Value of: Trouba to Tampa Bay

[Daximus]

Yikes

Care to elaborate? I'm all for a discussion.

 

[Maukkis]

Yeah that's the real kicker here. Getting rid of that Callahan contract a bit earlier opens up 5.8 mil for them over the next two years, along with Girardi and Coburn coming off the books next summer. That could be enticing enough for Yzerman to make some kind of deal where he can open up some cap space to get deals done with Point, Kucherov and Vasi.

Callahan is gone regardless of what happens to any of their other top defensemen. Guys like Killorn and Johnson could also be dealt, seeing as they have an enormous prospect pool full to the brim with middle 6 potential forwards. As far as their D corps goes, I kind of see Foote as their Stralman replacement down the line - that is if they don't address that need any other way - and as we both know, Sergachev's contract makes him basically invaluable for the time being.

Tampa is a great team. They'll find a way.

 

[Calad]

Tampa cant trade their 2019 first as it is linked to the conditional 2nd which can become that 1st they traded as part of the McD deal

 

[AndreRoy]

I was just thinking Sergachev is likely stuck behind Hedman and McDonaugh now for awhile. Plus if he keeps producing his next deal is likely to be in the neighborhood of what Trouba will sign for.

Serg plays the right side.

 

[lomiller1]

The second one is fine. First one makes no sense for Tampa. Id much rather have Sergachev. He's younger, and better offensively. Not to mention how he still has 2 elc years.

Neither is going to get top powerplay time in Winnipeg, that still goes to Buff and we only use 1 D-man.

At even strength Trouba has been a top 10 D-man in NHL in points/game over the last 2 years and Sergachev was in that same range. The difference is that Trouba is an elite defensive D-man who faced tough min, while Sergachcev was heavily sheltered. There is no possible way he can step into Trouba's role nor do we have anyone else that has a hope of doing so.

 

[Daximus]

Tampa cant trade their 2019 first as it is linked to the conditional 2nd which can become that 1st they traded as part of the McD deal

Thanks for that I wasn't aware. That 1st would likely have to be a prospect then.

 

[AndreRoy]

Serg’s defense took a big step forward in the playoffs and his offense was already quite impressive as a 19yo rookie. He also has the attitude and work ethic that will enable him to reach his potential. He has two years left on his ELC making <$900k, after which he will likely be bridged at ~$5M for a few years before getting his big contract. And despite being left handed he prefers the right side and looked very good there in the playoffs.

In short it just doesn’t make sense for us to trade him, whether it’s for Karlsson or Trouba.

 

[lomiller1]

A 20 year old defencemen that just scored 40 points in 79 games is a maybe? I will concede that a good chunk of his production came on the PP but he put up similar production as Trouba has at ES. If you compare their 20 year old seasons they are tracking at the same production.

Over the last 2 years Trouba has averaged o.37 5v5 PPG. Sergachev had 22 points in 79 games 0.27 5v5 PPG this year.

Plus Sergachev can QB a PP much better than Trouba can.

That's still basically an unknown, and neither is getting much PP time with Buff there.

 

[Daximus]

Neither is going to get top powerplay time in Winnipeg, that still goes to Buff and we only use 1 D-man.

At even strength Trouba has been a top 10 D-man in NHL in points/game over the last 2 years and Sergachev was in that same range. The difference is that Trouba is an elite defensive D-man who faced tough min, while Sergachcev was heavily sheltered. There is no possible way he can step into Trouba's role nor do we have anyone else that has a hope of doing so.

With a minimum threshold of 100 games played over the last 2 seasons Trouba is 34th in points/game. Not sure how far he climbs when we factor in even strength production only though.

 

[Daximus]

Over the last 2 years Trouba has averaged o.37 5v5 PPG. Sergachev had 22 points in 79 games 0.27 5v5 PPG this year.

That's still basically an unknown, and neither is getting much PP time with Buff there.

If you look at their 20 year old seasons they are tracking pretty similar. I've seen Trouba on the PP and it isn't anything special, especially compared to how Sergachev moves the puck. Personally I see a bit more ceiling from Sergachev to be more offensive. He's a better skater and moves the puck better. Trouba plays the shutdown role very well though. But I'd imagine Buff moves up to play with Morrissey, we know they are a great pairing. Sergachev either plays with Myers on the 2nd pairing, or Kulikov plays there and Sergachev plays on the 3rd pairing. Either way I'd replace Myers on PP2 with Sergachev. Which would be awesome to have when Vesalainen is taking one timers from the right side on PP2 in due time with a lefty to feed him the puck who also has a bomb from the point.

