Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

[Whitesnake]

You want a scout to hit on most of their 1st and 2nd round picks, but can you name 1 single scout scout that has even hit on 50% of their non-lottery 1st round picks and more than 30% of their 2nd round picks?

Timmins has hit on 80% of his lottery picks (Andrei Kostitsyn being his 1 miss, and even Kostitsyn imo could have been a solid 20 goal 50 point 3rd liner if better developed on and off the ice). Price, McDonagh, Galchenyuk, and Sergachev were great picks. Ak wasn't, that's 80%.

Timmins' record on non-lottery 1st rounders is going to be a lot better if (once) Scherbak and Juulsen establish themselves, and Poehling could put his record in elite company.

If Pacioretty, Juulsen, and Scherbak made it. Chipchura, Fischer, Leblanc, Tinordi, and Beaulieu didn't. That's 38%. 44% if Poehling makes it. I haven't compared with other teams in a while but that's damn good if I remember correctly. I also did an analysis of his 2nd rounders and he was in the top tier, if I remember correctly. I think his numbers will improve now that he's not going to be mandated to draft for size.

Who cares about percentage. Let's pretend TBay only great 2nd and 3rd round were Point and Kucherov. What do you prefer? This? Or the great percentage that could be De La Rose, Lehkonen, Mete, Lernout and Hudon? It makes no sense to simply stick with percentages. You need players you can't get through trades and UFA's. Making it is not enough.

 

[Whitesnake]

I don't know if it's been reported but according to EOTP Henrikson is taking a hiatus from hockey to attend university.

The draft was supposed to be over for the Habs at that point, but GM Marc Bergevin traded a seventh-round pick in next year's draft to Winnipeg for a pick in the final round to select 6-4 Swedish defenceman Arvid Henriksson. "We hope he's one of those picks nobody knows about," said Timmins, "and in four years when he comes over people will say 'holy jeez. Look at this guy.'" "Our Swedish scout (Christer Rockstrom) really wanted him. As the draft went on he was saying 'we've got to get this guy.' He was pounding the table. He's a big guy, he skates well."

Trevor Timmins Interview: `16 draft yields blue-chip defender and late gems

Yep another late round gem right there...lol. Sokolov, Somppi even Quenneville made more sense there.

To be honest though, I liked what I saw from him when I saw him. Just liked I liked what I saw when I saw Oskari Korpikari for the first time. But clearly, there wasn't much more than that to those guys. Timmins just need to stop his big evaluations of hidden gems that always stay hidden...

 

[26Mats]

Who cares about percentage. Let's pretend TBay only great 2nd and 3rd round were Point and Kucherov. What do you prefer? This? Or the great percentage that could be De La Rose, Lehkonen, Mete, Lernout and Hudon? It makes no sense to simply stick with percentages. You need players you can't get through trades and UFA's. Making it is not enough.

DLR and Lernout aren't top 9 forwards or top 4 dmen. They aren't included in those percentages.

No doubt percentage is only one state to evaluate a scout.

But in point of fact the post was in response to a poster who said he expects Timmins to hit on MOST of his 2nd and 1st rounders, which is interesting because, that I know of, NO SCOUT IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE HAS HIT ON MOST (I.E. 50%) OF THEIR 2nd ROUNDERS FFS!!!! People need to get a grip on reality.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The draft was supposed to be over for the Habs at that point, but GM Marc Bergevin traded a seventh-round pick in next year's draft to Winnipeg for a pick in the final round to select 6-4 Swedish defenceman Arvid Henriksson. "We hope he's one of those picks nobody knows about," said Timmins, "and in four years when he comes over people will say 'holy jeez. Look at this guy.'" "Our Swedish scout (Christer Rockstrom) really wanted him. As the draft went on he was saying 'we've got to get this guy.' He was pounding the table. He's a big guy, he skates well."

Trevor Timmins Interview: `16 draft yields blue-chip defender and late gems

Yep another late round gem right there...lol. Sokolov, Somppi even Quenneville made more sense there.

