Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

[26Mats]

That`s one way to compare and I won`t argue with it. But it`s based on opinion.

The comparisons that interest me remove opinions (and myths).

Stuff gets repeated so much on the net that it gets accepted as fact after a while when often it has little or no real basis.

you can compare players based on numbers. But the only comparison you can make is the numbers, not the players' abilities. Numbers are numbers, ability is ability. At some point you're going to have to make a judgement call that goes beyond numbers when comparing particular players, and especially a group of players that play different positions.

For example, Mike Green puts up great numbers, but he's a disaster in his own end. Marc Edouard Vlasic doesn't put up as big numbers, but he's a much better dman.

 

[Sorinth]

That`s one way to compare and I won`t argue with it. But it`s based on opinion.

The comparisons that interest me remove opinions (and myths).

Stuff gets repeated so much on the net that it gets accepted as fact after a while when often it has little or no real basis.

The biggest myth out there is that numbers don't lie.

 

[Chili]

you can compare players based on numbers. But the only comparison you can make is the numbers, not the players' abilities. Numbers are numbers, ability is ability. At some point you're going to have to make a judgement call that goes beyond numbers when comparing particular players, and especially a group of players that play different positions.

For example, Mike Green puts up great numbers, but he's a disaster in his own end. Marc Edouard Vlasic doesn't put up as big numbers, but he's a much better dman.

If you have some other info on evaluating drafts league wide, please share.

 

[Chili]

The biggest myth out there is that numbers don't lie.

All numbers or the ones that don`t support a specific argument?

 

[Fozz]

It’s always been painfully obvious that Timmins has had success drafting d-men and goalies but has a very poor track record with forwards, especially top-6 forwards.

Hopefully, this years draft changes that somewhat.

 

[26Mats]

If you have some other info on evaluating drafts league wide, please share.

Watching hockey (and not just stat sheets) and making a judgement of which individual players are better and which players as a group are better...

 

[dcyhabs]

Top 6 forwards are hard to draft if you don't have top 5 picks. Galchenyuk is still top scorer or second for his draft year, though it is skewed because they brought him up early. Andrighetto was top 20 or so and that is considering he never really got a shot. Gallagher is fifth in goals from his draft class.

What hurts for the habs are the really bad high picks like Tinordi, Fischer, and possibly McCarron. I doubt anyone would pick those guys knowing what the league looks like today. Beaulieu and Scherbak don't look great statistically either. The habs weren't alone in going after Tinordi and he looked worse after every year in the AHL, both because the league changed and because he kept getting punched in the head; not to mention the great coaching by Lefebvre. Fischer was correctly evaluated by a lot of other teams. McCarron was a mistaken reach.

 

[1909]

Top 6 forwards are hard to draft if you don't have top 5 picks. Galchenyuk is still top scorer or second for his draft year, though it is skewed because they brought him up early. Andrighetto was top 20 or so and that is considering he never really got a shot. Gallagher is fifth in goals from his draft class.

What hurts for the habs are the really bad high picks like Tinordi, Fischer, and possibly McCarron. I doubt anyone would pick those guys knowing what the league looks like today. Beaulieu and Scherbak don't look great statistically either. The habs weren't alone in going after Tinordi and he looked worse after every year in the AHL, both because the league changed and because he kept getting punched in the head; not to mention the great coaching by Lefebvre. Fischer was correctly evaluated by a lot of other teams. McCarron was a mistaken reach.

Tinordi fought too much and his skating was and still is subpar.

 

[DAChampion]

Top 6 forwards are hard to draft if you don't have top 5 picks. Galchenyuk is still top scorer or second for his draft year, though it is skewed because they brought him up early. Andrighetto was top 20 or so and that is considering he never really got a shot. Gallagher is fifth in goals from his draft class.

What hurts for the habs are the really bad high picks like Tinordi, Fischer, and possibly McCarron. I doubt anyone would pick those guys knowing what the league looks like today. Beaulieu and Scherbak don't look great statistically either. The habs weren't alone in going after Tinordi and he looked worse after every year in the AHL, both because the league changed and because he kept getting punched in the head; not to mention the great coaching by Lefebvre. Fischer was correctly evaluated by a lot of other teams. McCarron was a mistaken reach.

