Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

[26Mats]

I think this are very good comparables and interested to see what people think will be the better group of 2 years of drafting

2012 and 2013 Draft years:
- 11 top 100 picks
- 2012 top 100 picks were 3, 33, 51, 64, 94
- 2013 top 100 picks were 25, 34, 36, 55, 71, 86
- 5 NHL players in Galchenyuk, Hudon, Ghetto, DLR, Lehkonen

2017 and 2018 Draft Years:
- 13 top 100 picks (I included Suzuki... remove him if you wish to make it 12)
- 2017 top 100 picks were: 13, 25, 56, 58, 68, 87
- 2018 top 100 picks were: 3, 35, 38, 56, 66, 71, 97
- How many NHL players? We don't know yet

Including all the picks, this is my player for player comparables....

Galchenyuk vs Kotkaniemi
McCarron vs Poehling
Lehkonen vs Suzuki
Collberg vs Ikonen
Fucale vs Primeau
Hudon vs Ylonen
DLR vs Olofsson
Ghetto, Reway, Thrower, Bozon, Vail, Nystrom vs Brook, Fleury, Romanov, Hillis, Harris, McShane

What 2 year span produces more NHL players and how many top of the line-up vs bottom of the line players?

To ask the question is to give the answer, as you've done in great detail in your post.

Although I wouldn't include Suzuki and I would replace Collberg with Andrighetto.

Maybe bump compare Lehkonen and Ghetto to Brook and Fleury since 2012-13 was deeper at forward and 2017-18 looks so far to be deeper on D.

 

[Habs Halifax]

To ask the question is to give the answer, as you've done in great detail in your post.

I think it's an interesting debate. As you said, I clearly think the last two drafts trump the 2012-2013 drafts but I do think there are some who think it will go down the same and I over value our prospects. Interested to see a discussion on this.

- How many NHL players do we generate in the last two drafts?
- How may top of the line up (Top 4D and Top 6 or top 9 Forwards) do we generate in the last two drafts?
- Do most people think this will trump the similar draft years of 2012-2013?

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

yeah prospect pool is much better now. I really don't think our situation is as dark as it's being made out to be. The cupboards are as good as I've seen them in the last 15 years or so.

 

[sandviper]

I think ceilings are close between the drafts, but the floors are higher with the most recent. Basically, I think we'll have more NHLers from the most recent crop. A lot of this though I will think will have to do with Bouchard.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think ceilings are close between the drafts, but the floors are higher with the most recent. Basically, I think we'll have more NHLers from the most recent crop. A lot of this though I will think will have to do with Bouchard.

I think most will agree. For me, I'm trying to measure how this latest 2 drafts helps fill holes on our current NHL group and how we look as a team in 2 or 3 years from now. If someone called you today and offered a solid return for Weber and then another offer for Price, would you do it? Or do you prefer to wait to see how we look in 2 years?

Imagine if we had what we had for a team 2012 but with the 2017 and 2018 picks instead of the 2012 and 2013 picks? What team do we have today and how competitive would we have been in the last 6 seasons?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Another probable second round steal by Timmins.

Timmins should stay with the Habs at all cost. Admist an overwhelming crowd of dimwits, Timmins is probably one of the rare reasons why this team seems poised for a quick turnaround (2-3 years max).

 

[26Mats]

Another probable second round steal by Timmins.

Timmins should stay with the Habs at all cost. Admist an overwhelming crowd of dimwits, Timmins is probably one of the rare reasons why this team seems poised for a quick turnaround (2-3 years max).

Stephane Waite is another great person we have in management.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

whitesnake triggered

Timmins isn't the reason why the Q has lost it's prestige. He should spend more time pointing his finger at the giants hid away at the top of the Hockey Quebec ivory tower.

 

[montreal]

I think these two draft spans are very good comparables and interested to see what people think will be the better group of 2 years of drafting

The 2012 draft is looking like a weak one, '13 isn't looking much better.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Another probable second round steal by Timmins.

Timmins should stay with the Habs at all cost. Admist an overwhelming crowd of dimwits, Timmins is probably one of the rare reasons why this team seems poised for a quick turnaround (2-3 years max).

Subban and ? It's always seemed like Montreal sucks in the 2nd round.

Brook, Ikonen, Oloffson, Romanov and Ylonen pending.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I honestly believe that this is a nonsense discussion anyways. Draft picks can only be evaluated individually and against the players selected before and after them. Making a list of all the players teams drafted like above and comparing to other teams is so flawed you can't base anything off it. As an example, if Subban were still a Hab would we have drafted high enough to get Sergachev as well? If a team unloaded vets for draft picks, and wound up with 3 1st rounders like Buffalo has next draft, should their pool be compared to a team in the Stanley Cup final that will draft 30th or 31st? The only important thing is what you did with whatever individual pick you had, regardless of where it fell, and looking at the players taken after yours to see if your scouting is doing the job.

Subban was traded after we drafted Serge.

I think what you mean is if we kept McD, would we have been in a position to draft Serge.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Subban and ? It's always seemed like Montreal sucks in the 2nd round.

Brook, Ikonen, Oloffson, Romanov and Ylonen pending.

Look at Lehkonen's draft year, he was also a steal. He's gonna get better. Still see him as top 6 potential.

 

[Legend123]

Subban and ? It's always seemed like Montreal sucks in the 2nd round.

Brook, Ikonen, Oloffson, Romanov and Ylonen pending.

berge traded away too many 2nd rounders to give him a chance at anything. But Lehkonen and DLR look decent e.g. not busts.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Look at Lehkonen's draft year, he was also a steal. He's gonna get better. Still see him as top 6 potential.

True. I somehow skipped over that year.

Should definitely be good.

Though 2 in 10 years doesn't seem good, but that's as a stand alone number.

