fit for the top 4. He was better this year, but he was down on the 3rd pairing. Not sure he keeps it up.

Third, if you're not buying out Orpik, you're not making a big FA move. Whether that was Oshie or someone else, that option is probably gone

Fourth, does this make them think twice about letting Alzner walk? It shouldn't, but it might. And that would be bad, bad, bad.

Fifth, Washington had a decent second asset to offer (Grubauer) so keeping Schmidt couldn't have been that pricey. He's gotta be worth a 1st

The more I think on it, the more I wonder if WSH shouldn't have gone 4-4-1.

You likely lose Burakovsky, but your offseason problems seem simpler. Bring back Oshie, bring up Vrana, you're not that far behind.

The other thing you could do here is offer a 1st to take Eller or Wilson instead of Burakovsky. Which doesn't seem absurd, right?

Basically if you switch around the protection scheme you get to the same place (giving up a 1st) but it makes it easier to justify...

since you're keeping Burakovsky/MarJo/whoever.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts. Not sure I would have gone 4-4-1 but it's an interesting discussion to have at least. His point about Grubauer probably lowering the cost of staying away from Schmidt is a solid one and why I question if the price really was prohibitively high. Not like the Anaheim situation, for example, where they selected Clayton Stoner who has no real value to speak of at a pretty high cost to Anaheim.

 

[um]

We should have gone 4-4-1 and then traded Johansson for an exempt player, like Kapanen.

I just picked a name from my 1B team, don't get caught up on Kapanen.

 

[Demandedace]

Pretty much sums up my thoughts. Not sure I would have gone 4-4-1 but it's an interesting discussion to have at least. His point about Grubauer probably lowering the cost of staying away from Schmidt is a solid one and why I question if the price really was prohibitively high. Not like the Anaheim situation, for example, where they selected Clayton Stoner who has no real value to speak of at a pretty high cost to Anaheim.

Perhaps, but the fact remains that Vegas had pretty much all of the power thanks to this format. They had 100% of the veto power, so it wasn't about reaching a compromise with them, it was about giving them what they really wanted.

In a traditional trading situation the counterpoint with Grubs value would hold more weight, but since this is really a poaching situation it's just a bargaining chip

 

[twabby]

Perhaps, but the fact remains that Vegas had pretty much all of the power thanks to this format. They had 100% of the veto power, so it wasn't about reaching a compromise with them, it was about giving them what they really wanted.

In a traditional trading situation the counterpoint with Grubs value would hold more weight, but since this is really a poaching situation it's just a bargaining chip

Right, we're all just speculating here.

But I'm not really inclined to give Washington the benefit of the doubt w/r/t Schmidt given the way he has been undervalued by the organization his entire career.

 

[Demandedace]

Right, we're all just speculating here.

But I'm not really inclined to give Washington the benefit of the doubt w/r/t Schmidt given the way he has been undervalued by the organization his entire career.

True, we never gave him a truly fair shake here until it was too late - and now we can't which sucks.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I think we're kinda screwed.

 

[g00n]

I'm less inclined to believe that the price was prohibitively expensive and more inclined to believe that management simply didn't properly value Schmidt when it came to meeting McPhee's asking price. Schmidt has been undervalued his entire tenure in Washington so why should we believe all of a sudden that MacLellan (and Trotz) recognize his talents now when we have 3 years of evidence suggesting they don't really believe in him?

You've seen these deals, right? Why are we defaulting to thinking they didn't value Schmidt when they recently said he would be top 4?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Must be killing Twabby to see his boy 88 gone. An Orlov trade might send you right off the cliff!


After sleeping on it....I'm still not that broken up about it honestly. Schmidt is boasting a severe case of overratedness around here.

 

[g00n]

Wait, it only took a 2020 2nd rounder to get mcphee to take MAF? Definitely a grudge.

 

[twabby]

You've seen these deals, right? Why are we defaulting to thinking they didn't value Schmidt when they recently said he would be top 4?

What expansion draft deals in particular do you think Vegas got good value from? Maybe Marchesseault and Smith from Florida? And even then Reilly Smith was more of a cap- and internal budget dump than Vegas playing hardball.

The deals NYI, ANA, MIN, etc. made were all good values from those teams' perspectives IMO to avoid key players getting selected. I think McPhee had a terrible expansion draft and unless he had a personal vendetta against Washington (possible, but not likely) I still doubt he was asking too much for Schmidt given the other deals that transpired.

Again, all speculation, but I'm not willing to given MacLellan the benefit of the doubt unless details are released about McPhee's asking price.

 

[Langway]

The deals NYI, ANA, MIN, etc. made were all good values from those teams' perspectives IMO to avoid key players getting selected. I think McPhee had a terrible expansion draft and unless he had a personal vendetta against Washington (possible, but not likely) I still doubt he was asking too much for Schmidt given the other deals that transpired.

