Proposal: Trade Thread #60

[Galaxydoggystyle]

We need to get rid of Byron's cap hit and use it for Suzuki and Kotka's raises remember the cap is staying flat for a long while. So this is our team for the next 5ish years.

 

[26Mats]

Oh I like our 4th line as well but I want another solid 4th liner in case of injury.

Plus Belzile can be called up from Laval in case of injury. He's capable of getting the job done as a 4th liner with size and veteran savy.

 

[salbutera]

We need to get rid of Byron's cap hit and use it for Suzuki and Kotka's raises remember the cap is staying flat for a long while. So this is our team for the next 5ish years.

One of Chiarot /Edmundson will likely get claimed by Seattle IMO

 

[Dominator13]

Vegas needs to move coin, wonder if a swap of players might work. Just a thought, not patches though

So on 1 hand you want to give up a high pick in order to shred a salary of a 4th liner, who's not a nuisance in the slightest..

And on the other hand, you talk about acquiring a high priced player to relieve Vegas of their cap issues...

Do you not see the issue here? We get it, you like trades, but there's no chance that the Habs are going to go in 2 separate directions, simultaneously.

 

[Dominator13]

One of Chiarot /Edmundson will likely get claimed by Seattle IMO

Chiarot is good as gone imo.

I doubt Seatlle will take on 3 years of Edmudsson, when it's pretty much standard that defensive defensmen that aren't known for their speed, decline rather quickly.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If you're at 233K in Cap space with only a 22-man roster after schlepping a 3r rounder with Weal to move the veteran, you're not in a good position not to be deferring bonus money to 2021-22. Odds are Suzuki eats up the little Cap room you have left by earning most of his 425K in bonuses, if not all and then busting the Cap if all applied this year.

As bad as that sounds, KK can earn up to 2.5M in bonuses on his end and, if he has a decent year, I'd assume he easily gets half of those (haven't seen the bonus breakdown in his contract, though).

Beyond that, if Poehling progresses, Montreal would be handcuffed if they had to factor in the possibility that, by playing in the NHL, he might earn part or most of the 850K in potential bonus money.

Getting rid of Byron, even f it means trading, a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th along with him ends up saving enough money to cover bonuses and have some left over for the IR. We're still at a 22-man roster, though.

Things get easier next year where Cap flexibility kicks in as new contracts also do and others need to be renegotiated:

1) potential 700K gone from just not re-signing Weal.
2) 2M less than this year going to the Alzner buyout.
3) Potentially losing 3.5M for one of Chiarot or Edmundson picked by the Kracken or moving one of them if they aren't.
4) Possibility of shedding Allen's 2.875M contract easily, if he isn't rather picked by the Kracken.
5) Trading Tatar and his 4.8M at the deadline, especially if Caufield can join the team after performing well in his 2nd NCAA season
6) Trading Danault and his 3.083M at the deadline, especially if Poehling or Evans stand out.
7) Moving Drouin and his 5.5M.
8) Moving Kulak and his 1.85M, especially if one of Juulsen or Fleury have clearly taken the next step.
9) Saving the 1.5M - 2M that going with a 21-man roster represents, worst case scenario.
10) Counting the 3.4M gone with Byron gone
11) Moving in from Armia and his 2.6M with the arrival of Caufield and his ELC.

Compared to this year, before counting the extra costs starting next season (2.75M more for Gallagher, .750M more for Petry, a new contract for KK, etc.), Montreal could easily save 23M plus and potentially use that money to re-sign Tatar, Danault, Kotkaniemi and pay for the already established raises to Gallagher and Petry; 5.5M + 5.5M + 4.5M +2.75M +750K + ELC replacements and bonuses associated with Suzuki (425K), Caufield, Ylonen, Juulsen, etc., plus some IR money left over.

