Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

[Andrei79]

Half of those teams have had multiple top 5 and top 10 picks.

From Timmins's beginning up to before the 2016 draft, Habs were top 5 for both least top 5 and top 10 picks. We've had 3 top 10 picks (3,5,10) since Timmins has been on board, before 2016, and it's not like those picks were misses except maybe for AKost, AND the draft we had our highest rank (2012) was a weak one to boot. Our rank average is somewhere around 19th overall, which is in the top 10 for worst rank average in the 2003-2015 period.

When you look at rank average, only a handful of teams among the worst 15 (Habs among 10 worst) have done better than the Habs. Anaheim, Nashville and Philly. 90% of the teams have made major misses in the early rounds too.

Good stuff. I like when people support their opinions with hard evidence.

One thing however is that even if you take out first rounders, mitigating the effects of rank average, you could add more teams to that list. The Blues in recent years, Chicago, Carolina in recent years, Tampa Bay's been incredible since the change of guard (Kucherov, Palat, Point plus signings like Johnson and Gourde), Ottawa... Some of these team I'd take their 2nd rounds and on over our firsts since '08. Timmins' big claim to fame was really that year, with Subban being a major hit.

I guess it depends how you view him. Best in the business ? That's a hard sell. Top 5 ? It'd be interesting to look at data for the better drafting teams and appreciate the results vs the circumstances. Maybe, though 2005 and 2007 were really where we got quality. Top 10? I think that's an easier sell. Likely 2016 to 2018 will be telling, but theyre looking good.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

It's difficult to evaluate Timmins considering that Lefebvre and Therrien spent six years underminong prospects. The next two years should be very illuminating.

We’ve pumped out very little since 2007. I’m glad SL is gone but at a certain point scouting needs to be held accountable. So as you said if we see no results...again...it’s a bad sign. Kotkaniemi shouldn’t count unless he becomes a franchise talent or a bust. It’s expected at 3 you get an nhler.

 

[Forsead]

Talk about boom and busts. The danger I guess. Not fashionable anymore it seems.

It was the dead puck era which was also the Roy, Brodeur and Hasek era. At that time the pricetag of good goalies was much higher hence why they were drafted pretty high.

 

[Habs Icing]

Good stuff. I like when people support their opinions with hard evidence.

One thing however is that even if you take out first rounders, mitigating the effects of rank average, you could add more teams to that list. The Blues in recent years, Chicago, Carolina in recent years, Tampa Bay's been incredible since the change of guard (Kucherov, Palat, Point plus signings like Johnson and Gourde), Ottawa... Some of these team I'd take their 2nd rounds and on over our firsts since '08. Timmins' big claim to fame was really that year, with Subban being a major hit.

I guess it depends how you view him. Best in the business ? That's a hard sell. Top 5 ? It'd be interesting to look at data for the better drafting teams and appreciate the results vs the circumstances. Maybe, though 2005 and 2007 were really where we got quality. Top 10? I think that's an easier sell. Likely 2016 to 2018 will be telling, but theyre looking good.

There's another mitigating factor in Timmins record: Pierre Gauthier. If you look at the black hole in TT's record 2008 to 2012, it corresponds to basically when The Ghost was in charge. Gauthier became assistant GM in the summer of 06 and Gainey's daughter was lost at sea in December of 06. Pierre Gauthier took over all duties about this time. And in the summer of 07 he slashed the pro & amateur scouting to a skeleton staff. I guess he got the idea when he looked at his body coming out of the shower. So after that great draft of 07 Timmins was saddled with drafting and developing duties and without the personnel to do his work. And there was another innovation put into place by The Ghost. I read it in different articles where Gauthier maintained for drafting you basically needed a list of 60 players. It was pointless to go into the draft with 210 player list. In a different article Timmins confirmed that's what he was instructed to do.

I'm positive that hole in Timmins' record is due to Gauthier's meddling.

 

[groovejuice]

Galchenyuk probably should not have played in the NHL as young as he did. Because he did, and played more games, he is tied for the highest scorer in his draft though he does not have the best ppg (or the most impact). I don't see that you can knock the pick too much. It was a consensus pick, AG had injury problems, and he might well have developed better with more time in lower leagues. His attitude and his father did not help but then neither did the Montreal coaches. Timmins did his job on this one.

You can knock Fischer, Tinordi, McCarron etc.

If Galchenyuk could have played another year of Junior, I'd be okay with that. Putting him with Black Hole Lefebvre would not have helped him at all.