Again, all speculation, but I'm not willing to given MacLellan the benefit of the doubt unless details are released about McPhee's asking price.

Was MacLellan prepared to take The Pledge? That likely would have helped had he attempted to steer McPhee away from the beginning. Who knows. Maybe MacLellan was prepared to take his chances 50/50 that it would be Grubauer rather than Schmidt. I wonder if he pursued a Grubauer trade at all just to gain a sense of the goaltender market? Schmidt's selection makes it very likely that he holds the superior trade value of the two. Who knows if they anticipated that.

I'm not convinced Schmidt is worth losing a first rounder to them. The immediate cap hit/role says yes but AAV aside I'd think they could get a better player for that. Like I said, his skating will make him in demand but his actual skill level and upside remain unclear.

 

[OV Rocks]

I don't think that people realize how hard it is going to be next season to replace some of these players.

Nate Schmidt is a cheap top-4 dman that plays "today's game". Who will replace that at his cap hit? Nobody on the roster or in a trade and certainly not in free agency. Now there is hole at left d on the 2nd pairing. Who plays there? A rookie, Orpik, a free agent? Caps don't have a top-4 ready rookie, Orpik CANNOT handle the minutes, and a free agent top-4 d will be $4.5 minimum.

Caps have a horrible history of asset management when it comes time to sell them this is just another example of that.

There are going to be tons of holes in the lineup it is scary

 

[Demandedace]

If you're feeling really depressed about last night, just remember that at least we aren't the Florida "Gonna have trouble scoring any goals" Panthers

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Tons of holes....yeah but that was expected. Can't see us being any worse than a first round out in the playoffs. 1st round, 2nd....who cares honestly? We just crapped the bed with a loaded roster. Are a few holes for young players really the end of the world?

Will be interesting to see if GMBM can pull off some decent moves or do they finally pay the piper and accept a little bit of an off year?

Life as a Caps fan.

 

[RandyHolt]

For all the talk of getting younger, we don't seem to trust our own prospects very much.

 

[ynotcaps]

It sucks that we lost Schmidt, but it's not like that is going to be the thing that kills us next year. It sure doesn't help matters by any stretch, but consider we're coming off THE 2 year window that, by the team's own admission, was THE window to get the Cup won. We all knew that the piper was going to have to be paid this off-season.

But as we hurt (to various degrees) over losing 88, let's not forget:
*8's another year older
*So is 19
*We lose at least 1 of Oshie/Williams, and quite possibly both
*Alzner's either gone or overpaid for what he offers now
*Orpik is Methuselah -- with a higher price tag -- and now means more to us than he did (or should) given the loss of 88 and the likely loss of 27
*Our system is as weak as it's been in years, and provides no-one that I would consider "probable" or even "hopeful" to be a replacement-level player for anyone they would come up to replace
*We have no money to make moves without opening new holes in the existing roster
*We have no draft capital whatsoever this year, and no 2nd next year -- all we have are future picks, but trading those perpetuates that cycle

So, yeah, losing Smilin' Nate sucks, but we have a hell lot more going against us than just that.

If I can try to put any positive spin on this, it's that if being overloaded with skill and dominant in the RS didn't get it done, maybe -- MAYBE -- they'll find their identity in hard work and smarts.

Did I say "maybe"?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Losing Schmidt wasnt what I wanted, but listening to people here, it sounds like we just lost to Pitt in GM 7 again.

Losing to Pitt is/was far more upsetting that Nate Schmidt getting selected. I'm fine with it. I'm more upset that McPhee did the Pens such a huge favour in taking Fleury. That fakking franchise ALWAYS lands on its feet, like a damned cat. Drives me insane.

Caps will be fine, and perhaps even get an underdog status next year. Couldnt hurt. They will allow young guys to play at D (Pens D wasnt anything exciting, yet here they are, 2 deep in Cups), and focus on retaining their forwards.

Seriously.....Carlson/Orpik was a good pairing in 2014-15, and thats prob out middle pair for 2017-18. At least to start. Bowey, Djoos, Sieganthaler, Lewington etc should all get playing time. Good. Chorney will be in the mix

If the Caps can resign Oshie, then their offense will be good. We still have our center depth, and our wing depth, and Holtby. Prob trade Grubauer for something. Either futures or young roster player.

Losing to the Pens was brutally painful. This stuff now...Schmidt etc, is just an irritant. Get a grip people

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Losing Schmidt wasnt what I wanted, but listening to people here, it sounds like we just lost to Pitt in GM 7 again.

Losing to Pitt is/was far more upsetting that Nate Schmidt getting selected. I'm fine with it. I'm more upset that McPhee did the Pens such a huge favour in taking Fleury. That fakking franchise ALWAYS lands on its feet, like a damned cat. Drives me insane.

