Training camp 2023-2024

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Just thinking out loud:

Chuck - Norris - Bath
Tara - Stu - Giroux
Kubalik - Pinto - Bailey
Greig - Kastelic - Joseph
Kelly, MacEwen, etc.

That's some serious depth, but in reality we probably can't fit them all under the cap.

- Greig might start in the AHL if we can fit both Pinto and Joseph (say if we trade Branny), but just to give Greig some more meaningful minutes. Replace with Kelly or MacEwen.

- Greig might replace Pinto in the above if Pinto holds out.

- Kellor or MacEwen might replace Joseph if we have to trade him or send him down to make room under the cap.

Bailey is brought in without a doubt to replace one of Joseph or Kubalik.

That roster is completely over the cap.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Bailey is brought in without a doubt to replace one of Joseph or Kubalik.

That roster is completely over the cap.

"cap schmap"

Pierre Dorion

 

[Xspyrit]

Joseph Out. Pinto and Bailey in?

Joseph >>>> Bailey

Paying a valuable asset to move Joseph contract (signed just 1 year ago) to end overpaying Pinto (instead of signing him to a 1 year deal) and sign Bailey would be extremely stupid. That said, just more of the same as it has been under Dorion with Colin White, Matt Murray, Del Zotto, Dadonov, Zaitsev, Condon, Burrows, Boedker, Anisimov, etc... acquire/sign players so they either end on the dead cap or we have to squander assets to get rid of them (Dadonov the exception). Yes it "happens to every team" but we are on another level lol. And that is because our pro scouting has been terrible for a while

I'll leave that below as an hint as to what would be the smart thing to do :

 

[Flamingo]

Joseph >>>> Bailey

Paying a valuable asset to move Joseph contract (signed just 1 year ago) to end overpaying Pinto (instead of signing him to a 1 year deal) and sign Bailey would be extremely stupid. That said, just more of the same as it has been under Dorion with Colin White, Matt Murray, Del Zotto, Dadonov, Zaitsev, Condon, Burrows, Boedker, Anisimov, etc... acquire/sign players so they either end on the dead cap or we have to squander assets to get rid of them. Yes it "happens to every team" but we are on another level lol. And that is because our pro scouting has been terrible for a while

I'll leave that below as an hint as to what would be the smart thing to do :

One would think Sean Tierney was consulted.

 

[Xspyrit]

Just thinking out loud:

Chuck - Norris - Bath
Tara - Stu - Giroux
Kubalik - Pinto - Bailey
Greig - Kastelic - Joseph
Kelly, MacEwen, etc.

That's some serious depth, but in reality we probably can't fit them all under the cap.

- Greig might start in the AHL if we can fit both Pinto and Joseph (say if we trade Branny), but just to give Greig some more meaningful minutes. Replace with Kelly or MacEwen.

- Greig might replace Pinto in the above if Pinto holds out.

- Kellor or MacEwen might replace Joseph if we have to trade him or send him down to make room under the cap.

Interesting idea to reunite the Chuck Norris' bath line, that line would be great all around, Norris is the kind of center that makes his wingers better defensively, he is that good

Giroux and Stutzle should be able to take care of Tarasenko both offensively and defensively, Vlad needs to produce to not be a detriment, facing secondary defense could actually be great. I mean, for the opposition, which line do you want to face lol?

Switch Tarasenko and Giroux side but this is the new Top-6 I want.

The bottom-6 though, I would trade Kubalik. Not because I hate him but we can't afford him. We need to sign Pinto and AT LEAST make an effort to not lose both Sokolov and Thomson on waivers... Greig is ready, Greig is already excellent both ways, IMO would be the best ES player in that bottom-6

Greig - Pinto - Joseph
Bailey - Kastelic - MacEwen
Sokolov

That 3rd line has a bit of everything and could actually be a lot harder to play against than people think. Joseph needs to bounce back to 2021-22 form (which I think he will from everything I hear about him this summer, he seems dialed in) and Pinto needs to take a step defensively. Greig is so smart with a high end attention to details that he will make them both better

For the 4th line, ideally Smejkal can translate some of his game to the NHL, would make a great bottom-6 winger (but would have to wait for injury?). Bailey brings experience and Kastelic is solid defensively, physical and elite on faceoffs. MacEwen is there. Sokolov should be the 13th guy, Kelly to the AHL, bring some all around play there with a nice NHL salary