 

[montreal]

Look at the behind the scenes vid. Who runs the show? Yeah, we don't see it all...but where does Bergevin sits? How much do you see Churla talk? At the table, Timmins sits beside Bergevin. Yes, Timmins seems unhappy by the trade for sure. Then says thank you to Bergevin for having an additional pick 'cause finally Hillis was still available. So as I keep saying, trades are the GM, picks are the head scout. Clearly with those 2, Timmins job is to make the right pick when it's time to talk. Bergevin's job is to get additional picks if he can hoping they won't lose the players they targeted

well it's not like Timmins is going to say f*** you to MB for trading the pick. I don't know what Grant says but I've never heard anything about how much say Churla has, only that it's very logical that he has a good bit of say and we know MB is the boss so if he says we need to get bigger then that's what's going to happen. I just don't think it's a coincidence that the year they bring in Churla and you have meathead MB and we draft McCarron, DLR and Crisp. Then you have Timmins saying how "they" made a mistake back then and learned from it.

People will believe what they want, I believe that Churla and likely MB had some say in that draft that caused us to f*** it up. Timmins to me has proven he can find talent, perhaps he liked McCarron, DLR and Crisp, but I wonder if Churla and MB weren't there would they have been the pick. He's admitted it was a mistake so clearly there's something there and we've seen how MB likes to bring in fellow grinders, low skill guys.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Good stuff. I like when people support their opinions with hard evidence.

One thing however is that even if you take out first rounders, mitigating the effects of rank average, you could add more teams to that list. The Blues in recent years, Chicago, Carolina in recent years, Tampa Bay's been incredible since the change of guard (Kucherov, Palat, Point plus signings like Johnson and Gourde), Ottawa... Some of these team I'd take their 2nd rounds and on over our firsts since '08. Timmins' big claim to fame was really that year, with Subban being a major hit.

I guess it depends how you view him. Best in the business ? That's a hard sell. Top 5 ? It'd be interesting to look at data for the better drafting teams and appreciate the results vs the circumstances. Maybe, though 2005 and 2007 were really where we got quality. Top 10? I think that's an easier sell. Likely 2016 to 2018 will be telling, but theyre looking good.

It's kinda unfair just taking out small spans for the other teams you mentioned. Streaks are what they are. Great draft years are what they are.

A longitunal span is a lot harder to maintain excellence.

Now, I wrote those stats without the excel sheet at hand. Lost it when my laptop's HD broke down last year. I've redone the whole thing while watching TV last night, but I still have to write down the results vs list of top draftees of each team, so I'll probably post it tomorrow evening as I'm going out tonight and won't have time to finish the whole thing until tomorrow. I've also switched from the draft average to something more representative of each team's handicap (positionally). The draft average position will also be there, but the list will be ordered by what is close to their absolute handicap.

Firstly, to represent their handicap, I used only the first round to reference their position and handicap, as the first round is known to have the overwhelming majority of graduates. Because some teams often have multiple picks or on some years, none at all, I wanted a way to total their chances/probabilities at drafting better players. So what I did is I inversed each pick's position to represent (relative) standing position of each pick. #1 pick has a 30 value while #30 pick has a value of 1. To better represent the relative difference between high picks and lower picks, i've also added a 10 point premium on 1stov, 8 pts 2nd, 6pts 3rd, 4 for 4, 2 for 5 and 1 for each pick until top 10. It is arbitrary but it's the closest I could come up with to differentiate between top 10 picks and the best relative to true percentages known.

Now, I will also include other representative stats like number of 2nd and 3rd round picks, but relative handicap is more about where teams have the most chances at drafting players and that's the 1st round.

One thing I want to mention about your Tampa Bay example is that you can't just consider draftees like Gourde and Point without considering the impact their top draftees (1st overall SS, 2nd overall VH) has had on their production and also the perception you have of their results. Point is, if Habs had those two picks, their own picks like Mete and Lekhonen and whoever else might look a lot better. Whereas the Habs have had a management that has squandered the team's strenghts and left draftees with less support. There's also having the bad luck or good fortune of having high picks in bad or strong drafts.

Also, I'm personally giving a pass for TT in the Bergevin era for multiple reasons Ill rant on later. Drafting seems to have taken a turn for the better ever since TT has been promoted to AGM and I don't believe that's a coincidence.

Later

 

[scrubadam]

Dipietro and Fleury were also picked very high in that period. It was more fashionable to pick a goalie early back then.

