Proposal: Unsigned Erik Karlsson to Edmonton

[cgf]

"value of _____ unsigned" doesn't exist in star player trades. You don't make a big enough offer to have the high bid for a star unless you're expecting to sign them. Whether that means asking the other team for permission to talk to the player before ante'ing up your bid, or whatever. If you don't think he's going to sign with you, someone else will out bid you. Even if they have deluded themselves into thinking it's a sure thing he'll re-sign for them.

So EK will be traded for a return commensurate with what a signed-EK would get...minus the value that Ryan takes out of the deal, since you just know Melnyk is going to tank EK's value by stapling Ryan to him.

As for this trade, I think it's fair if EDM gets a third team to take on Ryan & Dorion believes in Pulju. 3 near-bluechip pieces & a sweetener is about what I expect them to get if they insist that they dump Ryan in the trade as well. The question is whether they'd want to go the multiple futures to rebuild with route or seek out more of a 1-for-1 for a young star like Leon who they could market.

 

[t0nedeff]

Nobody is giving that much up for a UFA. Pronger didn't even come close to returning that and he was actually signed for multiple years.

 

[t0nedeff]

Replace the slash in between Klefbom and Larsson's names with a comma.

Oh look a Toronto fan making a dumb post color me surprised.

 

[Hoverhand]

Oh look a Toronto fan making a dumb post color me surprised.

oh look another person thinking theyre going to get a generational defenceman for a #2 dman, a probably top 6 winger, and draft picks.

 

[Mr Positive]

if Karlsson agrees to waive his NMC for here, that is a good indication that he would re-sign (not a guarantee though)

 

[Mr Positive]

No deal without Draisaitl coming back

no one will offer you the equivalent of Draisaitl, so we sure as hell won't

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

oh look another person thinking theyre going to get a generational defenceman for a #2 dman, a probably top 6 winger, and draft picks.

Okay, if it’s that easy an offer to beat, do it.

 

[Ragdoll]

Only way Karlsson comes to Edmonton is if there is a contract extension in place and Drai goes the other way. Can't fit Mcdavid, Drai and Karlsson while building a good team around them. Not happening unless Sens take ALL 3 of take Sekera, Russel and Lucic which they obviously wouldn't.

 

[FightingIrish17]

An unsigned deal for EK actually makes the most sense for Edmonton depending on how confident they feel on re-signing him. If they have some pre-contact with Karlsson to gauge interest in signing (not actually agreeing to terms) they can race other teams looking for a sign and trade and can do so without depleting the team of resources. It's a risk/reward thing for Edmonton but if they have confidence in keeping him, they should absolutely move for him at a lower cost. At full cost (Draisaitl+), it's not worth trading for.

 

[FightingIrish17]

Only way Karlsson comes to Edmonton is if there is a contract extension in place and Drai goes the other way. Can't fit Mcdavid, Drai and Karlsson while building a good team around them. Not happening unless Sens take ALL 3 of take Sekera, Russel and Lucic which they obviously wouldn't.

1) By the time his contract hits in, the cap will have jumped again... could be 84M+ at that point
2) Edmonton would have a whole year to make him fit. There's no need to dump all 3 contracts at once. Sekera probably has value in a trade if he'd waive, and I'm betting Russell has value around the league, 4M x 3 isn't that bad to team not in cap hell.

So, no, Draisaitl does not need to be in any deal. If push comes to shove, RNH has significant trade value and can clear cap space. If there's a Karlsson deal that makes sense for you, take it. You can figure out the cap afterwards (and I'm usually a huge proponent of pre-planning your cap situation way in advance).

 

[FightingIrish17]

if Karlsson agrees to waive his NMC for here, that is a good indication that he would re-sign (not a guarantee though)

This. Oilers fans should feel confident in re-signing him, especially if he waives. Money, McDavid, hockey town, and a Cup contender are all factors Edmonton would have for him. If Edmonton is willing to pay him what he wants, I see no reason why he wouldn't re-sign. He lived in Ottawa so the cold doesn't scare him.

 

[Ragdoll]

1) By the time his contract hits in, the cap will have jumped again... could be 84M+ at that point
2) Edmonton would have a whole year to make him fit. There's no need to dump all 3 contracts at once. Sekera probably has value in a trade if he'd waive, and I'm betting Russell has value around the league, 4M x 3 isn't that bad to team not in cap hell.

So, no, Draisaitl does not need to be in any deal. If push comes to shove, RNH has significant trade value and can clear cap space. If there's a Karlsson deal that makes sense for you, take it. You can figure out the cap afterwards (and I'm usually a huge proponent of pre-planning your cap situation way in advance).