Graduating players on ELCs like Primeau, Harris, Norlinder, etc., in subsequent years, will make for Cap space needed to re-up Suzuki. Harris and Primeau, alone, by replacing 2.875M for Allen and 3.5M for Edmundson, would provide enough money to pay Suzuki around 5M.

I'm with you on the potential ELC performance bonuses. I've looked into it and I think it's low probability we get into trouble with one of KK, Suzuk, or Romanov but if we do, they have very very good seasons. The targets are high and for KK to get that $2.5M, he would have to have an all star type season. Regardless, it's important to have as much flexibility as possible. So yeah, I'm moving Weal if I can.. before the start of this season. If it takes a 3rd round pick, so be it. We have tons of picks from 3rd - 5th rounds so I don't see us having problems targeting guys on our draft board from 3rd round+ cause each teams draft boards will vary. I see Bergevin trading some of those picks for future picks anyways

Next years cap is going to be a challenge. Hard to say who we lose in the expansion draft and also if KK has a monster season. I'm not letting Danault go. Tatar and Byron are questionable.

 

[Sterling Archer]

One of Chiarot /Edmundson will likely get claimed by Seattle IMO

I'd put them at the top of the list but I'd also add Allen to that list. Depending on his performance, I'd have him as a dark horse to get picked up. Hard to find good goaltending and he'd presumably be one of the better ones made available IMO.

 

[Vachon23]

I'd put them at the top of the list but I'd also add Allen to that list. Depending on his performance, I'd have him as a dark horse to get picked up. Hard to find good goaltending and he'd presumably be one of the better ones made available IMO.

with his new contract I think he will be on top of their list if he have a good season this year.

 

[sampollock]

habs have a lot of promise, that camp will have jump

 

[Big Empty]

I'd put them at the top of the list but I'd also add Allen to that list. Depending on his performance, I'd have him as a dark horse to get picked up. Hard to find good goaltending and he'd presumably be one of the better ones made available IMO.

Allen also got signed to a reasonable contract for 2 more years. I think that makes him more interesting for Seattle than Chiarot.

 

[Roadhouse]

I'd put them at the top of the list but I'd also add Allen to that list. Depending on his performance, I'd have him as a dark horse to get picked up. Hard to find good goaltending and he'd presumably be one of the better ones made available IMO.

Either way, losing Chiarot/Edmundson or Allen to Seattle... it will either be one of our LHD prospects graduating with the team or Cayden Primeau's arrival. I think I'm fine with either outcome.

Caufield coming in next year is very probable at this point. My guess is the main in/out up front will be Tatar out Caufield in, with minor deals around Armia, Weal etc. as necessary to accommodate the raises next summer. Danault stays, ho ho ho.

The purpose of this Trade thread will pick up when it'll be time to get a return on Tatar as a pending UFA at the TDL, and see if Bergevin can find it in himself to make an additional move to improve the team ahead of the expansion draft. I really don't like a scenario where we re-sign Tatar to 5M+ over 4+ years simply because of the flat cap... different story if no-COVID.

 

[Sterling Archer]

Allen also got signed to a reasonable contract for 2 more years. I think that makes him more interesting for Seattle than Chiarot.

Agree it’s more likely Edmundson gets picked up over Chiarot but that’s not necessarily a bad thing anyways. Opens up more cap and space to add a younger player to the 3rd pairing and move Romanov up the lineup which I think he’ll earn anyways.

Either way, losing Chiarot/Edmundson or Allen to Seattle... it will either be one of our LHD prospects graduating with the team or Cayden Primeau's arrival. I think I'm fine with either outcome.

Caufield coming in next year is very probable at this point. My guess is the main in/out up front will be Tatar out Caufield in, with minor deals around Armia, Weal etc. as necessary to accommodate the raises next summer. Danault stays, ho ho ho.

The purpose of this Trade thread will pick up when it'll be time to get a return on Tatar as a pending UFA at the TDL, and see if Bergevin can find it in himself to make an additional move to improve the team ahead of the expansion draft. I really don't like a scenario where we re-sign Tatar to 5M+ over 4+ years simply because of the flat cap... different story if no-COVID.