Fleury was the first pick of the 2003 draft.

Do you think Price makes it to Boston if Habs didn't pick him? Rask was the next goalie taken in the draft.

Maybe LA goes with Price since they did take Quick in the 2nd round.

 

[DAChampion]

Do you think Price makes it to Boston if Habs didn't pick him? Rask was the next goalie taken in the draft.

Maybe LA goes with Price since they did take Quick in the 2nd round.

I don't know.

 

[scrubadam]

There's another mitigating factor in Timmins record: Pierre Gauthier. If you look at the black hole in TT's record 2008 to 2012, it corresponds to basically when The Ghost was in charge. Gauthier became assistant GM in the summer of 06 and Gainey's daughter was lost at sea in December of 06. Pierre Gauthier took over all duties about this time. And in the summer of 07 he slashed the pro & amateur scouting to a skeleton staff. I guess he got the idea when he looked at his body coming out of the shower. So after that great draft of 07 Timmins was saddled with drafting and developing duties and without the personnel to do his work. And there was another innovation put into place by The Ghost. I read it in different articles where Gauthier maintained for drafting you basically needed a list of 60 players. It was pointless to go into the draft with 210 player list. In a different article Timmins confirmed that's what he was instructed to do.

I'm positive that hole in Timmins' record is due to Gauthier's meddling.

Tinordi draft has PG's hands all over it. Trade up to take that stiff when Kuz is on the board, not like the habs had been searching for a number 1 Center for decades.

 

[bsl]

It does seem, that Timmins right now, may be getting listened to more, by Molson and MB, with all the moves that seem to involve 1st round picks (kids ) coming to us, via trade. Could Timmins be in Molson's ear so to speak?

As for our pro scouts, how Churla is still with the Habs, is beyond.............there have been way too many bad moves by Bergevin, that seemingly would have had Churla's reccomendations all over them....

NHL scouting is massively unnacountable. Scouts should have to provide their draft lists to the nhl immediately after the draft. Be pretty easy to rate them after 5 years or so and then after that.

 

[bsl]

Look, you've had a hard on to get rid of Timmins for awhile now. Basically because you're tired of him and no other reason. When comparisons of Timmins' work with other teams are done they show his work as excellent.You maintain yeah but that's wrong. They're not comparing apples to apples. Well do the comparison and show us. Don't hint that if we compare head scout to head scout he'll come out looking bad. Because he won't. Despite the 2008-2012 years Timmins is still one of the top 5 in the NHL. That's what the comparisons show. You maintain there COULD BE comparisons that won't show that. Good! Bring those comparisons to the table.

Too lazy but would love to see Timmins first round record vs all other scouts with 10 years or more experience. I’m betting bottom ten.

 

[DAChampion]

NHL scouting is massively unnacountable. Scouts should have to provide their draft lists to the nhl immediately after the draft. Be pretty easy to rate them after 5 years or so and then after that.

How do you know that this doesn't happen behimbthe scenes?

 

[bsl]

Tinordi draft has PG's hands all over it. Trade up to take that stiff when Kuz is on the board, not like the habs had been searching for a number 1 Center for decades.

So Timmins gets a pass? Another huge first round miss among many. its always someone else forcing him to draft a stiff. Or ‘development’ issues. This board is so emperor no clothes with Timmins.

 

[montreal]

Do you think Price makes it to Boston if Habs didn't pick him? Rask was the next goalie taken in the draft.

Maybe LA goes with Price since they did take Quick in the 2nd round.

he wouldn't if the rumors were true. I remember that draft day well, the rumor was that the Sens wanted Price at 9th OA.

 

[bsl]

How do you know that this doesn't happen behimbthe scenes?

I doubt it. If I’m a scout on a free ride you think I’m not gonna keep my lists in a safe at home? All they could do is make you look bad as you f*** up in the first round year after year.

 

[26Mats]

So Timmins gets a pass? Another huge first round miss among many. its always someone else forcing him to draft a stiff. Or ‘development’ issues. This board is so emperor no clothes with Timmins.

What do you think the percentage of late 1st rounders accross the league is that become good NHLers? Hint: it's way less than 50% So naturally a lot of 1st rounders are not going to make it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So Timmins gets a pass? Another huge first round miss among many. its always someone else forcing him to draft a stiff. Or ‘development’ issues. This board is so emperor no clothes with Timmins.

I think the issue is that people do the same as with assessing GMs, they concentrate on the mistakes, while all GMs abd scouts make some, i rather look at the average yeild vs their handicaps, and yes when there are too many mistakes you have to balance them too.

