Vegas Expansion Thread (Nate Schmidt selected)

[Raikkonen]

Retain salary on Eller's contract and send him somewhere to get assets back.

I'd like to see him traded without retention but 5M salary makes me doubting it will happen.

If we aren't playing Ovi with Eller I don't think he's worth to keep.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm also very confident in 2 things:

1. GMBM will add to the team, and help them field as competitive a roster as possible. Nothing he's done for the past 3 years dissuades me from thinking that.

2. This is where Trotz and his "system" will actually help us. I think a lot. He will mask the deficiencies on defense, and again allow the forwards to help on D and score. The PP will be tremendous again. While I think Trotz definitely somewhat limited the stacked roster, he will also help the stack the limited roster (see what I did there?)

If Orlov continue to develop, and Carlson returns to form, I'm not really worried about the defense. They have good young players in Hershey. Let them play and earn the lumps it takes to succeed in the NHL.

Hell....I would *love it* if the Caps could draw the Pens in round 1 next year. Right off the bat. Change the script. They easily could. Start slowly with all the changes, catch fire mid season, end up 4th in Metro and play top seed Presidents Winning Trophy Pittsburgh.

GOOD.

Completely agree with all of this.

The only thing that dissuades me about how effective #1 will be, is our lack of assets. I definitely think GMBM makes at least one good impact move.

 

[RandyHolt]

....
This organization is repeatedly late..... And that's how organizations wither.

Well said.

 

[Jags]

Right, we're all just speculating here.

But I'm not really inclined to give Washington the benefit of the doubt w/r/t Schmidt given the way he has been undervalued by the organization his entire career.

But as long as we're speculating, what do you think would have happened if they had properly valued him? Isn't it likely that he would have played more, upped his value, and Vegas takes him regardless?

We could still only have protected 3, and it doesn't seem likely that Schmidt taking a step forward would have changed anyone's mind about Carlson or whoever else. You'd still be looking at 3 protection spots and 4 very valuable guys to protect.

I'll grant you that Schmidt could have played the Shattenkirk deal out of existence and those assets could have gone to helping us keep him. But in that scenario you're talking about a much more valuable version of Nate Schmidt, where there would be no question of his value over Grubauer's and a likely pricetag as big or bigger than some of those paid to Vegas for protection yesterday.

We can guess like this all day long, but the end result is pretty much the same. I doubt we'd come up with any scenarios the guys who got paid to do this full-time didn't think of.

 

[Demandedace]

But as long as we're speculating, what do you think would have happened if they had properly valued him? Isn't it likely that he would have played more, upped his value, and Vegas takes him regardless?

We could still only have protected 3, and it doesn't seem likely that Schmidt taking a step forward would have changed anyone's mind about Carlson or whoever else. You'd still be looking at 3 protection spots and 4 very valuable guys to protect.

I'll grant you that Schmidt could have played the Shattenkirk deal out of existence and those assets could have gone to helping us keep him. But in that scenario you're talking about a much more valuable version of Nate Schmidt, where there would be no question of his value over Grubauer's and a likely pricetag as big or bigger than some of those paid to Vegas for protection yesterday.

We can guess like this all day long, but the end result is pretty much the same. I doubt we'd come up with any scenarios the guys who got paid to do this full-time didn't think of.

I think that the most rational response to this that I've seen was the argument which involved using the alternate protection format and likely losing Bura instead of Schmidt. Idk how I feel about that prospect either though, we were kind of in a damned if you do-damned if you don't situation

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If Burt doesn't end up having the better NHL career, something went wrong. Zero chance you expose a kid of his talent. Let's not forget still only 22 until Feb 2018.

 

[twabby]

But as long as we're speculating, what do you think would have happened if they had properly valued him? Isn't it likely that he would have played more, upped his value, and Vegas takes him regardless?

We could still only have protected 3, and it doesn't seem likely that Schmidt taking a step forward would have changed anyone's mind about Carlson or whoever else. You'd still be looking at 3 protection spots and 4 very valuable guys to protect.

I'll grant you that Schmidt could have played the Shattenkirk deal out of existence and those assets could have gone to helping us keep him. But in that scenario you're talking about a much more valuable version of Nate Schmidt, where there would be no question of his value over Grubauer's and a likely pricetag as big or bigger than some of those paid to Vegas for protection yesterday.

We can guess like this all day long, but the end result is pretty much the same. I doubt we'd come up with any scenarios the guys who got paid to do this full-time didn't think of.

If Schmidt were given a top 4 role all season long as he should have been (ahead of Alzner and Orpik, neither of whom showed nearly as much as Schmidt) then maybe they could have had the flexibility to either move Carlson for a haul before the expansion draft or perhaps a trade opportunity could have opened up for Schmidt to return a legitimate forward who could have been protected in place of Eller or Wilson (or who might have been exempt from the expansion draft). I still think they should have explored a Carlson trade pre-expansion draft regardless but I doubt they did, and now it's likely that they have to hold onto him for next season due to Schmidt's absence. It's fine to keep Carlson but they need to have him signed to extension this summer otherwise he could walk for nothing which would be a disaster.

Regarding the bolded statement I don't have faith in a lot of GMs so I can't agree with it. Far too many get to their positions based off something other than merit, not that this is a unique phenomenon in professional hockey. Is it really that far-fetched to think that NHL GMs don't think through every scenario given some of the moves that they make? A lot of them are clueless.

