Prospect Info: Vasili Podkolzin, Pt. II

[FreeMcdavid]

Fact is he hasn't produced impressive numbers at any level. Didn't even crack a point per game in his 12 games at the junior level in his draft year. Expecting him to translate to the hardest league in the world and start producing right away without showing significant production in any league before is probably wishful thinking.

who is expecting him to produce point wise in the NHL right away?

I think he can play a top 9 role and be a big part of the team without being relied on to put up points. His game is 2way. He will kill penalties, he will be responsible and he will chip in with some playmaking.

I would not mind at all if he got the same development opportunity as Horvat did when he cracked the lineup.
Middle/bottom 6 before eventaully moving up the line up and expanding his role.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Fact is he hasn't produced impressive numbers at any level. Didn't even crack a point per game in his 12 games at the junior level in his draft year. Expecting him to translate to the hardest league in the world and start producing right away without showing significant production in any league before is probably wishful thinking.

Reading is hard I know

 

[Rumsfeld]

I'm unhappy with his production, even in context. Feel like he's talented enough to put up more assists. Still love lots of the things this player brings, but at 10 overall these days you want to see some numbers, regardless of league and usage.

 

[clay]

Reading is hard I know

Get out of here troll.

 

[FreeMcdavid]

I'm unhappy with his production, even in context. Feel like he's talented enough to put up more assists. Still love lots of the things this player brings, but at 10 overall these days you want to see some numbers, regardless of league and usage.

You have unrealistic expectations then.

He got 13 shifts today, non on the PP and his linemate were fellow youngster Ivan Morozov. What exactly do you think he can do vs professionals in those circumstances?

I get it though. Most dont get to see him play and all we get our snippets and stat watching.

Its much sexier to see production of guys like Zegras, Boldy, Caufield, Newhook who are all playing in the NCAA.

But compariong The KHL to a league where more than 50% wont even play professional hockey is insane.

It looks like Podz will just have to dominate the WJC this December to show everyone his progress, dang is he going to ever surprise some people.

 

[Nucker101]

I'm unhappy with his production, even in context. Feel like he's talented enough to put up more assists. Still love lots of the things this player brings, but at 10 overall these days you want to see some numbers, regardless of league and usage.

Agreed. I think he brings some valuable things to the table but offensively he seems to have more like a 2nd line ceiling.

 

[Rumsfeld]

You have unrealistic expectations then.

He got 13 shifts today, non on the PP and his linemate were fellow youngster Ivan Morozov. What exactly do you think he can do vs professionals in those circumstances?

I get it though. Most dont get to see him play and all we get our snippets and stat watching.

Its much sexier to see production of guys like Zegras, Boldy, Caufield, Newhook who are all playing in the NCAA.

But compariong The KHL to a league where more than 50% wont even play professional hockey is insane.

It looks like Podz will just have to dominate the WJC this December to show everyone his progress, dang is he going to ever surprise some people.

If he was doing great you'd be creaming yourself about his NHL prospects. Penciling him in on the first line for the next ten years.

He's struggling, so predictably there are excuses and Wait and See. I've seen this movie before.

Think I was pretty clear that I love a *ton* of what this player brings. But his numbers are disappointing and you going into full shill mode -- like you do for every Vancouver prospect -- isn't going to change my mind.

 

[CpatainCanuck]

Is he for sure going to play in the WJC this year? That should provide some context regarding how he is actually developing.

 

[FreeMcdavid]

If he was doing great you'd be creaming yourself about his NHL prospects. Penciling him in on the first line for the next ten years.

He's struggling, so predictably there are excuses and Wait and See. I've seen this movie before.

Think I was pretty clear that I love a *ton* of what this player brings. But his numbers are disappointing and you going into full shill mode -- like you do for every Vancouver prospect -- isn't going to change my mind.

I do have him penciled in our top 6 for the next ten years.

I can see his worth. Im not just following his stats

and to say he is "Struggling" just proves you have watched sqwat of him this season.

He isnt getting minutes or opportunities this is true, but he is not struggling when he is on the ice.

Production point wise isnt what you gauge a prospect like him with his opportunity and circumstance.

If he was getting dominated everytime he was on the ice then yes id agree with you that he is struggling, but this isnt the case.

