Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part V)

[WinterLion]

I really don't know how anyone could look at that list and not be shocked and awed at how bad it's been. No you don't need to compare pick for pick, it's not that complicated, yes there are numerous variables but the results speak for themselves. We had the same scout here yet in those early years before MB and before Lefebvre, look at how much success we had. Don't get caught up trying to look at where they were picked (everyone listed was outside the top 15) and instead look at the seer number of solid picks vs almost NOTHING to show for almost TWICE the amount of time. How the **** can anyone defend that? It boggles my mind.

I've said it so many times but I'll say it again, in no way shape or form am I laying the blame just at the development, or management. Timmins, the players, the NHL coaches, they all share blame in this.

I left out the recent guys that didn't go through the AHL since imo that has been our biggest problem, when the previous GM's did NOT have problems in the AHL. I also wouldn't say Ghetto worked out really well since he's in the KHL and the return we got for him was ****.

I never said it wasn't a bad stretch, it obviously is. Terrible in fact. But there needs to be some context and time is not a valid one considering how many picks were traded away. You would need to rank according to how many picks and where they were compared to the rest of the league... and in that regards it's pretty close to average.... which is obviously not good enough, but also nothing to cray murder about either.

Most players picked outside of the top 15 don't amount to much in any organization. IMO the way to get guys that work out is by accumulating a bunch of picks to increase your chances of hitting...

You've been following these guys for so long I'm surprised you haven't seen this yet... with all the guys we've been excited about over the years that don't really amount to much.... It's easy to think this only happens to our organization but it doesn't. Look at all the former top prospects that wind up trying out for an AHL job with us...

 

[Mrb1p]

Who cares about missing Blais lol.

 

[LaP]

we know he's scouting players since people see him at games, but we don't know what his role is as assistant GM, help MB tie his shoes or spot him on the bench press? He has another assistant in Scott Mellanby so that should give Timmins time to doing a lot of scouting although how much is the question.

In those draft videos that were posted from the last 2 drafts, you see Timmins reaction when MB says he was trading down and Timmins wanted to pick Hillis, he clearly was not happy. I'm sure he scouted Hillis a good bit. At this years draft MB turns to Timmins and says are we picking him and while Timmins says yes he turns to Churla and says you liked him or something when talking about Fairbrother.

So we don't know what's really going on but I would bet everything I own that Timmins is doing a lot of scouting, now how it all plays out between him and Churla I don't have a clue.

At the end of da day (i can't remember who said that) it's a cluster**** of we don't know who the hell is doing what. So the fingers should be pointed toward MB that's the easy solution as he can fire anyone not doing a good job.

 

[barbu]

Who found the talent on Opening NHL Rosters 2019-20?

While some of the blame is on Lefebvre, these results are nothing short of catastrophic.

 

[26Mats]

I think Lehkonen is solid 3rd line player if he is with Danault and they are the defensive line with maybe Armia with them as well. Problem is we have 3 RW in Caufield, Gallagher, and Suzuki and Armia should be the 4th guy. Then there is Ylonen who could surprise.

I doubt we are going to use 1st and 2nd round future picks on more RW players.... unless we can't pass up on a special talent... like Caufield this past draft. I think the focus will be RD. After Weber and Petry, we have Brook, Fleury, and Juulsen. We need more insurance depth there. LD as well but we have a few guys on that side now.

I don't have Tatar with us past his current contract. I rather try to sign Petry to a 2 or 3 year term vs Tatar and Danault is my #3C if we can get him around $5M AAV.

I would consider us to be in a position now to draft the best player available. We have good depth of young quality prospects at every positon. What need to ore of is elite talemt at each position.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I would consider us to be in a position now to draft the best player available. We have good depth of young quality prospects at every positon. What need to ore of is elite talemt at each position.