Further to my response above, if Seattle takes Edmundson which I think might be most likely, it’s be silly to extend Tatar. Take that cap and go after a premium player who you know will be available next UFA season or via trade, like Laine. Then Tatar is replaced and youth moves up with that existing cap and roster spots and team is greatly improved. Proper cap management that we haven’t seen much of so I’m not sold that’s what will happen.

 

[Roadhouse]

Further to my response above, if Seattle takes Edmundson which I think might be most likely, it’s be silly to extend Tatar. Take that cap and go after a premium player who you know will be available next UFA season or via trade, like Laine. Then Tatar is replaced and youth moves up with that existing cap and roster spots and team is greatly improved. Proper cap management that we haven’t seen much of so I’m not sold that’s what will happen.

That's the thing, with raises to KK, Lehkonen then Suzuki, Romanov I don't think there's any room to add a Laine type in there. The flat cap stands in the way. We'll add Caufield, lose Tatar and see minor changes on the bottom 6; I think it's more than enough to set the roster for 3-4 years, provided the new additions perform well. Pretty sure they will.

 

[Sterling Archer]

That's the thing, with raises to KK, Lehkonen then Suzuki, Romanov I don't think there's any room to add a Laine type in there. The flat cap stands in the way. We'll add Caufield, lose Tatar and see minor changes on the bottom 6; I think it's more than enough to set the roster for 3-4 years, provided the new additions perform well. Pretty sure they will.

I don't think you're taking into account losing Kulak, Weal, Byron on top of that. That raises even more cap with young replacements coming up like Caufield, Poehling, Ylonen, Harris etc etc etc. Also, the cost to resign players will likely be lower due to the reduced revenues and less teams competing for thier services. So overall, I think there's more than enough room to add more quality players while bringing up younger players than you may be calculating.

 

[Habs Halifax]

One of Chiarot /Edmundson will likely get claimed by Seattle IMO

It depends a lot on how this next season goes. Remember when there was talk Pleky would get taken (a year before the expansion draft)? Things are going to change. Right now today, it looks like one of Chiarot, Edmundson, or Allen gets taken. However, it could end up being Evans, Juulsen, or Mete.... like I said, it depends on how this season goes

 

[Roadhouse]

I don't think you're taking into account losing Kulak, Weal, Byron on top of that. That raises even more cap with young replacements coming up like Caufield, Poehling, Ylonen, Harris etc etc etc. Also, the cost to resign players will likely be lower due to the reduced revenues and less teams competing for thier services. So overall, I think there's more than enough room to add more quality players while bringing up younger players than you may be calculating.

Well you mentioned Poehling, Ylonen and Harris, I'll take the 'etc' as a Norlinder or Fleury type of arrival. I don't think Byron can be dealt, just like we couldn't offload Drouin at this past draft. Kulak is still signed for 2021-22 so not sure why he's mentioned...?

For 2021-22,

1. Tatar --> Caufield
2. Weal (13th forward) --> Ylonen or 1-year UFA
3. Renew Danault
4. Renew Armia (Poehling is not ready/will not be) or trade him at the TDL (Poehling is ready for full-time NHL)
+
5. One of Norlinder/Fleury/Brook to replace Edmundson or Chiarot OR Cayden Primeau to replace Jake Allen.

I think that's all there is to next offseason. Raises to Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, Suzuki and Romanov will all happen under a flat cap. Bergevin is the conservative type even if we're spending to the cap today.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't think you're taking into account losing Kulak, Weal, Byron on top of that. That raises even more cap with young replacements coming up like Caufield, Poehling, Ylonen, Harris etc etc etc. Also, the cost to resign players will likely be lower due to the reduced revenues and less teams competing for thier services. So overall, I think there's more than enough room to add more quality players while bringing up younger players than you may be calculating.