Caps will be fine, and perhaps even get an underdog status next year. Couldnt hurt. They will allow young guys to play at D (Pens D wasnt anything exciting, yet here they are, 2 deep in Cups), and focus on retaining their forwards.

Seriously.....Carlson/Orpik was a good pairing in 2014-15, and thats prob out middle pair for 2017-18. At least to start. Bowey, Djoos, Sieganthaler, Lewington etc should all get playing time. Good. Chorney will be in the mix

If the Caps can resign Oshie, then their offense will be good. We still have our center depth, and our wing depth, and Holtby. Prob trade Grubauer for something. Either futures or young roster player.

Losing to the Pens was brutally painful. This stuff now...Schmidt etc, is just an irritant. Get a grip people

Well said.

 

[Carlzner]

The league is heavily marketing this Fleury to Vegas move. It's absurd.

I would not be surprised at all if they played a hand in that pick. Typical.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well said.

I'm also very confident in 2 things:

1. GMBM will add to the team, and help them field as competitive a roster as possible. Nothing he's done for the past 3 years dissuades me from thinking that.

2. This is where Trotz and his "system" will actually help us. I think a lot. He will mask the deficiencies on defense, and again allow the forwards to help on D and score. The PP will be tremendous again. While I think Trotz definitely somewhat limited the stacked roster, he will also help the stack the limited roster (see what I did there?)

If Orlov continue to develop, and Carlson returns to form, I'm not really worried about the defense. They have good young players in Hershey. Let them play and earn the lumps it takes to succeed in the NHL.

Hell....I would *love it* if the Caps could draw the Pens in round 1 next year. Right off the bat. Change the script. They easily could. Start slowly with all the changes, catch fire mid season, end up 4th in Metro and play top seed Presidents Winning Trophy Pittsburgh.

GOOD.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The league is heavily marketing this Fleury to Vegas move. It's absurd.

I would not be surprised at all if they played a hand in that pick. Typical.

Of course it did. It's all be design.

 

[marcel snapshot]

Have been a fan of Schmidt's skill set for awhile. He made Carlson better when paired with him, and he made Shattenkirk better when paired with him. In both those situations, he stepped in for, cough, Orpik - whose game style and skill set are past their expiration date.

Not freaking out that we lost Schmidt - but he does illustrate how weak this organization is at staying ahead of the curve. We went to a "heavy" defense-centric style of play just as the top teams in the league were cycling out of it - so we picked up players whose strengths were geared to a style that had already had its heyday. Then we were slow to transition toward a more up-tempo, puck-movement style of play and several of our key players (Ovie, Orpik, Alzner - Nick to some degree) weren't well-suited to it. And we failed to identify one of our few players that was well-suited to it - Schmidt - until perhaps too late, since we gave up a first-rounder to bring Shattenkirk in to push Schmidt out. Only to find that pushing Schmidt out made the team worse, not better and thus we went to 7 D in the playoffs in a (not too successful) attempt to limit the damage that Orpik and Alzner were doing to us.

This organization is repeatedly late in recognizing macro-trend changes in how the game is played, and it is repeatedly late in recognizing both flaws in players perceived as core, and strengths in players it considers marginal (Schmidt, and of course, Forsberg come immediately to mind). They become way too invested in decisions/assessments they make, and are simply not agile about re-assessing when circumstances warrant. It's as if they have an organizational aversion to doing anything that would suggest that what they did or thought before wasn't really smart. And that's how organizations wither.

 

[Hivemind]

If this was a year or two from now and they had Johansen and Siegenthaler knocking on the door for NHL roles, it would be a lot easier to accept a loss of Schmidt. But as of now, Djoos is the only in-house replacement they have, and his NHL upside is questionable. Bowey is a RD, was already being penciled into the line-up by many even while Schmidt was here, and is coming off of a mixed bag of a season where he got derailed by injury. Maybe they can find a 1-2 year stopgap to try and bridge the gap to the new prospects, but making it fit into the salary cap will be difficult.

Other option would be to dumpster dive to fill out the roster, then try and bank up whatever cap space they can to fix LD at the deadline. 2018 UFA market looks really good at the moment, but so do all UFA markets when you're a year away (before players start signing new contracts with their existing teams). But if someone like Vlasic or Enstrom were to be available at the deadline, it could result in the best top 4 they've had ever. Granted, it's a pretty big "if" that those players will be available or that Washington can manage to bank that much cap space without giving up on all their forward holes (Oshie, Williams, etc). Plus the cost of acquiring those players would at least rival what they paid for Shattenkirk.

One way or another, they still have to move Orpik. Using his play a couple years ago to justify his cost going forward will only hinder the team further. Even then, Orpik/Carlson wasn't a great pairing. It was able to tread the water well enough that the other two pairings could excel in easy match-ups, but it wasn't a pairing that pushed play forwards. If they want any hope of being able to patch the holes at forward AND defense, they need Orpik's $5.5M off the books.