 

[Daximus]

Serg’s defense took a big step forward in the playoffs and his offense was already quite impressive as a 19yo rookie. He also has the attitude and work ethic that will enable him to reach his potential. He has two years left on his ELC making <$900k, after which he will likely be bridged at ~$5M for a few years before getting his big contract. And despite being left handed he prefers the right side and looked very good there in the playoffs.

In short it just doesn’t make sense for us to trade him, whether it’s for Karlsson or Trouba.

That's definitely fair. Us taking the Callahan contract can help you guys out while giving you the perfect Hedman partner. That's the only part I can really sell on it haha.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Is this deal done after we trade for Karlsson?

 

[lomiller1]

With a minimum threshold of 100 games played over the last 2 seasons Trouba is 34th in points/game. Not sure how far he climbs when we factor in even strength production only though.

Trouba top 5 in the NHL 5v5 points per game over that time. The only 2 players significantly ahead of him are Burns and Karlsson.

 

[Daximus]

Trouba top 5 in the NHL 5v5 points per game over that time. The only 2 players significantly ahead of him are Burns and Karlsson.

Where can you find that info?

 

[Daximus]

Is this deal done after we trade for Karlsson?

haha I figured it would be instead of trading for Karlsson.

 

[JetsHomer]

Care to elaborate? I'm all for a discussion.

Jets downgrade at D, take on a capdump so we still have cap problems. All for an incredibly late first round pick?

Garbage

 

[Daximus]

Trouba top 5 in the NHL 5v5 points per game over that time. The only 2 players significantly ahead of him are Burns and Karlsson.

From what I can see Burns, Karlsson, Hamilton, Hedman, Klingberg and Josi are all ahead of Trouba in 5v5 P/60. but yes he is top 10. Intersting thing to note is that Sergachev is also ahead of Trouba in 5v5 P/60, though with only 1 season.

 

[DaBolts]

I would trade Serg and Cally for Trouba plus prospects AND other players to Ottawa for Karlsson plus future picks. It would be worth it for two years of terrorizing the NHL.

Then watch HFB melt down with a cigar and scotch in hand.

 

[AndreRoy]

That's definitely fair. Us taking the Callahan contract can help you guys out while giving you the perfect Hedman partner. That's the only part I can really sell on it haha.

The problem is Callahan’s contract is up in two years and his cap space is already allocated to resign the guys we already have. Just wouldn’t work for us capwise.

 

[Daximus]

Jets downgrade at D, take on a capdump so we still have cap problems. All for an incredibly late first round pick?

Garbage

We don't have a cap problem if Trouba isn't here and we buyout Callahan. Read the OP before making garbage comments. We would have enough cap space to sign Morrissey, Hellebuyck, Laine and Connor to long term contracts. And even have enough left over to keep one of Myers or Wheeler with still some to spare for overages. We would still have to move Perreault but that is likely happening no matter what we do.

 

[Daximus]

The problem is Callahan’s contract is up in two years and his cap space is already allocated to resign the guys we already have. Just wouldn’t work for us capwise.

True it just helps in the short term with signing Kucherov. Though a lot would depend on what kind of contract you could get Trouba to sign for.

 

[lomiller1]

Where can you find that info?

Take the number of 5v5 points over the last 2 years and divide by the number of games. If you use Corsica for the point totals keep in mind they shortchanged him 2 points someplace along the way.

 

[Maukkis]

We don't have a cap problem if Trouba isn't here and we buyout Callahan. Read the OP before making garbage comments. We would have enough cap space to sign Morrissey, Hellebuyck, Laine and Connor to long term contracts. And even have enough left over to keep one of Myers or Wheeler with still some to spare for overages. We would still have to move Perreault but that is likely happening no matter what we do.

We are also significantly worse off as a team without Trouba, so there's that.

 

[Daximus]

Take the number of 5v5 points over the last 2 years and divide by the number of games. If you use Corsica for the point totals keep in mind they shortchanged him 2 points someplace along the way.

I went by points/60 which is a much better representation given some guys, like Sergachev, produced what they did with vastly less ice time then others.

Sergachev's 5v5 points/60 is 1.23 while Trouba's is 1.15

Sergachev is already among the top defencemen in production at 5v5 given his 13:30 minutes of 5v5 ice time per game compared to Trouba's average of 19:09 minutes of 5v5 ice time per game.

Quality of competition is definitely a factor but Sergachev is already pacing as a better defencemen production wise at the same age.

 

[Daximus]

We are also significantly worse off as a team without Trouba, so there's that.

Hard to say. I think Morrissey does a lot more heavy lifting on that line then he gets credit for.