As i mentioned in previous post, you must be pretty disappointed with these prospects who have similar point production at same age in KHL..

Gergor Denisenko
Vitali Kravtsov
Denis Gurianov
Kril Marchenko
Ivan Morozov




Why dont we take a look at stats since you love stats. Here are drafted Russian players drafted same year as Podz

In draft order

Vladislv Firstov - NCAA
Yefgor Afanasayev- CHL
Nikita Alexandrov- CHL
PAvel Dorofoyev- KHL 0 pts in 11 game - 2 pts in 9 VHL games

 

[ChilliBilly]

He just turned 19 4 months ago, and he's playing with men. Bloody hell expectations are high around here. Lets wait and see how he does at the WJC when he goes back to playing against teenagers.

 

[Rumsfeld]

I do have him penciled in our top 6 for the next ten years.

I can see his worth. Im not just following his stats

and to say he is "Struggling" just proves you have watched sqwat of him this season.

He isnt getting minutes or opportunities this is true, but he is not struggling when he is on the ice.

Production point wise isnt what you gauge a prospect like him with his opportunity and circumstance.

If he was getting dominated everytime he was on the ice then yes id agree with you that he is struggling, but this isnt the case.

As i mentioned in previous post, you must be pretty disappointed with these prospects who have similar point production at same age in KHL..

Gergor Denisenko
Vitali Kravtsov
Denis Gurianov
Kril Marchenko
Ivan Morozov




Why dont we take a look at stats since you love stats. Here are drafted Russian players drafted same year as Podz

In draft order

Vladislv Firstov - NCAA
Yefgor Afanasayev- CHL
Nikita Alexandrov- CHL
PAvel Dorofoyev- KHL 0 pts in 11 game - 2 pts in 9 VHL games

You have literally predicted every Canuck prospect drafted in the last six years will be a top-line player. Let's say you were right this one time. Who cares?

I mean at least you have a better shot being right this time than you were with Virtanen... or Juolevi... or every single other Benning draft pick. Enjoy

 

[FreeMcdavid]

You have literally predicted every Canuck prospect drafted in the last six years will be a top-line player. Let's say you were right this one time. Who cares?

I mean at least you have a better shot being right this time than you were with Virtanen... or Juolevi... or every single other Benning draft pick. Enjoy

i get it now.. this isnt a podkolzin thing its a benning thing. makes more sense now. you should have said so in the first place and i would have gladly ignored your post because its impossible to have unbiased conversations with that narrative.

i apologize for wasying your time and mine..

something something podkolzin disaapointing... carry on

 

[Rumsfeld]

i get it now.. this isnt a podkolzin thing its a benning thing. makes more sense now. you should have said so in the first place and i would have gladly ignored your post because its impossible to have unbiased conversations with that narrative.

i apologize for wasying your time and mine..

something something podkolzin disaapointing... carry on

Yes, if only we could all strive to be as impartial as you have shown to be.

 

[sting101]

but Benning wanted Broberg.

Looks like Hedman right now

 

[lawrence]

but Benning wanted Broberg.

Nah, he wanted Hughes.

 

[Canucks1096]

Nah, he wanted Hughes.

Different draft

 

[FreeMcdavid]

JD Burke speculates that SKA is punishing Podkolzin for planning to leave after this season rather than staying in KHL longer. Punishing him by not giving him much ice time.

Burke also talks about why stat watching isnt a good way to determine progress when it comes to the KHL

Finally Burke thinks Podz will have a bigger role with the Canucks than he has ever had with SKA

Burke: Podkolzin may have bigger role with Canucks than he ever did with his KHL team

 

[The Iron Goalie]

@FreeMcdavid I don't think SKA is out right punishing Podz, but they definitely aren't prioritizing his development anymore after he turned down a 5 yr extension with them before the draft in 2019. From SKA prospective they don't want to prop up a player that will be leaving when the season ends. An unfortunate situation for sure, but at least he's still training and competing on a good team in a good league.

 

[Bam19]

Agreed. I think he brings some valuable things to the table but offensively he seems to have more like a 2nd line ceiling.

If he can be a 50 point defensive bulldog with a good forecheck I don’t think I could think of player we need more of right now.