Timmins' first draft was 2003 ? 15 years 17 2nd rounders. Take the last 2 drafts our, so 12 2nds in 13years. 1 is a confirmed steal, another 1 might be. So, maybe 2. Seems average, but that's not comparing it to other teams, so might be better, or worse.

Thar aside, I've been very impressed with Brook's play.

 

[Knackys]

True. I somehow skipped over that year.

Should definitely be good.

Though 2 in 10 years doesn't seem good, but that's as a stand alone number.

Timmins' first draft was 2003 ? 15 years 17 2nd rounders. Take the last 2 drafts our, so 12 2nds in 13years. 1 is a confirmed steal, another 1 might be. So, maybe 2. Seems average, but that's not comparing it to other teams, so might be better, or worse.

Thar aside, I've been very impressed with Brook's play.

To be fair... Timmins had no 2nd rounders to work with in 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2010, 2009..

 

[jaffy27]

berge traded away too many 2nd rounders to give him a chance at anything. But Lehkonen and DLR look decent e.g. not busts.

Give a chance for the team to contend in the playoffs.......Petry and Vanek

 

[Legend123]

Give a chance for the team to contend in the playoffs.......Petry and Vanek

irrelevant

 

[jaffy27]

irrelevant

It was very relevant........we made it to the ECF, it served its purpose of a deep playoff run

 

[Legend123]

It was very relevant........we made it to the ECF, it served its purpose of a deep playoff run

irrelevant to my discussion. Timmins was deprived of several straight drafts of any 2nd round picks. So he had no chance of picking a subban in the second round in those years.
Follow the discussion instead of just replying.

 

[yianik]

Yes, I already said this. The key is what these NHL players turn into. However, I rather have those top 100 picks we have vs just the average amount or below the average amount. Our probability of generating NHL players and some of them top of the line-up type players is very good.

You want to talk about false hope? Talk about the hope with the prospects from 2008-2011. That was false hope. We had a few 1st round busts and no chance at all cause the probability was very low based on the 100 picks we had. This is a huge black hole and affected us greatly for several yeas after. Not many are willing to admit this cause they hate Bergevin.

12 top 100 picks in the last two drafts is a big deal. Romanov is one of them. There will be surprises and their will be disappointments. However, probability is working in our favor. Think about how many players have the potential to crack the world juniors? When was the last time you saw this potential? Poehling, Brook, Ikonen, Primeau, Kotkaniemi, Romanov, Ylonen, Olofsson, Suzuki. Of course I don't think they all make the tournament for sure but at least half of them will IMO.

Probability does not necessarily work in someone's favour when it comes to drafting.

If you go with a compilation list of the order of picks, and just go by the next guy on the list, then probabilities can kick in. If you add your own subjectivity then you could increase or decrease the probability.

So. If your criteria of what makes a top player is incorrect, you will shoot a lot of blanks. So for example, you pick based on intangibles , points, 2 way play and size being overweight and, and you underweight skills, IQ and speed. If in fact its skills , speed and IQ that are most important, your drafts will be well below average.

I think there have been times when the Habs have used the wrong criteria and that explains why we have had many 1st round busts spanning several decades.

The good news is that I think in 2017 and 2018 we have had a new approach and am hopeful TT has picked well.

 

[Habs Icing]

Another probable second round steal by Timmins.

Timmins should stay with the Habs at all cost. Admist an overwhelming crowd of dimwits, Timmins is probably one of the rare reasons why this team seems poised for a quick turnaround (2-3 years max).

Timmins, Waite, Ducharme, Muller, Bouchard and Roberston. They're not all dimwits. And if you're going to give props to Timmins then maybe Churla needs some kudos.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Timmins, Waite, Ducharme, Muller, Bouchard and Roberston. They're not all dimwits. And if you're going to give props to Timmins then maybe Churla needs some kudos.

You know who I mean, and was aiming more at those who were here before, Ducharme and Bouch are new and their impact is relatively small for now.

 

[jaffy27]

irrelevant to my discussion. Timmins was deprived of several straight drafts of any 2nd round picks. So he had no chance of picking a subban in the second round in those years.
Follow the discussion instead of just replying.

You made it about “giving himself a chance” (Bergevin).....what does that have to do with Timmins??

I replied to your Bergevin comment....he traded those picks to give the team a chance in the playoffs.

 

[Whitesnake]

Lets talk in a few years. I'll remember to bring it up when you are wrong and you can remember to bring it up when I am wrong

Not where I or even you would be wrong here. Yes, the more high picks you get, the better chances of great player you have. Not sure I said otherwise. Thing is, some don't judge Timmins like they judge the others. They applaud Timmins for Gallagher and add him to the conversation of great moves....yet when others do so, we call them "exceptions". Strangely enough, if there is one exception is the year Timmins had in 2007, 3 players that great back to back to back....THAT is an exception and yet....some are STILL adding their names to the fact that Timmins drafted top players. If an evaluation would be done the exact same for everybody, I will bet Timmins wouldn't be that great. Again, I keep mentioning how the last 2 drafts might be redeeming himself. So you can'T come back with that as I have already stated how potentially great those 2 last drafts were.

And watch how the same people who were saying it's all Churla's fault if Timmins doesn't seem to do that great lately, will be the first to omit Churla's name if we end up doing better....

Me, I've always been consequent. Starts and ends with Timmins. Good from the bad.

 

[Legend123]

You made it about “giving himself a chance” (Bergevin).....what does that have to do with Timmins??

I replied to your Bergevin comment....he traded those picks to give the team a chance in the playoffs.

what u talking about? I wrote 'him' which was clearly referencing Timmins as that was the discussion (if only u followed along) and not 'himself'. Dont try to twist other people's words. Its the worst kind of excuse.