BPA is not always obvious. If it is (like Caufield in the last draft), you take him. But usually, you have a few guys on the draft board you value the same. That's what I'm saying. BPA is a myth 90% of the time and people use hindsight evaluation. Who was the BPA when we took Kotkaniemi? You can say Kotkaniemi but there are a few others who may have the same value as him when we look back. Don't care what anybody says, we didn't take the obvious BPA with our 3rd pick cause there was no BPA, there was a list of very good talent and take you pick depending on team need. That's what we did and I don't have a problem with it

I feel we will focus on RD's and target them... unless there is someone we can't pass up

 

[26Mats]

BPA is not always obvious. If it is (like Caufield in the last draft), you take him. But usually, you have a few guys on the draft board you value the same. That's what I'm saying. BPA is a myth 90% of the time and people use hindsight evaluation. Who was the BPA when we took Kotkaniemi? You can say Kotkaniemi but there are a few others who may have the same value as him when we look back. Don't care what anybody says, we didn't take the obvious BPA with our 3rd pick cause there was no BPA, there was a list of very good talent and take you pick depending on team need. That's what we did and I don't have a problem with it

I feel we will focus on RD's and target them... unless there is someone we can't pass up

We haven't been taking BPA for some time now and Timmins has acknowledged it very openly.

He said he tried to hid it before this past draft, but they were targeting left d. He said players come into the league much quicker now, so they use the draft to address need. Also, Caufield addresses the need for a goal scorer and help on the pp.

What I was saying is now that all needs have good prospects, but we have a depth of high quality but not necessarily elite talent, our biggest need should be elite talent, not a specific position. This is different than just two years ago, when we had glaring needs at C and LD.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We haven't been taking BPA for some time now and Timmins has acknowledged it very openly.

He said he tried to hid it before this past draft, but they were targeting left d. He said players come into the league much quicker now, so they use the draft to address need. Also, Caufield addresses the need for a goal scorer and help on the pp.

What I was saying is now that all needs have good prospects, but we have a depth of high quality but not necessarily elite talent, our biggest need should be elite talent, not a specific position. This is different than just two years ago, when we had glaring needs at C and LD.

We agree in the end. You target needs but you take the BPA if they stand out. Just like last draft.... We wanted LD's but we took Caufield cause we could not pass that up and then targeted LD's with the next two picks.

Elite talent goes without saying no matter the position. Unless we are in 2013 and we go after size (McCarron) lol. I think the Habs have learned from those mistakes or Bergevin has learned to let Timmins do his job! Timmins is not stupid, he knows what we need today and in the future and he knows BPA. I don't believe he needs Bergevin's help on this

 

[26Mats]

We agree in the end. You target needs but you take the BPA if they stand out. Just like last draft.... We wanted LD's but we took Caufield cause we could not pass that up and then targeted LD's with the next two picks.

Elite talent goes without saying. Unless we are in 2013 and we go after size (McCarron) lol. I think the Habs have learned from those mistakes or Bergevin has learned to let Timmins do his job!

I'm still not totally on board with drafting for need.

For example when Timmins was asked recently what he thought of the Galchenyuk pick, given what Morgan Reilly and Forsberg have done. He said well we were looking to add a center.

imo that's not acceptable. You have to differentiate players for the #3 overall pick. No way he saw all three of these exactly the same. And you have to take the BPA. Otherwise this kind of thing happens. Maybe in later rounds you're not able to differentiate every player and have an exact hierarchy of 300 players, and thus you have pools of equally rated players. But at #3 overall?

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm still not totally on board with drafting for need.

For example when Timmins was asked recently what he thought of the Galchenyuk pick, given what Morgan Reilly and Forsberg have done. He said well we were looking to add a center.

imo that's not acceptable. You have to differentiate players for the #3 overall pick. No way he saw all three of these exactly the same. And you have to take the BPA. Otherwise this kind of thing happens. Maybe in later rounds you're not able to differentiate every player and have an exact hierarchy of 300 players, and thus you have pools of equally rated players. But at #3 overall?

