Value of: Trouba to Tampa Bay

[Daximus]

Now before anyone gets it twisted, this is purely a hypothetical of Trouba not wanting to sign long term in Winnipeg and the Jets HAVING to deal him. With that being said...

Why it could be good for Tampa:
Trouba's fiancee is going to University in Fort Lauderdale, she just finished the 1st of 8 years in December for her schooling. Florida has no state taxes, Trouba owns a condo in Auberge Beach Residences in Fort Lauderdale, presumably where his fiancee is currently living while she goes to school. So even though Trouba might want $8/year with the Jets on a long term deal. Yzerman has a lot of leverage to likely get him to sign at least a 7 year deal while his finacee finishes up her next 7 years of schooling. Trouba would likely jump at the chance to be closer to her, while playing for a contender.
I'm not sure how Tampa fans and Yzerman see it but Trouba would be a major upgrade on the right side and an ideal partner for Hedman.

Why it would be good for the Jets:
It probably isn't ideal for us but in the case of trading Trouba, Tampa is probably the place that can get the most value out of him. He'd likely sign for much much less than $8mil/season on a long term deal if it meant he'd be close to his fiancee and his condo.

So here is the proposed deal.

To WPG
Sergachev + Callahan (cap dump) + 2019 1st (late)

To TBL
Trouba (extended for 7 or 8 years)

The deal is basically Trouba for Sergachev and we take cap dump Callahan, likely buy him out and get a late 1st for doing so.

Or

To WPG
Foote + 2019 1st (late) + Callahan + One of Stephens/Cirelli/Joseph/Katchouk

To TBL
Trouba (extended for 7 or 8 years)

Here the deal is Trouba for Foote + one of the prospect forwards and Callahan, who is bought out and we take a late 1st for doing so.

Do any of these work for Tampa? Do they need to move more salary? Is the value to high for Trouba or to low? Ideally the Jets would like to add both Sergachev and Foote but I'm not sure what else we would need to give up in order to make that happen.

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[JoeSakic13]

 

[Daximus]

I mean why not right?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

no

also fort Lauderdale is panthers country

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Tampa says no. Serg is projecting to be a top line guy anyhow, take into account his ELC/production and cheaper deal going forward. If I was Stevie Y, I'd say away from Karlsson too.

Adding the cap dump is smart to re-sign Kucherov but adding the 1st probably kills it for them.

Do like the thought behind WPG's pov in the deal but not TBL's.

 

[Critical13]

Tampa says no. Serg is projecting to be a top line guy anyhow, take into account his ELC/production and cheaper deal going forward. If I was Stevie Y, I'd say away from Karlsson too.

Adding the cap dump is smart to re-sign Kucherov but adding the 1st probably kills it for them.

Do like the thought behind WPG's pov in the deal but not TBL's.

Tampa says no to Serg, a cap dump and a 1st for Trouba?

I think Tampa is all over this. Don’t love it for Winnipeg at all. Sergachev has a long, long way to be as good as Trouba. That’s coming from someone who doesn’t like Trouba as much as most.

 

[lomiller1]

Terrible for Winnipeg

 

[Daximus]

Tampa says no. Serg is projecting to be a top line guy anyhow, take into account his ELC/production and cheaper deal going forward. If I was Stevie Y, I'd say away from Karlsson too.

Adding the cap dump is smart to re-sign Kucherov but adding the 1st probably kills it for them.

Do like the thought behind WPG's pov in the deal but not TBL's.

I was just thinking Sergachev is likely stuck behind Hedman and McDonaugh now for awhile. Plus if he keeps producing his next deal is likely to be in the neighborhood of what Trouba will sign for.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Tampa says no to Serg, a cap dump and a 1st for Trouba?

I think Tampa is all over this. Don’t love it for Winnipeg at all. Sergachev has a long, long way to be as good as Trouba. That’s coming from someone who doesn’t like Trouba as much as most.

I see your point but cap wise and assuming Serg keeps progressing, it's smarter to wait and be able to re-sign Kucherov, Point and Vasy.

I was just thinking Sergachev is likely stuck behind Hedman and McDonaugh now for awhile. Plus if he keeps producing his next deal is likely to be in the neighborhood of what Trouba will sign for.

