Value of: Trouba to Tampa Bay

[DaBolts]

I went by points/60 which is a much better representation given some guys, like Sergachev, produced what they did with vastly less ice time then others.

Sergachev's 5v5 points/60 is 1.23 while Trouba's is 1.15

Sergachev is already among the top defencemen in production at 5v5 given his 13:30 minutes of 5v5 ice time per game compared to Trouba's average of 19:09 minutes of 5v5 ice time per game.

Regardless, Trouba is the one player I would trade Serg for in the interim, especially if we could lock up a long term deal. This would free us up to dump salary in the forward position and bring up some more young snipers.

 

[Daximus]

Regardless, Trouba is the one player I would trade Serg for in the interim, especially if we could lock up a long term deal. This would free us up to dump salary in the forward position and bring up some more young snipers.

Oh yeah 100%. I think the deal is fair on both sides. At the same age they are tracking pretty similar in production and I think Sergachev will run away with it as time goes on and his ice time increases but Trouba is very responsible and makes up for that play in his own end right now. He's really the ideal partner for Hedman.

Of course this is all predicated on Trouba wanting waaaaay to much money to stay in Winnipeg. Ohterwise if we can get fair value on a long term deal we will keep him and look at moving Myers and Perreault in the short term.

 

[lomiller1]

I went by points/60 which is a much better representation given some guys, like Sergachev, produced what they did with vastly less ice time then others.

Sergachev's 5v5 points/60 is 1.23 while Trouba's is 1.15

Trouba's 5v5 P/60 is 1.21 (remember what I said about the error in Corsica's database.) which is good for 4th in the NHL among D-men with 2000+ min played. Sergachev would be top 5 as well if he qualified for min played, but lets see if he keeps that pace up. He was also heavily sheltered (eg think Paul Postma)

 

[Daximus]

Trouba's 5v5 P/60 is 1.21 (remember what I said about the error in Corsica's database.) which is good for 4th in the NHL among D-men with 2000+ min played. Sergachev would be top 5 as well if he qualified for min played, but lets see if he keeps that pace up. He was also heavily sheltered (eg think Paul Postma)

Postma never came anywhere near Sergachev's production, especially as a 19 year old. I think the kid is definitely ready for an increase in ice time and competition. He could really sore on the Jets with the speed of our forwards.

 

[JetsHomer]

We don't have a cap problem if Trouba isn't here and we buyout Callahan. Read the OP before making garbage comments. We would have enough cap space to sign Morrissey, Hellebuyck, Laine and Connor to long term contracts. And even have enough left over to keep one of Myers or Wheeler with still some to spare for overages. We would still have to move Perreault but that is likely happening no matter what we do.

So the Jets ownership is going to spend 6.2m in real dollars to downgrade at D just to get a extremely late first round draft pick in 2 years? And we’re going to have a 2.6m caphit on the book for the next 4?

Cmon man

 

[The Ugly Truth]

Now before anyone gets it twisted, this is purely a hypothetical of Trouba not wanting to sign long term in Winnipeg and the Jets HAVING to deal him. With that being said...

Why it could be good for Tampa:
Trouba's fiancee is going to University in Fort Lauderdale, she just finished the 1st of 8 years in December for her schooling. Florida has no state taxes, Trouba owns a condo in Auberge Beach Residences in Fort Lauderdale, presumably where his fiancee is currently living while she goes to school. So even though Trouba might want $8/year with the Jets on a long term deal. Yzerman has a lot of leverage to likely get him to sign at least a 7 year deal while his finacee finishes up her next 7 years of schooling. Trouba would likely jump at the chance to be closer to her, while playing for a contender.
I'm not sure how Tampa fans and Yzerman see it but Trouba would be a major upgrade on the right side and an ideal partner for Hedman.

Why it would be good for the Jets:
It probably isn't ideal for us but in the case of trading Trouba, Tampa is probably the place that can get the most value out of him. He'd likely sign for much much less than $8mil/season on a long term deal if it meant he'd be close to his fiancee and his condo.

So here is the proposed deal.

To WPG
Sergachev + Callahan (cap dump) + 2019 1st (late)

To TBL
Trouba (extended for 7 or 8 years)

The deal is basically Trouba for Sergachev and we take cap dump Callahan, likely buy him out and get a late 1st for doing so.

Or

To WPG
Foote + 2019 1st (late) + Callahan + One of Stephens/Cirelli/Joseph/Katchouk

To TBL
Trouba (extended for 7 or 8 years)

Here the deal is Trouba for Foote + one of the prospect forwards and Callahan, who is bought out and we take a late 1st for doing so.

Do any of these work for Tampa? Do they need to move more salary? Is the value to high for Trouba or to low? Ideally the Jets would like to add both Sergachev and Foote but I'm not sure what else we would need to give up in order to make that happen.