It's a measure of who you feel fits the need and who you are passing up on. Nobody can say who the BPA was with the 3rd pick in 2012. We can say it today though but that's hindsight. So was there a BPA with our 3rd pick in 2012? I say no. But there was with our 15th pick last draft and I believe most people would feel that way

Galchenyuk was not a bad pick and it's way to easy to say Rielly was the BPA looking back today. But rewind yourself to 2012, and I remember there were a few guys we could of taken. I was high on all 3... Galchenyuk, Rielly, Forsberg and was praying we would not take Grigorenko. Sabres likely took BPA at 12 and look how that unfolded?

90% of the time, BPA only exist if you use hindsight evaluation. Who do you consider was the BPA when we took Kotkaniemi? Was it Kotkaniemi, Zadina, Tkachuk, Dobson, Hughes? A bit hard to predict today vs if it was a few years down the road and we look back. Some people said others were BPA as well. BPA is a myth 90% of the time cause people look back and use hindsight evaluation

 

[26Mats]

It's a measure of who you feel fits the need and who you are passing up on. Nobody can say who the BPA was with the 3rd pick in 2012. We can say it today though but that's hindsight. So was there a BPA with our 3rd pick in 2012? I say no. But there was with our 15th pick last draft.

Galchenyuk was not a bad pick and it's way to easy to say Rielly was the BPA looking back today. But rewind yourself to 2012, and I remember there were a few guys we could of taken. I was high on all 3... Galchenyuk, Rielly, Forsberg and was praying we would not take Grigorenko. Sabres likely took BPA at 12 and look how that unfolded?

90% of the time, BPA only exist if you use hindsight evaluation

Whether he says it out loud or not, I'd like him to have taken Galchenyuk because he PROJECTED him to be the BPA.

If he didn't project him to be the BPA but drafted him because he was a center, I don't like that.

Grigorenko was a bad pick because it was a bad projection, not because the Sabres had the philosophy of taking the best player they project that is available - if that was indeed their philosophy.

And McCarron was definitely taken out of need. We were getting pushed around - by Lucic in particular. We drafted him to stand up to Lucic and because we needed a big center. Anyways there wasn't all that much else in that draft that we missed.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Whether he says it out loud or not, I'd like him to have taken Galchenyuk because he PROJECTED him to be the BPA.

If he didn't project him to be the BPA but drafted him because he was a center, I don't like that.

Grigorenko was a bad pick because it was a bad projection, not because the Sabres had the philosophy of taking the best player they project that is available - if that was indeed their philosophy.

And McCarron was definitely taken out of need. We were getting pushed around - by Lucic in particular. We drafted him to stand up to Lucic and because we needed a big center. Anyways there wasn't all that much else in that draft that we missed.

Pretty sure they considered Galchenyuk and Rielly as both BPA talent with the 3rd pick. Are you saying we screwed up cause we went for position of need? I say it was just unlucky in that specific case. Would we have drafted Rielly if our center depth was better? It's possible but then again, we had Beaulieu and Tinordi in our LD system so who knows. Galchenyuk was not the undisputed BPA. Timmins didn't project him to be the BPA, he projected him to be a potential #1C and of course, a very good one! He was very aware that Rielly could be a good pick as well.

I'll ask again... Who is the BPA from Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Zadina, Hughes, Dobson? The answers will vary which tells you there is no BPA. Do you think Timmins doesn't like Tkachuk and the others just as much as Kotkaniemi?

When you have a draft board, you have BPA divided by position. Sometimes you are looking for a LD but a guy like Caufield slips to you. That's drafting BPA.

 

[26Mats]

Pretty sure they considered Galchenyuk and Rielly as both BPA talent with the 3rd pick. Are you saying we screwed up cause we went for position of need? I say it was just unlucky in that specific case. Would we have drafted Rielly if our center depth was better? It's possible but then again, we had Beaulieu and Tinordi in our LD system so who knows. Galchenyuk was not the undisputed BPA. Timmins didn't project him to be the BPA, he projected him to be a potential #1C and of course, a very good one! He was very aware that Rielly could be a good pick as well.