Next years cap (21/22) is a bit of a challenge but after that season, we have a bit more flexibility. Suzuki and KK will be bridged. If they get a long term deal, it's going to be like Patch, Gally, or Price and it's a value contract.

Tatar and Byron are likely the guys that are let go due to our cap. That's more than enough cap than we need. And if one of Edmundson, Chiarot, or Allen get taken in the expansion draft, we get even more space. The other situation is trading Byron and letting Armia go and keeping Tatar. We do have too many RW players at the moment.

So many possibilities and a lot rides on how our team and individual players do this season

 

[Sterling Archer]

Well you mentioned Poehling, Ylonen and Harris, I'll take the 'etc' as a Norlinder or Fleury type of arrival. I don't think Byron can be dealt, just like we couldn't offload Drouin at this past draft. Kulak is still signed for 2021-22 so not sure why he's mentioned...?

For 2021-22,

1. Tatar --> Caufield
2. Weal (13th forward) --> Ylonen or 1-year UFA
3. Renew Danault
4. Renew Armia (Poehling is not ready/will not be) or trade him at the TDL (Poehling is ready for full-time NHL)
+
5. One of Norlinder/Fleury/Brook to replace Edmundson or Chiarot OR Cayden Primeau to replace Jake Allen.

I think that's all there is to next offseason. Raises to Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, Suzuki and Romanov will all happen under a flat cap. Bergevin is the conservative type even if we're spending to the cap today.

I think you're mixing up "can not be dealt" with Byron and Drouin with can't be dealt. They can in fact be dealt. There's no question there as far less productive players have been dealt than them. Drouin is worth more than most give him credit for. The question is what will you get for him. As for Byron, he can be dealt. We'd likely either have to take back some cap or take a contract that we can then bury or buyout, like we did with Mason when we got Armia or add a sweetener like one of the plethora of picks we have to a team like Arizona who needs picks. So it's absolutely possible to get rid of Byron if we needed to.

Kulak has one year left and is a serviceable NHL defencman on a good contract. Again, I wouldn't foresee any difficulty in trading him. We haven't now because we didn't need to as we don't have the bodies to replace him yet. That will change next year.

Also, it's likely that we move on from one of Armia or Lehkonen as there just isn't enough room on the roster going into the next few years as youngsters begin to push their way into the lineup. So I wouldn't bank on too much of a raise for either, or the one we keep.

I'd also highlight why Alzner was bought out this year and not next when it would've been more beneficial from an overall money saving perspective. Answer likely lies in that the cap savings is greater in the following years and gives us more cap flexibility moving forward than had they waited until next year. That tells me they're looking to add even more cap for 2021-2022 than this year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Well you mentioned Poehling, Ylonen and Harris, I'll take the 'etc' as a Norlinder or Fleury type of arrival. I don't think Byron can be dealt, just like we couldn't offload Drouin at this past draft. Kulak is still signed for 2021-22 so not sure why he's mentioned...?

For 2021-22,

1. Tatar --> Caufield
2. Weal (13th forward) --> Ylonen or 1-year UFA
3. Renew Danault
4. Renew Armia (Poehling is not ready/will not be) or trade him at the TDL (Poehling is ready for full-time NHL)
+
5. One of Norlinder/Fleury/Brook to replace Edmundson or Chiarot OR Cayden Primeau to replace Jake Allen.

I think that's all there is to next offseason. Raises to Kotkaniemi, Lehkonen, Suzuki and Romanov will all happen under a flat cap. Bergevin is the conservative type even if we're spending to the cap today.