Every team has drafted guys like Fischer and Tinordi.

 

[montreal]

Top 6 forwards are hard to draft if you don't have top 5 picks. Galchenyuk is still top scorer or second for his draft year, though it is skewed because they brought him up early. Andrighetto was top 20 or so and that is considering he never really got a shot. Gallagher is fifth in goals from his draft class.

What hurts for the habs are the really bad high picks like Tinordi, Fischer, and possibly McCarron. I doubt anyone would pick those guys knowing what the league looks like today. Beaulieu and Scherbak don't look great statistically either. The habs weren't alone in going after Tinordi and he looked worse after every year in the AHL, both because the league changed and because he kept getting punched in the head; not to mention the great coaching by Lefebvre. Fischer was correctly evaluated by a lot of other teams. McCarron was a mistaken reach.

Fischer would get picked today cause he fits that mold, he was tall, great skater/mobility and could move the puck well. He lacked a physical game and a shot but his main problem was not working hard enough.

agreed on Tinordi/McCarron, those guys would have been great picks 10 years sooner. You just know that had they been picked 10 years soon, Brian Burke would have a hard on for drafting them.

 

[Habs]

What percentage of 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks do you expect to become top 9 forwards or top 4 dmen or number 1 goalies???

I think for 2nd round picks it's less than 25%. For 3rd and 4th round picks it's much, much lower. If we got a player of Hudon's quality every year after the first round, I'd be ecstatic, even if we had 2 second rounders. Missing on those 4 picks isn't good, but getting Hudon in the 5th makes up for it, especially when he nailed the top 3 pick, which was by far most important.

If not for Timmins, we could have been stuck with Griffin Reinhart, Derrick Pouliot,
Slater Koekkoek, or Grigorenko. Look what the scouts before we picked left their teams with: Nail Yakupov and Ryan Murray! Thank god we have Timmins and didn't get stuck with Griffin Reinhardt, a Marc Bergevin type player!

1	1	Edmonton	Nail Yakupov	R	Sarnia Sting [OHL]	350	62	74	136	142	2017-18
1	2	Columbus	Ryan Murray	D	Everett Silvertips [WHL]	264	12	60	72	90	2017-18
1	3	Montreal	Alex Galchenyuk	C	Sarnia Sting [OHL]	418	108	147	255	151	2017-18
1	4	NY Islanders	Griffin Reinhart	D	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]	37	0	2	2	26	2016-17
1	5	Toronto	Morgan Rielly	D	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]	388	31	140	171	89	2017-18
1	6	Anaheim	Hampus Lindholm	D	Rogle BK [Swe-1]	371	42	101	143	178	2017-18
1	7	Minnesota	Mathew Dumba	D	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]	310	44	84	128	163	2017-18
1	8	Pittsburgh	Derrick Pouliot	D	Portland Winterhawks [WHL]	138	5	31	36	49	2017-18
1	9	Winnipeg	Jacob Trouba	D	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	326	34	95	129	239	2017-18
1	10	Tampa Bay	Slater Koekkoek	D	Peterborough Petes [OHL]	76	4	9	13	30	2017-18
1	11	Washington	Filip Forsberg	L	Leksands IF [Swe-1]	331	117	138	255	145	2017-18
1	12	Buffalo	Mikhail Grigorenko	C	Quebec Remparts [QMJHL]	217	22	42	64	30	2016-17
1	13	Dallas	Radek Faksa	C	Kitchener Rangers [OHL]	204	34	44	78	119	2017-18
1	14	Buffalo	Zemgus Girgensons	C	Dubuque Fighting Saints [USHL]	348	44	57	101	103	2017-18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If not for Timmins, we cold have had Forsberg or Trouba though. I mean, it goes both ways.. its not like Alex was the pick of the draft.