To be honest though, I liked what I saw from him when I saw him. Just liked I liked what I saw when I saw Oskari Korpikari for the first time. But clearly, there wasn't much more than that to those guys. Timmins just need to stop his big evaluations of hidden gems that always stay hidden...

It was Rockstroms 'gem'

 

[Domenic]

DLR and Lernout aren't top 9 forwards or top 4 dmen. They aren't included in those percentages.

No doubt percentage is only one state to evaluate a scout.

But in point of fact the post was in response to a poster who said he expects Timmins to hit on MOST of his 2nd and 1st rounders, which is interesting because, that I know of, NO SCOUT IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE HAS HIT ON MOST (I.E. 50%) OF THEIR 2nd ROUNDERS FFS!!!! People need to get a grip on reality.

It’s under 20%.

 

[EXPOS123]

Not many scouting directors last 15 years with the same org.

Just like a great coach or gm, after a while, the message or idealogy becomes stale and a new voice/direction is needed.

We can argue day and night about whether he's done a good job or not, but in business. just like in life, you're constantly looking to improve.

I'm still not sure what Churla's /Timmins' roles are, but If Timmins is still the de facto overseer of the draft, then I truly think his time has reached its expiration date and a new set of eyes needs to take over (preferably by poaching one from another successful org.).

Honestly, what is the risk in doing so, that we find someone worse? If you go after the best, then chances are this won't happen.

 

[montreal]

You want a scout to hit on most of their 1st and 2nd round picks, but can you name 1 single scout scout that has even hit on 50% of their non-lottery 1st round picks and more than 30% of their 2nd round picks?

Timmins has hit on 80% of his lottery picks (Andrei Kostitsyn being his 1 miss, and even Kostitsyn imo could have been a solid 20 goal 50 point 3rd liner if better developed on and off the ice). Price, McDonagh, Galchenyuk, and Sergachev were great picks. Ak wasn't, that's 80%.

Timmins' record on non-lottery 1st rounders is going to be a lot better if (once) Scherbak and Juulsen establish themselves, and Poehling could put his record in elite company.

If Pacioretty, Juulsen, and Scherbak made it. Chipchura, Fischer, Leblanc, Tinordi, and Beaulieu didn't. That's 38%. 44% if Poehling makes it. I haven't compared with other teams in a while but that's damn good if I remember correctly. I also did an analysis of his 2nd rounders and he was in the top tier, if I remember correctly. I think his numbers will improve now that he's not going to be mandated to draft for size.

When I say 2nd round I should have said the top of the 2nd round. If Timmins is picking 33rd or 36th, I do expect him to hit on those picks more then he misses. I would have to look at scouts records throughout the league, I know the average isn't good. But i've been one of Timmins biggest supporters at HF since he was brought in by Andre Savard. Clearly he's been able to find talent but he's made mistakes just like every scout will.

 

[montreal]

The draft was supposed to be over for the Habs at that point, but GM Marc Bergevin traded a seventh-round pick in next year's draft to Winnipeg for a pick in the final round to select 6-4 Swedish defenceman Arvid Henriksson. "We hope he's one of those picks nobody knows about," said Timmins, "and in four years when he comes over people will say 'holy jeez. Look at this guy.'" "Our Swedish scout (Christer Rockstrom) really wanted him. As the draft went on he was saying 'we've got to get this guy.' He was pounding the table. He's a big guy, he skates well."

Trevor Timmins Interview: `16 draft yields blue-chip defender and late gems

Yep another late round gem right there...lol. Sokolov, Somppi even Quenneville made more sense there.

To be honest though, I liked what I saw from him when I saw him. Just liked I liked what I saw when I saw Oskari Korpikari for the first time. But clearly, there wasn't much more than that to those guys. Timmins just need to stop his big evaluations of hidden gems that always stay hidden...

I'm actually surprised they didn't draft Quenneville since they clearly would have seen a lot of him since he was Bradley's teammate and had a big year with 55 pts in 64 games as a 17 year old. But guess it was his lack of size. I don't really look at late round misses, hopefully one of Primeau, Evans, Addison is a hit.