They key is going to be with term on how contracts overlap and when they expire. The other factor is who Seattle takes. It's possible that Byron is traded (not easy in the flat cap I know but it can be done if we need to) and we let Armia go and keep Tatar. If Armia is extended, we are loaded at RW and not so much at LW

Caufield to me will play AHL next year. He's not ready to face less time and space and more physical players. Said that with Suzuki and he proved me wrong. I'll be happy if Caufield proves me wrong again but Suzuki was more the exception to the rule vs the rule. And he started on wing which we were not strong at. Caufield will be battling for spots against better players vs what Suzuki had to battle against. Same with KK at 3C when he was 18

 

[sampollock]

if this season is a go, depth will be so important...injuries will happen...Byron will get hurt

 

[Roadhouse]

It seems Lebrun was tracking the possibility of an Anderson trade (February) as well as potential Habs interest (early October before the trade).

 

[Scriptor]

Next years cap (21/22) is a bit of a challenge but after that season, we have a bit more flexibility. Suzuki and KK will be bridged. If they get a long term deal, it's going to be like Patch, Gally, or Price and it's a value contract.

Tatar and Byron are likely the guys that are let go due to our cap. That's more than enough cap than we need. And if one of Edmundson, Chiarot, or Allen get taken in the expansion draft, we get even more space. The other situation is trading Byron and letting Armia go and keeping Tatar. We do have too many RW players at the moment.

So many possibilities and a lot rides on how our team and individual players do this season

Looks to me like Armia is redundant with Anderson, Gallagher, Toffoli and Caufield in the mix for top-9 spots that may grow to top-4 or top-line spots...

Armia, who is earning 2.6M, will be an UFA and looking for more. As a potential 4th line winger on the Habs' depth chart, he'll be sorely overpriced. His bigger value to the team may be in a trade at the deadline or to keep him for a long playoff push and risk losing him f0r nothing in the offseason.

Lehkonen will likely be extended on a bridge deal for no more than 2.75M, which is fine for me for a player that can play spells anywhere in the lineup and play on both wings.

Taking Byron could be a good deal for the Kraken because he brings effort in a veteran presence and entertainment value with his speed and counter attack skills. Plus, Montreal can stock their sock with draft picks.

With all the picks that we have -- that we can't possibly all sign once they are drafted -- I'd feel free to add a 2nd rounder, a 3rd rounder, a 4th rounder and a 5th rounder to get Byron's contract off the books. Yes, that's a lot of futures but, I don't think Montreal suffers very much from losing this picks. It's mostly an example of how the deal could easily be made, IMHO. It also allows us to keep Allen who then remains a trade chip later on (2nd year of his contract) when Primeau will have seen an entire season as a #1G in Laval.

Chiarot can then be likely easily traded at the deadline this year if Romanov has confirmed the promise that we see in him. Kulak would remain a cheaper failsafe at 1.85M rather than 3.5M while we give Harris, Norlinder, etc. an extra year to mature (maybe in the AHL) before getting a crack at the NHL roster.

Weal simply won't be renewed and replaced by a Teasedale or someone of that ilk near league minimum.

We save an extra 2M off the buyout cost for Alzner starting after this upcoming season.

We have salary needs to address, even f we don't keep Armia; 2.75M more for Gallagher, 750K more for Petry, what I believe will be a minimal 350K more for Lehkonen for a couple of years (long enough to let Ylonen mature as a potential replacement), probable 425K in bonuses for Suzuki in the final year of his ELC, a bridge contract for Kotkaniemi (3.5M up from the near 1M base salary -- basically the equivalent of confirming full bonuses for a few years), some money for the IR, etc.

Byron saves 3.4M, minus the replacement player's cost towards the Cap
Letting Armia go, altogether, or trading him for futures would save 2.6M, minus the cost of a replacement (Caufield on ELC?)
Saving 2M on the Alzner buyout is a given
700K saving on Weal VS Teasedale, for example
Moving Chiarot for Kulak is a net savings of 1.65M

There's over 10M that can easily be removed from the Cap costs, with a marginal Cap hit for a depth winger and an ELC contract for a potential sniper in Caufield to add onto the roster but, it's still tight with the contract readjustments and trying to re-sign Danault, even at a reasonable raise that doesn't go higher than 5M as a new Cap hit.