So you read somewhere that his fiancée has finished her 1st of 8 years of school in WHAT SUBJECT in Fort Lauderdale? And you drop that he has a condo in a specific residence? Why not post his phone number while you're at it intruding on his personal life?

Trouba's main concern is to make as much money as possible in as nice a place as possible during his short athletic career. He's already been screwed over by the Jets management and will have no desire to do them any favors going forward.

Newsflash:
1) Students can transfer
2) Do you think his fiancée will still be going to the same school after completing her fourth year of her current subject? Do you know how her schooling works?

Trading Sergachev makes no sense for Yzerman because he is a good cost-contained defenseman in a team that already has a serious cap issues.

The only likely trade that Yzerman would be willing to make is a bunch of forwards (which the Jets don't need) including Tyler Johnson + Callahan for Trouba.

Or McDonagh 1 for 1 for Trouba signed for 7 or 8 years at $7 million with the understanding that Trouba may have to go back to playing his off side.

 

[Daximus]

So the Jets ownership is going to spend 6.2m in real dollars to downgrade at D just to get a extremely late first round draft pick in 2 years? And we’re going to have a 2.6m caphit on the book for the next 4?

Cmon man

It goes down in the last two years. Plus we cant get their draft pick anyways so we target one of their prospects that can step into the AHL right now.
Or we can pay Trouba $8/year and lose a bunch of players and depth in order to make it happen.

The Jets may be frugale with money but in this league you gotta spend if you want to contend.

 

[Daximus]

So you read somewhere that his fiancée has finished her 1st of 8 years of school in WHAT SUBJECT in Fort Lauderdale? And you drop that he has a condo in a specific residence? Why not post his phone number while you're at it intruding on his personal life?

Trouba's main concern is to make as much money as possible in as nice a place as possible during his short athletic career. He's already been screwed over by the Jets management and will have no desire to do them any favors going forward.

Newsflash:
1) Students can transfer
2) Do you think his fiancée will still be going to the same school after completing her fourth year of her current subject? Do you know how her schooling works?

Trading Sergachev makes no sense for Yzerman because he is a good cost-contained defenseman in a team that already has a serious cap issues.

The only likely trade that Yzerman would be willing to make is a bunch of forwards (which the Jets don't need) including Tyler Johnson + Callahan for Trouba.

Or McDonagh 1 for 1 for Trouba signed for 7 or 8 years at $7 million with the understanding that Trouba may have to go back to playing his off side.

It wasn't hard to figure out. Trouba's wikipedia page has her name and that they just recently got engaged. I googled her name and up pops her twitter account. Where she says she lives in Fort Lauderdale and in December she tweeted out "Officially finished 1 out of 8 years. 1/8th of the Way to being a doctor." One can only reasonably assume then that she is going to school in Fort Lauderdale where she is studying to become a Doctor and has 7 years left of school. Given that Trouba just bought a condo there I'd imagine they want to be there for some time.

If you don't want anyone to know about your personal life, then it shouldn't be pasted all over the internet.

Not everyone transfers to finish schooling. Many stay in the same place. Newsflash "insert snarky comment here".

I'm not even going to comment on the Jets "screwing him over" because it has no basis in reality.

Other than that a lot of Tampa fans see fair value there. So I agree to disagree.

 

[DaBolts]

Oh yeah 100%. I think the deal is fair on both sides. At the same age they are tracking pretty similar in production and I think Sergachev will run away with it as time goes on and his ice time increases but Trouba is very responsible and makes up for that play in his own end right now. He's really the ideal partner for Hedman.

Of course this is all predicated on Trouba wanting waaaaay to much money to stay in Winnipeg. Ohterwise if we can get fair value on a long term deal we will keep him and look at moving Myers and Perreault in the short term.

Actually I would pair Trouba with McDonough. Hedman and Karlsson would be the 1st pairing.

 

[The Gongshow]

Theres no way Trouba comes to Tampa and makes more money than Hedman tho. Trouba wants too much $$$

 

[lomiller1]

Postma never came anywhere near Sergachev's production, especially as a 19 year old. I think the kid is definitely ready for an increase in ice time and competition. He could really sore on the Jets with the speed of our forwards.

I'm not saying they are similar quality players. Postma's 2016/17 was very similar both in production and usage so I was using him as an example you'd be familiar with of a player producing with very sheltered use and why you should take it with a grain of salt.

 

[DaBolts]

Theres no way Trouba comes to Tampa and makes more money than Hedman tho. Trouba wants too much $$$

If he signed for 7, he'd get McDonough money or a 3 year NTC with year 4 + open to renegotiation and no NTC.