I have nothing against Kubalik and would like to have the luxury to have him but the 5 M$ in dead cap doesn't allow it. He's a bit redundant with Tarasenko signing and would struggle to get PP time (IMO 12 guys should be ahead for PP time), which will affect his production and leave Sens fans wanting more. And since it would cost to move Joseph NOW, it's much smarter to get a pick back for Kubalik instead. Joseph is much better defensively (with elite PK metrics) and produces the same at ES. No brainer to trade Kubalik instead of Joseph

Edit : I am not opposed to trade Brannstrom but the only way I'd satisfied is for a similar young 2-way forward. For example, on of my targets last season would have been someone like Eeli Tolvanen, if I only knew he was available... but he ended up on waivers. No idea why we didn't get him.

One would think Sean Tierney was consulted.

He's pretty new on the job with the Sens though but gotta hope so. Maybe they think Bailey could do fine in a reduced role (4th line max) but I hope everyone is aware that he his now far from what he was before

 

[NyQuil]

Kubalik is the first time we've had some scoring depth in the bottom six for quite some time.

Sure, we have a set top six, but one injury and we're back to last year's top six with one of Pinto or Grieg playing there.

Personally I'd rather move Joseph (and I get it would cost something) because I think he's more redundant than Kubalik.

 

[Xspyrit]

Pretty meh until they get a top flight centre, and their potential forward group isn't all that impressive in general either. Not saying Suzuki is bad, but he's kind of like Turris; an ideal 1B centre. Decent defensive group, though a lot is riding on Hutson becoming a #1D, and he might never be defensively responsible enough to go about that role effectively beyond simply being a great offensive threat.

Yeah but you have to keep in mind that they only had 2 drafts in their current rebuild, and since these drafts are very recent, many of these rookies are still early in their development. The hope for us, their direct rival, is absolutely that some of them don't develop as good as expected but as of now, Hutson, Reinbacher, Mailloux and Roy are very high end prospects. But the problem is that Slafkovsky, Guhle and Barron are also still prospects

Then after all this, there is a bunch of quality prospects who could end up in something good (Engstrom, Beck, Harvey-Pinard, Kidney, Mesar, Farell, Dobes/Fowler, etc)

Their current pool is a lot better than ours, we have Greig and Kleven to maybe match up Roy and Mailloux but we have nothing to answer their other top prospects. Sure we are farther in our rebuild and the hope is that they never find the elite talent that we have (Stutzle, Sanderson, Chabot and Tkachuk) but for the rest they already match us more than enough

Suzuki vs Norris : I personally like Norris better for defense and goal scoring but Suzuki is by far the better playmaker and if you do a poll on the main boards, people will easily take him over Norris. Plus there's injury concerns with Norris while Suzuki is already an iron man.

Caufield vs Batherson : Goal scorer vs playmaker but Caufield is going to score 40+ goals per 82 games for a while. Bath needs to get back to pre-Dell injury to match him offensively. I believe Batherson can be more usefull overall though but not if he plays like last season. Everyone outside of here would also take Caufield

Dach/Newhook vs Greig/Pinto : that will be interesting to keep track, 4 intriguing young players, hard to say who will better overall but I have faith in our guys

Matheson vs Chychrun : Matheson is a bit older but gotta hope his progression from the last 2 years ends and he even regresses because he was really good last season with the Habs. Also gotta hope that Chychrun stops being so injury-prone

Harris vs Brannstrom : Brannstrom is better at the moment but Harris is one year younger and already has some good results. They are similar in many ways actually

Kovacevic vs Zub : JK is an analytical darling, hopefully his game doesn't translate in a bigger role. Advantage Zub for now who has proven he can face top competition on a regular basis

So it really comes down to them not being able to match Stutzle, Sanderson, Chabot and Tkachuk but in only 2 drafts and a firesale they already have a lot of potential. Keep in mind that we had 6 rebuild drafts and that we started with Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Pageau, Brassard, Dzingel, Hoffman and they started with Toffoli, Chiarot, Lehkonen and Kulak. Not comparable.

 

[Xspyrit]

Kubalik is the first time we've had some scoring depth in the bottom six for quite some time.

Sure, we have a set top six, but one injury and we're back to last year's top six with one of Pinto or Grieg playing there.

Personally I'd rather move Joseph (and I get it would cost something) because I think he's more redundant than Kubalik.