 

[Sorinth]

2012 was a good draft, imo: Timmins nailed the #3 overal pick, and from two 2nds, a 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th, you can really on expect 1 top 6/9 forward - would be better if Hudon were bona fide top 6, but if he ends up being a top 9 forward that puts up 40 - 50 points, it's a great draft.

2013, Timmins had a mandate coming from the new GM to draft for size.

2016 was more good work; when you have a very late 1st rounder, no 2nd, and no 4th, an excellent draft is finding 1 top 6 forward, or a top 4 dman, or a #1 goalie. If Juulsen turns out to be a top 4 dman, Timmins nailed the draft. Currently I project Juulsen as a top 4 dman, so I project Timmins to have nailed the draft. We should know for sure within the next 3 years.

2012 wasn't a good draft. Having 33rd overall is basically the same as a late 1st, it's close to the 25th, 26th, 26th selections our next three 1st round picks were. Just like our 3rd is basically like a 2nd in a year where the team does well.

Striking out with picks 33, 51, 64 really hurts, though Hudon may alleviate some of that pain.

But honestly it never makes sense to look at one draft since there are so few data points. You should always group a bunch of drafts together to see if there are trends. Which is why 2013 is telling, getting a couple 4th liners out of 25, 34, 36 points to a bit of a trend.

That said given Timmins previous track record I would tend to think the problem lies on the development side of things. Especially since there are numerous examples of poor development planning.

 

[26Mats]

2012 wasn't a good draft. Having 33rd overall is basically the same as a late 1st, it's close to the 25th, 26th, 26th selections our next three 1st round picks were. Just like our 3rd is basically like a 2nd in a year where the team does well.

Striking out with picks 33, 51, 64 really hurts, though Hudon may alleviate some of that pain.

But honestly it never makes sense to look at one draft since there are so few data points. You should always group a bunch of drafts together to see if there are trends. Which is why 2013 is telling, getting a couple 4th liners out of 25, 34, 36 points to a bit of a trend.

That said given Timmins previous track record I would tend to think the problem lies on the development side of things. Especially since there are numerous examples of poor development planning.

If you look up the data, you'll see that late 1st round picks do much better than early 2nd round picks. So an early 2nd is not a late 1st.

Having said that, I'd rather hit our early first (unlike the teams around us: #1Yakupov, #2Ryan Murray, #4 Griffin Reinhart than hit from the lesser pool of players available in the late 1st, early 2nd. People take it for granted that Timmins made a great pick at #3, even though #'s 1,2, and 4 didn't manage to.

And yes, Hudon does make up for the 2nd and 3rd round round misses, if he becomes a good 40 to 50 point player. If you get 1 good player from those 3 picks, you're doing better than expected as less than 20% (i.e. 1 in 5) 2nd rounders become good NHLers.

Again people who expect over 50% of these picks to hit are out to lunch.

 

[26Mats]

When I say 2nd round I should have said the top of the 2nd round. If Timmins is picking 33rd or 36th, I do expect him to hit on those picks more then he misses. I would have to look at scouts records throughout the league, I know the average isn't good. But i've been one of Timmins biggest supporters at HF since he was brought in by Andre Savard. Clearly he's been able to find talent but he's made mistakes just like every scout will.

Even if a hypothetical elite of the elite scout would always hit 1 out of every 2 early 2nds, I would still consider that scout elite if they missed on both early 2nds, but then found someone worthy of those selections in the 5th round.

If Hudon becomes a 40 to 50 point guy from the 3rd line, it absolutely does make up for it and makes it, not a good draft, but a great draft. Not all time great, but great. If we found a top 9 forward or top 4 dman every year outside of the 1st round, plus hit our 1st rounder, we'd be perennial contenders.

It's not as easy to hit at #3 as people are taking it for granted. We could be in the same position as the Oilers, Blue Jakcets, and Islanders if we drafted like them. Oh wait, we are where they are/used to be. But that's the point: it's not Timmins' fault, it's Bergevin. In Tampa, his scouts messed up when they took Drouin ahead of Seth Jones. But Yzerman (a good GM) rectified the situation by trading Drouin for Sergachev (not coincidentally to our incompetent GM). Meanwhile our GMs do the opposite: instead of trading out bad picks for good players, they trade our good picks for bad ones: McDonagh for Gomez, Subban for old Weber, Galchenyuk for Domi (not good enough), Sergachev for Drouin, and to top it off can't even resign our star vets (Radulov and Markov)...