 

[26Mats]

If not for Timmins, we cold have had Forsberg or Trouba though. I mean, it goes both ways.. its not like Alex was the pick of the draft.

That remains to be seen.

But as of now, it's not like he took Galchenyuk over a player that is head and shoulders better than him.

 

[dcyhabs]

Galchenyuk probably should not have played in the NHL as young as he did. Because he did, and played more games, he is tied for the highest scorer in his draft though he does not have the best ppg (or the most impact). I don't see that you can knock the pick too much. It was a consensus pick, AG had injury problems, and he might well have developed better with more time in lower leagues. His attitude and his father did not help but then neither did the Montreal coaches. Timmins did his job on this one.

You can knock Fischer, Tinordi, McCarron etc.

 

[Habs]

That remains to be seen.

But as of now, it's not like he took Galchenyuk over a player that is head and shoulders better than him.

True, but how good would Trouba/Sergachev/Weber look on the backend?

 

[Scintillating10]

If not for Timmins, we cold have had Forsberg or Trouba though. I mean, it goes both ways.. its not like Alex was the pick of the draft.

Timmins has made some bad calls lately. Wonder if we changed scouts since his heyday?

 

[Whitesnake]

McDonagh Subban
Sergachev Juulsen
Mete Hainsey
Beaulieu Weber

Price
Halak

is perhaps the best drafted back end amongst active teams. But that won't show up if you rank a draft by points, let alone goals leaving out assists.

Not sure what Hainsey is doing there if the goal is to talk about Timmins. Then Juulsen hasn't been a regular yet...so that's totally way too soon. BUt if you want to include him...how about...Preds?

Weber Suter
Ellis Ekholm
Josi Franson
Fabbro Girard
Jones Bitetto
Klein

Rinne

And if you insist by adding Hainsey, I add Hamhuis. Sorry but that's not even close. Preds are the best drafting and development team on D.

Carolina?

Hanifin Fleury
Pesce Faulk
Slavin Dumoulin
McBain Johnson

Anderson

Might not have the stardom that McDo and Subban have...but they surely have the depth we don't.

 

[Whitesnake]

seems to be Timmins best d picks. After drafting for size so much up until about 2014, I'm hoping he's back to drafting for skill. When Subban was drafted he was only 5'11 and some had concerns about his size. But Timmins said he was a raw talent he had to have.

Strange how it works though.....When Subban was picked he was small but Timmins had confidence in his talent. But then, we want to explain how he f***ed up with Tinordi and McCarron but we are told that BACK IN THE DAYS....we had to go BIG! How's that? In 2007, the style of hockey was SMALL....but back in 2012-2013, it went back to BIG again? A whole lot of bogus. In the meantime, the real best D development and drafting team in Nashville, in the BIG era, went with Ryan Ellis.

 

[Mrb1p]

If not for Timmins, we cold have had Forsberg or Trouba though. I mean, it goes both ways.. its not like Alex was the pick of the draft.

Trouba is not better than Galchenyuk...

 

[Deluded Puck]

I’m not sure Timmins should take all the blame; Our drafting will have hits and misses like all others, but the development of prospects through the farm club under this management has been abysmal; the vast majority of the players that have made a impact on the Roster either went straight in from drafting, or spent some years away from the organisation.

No point in going to get high quality seeds if your greenhouse is going to be operated inefficiently.

 

[26Mats]

Not sure what Hainsey is doing there if the goal is to talk about Timmins. Then Juulsen hasn't been a regular yet...so that's totally way too soon. BUt if you want to include him...how about...Preds?

Weber Suter
Ellis Ekholm
Josi Franson
Fabbro Girard
Jones Bitetto
Klein

Rinne

And if you insist by adding Hainsey, I add Hamhuis. Sorry but that's not even close. Preds are the best drafting and development team on D.

Carolina?

Hanifin Fleury
Pesce Faulk
Slavin Dumoulin
McBain Johnson

Anderson

Might not have the stardom that McDo and Subban have...but they surely have the depth we don't.

So you have Timmins' d core behind Carolina and the Preds, i.e. #3 in the NHL?