(1) Sure, it could be but who knows.
(2) Maybe not all at once but outside of Sekera assuming he returns to form from last year, none of these players have value around the league. Russel is a good player but an overpaid #5. Lucic still has maybe 2 decent years left, not very attractive to other teams to have that anchor of a contract beyond that. We don't have the pieces to interest teams in taking these contracts. Our prospect pool is weak as it is so dealing draft picks and prospects wouldn't be smart.

Our gm has been doing the whole figure out cap later approach and look where we are at lol. So we should absolutely be looking at future cap considerations in a deal like this where we would be adding most likely a minimum of $10m aav. Chia has already shown that he can't make good trades. Can you imagine when we're strapped for cap space and every GM around the league knows it? He would get f***ing reemed. Nuge and Russel wouldn't cut it because that would just cancel out money at best. And then we'd have to add 2 top 6 left wingers? Yeah not happening.

 

[t0nedeff]

oh look another person thinking theyre going to get a generational defenceman for a #2 dman, a probably top 6 winger, and draft picks.

You're out of your mind dude. Why doesn't Toronto give up Reilly, Gardiner, a potential top 3 pick plus your best f***ing prospect for 1 year of Karlsson. I feel like idiots like you are just predisposed to turn into an idiot whenever you see anything Edmonton related.

 

[Hoverhand]

You're out of your mind dude. Why doesn't Toronto give up Reilly, Gardiner, a potential top 3 pick plus your best ****ing prospect for 1 year of Karlsson. I feel like idiots like you are just predisposed to turn into an idiot whenever you see anything Edmonton related.

Nobody is making a trade for Karlsson unless he's resigning this thread inherently is dumb.

 

[Hoverhand]

"value of _____ unsigned" doesn't exist in star player trades. You don't make a big enough offer to have the high bid for a star unless you're expecting to sign them. Whether that means asking the other team for permission to talk to the player before ante'ing up your bid, or whatever. If you don't think he's going to sign with you, someone else will out bid you. Even if they have deluded themselves into thinking it's a sure thing he'll re-sign for them.

So EK will be traded for a return commensurate with what a signed-EK would get...minus the value that Ryan takes out of the deal, since you just know Melnyk is going to tank EK's value by stapling Ryan to him.

As for this trade, I think it's fair if EDM gets a third team to take on Ryan & Dorion believes in Pulju. 3 near-bluechip pieces & a sweetener is about what I expect them to get if they insist that they dump Ryan in the trade as well. The question is whether they'd want to go the multiple futures to rebuild with route or seek out more of a 1-for-1 for a young star like Leon who they could market.

this guy gets it

 

[BlueBaron]

Oh look a Toronto fan making a dumb post color me surprised.

You felt left out and had to join them?

 

[cgf]

Nobody is giving that much up for a UFA. Pronger didn't even come close to returning that and he was actually signed for multiple years.

Forgive this Avs fan if I've heard this too many times to put any value in this "argument". 'Nobody would give up a huge potential top pairing LHD ++ for a UFA O'Reilly.' 'Nobody would ever give up a young LHD stud +++ for a two-year-rental of Duchene.' etc.

I've heard this song and dance before and it's bullshit with the kind of players that teams only trade for to sign long term. I think aking for Larsson as the NHL piece is too much, but Klefblom after this injury-ravaged season? That package is pretty fair with Klef involved as long as the Oilers get someone to take Ryan's contract from the Sens.

E:
Now the avs shouldn't be making a big move for someone EK's age at this point unless it's to use him as bait for someone who's a better fit for our core age-wise (like Draisaitl); but I think a fair offer for EK would be something like:

Barrie (50% retained) + OTT 1st + Kerfoot / Andrighetto / Compher / Kamenev / Bowers for EK & Ryan; or Timmins + OTT 1st + conditional COL 1st + OTT 3rd + Kerfoot / Andrighetto / Compher / Kamenev / Bowers for EK & Ryan.

And the OP feels like a similar package. OTT 1st > EDM 1st, Barrie > Klefblom, Pulju > Kerfoot + OTT 3rd; or OTT 1st > EDM 1st, Timmins + COL 1st > Klefblom, Pulju > Kerfoot + OTT 3rd. With similar overall value.

 

[t0nedeff]

Forgive this Avs fan if I've heard this too many times to put any value in this "argument". 'Nobody would give up a huge potential top pairing LHD ++ for a UFA O'Reilly.' 'Nobody would ever give up a young LHD stud +++ for a two-year-rental of Duchene.' etc.