I agree on your premise, the tempting part for Stevie Y is that he has a top line LD in Hedman and Trouba is a RD while Serg is a LD.

 

[Daximus]

Terrible for Winnipeg

Well it's not going to be great to trade him away. This is an area where both sides can likely get the best bang for their buck. Very few teams will take on a Trouba they have to pay $8mil a year for. At least in the case of Tampa and Florida they can easily shave a few million off the top as they have leverage. Though Florida just doesn't have anything I really want.

 

[Daximus]

I see your point but cap wise and assuming Serg keeps progressing, it's smarter to wait and be able to re-sign Kucherov, Point and Vasy.

The tempting part for Stevie Y is that he has a top line LD in Hedman and Trouba is a RD while Serg is a LD.

And he gets to dump the Callahan contract which we can then afford to buy out as we don't have to resign Trouba. The hard part is the value in us doing that for Yzerman. Is it worth a late 1st or would Yzerman rather give up a prospect who is likely much closer to contributing than that late 1st will be?

 

[PetterssonSimp]

So how does this help Winnipeg? They lose the best defenceman in need of a contract to keep the likes of Myers on their defence core but still end up with a major cap problem contract in Callahan when they have zero needs up front that don’t play Centre? I’m not even a Jets fans I feel you’ve asked them to bend over, spread em and to say thank you.

 

[780il]

The second one is fine. First one makes no sense for Tampa. Id much rather have Sergachev. He's younger, and better offensively. Not to mention how he still has 2 elc years.

 

[Daximus]

So how does this help Winnipeg? They lose the best defenceman in need of a contract to keep the likes of Myers on their defence core but still end up with a major cap problem contract in Callahan when they have zero needs up front that don’t play Centre? I’m not even a Jets fans I feel you’ve asked them to bend over, spread em and to say thank you.

It doesn't really help us it's a hypothetical based on Trouba making it to difficult to get a fair value deal done to stay in Winnipeg. Also it's highly debatable that Trouba is our best defencemen. Morrissey and Buff outplayed him this year IMO. But we are much stronger on our right side then our left. Sergachev plugs into our top 4 right away on the left side and we have a much stronger top 4 but slightly weaker overall top 6.

There's also no major cap problem if we don't have to pay Trouba $8mil/season. We can easily then afford to buy out Callahan's contract and although it limits us a bit for the next 4 years it opens us up to being able to sign Morrissey, Hellebuyck, Connor and Laine to long term deals. Plus we still have some left over to potentially keep one of Myers or Wheeler which was looking pretty grim before. Though we still likely have to move Perreault, which was going to happen either way.

 

[Daximus]

The second one is fine. First one makes no sense for Tampa. Id much rather have Sergachev. He's younger, and better offensively. Not to mention how he still has 2 elc years.

He's also a LD stuck behind a #1 he is not likely to surpass in Hedman and a #2 they just signed in McDonagh that will also be hard to surpass in the short term. If they keep Sergachev they are much stronger on their left side by quite a bit. If they add Trouba they replace Girardi in their top 4 with a much better and younger player that can play with Hedman long term. Really the ideal partner for Hedman as well.

 

[Maukkis]

I mean, if we were forced to trade Trouba, I guess we could do a lot worse. That being said, I don't like the thought of Sergachev replacing JT. His rookie year was a great success in terms of offensive production, but boy, was he ever sheltered. This from Bill Comeau:

- TOI%: 17th percentile
- QoC: 29th percentile
- QoT: 84th percentile
- DZ starts: 0th percentile (how do you even)

That's basically the polar opposite of the usage Trouba had, with the exception of QoT. Meanwhile, their offensive production doesn't differ too much at ES:

Trouba: 1.22 P/60
Sergachev: 1.29 P/60

All I'm thinking is, what's going to happen to Sergachev's numbers after taking on more minutes and tougher assignments, and how much worse is it going to get. Moreover, Serg also got to enjoy playing on Tampa's power play, which wouldn't be the case in Winnipeg due to handedness (assuming both Buff and Myers remain in Winnipeg). So, I would be very, very skeptical, but in the end, probably willing to take that risk... I guess.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

And he gets to dump the Callahan contract which we can then afford to buy out as we don't have to resign Trouba. The hard part is the value in us doing that for Yzerman. Is it worth a late 1st or would Yzerman rather give up a prospect who is likely much closer to contributing than that late 1st will be?