 

[vanuck]

Podkolzin's lack of production so far in 2020-21 is definitely concerning. As much as we can point the finger to his lack of ice time, being stuck behind older guys while playing for a coach who supposedly loves his veterans etc. eventually he has to put up numbers if he's to become who we want him to be. At some point talent pulls through - the cream rises to the top in spite of everything else.

Another issue is the lack of context surrounding his stats. We know for guys in the CHL that ideally you want to see them put up well north of 1.0 PPG in their D+2 season for them to maintain good odds of developing into an NHL top 6 forward. But what about in Russia? Take a look at this for instance:

Above are the respective PPG for all Russian forwards drafted over the last 15 years who played at least their D+2 season in the RSL/KHL (this is also sorted by D+2 from highest PPG to lowest).

Obviously even a quick glance would tell you that the higher your PPG, the better the chances of you succeeding. Bona fide stars like Malkin, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov all scored well over 0.8 PPG in their D+2 season. Now I don't think anyone here expects Pod to turn out to be that calibre of player, so what about just top 6 forwards in general? That would include guys like Zherdev, Frolov, Buchnevich, Kulemin, Dadonov and Gusev who all range from PPG's of 0.2 to 0.78 with an average of 0.52.

Looking at where Pod is ranked doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. Other than Gusev, the closest comparables in terms of his PPG are all guys who flamed out and never made it. To me, ideally you're looking for him to produce somewhere in the range of 0.4-0.6 to start feeling better about his chances as the bucket of comparable players gets better as PPG increases. Would it be fair to use 0.5 as a rough baseline for what to expect from him in 2020-21?

 

[Bizzare]

Podkolzin's lack of production so far in 2020-21 is definitely concerning. As much as we can point the finger to his lack of ice time, being stuck behind older guys while playing for a coach who supposedly loves his veterans etc. eventually he has to put up numbers if he's to become who we want him to be. At some point talent pulls through - the cream rises to the top in spite of everything else.

Another issue is the lack of context surrounding his stats. We know for guys in the CHL that ideally you want to see them put up well north of 1.0 PPG in their D+2 season for them to maintain good odds of developing into an NHL top 6 forward. But what about in Russia? Take a look at this for instance:


View attachment 373135


Above are the respective PPG for all Russian forwards drafted over the last 15 years who played at least their D+2 season in the RSL/KHL (this is also sorted by D+2 from highest PPG to lowest).

Obviously even a quick glance would tell you that the higher your PPG, the better the chances of you succeeding. Bona fide stars like Malkin, Tarasenko and Kuznetsov all scored well over 0.8 PPG in their D+2 season. Now I don't think anyone here expects Pod to turn out to be that calibre of player, so what about just top 6 forwards in general? That would include guys like Zherdev, Frolov, Buchnevich, Kulemin, Dadonov and Gusev who all range from PPG's of 0.2 to 0.78 with an average of 0.52.

Looking at where Pod is ranked doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. Other than Gusev, the closest comparables in terms of his PPG are all guys who flamed out and never made it. To me, ideally you're looking for him to produce somewhere in the range of 0.4-0.6 to start feeling better about his chances as the bucket of comparable players gets better as PPG increases. Would it be fair to use 0.5 as a rough baseline for what to expect from him in 2020-21?

This spreadsheet is comical, it leaves so much to be desired. I can’t imagine you analyze data often.

 

[vanuck]

This spreadsheet is comical, it leaves so much to be desired. I can’t imagine you analyze data often.

We know production at lower levels is generally a strong predictor of success/failure in the NHL. It's not perfect but there is a very real trend that reflects this, and it's not just for any one league either.

What would you propose as an alternative?

 

[strattonius]

How is a 19 yr old in the KHL with limited ice time supposed to just start producing? Context matters and the retort is 'well he needs to start producing.'

He looks good on the ice and isn't given many opportunities - stop worrying about this prospect's stat sheet so much.

 

[Nucker42]

The beautiful thing about this type of player is that even if he’s not producing he will be an effective player because he’s so responsible....

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I reserve judgement until he’s out of the KHL.

Honestly believe he can be a Landeskog type player in Van’s Top 6.

He’s clearly shown when given the opportunity that he has top notch playmaking skills. Goal scoring might top out in the 20-25 range.

He’s the type of player the Top 6 is currently missing but needs to get out of his current environment for a proper assessment.