Thing is, when I look at Timmins in Ottawa and in the Gainey years, his average is a lot better than in the Bergevin years. It's not a question of finding excuses, but having a better idea of the context, and context is everything.

 

[DAChampion]

I think the issue is that people do the same as with assessing GMs, they concentrate on the mistakes, while all GMs abd scouts make some, i rather look at the average yeild vs their handicaps, and yes when there are too many mistakes you have to balance them too.

Thing is, when I look at Timmins in Ottawa and in the Gainey years, his average is a lot better than in the Bergevin years. It's not a question of finding excuses, but having a better idea of the context, and context is everything.

It might have been easier to draft well twenty years ago, perhaps the competition was lesser back then..

 

[BehindTheTimes]

It might have been easier to draft well twenty years ago, perhaps the competition was lesser back then..

I do think there might be some credence to this. At least relative to his competition. I do think Timmins was the absolute best for a few years, but I think many have gottne better/improved and closed the gap a bit. I kind of agree with Ozy though, just comparing Timmins work to his own body of work shows something seems to have changed during MB era, I think someone might have had his hands in places where they don't belong.

Everyone always praised MB for talent analysis and him being a rink rat like Dudley. I think he may have micro-managed TT a bit too much believing what he heard people say about him (big ego). That, and do we really know who is 100% behind the draft? Is it still TT, the roles/titles are a bit confusing now with SC having the "Director of Amateur Scouting" title.

 

[yianik]

I have basically gotten it to this, TT has to give us 5 top players from the prospects we have, and the young guys up with the team. Including Chucky and Sergachev, that would be 7 in the 7 drafts since.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

McCarron is officially a bust by being put on waivers, he is virtually offered to every team for nothing in return, not even worth a 7th rounder at this point. Timmins visibly did not accurately grasp the speed/skill trend at that point in time.

 

[Whitesnake]

I do think there might be some credence to this. At least relative to his competition. I do think Timmins was the absolute best for a few years, but I think many have gottne better/improved and closed the gap a bit. I kind of agree with Ozy though, just comparing Timmins work to his own body of work shows something seems to have changed during MB era, I think someone might have had his hands in places where they don't belong.

Everyone always praised MB for talent analysis and him being a rink rat like Dudley. I think he may have micro-managed TT a bit too much believing what he heard people say about him (big ego). That, and do we really know who is 100% behind the draft? Is it still TT, the roles/titles are a bit confusing now with SC having the "Director of Amateur Scouting" title.

I don't get this. What changes before and after? Big before skills? McCarron type of pick? What is Tinordi? Connor Crisp type of pick? What is Steve Quailer? Mindboggling type of pick like Nikolas Koberstein? Well...when we drafted Jason Missiaen, that towering 6'7'' goalie, we were told that he was a big long time project. We let him go after 2 years.....What changes really? People keep saying that we should stop taking exceptions and make it the norm.....well the year that everybody takes to prove how great Timmins was BEFORE Bergevin IS an exception. 2007 rarely or never happens. But somehow it has to be the proof that it worked better before Bergevin?

 

[Whitesnake]

We can finally say that McCarron was a bust. You know....when people ask us to wait 5 years before we have an opinion...well that post is for you. He was a bust for now. Can he develop elsewhere. I think we will see. If I'm another team, I give him a chance. But he will NEVER be a top 6 or even top 9 like you are suppose to aim for in a 1st round.

 

[scrubadam]

I don't get this. What changes before and after? Big before skills? McCarron type of pick? What is Tinordi? Connor Crisp type of pick? What is Steve Quailer? Mindboggling type of pick like Nikolas Koberstein? Well...when we drafted Jason Missiaen, that towering 6'7'' goalie, we were told that he was a big long time project. We let him go after 2 years.....What changes really? People keep saying that we should stop taking exceptions and make it the norm.....well the year that everybody takes to prove how great Timmins was BEFORE Bergevin IS an exception. 2007 rarely or never happens. But somehow it has to be the proof that it worked better before Bergevin?

Or maybe TT was lucky that his best years were during the greatest period of drafting in the NHL possibly EVER?

03-08 will go down as a historic period for drafting. It build 3 dynasties in CHI/LA/PENS and led to WASH cup.

Produced multiple generational talents and HOF players.

It was essentially shooting fish in a barrel and I think almost every team managed to get a PK/Price/Max level player during those years.