Maybe crunch the numbers for Tampa at capfriendly, doing this deal and gauging realistic term/$$ for Trouba/Serg, Point, Kucherov and Vasy. I'd think it'd be more with Trouba than Serg and I think Yzerman will account for this.

Serg may also get a bridge deal to account for the dead weight deals soon to be off the books and then lock him long term. Yzerman did it with Kucherov, why not Serg as well. I think there's a solid foundation for a deal here but just feel Serg isn't that far behind Trouba at all but Tampa is missing a young top 4 RD so ya never know. Just my .02 though.

 

[Snowman]

Pretty terrible for Winnipeg. We'd be giving away Trouba for maybes. It looks like a panic trade to me.

 

[Daximus]

Maybe crunch the numbers for Tampa at capfriendly, doing this deal and gauging realistic term/$$ for Trouba/Serg, Point, Kucherov and Vasy. I'd think it'd be more with Trouba than Serg and I think Yzerman will account for this.

Serg may also get a bridge deal to account for the dead weight deals Tampa has and then lock him long term. Yzerman did it with Kucherov, why not Serg as well. I think there's a solid foundation for a deal here but just feel Serg isn't that far behind Trouba at all but Tampa is missing a young top 4 RD so ya never know. Just my .02 though.

Definitely a fair statement. I think Trouba could be had for really cheap down there. I'm just ball parking here but I'd imagine Yzerman could easily lock him up for something like $6 mil for 7 or 8 years. Maybe even less. He has a ton of leverage on Trouba here. Of course no deal would be done without letting Yzerman discuss an extension before hand.

 

[Daximus]

Pretty terrible for Winnipeg. We'd be giving away Trouba for maybes. It looks like a panic trade to me.

A 20 year old defencemen that just scored 40 points in 79 games is a maybe? I will concede that a good chunk of his production came on the PP but he put up similar production as Trouba has at ES. If you compare their 20 year old seasons they are tracking at the same production. Plus Sergachev can QB a PP much better than Trouba can.

 

[Maukkis]

Pretty terrible for Winnipeg. We'd be giving away Trouba for maybes. It looks like a panic trade to me.

Sergachev
Maybe

Pick one.

 

[Maukkis]

Maybe crunch the numbers for Tampa at capfriendly, doing this deal and gauging realistic term/$$ for Trouba/Serg, Point, Kucherov and Vasy. I'd think it'd be more with Trouba than Serg and I think Yzerman will account for this.

Serg may also get a bridge deal to account for the dead weight deals soon to be off the books and then lock him long term. Yzerman did it with Kucherov, why not Serg as well. I think there's a solid foundation for a deal here but just feel Serg isn't that far behind Trouba at all but Tampa is missing a young top 4 RD so ya never know. Just my .02 though.

I've stopped trying to figure Yzerman out a long time ago, but that third ELC year of Sergachev's sure looks like something he's going to value higher than anything else in life. It begins after Point, Kucherov and co. get their raises, mind you.

 

[jetsforever]

I think it's pretty good from both sides
Yes, Sergachev is young but he's less proven and Tampa can clear some salary with Callahan
Winnipeg loses Trouba but they hopefully get an eventual replacement plus a first which is always good
Tampa gets a top-pairing partner for their elite defenceman

 

[Daximus]

I've stopped trying to figure Yzerman out a long time ago, but that third ELC year of Sergachev's sure looks like something he's going to value higher than anything else in life. It begins after Point, Kucherov and co. get their raises, mind you.

Yeah that's the real kicker here. Getting rid of that Callahan contract a bit earlier opens up 5.8 mil for them over the next two years, along with Girardi and Coburn coming off the books next summer. That could be enticing enough for Yzerman to make some kind of deal where he can open up some cap space to get deals done with Point, Kucherov and Vasi.

 

[koyvoo]

Yikes