Yeah but you know how I function. I look at all kind of facts before forming an opinion.

- Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season (23 ESP in 2021-22 and 28 ESP in 2022-23, in comparison Joseph had 30 ES+PK pts in 69 games in 2021-22)

- who does Kubalik would get PP time over? Stutzle, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris, Batherson, Tarasenko, Chabot, Sanderson, Chychrun... even Pinto, Brannstrom and Greig would be deserving)

- Over the last 3 seasons, among the 519 forwards who played at least 500 ES minutes, Joseph ranks 273th with 1.64 Pts/60 (higher than Kubalik, Pageau, Granlund, Yamamoto, Wennberg, Laughton, Hoffman, Perry, etc). He is a defensive forward and PK specialist and yet produces like an average 8th/9th forward

- With the cap rising next season and if Joseph rebounds offensively, he becomes a positive asset once again

- Joseph much better defensively and our best PK forward (elite metrics all his career)

- Our main problem last season? GF% at ES, we ended up 25th in the league which usually means no playoffs

- Kubalik is UFA after the season and we'd have to let him walk for nothing because our available cap space should go to replace Tarasenko adequately (ideally a 2-way upgrade). The UFA forward class should be stacked

- We can get an asset by trading Kubalik now, we'd have to PAY to move Joseph's contract now

- Joseph is already a member of the team, Kubalik never played a NHL game with these guys


I understand the 20 goals look attractive without much analysis but if he plays 3rd line all season with Pinto and Bailey (like in Dr's roster), I doubt he reaches that amount, particularly without PP. I think my Greig - Pinto - Joseph 3rd line would score more than Kubalik - Pinto - Bailey and be much much better defensively

 

[NyQuil]

Yeah but you know how I function. I look at all kind of facts before forming an opinion.

- Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season (23 ESP in 2021-22 and 28 ESP in 2022-23, in comparison Joseph had 30 ES+PK pts in 69 games in 2021-22)

- who does Kubalik would get PP time over? Stutzle, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris, Batherson, Tarasenko, Chabot, Sanderson, Chychrun... even Pinto, Brannstrom and Greig would be deserving)

- Joseph much better defensively and our best PK forward (elite metrics all his career)

- Our main problem last season? GF% at ES, we ended up 25th in the league which usually means no playoffs

- Kubalik is UFA after the season and we'd have to let him walk because our available cap should go to replace Tarasenko adequately (ideally a 2-way upgrade). The UFA forward class should be stacked

- We can get an asset by trading Kubalik, we'd have to PAY to move Joseph's contract

I understand the 20 goals look attractive without much analysis but if he plays 3rd line all season with Pinto and Bailey (like in Dr's roster), I doubt he reaches that amount, particularly without PP. I think my Greig - Pinto - Joseph 3rd line would score more than Kubalik - Pinto - Bailey and be much much better defensively

Again, my point isn't how he would perform in an ideal situation where everyone is healthy all year.

My point is that, in the case of another injury to a guy like Tarasenko or Norris, he can fill in on the PP and play the shooting role.

We lack shooters on this team - Kubalik is a shooter.

I still think a Kubalik-Pinto-Greig line scores more than a Greig-Pinto-Joseph third line.

 

[Xspyrit]

Again, my point isn't how he would perform in an ideal situation where everyone is healthy all year.

My point is that, in the case of another injury to a guy like Tarasenko or Norris, he can fill in on the PP and play the shooting role.

We lack shooters on this team - Kubalik is a shooter.

I still think a Kubalik-Pinto-Greig line scores more than a Greig-Pinto-Joseph third line.

We unfortunately can't really afford luxury insurance policies with a 5 M$ dead cap. We also lack defensive forwards who are elite on the PK (and we also traded Paul and Brown recently)

As for shooters, Norris, Stutzle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Tarasenko and Giroux can score a lot goals. All could score 25+ goals, with the first 3 could score 40+ goals. On defense we also have 3 guys who could score double digit goals. We also have Pinto and Greig who can add up some nice offense.

And outside of his first season, Kubalik scored 12, 13 goals and 12 goals at ES in near full seasons (only missed 5 games overall), for an average of 14 ES goals per 82 games. Outside of last season, Joseph scored 10 and 11 goals at ES in 125 games the 2 years prior for an average of 14 ES goals per 82 games. Even goal scoring that isn't Joseph forte, he scores at a similar rate as Kubalik (his strength)

Based on last 3 seasons, Joseph is easily the best player at ES and PK, while Kubalik is better on the PP. I understand it'd be great to have him in case of injuries but we need to shed cap. The only other solution would be to trade Brannstrom for a pick or minimum salary guy but that would most likely blow up in our faces when Brannstrom's value keep rising.