 

[Sorinth]

If you look up the data, you'll see that late 1st round picks do much better than early 2nd round picks. So an early 2nd is not a late 1st.

I don't have the stats at hand, but last time I checked the odds of getting a top-6 player in the later part of the 1st round was around 15 or 16%, and for the early second round around 11-12%. So it's a few percentage points either way.

Having said that, I'd rather hit our early first (unlike the teams around us: #1Yakupov, #2Ryan Murray, #4 Griffin Reinhart than hit from the lesser pool of players available in the late 1st, early 2nd. People take it for granted that Timmins made a great pick at #3, even though #'s 1,2, and 4 didn't manage to.

I know others harp on it but I have no problems giving him credit for the top-picks. If you aren't getting these right you have to seriously evaluate where the problem lies, because there are problems.

And yes, Hudon does make up for the 2nd and 3rd round round misses, if he becomes a good 40 to 50 point player. If you get 1 good player from those 3 picks, you're doing better than expected as less than 20% (i.e. 1 in 5) 2nd rounders become good NHLers.

Again people who expect over 50% of these picks to hit are out to lunch.

That extra 2nd makes it tough to say he makes up for it, but I guess that will depend on how Hudon progresses. If he's a 30 point 3rd liner his whole career, then sorry no he doesn't make up for it. If he's more (And personally I think he is) then sure he does. But in the end that just makes the draft average rather then good/bad.

 

[Whitesnake]

DLR and Lernout aren't top 9 forwards or top 4 dmen. They aren't included in those percentages.

No doubt percentage is only one state to evaluate a scout.

But in point of fact the post was in response to a poster who said he expects Timmins to hit on MOST of his 2nd and 1st rounders, which is interesting because, that I know of, NO SCOUT IN THE HISTORY OF THE LEAGUE HAS HIT ON MOST (I.E. 50%) OF THEIR 2nd ROUNDERS FFS!!!! People need to get a grip on reality.

Yep, people who tells you that he has to hit every pick he makes are wrong. No idea why you take your time to talk to those people cause while I'm not that big of a fan anymore....it's never about that for me.

 

[Whitesnake]

It was Rockstroms 'gem'

And Timmins totally drank the kool-aid.

 

[Whitesnake]

I'm actually surprised they didn't draft Quenneville since they clearly would have seen a lot of him since he was Bradley's teammate and had a big year with 55 pts in 64 games as a 17 year old. But guess it was his lack of size. I don't really look at late round misses, hopefully one of Primeau, Evans, Addison is a hit.

My point was not a lot about late-round misses. But Timmins tendancy to overhype his prospects and then we wonder why the fans expect much.....When you pick Henriksson, you talk about a great bet because of his size and skating. Yet, he adds the additional stuff that makes him look bad in the end. BUt yeah, you can't hit everything. Primeau looks awesome.

 

[WeThreeKings]

And Timmins totally drank the kool-aid.

Yeah, it was crippling to trade for that 7th rounder.

 

[26Mats]

I don't have the stats at hand, but last time I checked the odds of getting a top-6 player in the later part of the 1st round was around 15 or 16%, and for the early second round around 11-12%. So it's a few percentage points either way.



I know others harp on it but I have no problems giving him credit for the top-picks. If you aren't getting these right you have to seriously evaluate where the problem lies, because there are problems.



That extra 2nd makes it tough to say he makes up for it, but I guess that will depend on how Hudon progresses. If he's a 30 point 3rd liner his whole career, then sorry no he doesn't make up for it. If he's more (And personally I think he is) then sure he does. But in the end that just makes the draft average rather then good/bad.

Given your comments above, how do you see nailing the top 3 pick and also adding a 40 - 50 point player an average draft?

 

[Whitesnake]

Yeah, it was crippling to trade for that 7th rounder.