 

[Daximus]

Theres no way Trouba comes to Tampa and makes more money than Hedman tho. Trouba wants too much $$$

Tampa has some leverage in negotiation. No state taxes and within a short distance of where Trouba's fiancee is attending school in Fort Lauderdale on top of that Trouba just bougth a condo there where he lives in the off season. Yzerman would likely be free to negotiate an extension with Trouba prior to any deal so I'd imagine he could likely convince Trouba to sign at a much lower rate in order to be not only on a contender but closer to his fiancee and his off season home. I'm of the opinion that Trouba only wants big money to remain in Winnipeg, maybe even as a way to force our hand in trying to move him.

 

[Daximus]

I'm not saying they are similar quality players. Postma's 2016/17 was very similar both in production and usage so I was using him as an example you'd be familiar with of a player producing with very sheltered use and why you should take it with a grain of salt.

It wasn't really that close in production though. Especially when you factor in that Sergachev is already a better player overall then Postma could have ever dreamed of becoming at 19 years old compared to Postma being 28 at the time of that season. There is a lot of reason for optimism with Sergachev.

 

[lomiller1]

Newsflash:
1) Students can transfer
2) Do you think his fiancée will still be going to the same school after completing her fourth year of her current subject? Do you know how her schooling works?

One of the rumored issues with Trouba playing in Canada is that most Canadain medical schools only accept permanent residents of Canada so she would need to be living here full time for a little over 3 years or 60% of the time for 5 years to get into one.

 

[JetsHomer]

It goes down in the last two years. Plus we cant get their draft pick anyways so we target one of their prospects that can step into the AHL right now.
Or we can pay Trouba $8/year and lose a bunch of players and depth in order to make it happen.

The Jets may be frugale with money but in this league you gotta spend if you want to contend.

The Jets are not dishing out 6.2m dollars for a 30th overall pick in 2 years while also downgrading their defense.

 

[Daximus]

One of the rumored issues with Trouba playing in Canada is that most Canadain medical schools only accept permanent residents of Canada so she would need to be living here full time for a little over 3 years or 60% of the time for 5 years to get into one.

That too. It was one of the main reasons rumoured around Trouba wanting out of Winnipeg and holding out. Now he says he wants to stay but he wants big money in order to do so. Basically he is saying if you won't trade me then you are going to pay a premium for me to be here long term.

 

[lomiller1]

It wasn't really that close in production though.

1.23 P/60 vs 1.22 P/60 is pretty similar

 

[Daximus]

The Jets are not dishing out 6.2m dollars for a 30th overall pick in 2 years while also downgrading their defense.

We can't have their pick this year and don't want their pick in 2020. We have to go after one of their prospects. Are you just purposely being obtuse at this point?

 

[Daximus]

1.23 P/60 vs 1.22 P/60 is pretty similar

It's not when you factor in age, one has a very strong chance of improving. The other is done improving.

 

[lomiller1]

Now he says he wants to stay but he wants big money in order to do so. Basically he is saying if you won't trade me then you are going to pay a premium for me to be here long term.

No, he's saying he's the #1 D man on one of the best teams in the NHL and is selling predominately UFA years. Of course he's asking for a lot.

 

[JetsHomer]

We can't have their pick this year and don't want their pick in 2020. We have to go after one of their prospects. Are you just purposely being obtuse at this point?

Lmao the guy that thinks it’s a good idea for the Jets to spend 6.2m dollars to downgrade their defence is calling someone else obtuse

 

[Daximus]

No, he's saying he's the #1 D man on one of the best teams in the NHL and is selling predominately UFA years. Of course he's asking for a lot.

But he's not the 1D, not in minutes or quality of competition. Especially in the playoffs where Buff took on much tougher competition and produced at a much higher rate. I do get that he was shortchanged on his last contract and is looking to make up for it. But $8/year is pretty rich and forces us to make room by dealing other players out. Also puts us in a cap crunch where we have to bridge other guys, which will again cost us more in the long term. If we can't get him on a fair value contract I want no part of it.

 

[lomiller1]

It's not when you factor in age, one has a very strong chance of improving. The other is done improving.

Again, not talking about the quality of player. I'm just pointing out that you can't read too much into one seasons production while facing sheltered competition. FWIW Trouba faced tougher competition and put up higher 5v5 P/60 at the same age and he's developed really well. I'm just cautioning you against reading in to much much from 1 season. Sergachev still has a lot of developing to do to keep pace let alone catch up to Trouba.

 

[Daximus]

Lmao the guy that thinks it’s a good idea for the Jets to spend 6.2m dollars to downgrade their defence is calling someone else obtuse

I don't think it's a downgrade, we are strong on the right side. If anything it's an upgrade to our top 4. Sergachev is a great player and is only going to get better. I think 6.2m to keep around our core rather then just one player is a better idea yes. But I'm thinking about the future here. You are only thinking about right now.