I've heard this song and dance before and it's bull**** with the kind of players that teams only trade for to sign long term. I think aking for Larsson as the NHL piece is too much, but Klefblom after this injury-ravaged season? That package is pretty fair with Klef involved as long as the Oilers get someone to take Ryan's contract from the Sens.

E:
Now the avs shouldn't be making a big move for someone EK's age at this point unless it's to use him as bait for someone who's a better fit for our core age-wise (like Draisaitl); but I think a fair offer for EK would be something like:

Barrie (50% retained) + OTT 1st + Kerfoot / Andrighetto / Compher / Kamenev / Bowers for EK & Ryan; or Timmins + OTT 1st + conditional COL 1st + OTT 3rd + Kerfoot / Andrighetto / Compher / Kamenev / Bowers for EK & Ryan.

And the OP feels like a similar package. OTT 1st > EDM 1st, Barrie > Klefblom, Pulju > Kerfoot + OTT 3rd; or OTT 1st > EDM 1st, Timmins + COL 1st > Klefblom, Pulju > Kerfoot + OTT 3rd. With similar overall value.

Thats great and all but you must have missed where buddy said it would take Klefbom and Larsson. Even without that dumb post no one will ever pay that much for a single player.

 

[cgf]

Thats great and all but you must have missed where buddy said it would take Klefbom and Larsson. Even without that dumb post no one will ever pay that much for a single player.

I did indeed. Klef & Larsson is excessive, but the OP is Klefblom/Larsson; which is around what they should get for EK given that Melnyk is anchoring Ryan to him.

 

[yababy]

This. Oilers fans should feel confident in re-signing him, especially if he waives. Money, McDavid, hockey town, and a Cup contender are all factors Edmonton would have for him. If Edmonton is willing to pay him what he wants, I see no reason why he wouldn't re-sign. He lived in Ottawa so the cold doesn't scare him.

Wait until he experiences living in Edmonton for a winter.. he could go "Pronger"

 

[Hoverhand]

I did indeed. Klef & Larsson is excessive, but the OP is Klefblom/Larsson; which is around what they should get for EK given that Melnyk is anchoring Ryan to him.

with the Ryan anchor its 1 or the other.
Without the Ryan anchor, which is what the OP proposed it'd be Larsson +Klef.

Best defenceman since Lidstrom.

 

[McJesusSaves97]

Don't even want to trade for an unsigned Karlsson, the cost would be too great to justify it. I don't trust a regular Chiarelli...a desperate one is terrifying

 

[AvatarAang]

Nobody is giving that much up for a UFA. Pronger didn't even come close to returning that and he was actually signed for multiple years.

yea lets compare trade returns from a player who played like 10 years ago great logic man.

and again, no one is trading for Karlsson without re-signing him on the spot or having an extension in place. so stop it with that UFA nonsense, as if any team is going to give up high end assets for him and then let him walk give me a break.

 

[JarvisFunk]

Is it fair? Yeah. Does it excite me as a sens fan? I mean, not really.

I doubt he gets traded unsigned. Everyone says "sign and trades never happen", and they don't often. But trading of franchise players also never happen. If Edmonton is giving up a lot of assets, they want the guarantee.

I also don't really see a scenario where Karlsson goes to EDM without one of Draisaitl or RNH being the main piece coming back.

JMO, but if Melnyk doesn't want Karlsson because he is going to make too much dough, I cannot see him wanting Draisaitl at 8.5, which isn't bad, but still probably too rich for Ottawa.

I could definitely see a package from Edmonton involving some of the following: RNH, Klefbom, Puljujarvi, 2018 1st, Yamamoto, Nurse, Bear. I don't see us moving Drai tho.

I actually do think we make good trading partners, and could seriously see something happening.

 

[branch]

JMO, but if Melnyk doesn't want Karlsson because he is going to make too much dough, I cannot see him wanting Draisaitl at 8.5, which isn't bad, but still probably too rich for Ottawa.

I could definitely see a package from Edmonton involving some of the following: RNH, Klefbom, Puljujarvi, 2018 1st, Yamamoto, Nurse, Bear. I don't see us moving Drai tho.

I actually do think we make good trading partners, and could seriously see something happening.

What are you basing this on. Melnyk will pay for a good player. He's paying Bobby Ryan at 7.5. Little chance a deal gets done without Draisaitl. It's a deal breaker. How can EDM fans expect to get the best D in the league without someone like Draisaitl coming back. It makes no sense.