There's no ideal situation, I'm sure Dorion does his best!

 

[BondraTime]

Kubalik isn't the guy they should be sending out

 

[Xspyrit]

Kubalik isn't the guy they should be sending out

Who then? Based on all facts presented above

 

[BondraTime]

Who then? Based on all facts presented above

Either Brannstrom or Joseph

 

[misplacedsensfan]

Yeah but you know how I function. I look at all kind of facts before forming an opinion.

- Kubalik scored 17 of his 45 pts on the PP last season (23 ESP in 2021-22 and 28 ESP in 2022-23, in comparison Joseph had 30 ES+PK pts in 69 games in 2021-22)

- who does Kubalik would get PP time over? Stutzle, Tkachuk, Giroux, Norris, Batherson, Tarasenko, Chabot, Sanderson, Chychrun... even Pinto, Brannstrom and Greig would be deserving)

- Over the last 3 seasons, among the 519 forwards who played at least 500 ES minutes, Joseph ranks 273th with 1.64 Pts/60 (higher than Kubalik, Pageau, Granlund, Yamamoto, Wennberg, Laughton, Hoffman, Perry, etc). He is a defensive forward and PK specialist and yet produces like an average 8th/9th forward

- With the cap rising next season and if Joseph rebounds offensively, he becomes a positive asset once again

- Joseph much better defensively and our best PK forward (elite metrics all his career)

- Our main problem last season? GF% at ES, we ended up 25th in the league which usually means no playoffs

- Kubalik is UFA after the season and we'd have to let him walk for nothing because our available cap space should go to replace Tarasenko adequately (ideally a 2-way upgrade). The UFA forward class should be stacked

- We can get an asset by trading Kubalik now, we'd have to PAY to move Joseph's contract now

- Joseph is already a member of the team, Kubalik never played a NHL game with these guys


I understand the 20 goals look attractive without much analysis but if he plays 3rd line all season with Pinto and Bailey (like in Dr's roster), I doubt he reaches that amount, particularly without PP. I think my Greig - Pinto - Joseph 3rd line would score more than Kubalik - Pinto - Bailey and be much much better defensively

Kubalik had 13 even strength goals last year. That is 5 more even strength goals than Batherson. I think 20 goals is reasonable if he is playing on a good third line with plays injury fill in on the power play.

 

[Micklebot]

Kubalik isn't the guy they should be sending out

What we should do and what ends up being possible to do might be different.

Maybe we should trade Joseph, but we aren't fully in control of that decision, if nobody will take him without crazy overpayment, then our hands are essentially tied.

 

[NyQuil]

Based on last 3 seasons, Joseph is easily the best player at ES and PK, while Kubalik is better on the PP. I understand it'd be great to have him in case of injuries but we need to shed cap. The only other solution would be to trade Brannstrom for a pick or minimum salary guy but that would most likely blow up in our faces when Brannstrom's value keep rising.

There's no ideal situation, I'm sure Dorion does his best!

Well, I'm willing to be convinced.

I haven't seen Kubalik play so I can't really form an opinion of him outside of the metrics.

Outside of last season, Joseph scored 10 and 11 goals at ES in 125 games the 2 years prior for an average of 14 ES goals per 82 games. Even goal scoring that isn't Joseph forte, he scores at a similar rate as Kubalik (his strength)

Joseph definitely needs a bounce-back season after Dorion rewarded him with that contract.

He has 4 ESG in 67 games with the Senators over two seasons which is pretty poor.

Guys scoring at a greater clip include Zach Sanford, Adam Gaudette, Julien Gauthier, Patrick Brown, Parker Kelly, Mark Kastelic and Austin Watson.

In the two years prior, he was playing most frequently at ES with the likes of Stamkos, Killorn, Palat, Cirelli, Maroon and Johnson.

Those 14 ESG/82 GP look attractive without much analysis of who he was playing with.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Yeah, you don’t trade the 20 goal scorer we just picked up in a trade no matter how deep you look into numbers.