Not sure what it has to do with Timmins continually overhyping his prospects no matter where they are chosen, to see them again and again not come close to his own evaluation.

Besides...Ivan Chekovich would look pretty good in Laval. We could have picked him with the pick we sent back to get Henriksson....

 

[The Great Weal]

Besides...Ivan Chekovich would look pretty good in Laval. We could have picked him with the pick we sent back to get Henriksson....

Wasn't Chekhovich picked in another draft?

 

[Sorinth]

Given your comments above, how do you see nailing the top 3 pick and also adding a 40 - 50 point player an average draft?

Because you have a bunch of high picks. So expectations are higher. Ignoring the 3rd overall, ending up with one nhl 2nd line player with all those other picks is pretty average.

 

[Mrb1p]

When I say 2nd round I should have said the top of the 2nd round. If Timmins is picking 33rd or 36th, I do expect him to hit on those picks more then he misses. I would have to look at scouts records throughout the league, I know the average isn't good. But i've been one of Timmins biggest supporters at HF since he was brought in by Andre Savard. Clearly he's been able to find talent but he's made mistakes just like every scout will.

Im pretty sure the top half of the 2nd round is worse than the later half.

 

[26Mats]

Because you have a bunch of high picks. So expectations are higher. Ignoring the 3rd overall, ending up with one nhl 2nd line player with all those other picks is pretty average.

But that's the whole point, how can you just ignore the 3rd overall pick, the most important thing to get right in the whole draft, when analyzing a draft?

See Edmonton: Yakupov, Columbus: Murray, NYI: Griffin Reinhart, for how important it is to use a top 5 pick well.

 

[26Mats]

Because you have a bunch of high picks. So expectations are higher. Ignoring the 3rd overall, ending up with one nhl 2nd line player with all those other picks is pretty average.

Have you taken a look at the 2nd round of that draft?

2	31	Columbus	Oscar Dansk	G	Brynas IF Gavle [SEL]	4	0	0	0	0	2017-18
2	32	Edmonton	Mitch Moroz	L	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]
2	33	Montreal	Sebastian Collberg	R	Frolunda HC [SEL]
2	34	NY Islanders	Ville Pokka	D	Karpat [SM-liiga]
2	35	Toronto	Matt Finn	D	Guelph Storm [OHL]
2	36	Anaheim	Nicolas Kerdiles	L	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	3	0	0	0	0	2017-18
2	37	Nashville	Pontus Aberg	L	Djurgardens IF Stockholm [SEL]	68	5	13	18	14	2017-18
2	38	Carolina	Phil Di Giuseppe	L	U. of Michigan [CCHA]	126	13	24	37	50	2017-18
2	39	Winnipeg	Lukas Sutter	C	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
2	40	Tampa Bay	Dylan Blujus	D	Brampton Battalion [OHL]
2	41	Colorado	Mitchell Heard	C	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]
2	42	Calgary	Patrick Sieloff	D	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	2	2	0	2	2	2017-18
2	43	Dallas	Ludwig Bystrom	D	MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SEL]
2	44	Buffalo	Jake McCabe	D	U. of Wisconsin [WCHA]	215	10	37	47	118	2017-18
2	45	Philadelphia	Anthony Stolarz	G	Corpus Christi IceRays [NAHL]	7	0	0	0	0	2016-17
2	46	Minnesota	Raphael Bussieres	L	Baie-Comeau Drakkar [QMJHL]
2	47	Carolina	Brock McGinn	L	Guelph Storm [OHL]	158	26	24	50	38	2017-18
2	48	Chicago	Dillon Fournier	D	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
2	49	Detroit	Martin Frk	R	Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL]	70	11	14	25	14	2017-18
2	50	Nashville	Colton Sissons	C	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]	190	22	25	47	70	2017-18
2	51	Montreal	Dalton Thrower	D	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
2	52	Pittsburgh	Teddy Blueger	C	Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn. H.S]
2	53	Tampa Bay	Brian Hart	R	Exeter Academy [NH H.S.]
2	54	Dallas	Mike Winther	C	Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
2	55	San Jose	Chris Tierney	C	London Knights [OHL]	284	41	63	104	40	2017-18
2	56	St. Louis	Sam Kurker	R	St. John's Prep [Mass. H.S.]
2	57	Vancouver	Alexandre Mallet	C	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
2	58	Phoenix	Jordan Martinook	L	Vancouver Giants [WHL]	247	26	39	65	103	2017-18
2	59	NY Rangers	Cristoval "Boo" Nieves	C	Kent School [Conn. H.S.]	29	1	8	9	12	2017-18
2	60	New Jersey	Damon Severson	D	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]	279	18	75	93	154	2017-18
2	61	Dallas	Devin Shore	C	Whitby Fury [OJHL]	167	24	41	65	28	2017-18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Wait, do we still blame Timmins for the draft or is Churla the direct responsible? I realize Timmins is still linked to the draft but is Churla or timmins the true head scout?