I'll ask again... Who is the BPA from Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk, Zadina, Hughes, Dobson? The answers will vary which tells you there is no BPA. Do you think Timmins doesn't like Tkachuk and the others just as much as Kotkaniemi?

When you have a draft board, you have BPA divided by position. Sometimes you are looking for a LD but a guy like Caufield slips to you. That's drafting BPA.

What I will say is this, almost all the time, if we have a player projected ahead of another player, we should draft them irrespective of positional need.

Now, here are my two exceptions:
1) We have a glaring need at center. It is true that centers are hard and costly to trade for. So even if Timmins didn't have kk ahead of Tkachuck, I'm fine with him taking kk - this time. But it still makes me uncomfortable. It came after multiple failed attempts of using good assets to get a C (Galchenyuk, Drouin, McCarron,DLR etc...)

2) In Timmins case, I don't mind him targeting D's (LD's or RD's) simply because his track record of drafting D is elite. So sometimes it's better to go with your strengths. I'm glad he seems to have done well with KK and Poehling - and that we got Domi and Suzuki via trade. Because before that, his record was an abomination when it came to getting C's.

 

[Habs Halifax]

What I will say is this, almost all the time, if we have a player projected ahead of another player, we should draft them irrespective of positional need.

Now, here are my two exceptions:
1) We have a glaring need at center. It is true that centers are hard and costly to trade for. So even if Timmins didn't have kk ahead of Tkachuck, I'm fine with him taking kk - this time. But it still makes me uncomfortable. It came after multiple failed attempts of using good assets to get a C (Galchenyuk, Drouin, McCarron,DLR etc...)

2) In Timmins case, I don't mind him targeting D's (LD's or RD's) simply because his track record of drafting D is elite. So sometimes it's better to go with your strengths. I'm glad he seems to have done well with KK and Poehling - and that we got Domi and Suzuki via trade. Because before that, his record was an abomination when it came to getting C's.

Yes, we agree. You take the obvious BPA over position of need if that circumstance exist... Like when we took Caufield last year. We really didn't need another RW vs other positions and I have not doubt in my mind that we were targeting a LD. That is what we call drafting BPA cause it's obvious to most. However, the Caufield situation is rare in terms of a talent like that slipping.

Taking Kotkaniemi over Tkachuk, Zadina, Hughes, Dobson, etc... BPA don't exist from that group yet. So why not take Kotkaniemi who is a center which is what we need? It wasn't a massive stretch and he was ranked in the top 10 by many and top 5 by some. The uncomfortable feeling you are talking about is about rankings to start the year vs rankings before the draft. Kotkaniemi was not a top 10 prospect for most of the season.

I just find it funny cause the BPA talk usually happens down the road when people know more. That's not BPA, that's hindsight most of the time.

 

[26Mats]

Yes, we agree. You take the obvious BPA over position of need if that circumstance exist... Like when we took Caufield last year. We really didn't need another RW vs other positions and I have not doubt in my mind that we were targeting a LD. That is what we call drafting BPA cause it's obvious to most. However, the Caufield situation is rare in terms of a talent like that slipping.

Taking Kotkaniemi over Tkachuk, Zadina, Hughes, Dobson, etc... BPA don't exist from that group yet. So why not take Kotkaniemi who is a center which is what we need? It wasn't a massive stretch and he was ranked in the top 10 by many and top 5 by some. The uncomfortable feeling you are talking about is about rankings to start the year vs rankings before the draft. Kotkaniemi was not a top 10 prospect for most of the season.

I just find it funny cause the BPA talk usually happens down the road when people know more. That's not BPA, that's hindsight most of the time.

Yes, we're in agreement.

I'm just a little leary of Timmins and management focusing too much on BPA. I think a big part of the reason our drafting from 2008 to 2014 was so bad was because we used so many 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks on need. Tinordi, DLR, McCarron, Crisp, Lernout were for size. Timmins told us before the Fucale draft he was looking to add a goalie. Was Leblanc drafted to add a French Quebecer? Then we hear he took Galchenyuk because he was looking for a center. Etc... We ended up getting very little talent then.