There are other moves to make that don’t make the squad weaker.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Joseph >>>> Bailey

Paying a valuable asset to move Joseph contract (signed just 1 year ago) to end overpaying Pinto (instead of signing him to a 1 year deal) and sign Bailey would be extremely stupid. That said, just more of the same as it has been under Dorion with Colin White, Matt Murray, Del Zotto, Dadonov, Zaitsev, Condon, Burrows, Boedker, Anisimov, etc... acquire/sign players so they either end on the dead cap or we have to squander assets to get rid of them (Dadonov the exception). Yes it "happens to every team" but we are on another level lol. And that is because our pro scouting has been terrible for a while

I'll leave that below as an hint as to what would be the smart thing to do :

I remain unconvinced, but I don't have any fancy stats to back that up, just a statement that if given the choice, it'd be Joseph to move on from over Kubalik. That said, if it costs to get rid of Joseph while Kubalik is actually worth something positive, I'd probably go there as I don't think he'll be here long term anyways, so point received on that specifically. I think Joseph can bounce back, but I don't ever see him being much more than a decent 3rd liner that's well paid.

I'm fine if it's Brannstrom too.

That's not to say it's not all a problem because we have 5 mil in dead cap, and that criticism of Dorion for it isn't warranted, but there's nothing that can be done about that now but work with the cards that have been dealt.

 

[Bileur]

Kubalik is the first time we've had some scoring depth in the bottom six for quite some time.

Sure, we have a set top six, but one injury and we're back to last year's top six with one of Pinto or Grieg playing there.

Personally I'd rather move Joseph (and I get it would cost something) because I think he's more redundant than Kubalik.

I guess it all depends on what it costs to move Joseph.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

One would think Sean Tierney was consulted.

His first day is today!

 

[SpezDispenser]

Kubalik is the first time we've had some scoring depth in the bottom six for quite some time.

Sure, we have a set top six, but one injury and we're back to last year's top six with one of Pinto or Grieg playing there.

Personally I'd rather move Joseph (and I get it would cost something) because I think he's more redundant than Kubalik.

I think this is obvious, personally.

 

[MoreGore]

That got me curious and went to check how they voted their pool on the Habs board

1. Lane Hutson, 50.8% (+7)
2. David Reinbacher, 84.8% (NA)
3. Logan Mailloux, 37.2% (+4)
4. Joshua Roy, 37.7% (+1)
5. Adam Engstrom, 42.8% (+21)
6. Owen Beck, 72.2% (+4)
7. Emil Heineman, 40.7% (+6)
8. Sean Farrell, 65.6% (-5)
9. Filip Mesar, 54.5% (-3)
10. Jakub Dobes, 29.5% (+4)
11. Jacob Fowler, 42.1% (NA)
12. Riley Kidney, 39.5% (+0)
13. Jayden Struble, 54.3% (+8)
14. Oliver Kapanen, 36.5% (+10)
15. William Trudeau, 37.3% (+15)
16. Cayden Primeau, 29.2% (-5)
17. Luke Tuch, 33.7% (+6)
18. Bogdan Konyushkov, 33.9% (NA)
19. Vincenz Rohrer, 33.3% (-1)
20. Jared Davidson, 32.5% (+14)

Juraj Slafkovsky has only played 39 NHL games, Kaiden Guhle only NHL 44 games, Harvey-Pinard 38 NHL games, Jesse Ylönen 52 NHL games, Arber Xhekaj 51 NHL games and Justin Barron only 46 NHL games

They could have been qualified if they used the 65 games threshold we use...If you count them, it gives the Habs a pretty sick Top-15. Plus, they have Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Newhook and Harris all on the roster and less than 25 y/o. Kovacevic one of the best waiver claims in recent years is 26 y/o

In the end, cap space is the principle constraint. You can have 21 McDavids, but you can only pay 8 of them.

 

[Flamingo]

The boys went and opened camp two weeks ago!

 

[KingAlfie11]

Yeah, you don’t trade the 20 goal scorer we just picked up in a trade no matter how deep you look into numbers.

There are other moves to make that don’t make the squad weaker.

I agree I want to keep Kubalik he gaves us offensive depth at that 3rd line and can also play on the PP, trading Joseph would be the ideal solution but Kubalik is way more attractive to other teams.

 

[HSF]

Kubalik also makes sense to move since he is a UFA

If he has a big season (i doubt it on the 3rd line) then he will out price himself. He also has a lot of leverage in where he gets to go after this year