Whoever it is, it hasn't been impressive for an organization with big money in their pockets.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Have you taken a look at the 2nd round of that draft?

2	31	Columbus	Oscar Dansk	G	Brynas IF Gavle [SEL]	4	0	0	0	0	2017-18
2	32	Edmonton	Mitch Moroz	L	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]
2	33	Montreal	Sebastian Collberg	R	Frolunda HC [SEL]
2	34	NY Islanders	Ville Pokka	D	Karpat [SM-liiga]
2	35	Toronto	Matt Finn	D	Guelph Storm [OHL]
2	36	Anaheim	Nicolas Kerdiles	L	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	3	0	0	0	0	2017-18
2	37	Nashville	Pontus Aberg	L	Djurgardens IF Stockholm [SEL]	68	5	13	18	14	2017-18
2	38	Carolina	Phil Di Giuseppe	L	U. of Michigan [CCHA]	126	13	24	37	50	2017-18
2	39	Winnipeg	Lukas Sutter	C	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
2	40	Tampa Bay	Dylan Blujus	D	Brampton Battalion [OHL]
2	41	Colorado	Mitchell Heard	C	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]
2	42	Calgary	Patrick Sieloff	D	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	2	2	0	2	2	2017-18
2	43	Dallas	Ludwig Bystrom	D	MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SEL]
2	44	Buffalo	Jake McCabe	D	U. of Wisconsin [WCHA]	215	10	37	47	118	2017-18
2	45	Philadelphia	Anthony Stolarz	G	Corpus Christi IceRays [NAHL]	7	0	0	0	0	2016-17
2	46	Minnesota	Raphael Bussieres	L	Baie-Comeau Drakkar [QMJHL]
2	47	Carolina	Brock McGinn	L	Guelph Storm [OHL]	158	26	24	50	38	2017-18
2	48	Chicago	Dillon Fournier	D	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]
2	49	Detroit	Martin Frk	R	Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL]	70	11	14	25	14	2017-18
2	50	Nashville	Colton Sissons	C	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]	190	22	25	47	70	2017-18
2	51	Montreal	Dalton Thrower	D	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]
2	52	Pittsburgh	Teddy Blueger	C	Shattuck St. Mary's [Minn. H.S]
2	53	Tampa Bay	Brian Hart	R	Exeter Academy [NH H.S.]
2	54	Dallas	Mike Winther	C	Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
2	55	San Jose	Chris Tierney	C	London Knights [OHL]	284	41	63	104	40	2017-18
2	56	St. Louis	Sam Kurker	R	St. John's Prep [Mass. H.S.]
2	57	Vancouver	Alexandre Mallet	C	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]
2	58	Phoenix	Jordan Martinook	L	Vancouver Giants [WHL]	247	26	39	65	103	2017-18
2	59	NY Rangers	Cristoval "Boo" Nieves	C	Kent School [Conn. H.S.]	29	1	8	9	12	2017-18
2	60	New Jersey	Damon Severson	D	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]	279	18	75	93	154	2017-18
2	61	Dallas	Devin Shore	C	Whitby Fury [OJHL]	167	24	41	65	28	2017-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

People will see what they want to see know matter how much evidence you beat them over the head with.