(you'd really take that Carolina dcore over a top 3 of Subban, McDonagh, and Sergachev, and then there's Streit, and a bottom pair of Juulsen and Mete - or put Beaulieu and Weber/Emelin until the kids are ready). Or just acquire bottom pairing dmen in the trade or UFA market. They're not that difficult to find. It's top pairing and top 4 dmen that have the real value.

 

[26Mats]

Strange how it works though.....When Subban was picked he was small but Timmins had confidence in his talent. But then, we want to explain how he ****ed up with Tinordi and McCarron but we are told that BACK IN THE DAYS....we had to go BIG! How's that? In 2007, the style of hockey was SMALL....but back in 2012-2013, it went back to BIG again? A whole lot of bogus. In the meantime, the real best D development and drafting team in Nashville, in the BIG era, went with Ryan Ellis.

Yes, although Timmins would take shots at small guys (Subban, Gallagher, Corey Locke) the way the game was played back then made it necessary to draft for size, hence the Tinordi pick, an attempt to get that "big, tough defenseman." We won't have to worry about that anymore. And, Bergevin openly stated that there would be more of an emphasis on size in drafting when he took over in 2012.

 

[HABitual Fan]

McDonagh Subban
Sergachev Juulsen
Mete Hainsey
Beaulieu Weber

Price
Halak

is perhaps the best drafted back end amongst active teams. But that won't show up if you rank a draft by points, let alone goals leaving out assists.

I honestly believe that this is a nonsense discussion anyways. Draft picks can only be evaluated individually and against the players selected before and after them. Making a list of all the players teams drafted like above and comparing to other teams is so flawed you can't base anything off it. As an example, if Subban were still a Hab would we have drafted high enough to get Sergachev as well? If a team unloaded vets for draft picks, and wound up with 3 1st rounders like Buffalo has next draft, should their pool be compared to a team in the Stanley Cup final that will draft 30th or 31st? The only important thing is what you did with whatever individual pick you had, regardless of where it fell, and looking at the players taken after yours to see if your scouting is doing the job.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Trouba is not better than Galchenyuk...

I think a poll of NHL gm's would favor Trouba.

 

[26Mats]

I honestly believe that this is a nonsense discussion anyways. Draft picks can only be evaluated individually and against the players selected before and after them. Making a list of all the players teams drafted like above and comparing to other teams is so flawed you can't base anything off it. As an example, if Subban were still a Hab would we have drafted high enough to get Sergachev as well? If a team unloaded vets for draft picks, and wound up with 3 1st rounders like Buffalo has next draft, should their pool be compared to a team in the Stanley Cup final that will draft 30th or 31st? The only important thing is what you did with whatever individual pick you had, regardless of where it fell, and looking at the players taken after yours to see if your scouting is doing the job.

Fair point. It's important to compare the quality of picks a team had and what other players were available with each pick.

However, I wouldn't call this non-sense, it's more just a starting point.

If you find any evidence that Timmins isn't at least top 5, if not top 2 at drafting dmen from a further analysis, please share. I haven't found any.

And I definitely think Timmins is better at drafting dmen than centers. He's plucked a lot of great dmen, and missed so many great centers, and never drafted a true top six center (although Galchenyuk may change that, and it's possible Grabovski would have been a #2 without the concussions)

 

[Sorinth]

I honestly believe that this is a nonsense discussion anyways. Draft picks can only be evaluated individually and against the players selected before and after them. Making a list of all the players teams drafted like above and comparing to other teams is so flawed you can't base anything off it. As an example, if Subban were still a Hab would we have drafted high enough to get Sergachev as well? If a team unloaded vets for draft picks, and wound up with 3 1st rounders like Buffalo has next draft, should their pool be compared to a team in the Stanley Cup final that will draft 30th or 31st? The only important thing is what you did with whatever individual pick you had, regardless of where it fell, and looking at the players taken after yours to see if your scouting is doing the job.

It's a little unfair to compare the draft selections to the guys drafted before since there was no opportunity to draft them (In that round).