Things have good since 2015, it seems. Perhaps because Timmins has taken so many D's, his strong suite, and done well with KK and Poehling.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Yes, we're in agreement.

I'm just a little leary of Timmins and management focusing too much on BPA. I think a big part of the reason our drafting from 2008 to 2014 was so bad was because we used so many 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks on need. Tinordi, DLR, McCarron, Crisp, Lernout were for size. Timmins told us before the Fucale draft he was looking to add a goalie. Was Leblanc drafted to add a French Quebecer? Then we hear he took Galchenyuk because he was looking for a center. Etc... We ended up getting very little talent then.

Things have good since 2015, it seems. Perhaps because Timmins has taken so many D's, his strong suite, and done well with KK and Poehling.

Our history of drafting is due to circumstance IMO.

08-11: We just didn't have enough darts to throw at the board. We got really lucky with Gallagher
12-13: We had lots of darts but were they deep drafts? I don't see it when I look at those draft years. A very disappointing two years of drafting based on the darts we had. These two draft years hurt a lot!
14-16: Missing 2nd round picks. It wasn't horrible but nothing to brag about. I'd say below average results.

When did it turn around? When we gave Timmins extra darts to throw at the board and Bergevin let him do his job! Having extra darts to throw at the board allows Timmins to go after several targets in terms of both safe picks and high risk/high reward types. It's a big deal

 

[Readytostart]

good example at forward - although he's hot now. It remains to be seen what he can do over a full season.

what about a dman?

Luke Schenn, Zach Bogosian, Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Dimitri Kulikov, John Moore, Mark Pysyk, Nathan Beaulieu, Joe Morrow, Derek Pouliot, Cody Ceci, Mirco Mueller. That's just 2009-2014. All first-rounders who became bottom-pairing guys.

 

[26Mats]

Luke Schenn, Zach Bogosian, Luca Sbisa, Michael Del Zotto, Dimitri Kulikov, John Moore, Mark Pysyk, Nathan Beaulieu, Joe Morrow, Derek Pouliot, Cody Ceci, Mirco Mueller. That's just 2009-2014. All first-rounders who became bottom-pairing guys.

I consider all those guys busts. Could have easily gotten them at a cheaper price than using a 1st rounder on them.

 

[Merci Saku]

I consider all those guys busts. Could have easily gotten them at a cheaper price than using a 1st rounder on them.

Easily???

Sure thing Mr Pro scout

Hindsight 20/20 , all of them had pro qualities that they couldn’t translate on a daily basis in the NHL

But busts? No way

Considering how hard it is to stay and keep up in the NHL, they did good

 

[26Mats]

Easily???

Sure thing Mr Pro scout

Hindsight 20/20 , all of them had pro qualities that they couldn’t translate on a daily basis in the NHL

But busts? No way

Considering how hard it is to stay and keep up in the NHL, they did good

Yes, I'm using hindsight. They say you can only judge a draft 10 years after it. Well that's what I'm doing. Anybody who used a 1st round pick on any of those players should have either picked someone else or traded the pick for a better NHLer.

For exampke, Beaulieu was just traded for a 6th round pick. We could have had him for a 6th round pick. We could have gotten a lot for the 17th overall pick we used on him. It was a mistake to draft him. It happens. But it was a mistake nevertheless.

For me it's top 4d, top 6 forward, #1 goalie or bust. you're much better off trading the 1st round pick, than using it on a dime a dozen player you can trade a 6th round pick for.

 

[habergeon]

Go on genius, enlighten us.

Not to jump into anyone's discussion but the entry draft is all about projections. None of the players drafted in the 1st round and subsequently listed as busts were reaches when drafted. All were considered 1st round talent, and projected to be NHL'ers.

Looking at the draft in hindsight 10 years later, we get to see that projection play out. Of course things will change. We drafted Beaulieu based on a projection, if we didn't take him at 17 someone was grabbing him shortly thereafter. Some teams probably considered taking him before 17.