As an aside I just can't see how people are missing the positive effect Schmidt has on all of his teammates, even if you choose to ignore his advanced stats (which of course are fantastic). Who was Carlson's partner when he played his best hockey of the year? Who was Orpik's partner when he suddenly revitalized his game (and who will almost surely fall apart without him next season IMO)? Who had the most instant chemistry with Shattenkirk when he arrived? Schmidt is the answer to all of those questions and now he's gone. Even if the asking price might have been higher than a first round pick in 2018, some people here wouldn't have even parted with that.

Losing Schmidt is a big deal.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not in terms of winning a Cup, or even advancing a damn round. Nate Schmidt is not a difference maker of that class, therefor he will be missed, but is hardly irreplaceable. I'm willing to wait and see how GMBM decides to replace him before I get all apocalyptic. I'm almost hoping it's Alzner just to watch the show...

 

[hockeykicker]

what are the odds that the capitals made schmidt better then he was and now that he is gone he will be bad?

seems like that happens a lot, with semin he put up great numbers with caps and then fell off the earth

steckel put up a good 4th line stats with caps then couldnt stay in league
eric fehr couldnt do anything once he left the caps
chimera got his only 2 40 point seasons with caps
brouwers best seasons came with caps
ward although had a good year last year didnt do anything til he joined caps

seems like there are numerous instances where a player is really good on caps and then cant do anything on other teams (off course there are a few that do well off caps too)

 

[Hivemind]

I'd be very curious to see a leak about what the ask was from McPhee to protect Schmidt. I don't trust Vogel on an issue like this, given that he's effectively a mouthpiece for the organization. If it was in line with what Minnesota had to pay to protect Dumba/Scandella/Staal, I would definitely be pissed that they didn't take it. Heck, I'd even be pissed if they passed up an Anaheim valued deal if it meant offloading a bloated contract (Orpik) just as Anaheim did (Stoner). Bowey and Grubauer together are worth more than Schmidt, but Bowey and off-loading Orpik's $5.5M would be a huge step in the right direction.

The Islanders move to have Vegas pick Berube combined with the Penguins move to secure a Fleury selection and McPhee's decision to only pick 3 goaltenders is what doomed a Grubauer selection.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He could easily regress on a bad team not getting bailed out by a Vezina winner/nominee and/or surrounded by lesser talent. Not sure how likely, but it's not unthinkable.

 

[Revelation]

The funny thing is if the caps were offered Schmidt for one of Johansson, Eller or Wilson straight up they'd probably take it in an instant. At least if they want their team to be competitive next season. It's a no brainer for me at least.

 

[hockeykicker]

The funny thing is if the caps were offered Schmidt for one of Johansson, Eller or Wilson straight up they'd probably take it in an instant. At least if they want their team to be competitive next season. It's a no brainer for me at least.

why in the world would they ask for tom wilson or lars eller? come on now

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

Did any teams go 4-4-1?

 

[hockeykicker]

Did any teams go 4-4-1?

think just the islanders. could be wrong

 

[Revelation]

why in the world would they ask for tom wilson or lars eller? come on now

figure it out

 

[Langway]

think just the islanders. could be wrong

NYI went five D. Nashville and Pittsburgh went 4-4-1.

 

[hockeykicker]

figure it out

ok ill figure it out.. answer: 1) george mcphee doesnt seem to like caps. 2) schmidt is worth more then tom wilson and lars eller, 3) caps cant acquire schmidt no matter what they offer per nhl rules. 4) trading mojo to vegas for schmidt but with no garuntee they keep williams/oshie literally takes away 50% of caps offense

so i did figure it out

 

[hockeykicker]

NYI went five D. Nashville and Pittsburgh went 4-4-1.

isles did a 3-5-1? ah knew it was something like that

 

[Tweedsuitcase]

NYI went five D. Nashville and Pittsburgh went 4-4-1.

damn, that sucks. Pitt could go 4-4-1 knowing in advance they'd take fleury.

 

[Revelation]

ok ill figure it out.. answer: 1) george mcphee doesnt seem to like caps. 2) schmidt is worth more then tom wilson and lars eller, 3) caps cant acquire schmidt no matter what they offer per nhl rules. 4) trading mojo to vegas for schmidt but with no garuntee they keep williams/oshie literally takes away 50% of caps offense

so i did figure it out

Or they protect 4-4-1 to begin with and lose one of Johansson, Eller or Wilson instead.

So simple yet you still couldn't figure it out.

Losing Schmidt costs more offense than losing Mojo. Someone would actually need to get the puck to Mojo in the first place

 

[Hivemind]

The MoJo hate is reaching the absurd.

 

[um]

we wouldn't have had to let Vegas take Mojo, we could have traded him easily. Or just do what Minnesota did and have Vegas take Wilson+.

 

[Revelation]

No one hates Mojo but he's not as important as Schmidt would be to this team.

Hell, cash in on his value while clearing cap and leave Eller or Wilson for Vegas.

 

[strungout]

No one hates Mojo but he's not as important as Schmidt would be to this team.

Hell, cash in on his value while clearing cap and leave Eller or Wilson for Vegas.