Anything is possible, but you are counting on a lot of things to go right for the Canucks to get over the hump.
Not sure I would have gambled a first round pick on it.
We've lost in every lottery we've been in, and two of our top picks haven't worked out the way they should have, and we fell backwards into two prospects that should have been off board with 4 of 5 top ten picks. We have double the odds of another Virtanen or Juolevi in contrast to another Pettersson, and guys like Hughes and Podkolzin aren't always going to fall into our laps.
I'd argue the odds are better we improve on the ice, say into a wild card spot, then for us to win a lottery pick if we don't.
If he's assuming too much goes right in his scenario, us having improved and all that, so are people fetishizing our lost pick (not you per se, you're being pretty rational in your statements) I'd say they are assuming we get another Pettersson with a top ten pick, which is assuming on an equal level IMO.
Tangently related: Shouldn't most Benning haters NOT want him making more picks? Or is he a drafting savant now, in spite of his single digit iq? This never made sense to me. We hate his picks, they almost never pan out, but we should move players for more (or any) picks, so Benning can get more players who (almost definitely with later picks) never see the ice as a Canuck?
The guys still an idiot, but I can't believe this is the action posters are willing to use as a rock to die on. Benning has done so much worse. Making the playoffs once in two years with the additions we've made, and the subtraction to other teams, and Canucks fans are already writing off the season....just....man....we need these W's for reasons other than this draft pick....