I think the point is there is that there is no way in creation that we or anyone else could have taken Beaulieu in the sixth round, as we only have projections and hindsight is 10 years away.

We used the pick at that time to take the best projected player available. Was it the right choice? That's debatable, and that's the danger of hindsight, right choice based on the information available, didn't work out as planned. Every single team goes through that every single draft.

 

[26Mats]

Not to jump into anyone's discussion but the entry draft is all about projections. None of the players drafted in the 1st round and subsequently listed as busts were reaches when drafted. All were considered 1st round talent, and projected to be NHL'ers.

Looking at the draft in hindsight 10 years later, we get to see that projection play out. Of course things will change. We drafted Beaulieu based on a projection, if we didn't take him at 17 someone was grabbing him shortly thereafter. Some teams probably considered taking him before 17.

I think the point is there is that there is no way in creation that we or anyone else could have taken Beaulieu in the sixth round, as we only have projections and hindsight is 10 years away.

We used the pick at that time to take the best projected player available. Was it the right choice? That's debatable, and that's the danger of hindsight, right choice based on the information available, didn't work out as planned. Every single team goes through that every single draft.

No doubt drafting is an inexact science. Many players turn out to be busts. imo, Beaulieu is on of them. It happens.

 

[Habs Halifax]

No doubt drafting is an inexact science. Many players turn out to be busts. imo, Beaulieu is on of them. It happens.

Beaulieu had all the tools you look for.... except for hockey IQ. I knew this pre-draft and never liked the pick. Played on stacked teams in Saint John too. Drafted in the 4th round of the 08 Q draft and then turned into a 1st round NHL pick.

Another LD taken two picks after him... Klefbom. He had better development stats and even played in the SHL pre-draft for 23 games.

Habs can't seem to know when to go to their back yard at the right time for the right player

 

[26Mats]

Beaulieu had all the tools you look for.... except for hockey IQ. I knew this pre-draft and never liked the pick. Played on stacked teams in Saint John too. Drafted in the 4th round of the 08 Q draft and then turned into a 1st round NHL pick.

Another LD taken two picks after him... Klefbom. He had better development stats and even played in the SHL pre-draft for 23 games.

Habs can't seem to know when to go to their back yard at the right time for the right player

Overall Timmins has been a beast with Dmen though. But all scouts make mistakes. Kudos to you for seeing the lack of hockey IQ pre-draft.

I only saw him play for the first time in training camp. His stride was incredible. Subban was calling him superstar during his very first training camp. But you need that hockey IQ.

It will be interesting to see how good Sergachev's defensive hockey IQ is. He seems to have all the tools, including offensive hokcey IQ. But we'll find out if he's another Shattenkirk or Mike Green - quite clueless in his own end.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Overall Timmins has been a beast with Dmen though. But all scouts make mistakes. Kudos to you for seeing the lack of hockey IQ pre-draft.

I only saw him play for the first time in training camp. His stride was incredible. Subban was calling him superstar during his very first training camp. But you need that hockey IQ.

It will be interesting to see how good Sergachev's defensive hockey IQ is. He seems to have all the tools, including offensive hokcey IQ. But we'll find out if he's another Shattenkirk or Mike Green - quite clueless in his own end.

Beaulieu has raw skill and produced in Saint John but on a good team. When I watched him in the Q (pre-draft), I was not blown away. Same as Baron this year with the Mooseheads. I'm laughing at how some think its a deep draft and Baron is ranked 10 (even on Bob's list). We won't know if this is a deep draft until we get to see what these 17 and 18 year olds do this season. Lets look at it come March ish.

When did I know Beaulieu was meh for sure... When I watched him at the WJC and noticed the hesitation in his game and bad puck management. I though he was a decent prospect and would be a good piece for us but a top 4D stud? It was a lot of hope

Sergachev is like Beaulieu in terms of hockey IQ but scores more and has more offensive tools IMO. Lightning are grooming him slowly and they are smart