It really looks like moving Allen's 2.875M to replace it with Primeau's 880K will be necessary to accommodate all the changes.

It only gets more serious when we will need to re-up Suzuki, even if it is to a bridge contract.

The only way I see things going well os if young Ds graduate swiftlypup the system and we move on fro Weber before the end of his contract, hopefully after a Cup win that helps him consider early retirement

 

[HuGo Sham]

Looks to me like Armia is redundant with Anderson, Gallagher, Toffoli and Caufield in the mix for top-9 spots that may grow to top-4 or top-line spots...

Armia, who is earning 2.6M, will be an UFA and looking for more. As a potential 4th line winger on the Habs' depth chart, he'll be sorely overpriced. His bigger value to the team may be in a trade at the deadline or to keep him for a long playoff push and risk losing him f0r nothing in the offseason.

Lehkonen will likely be extended on a bridge deal for no more than 2.75M, which is fine for me for a player that can play spells anywhere in the lineup and play on both wings.

Taking Byron could be a good deal for the Kraken because he brings effort in a veteran presence and entertainment value with his speed and counter attack skills. Plus, Montreal can stock their sock with draft picks.

With all the picks that we have -- that we can't possibly all sign once they are drafted -- I'd feel free to add a 2nd rounder, a 3rd rounder, a 4th rounder and a 5th rounder to get Byron's contract off the books. Yes, that's a lot of futures but, I don't think Montreal suffers very much from losing this picks. It's mostly an example of how the deal could easily be made, IMHO. It also allows us to keep Allen who then remains a trade chip later on (2nd year of his contract) when Primeau will have seen an entire season as a #1G in Laval.

Chiarot can then be likely easily traded at the deadline this year if Romanov has confirmed the promise that we see in him. Kulak would remain a cheaper failsafe at 1.85M rather than 3.5M while we give Harris, Norlinder, etc. an extra year to mature (maybe in the AHL) before getting a crack at the NHL roster.

Weal simply won't be renewed and replaced by a Teasedale or someone of that ilk near league minimum.

We save an extra 2M off the buyout cost for Alzner starting after this upcoming season.

We have salary needs to address, even f we don't keep Armia; 2.75M more for Gallagher, 750K more for Petry, what I believe will be a minimal 350K more for Lehkonen for a couple of years (long enough to let Ylonen mature as a potential replacement), probable 425K in bonuses for Suzuki in the final year of his ELC, a bridge contract for Kotkaniemi (3.5M up from the near 1M base salary -- basically the equivalent of confirming full bonuses for a few years), some money for the IR, etc.

Byron saves 3.4M, minus the replacement player's cost towards the Cap
Letting Armia go, altogether, or trading him for futures would save 2.6M, minus the cost of a replacement (Caufield on ELC?)
Saving 2M on the Alzner buyout is a given
700K saving on Weal VS Teasedale, for example
Moving Chiarot for Kulak is a net savings of 1.65M

There's over 10M that can easily be removed from the Cap costs, with a marginal Cap hit for a depth winger and an ELC contract for a potential sniper in Caufield to add onto the roster but, it's still tight with the contract readjustments and trying to re-sign Danault, even at a reasonable raise that doesn't go higher than 5M as a new Cap hit.

It really looks like moving Allen's 2.875M to replace it with Primeau's 880K will be necessary to accommodate all the changes.

It only gets more serious when we will need to re-up Suzuki, even if it is to a bridge contract.

The only way I see things going well os if young Ds graduate swiftlypup the system and we move on fro Weber before the end of his contract, hopefully after a Cup win that helps him consider early retirement

wow that's some insanely bad asset management

 

[417]

Plus Belzile can be called up from Laval in case of injury. He's capable of getting the job done as a 4th liner with size and veteran savy.

He's a replacement level player..hope we don't have to see him again

 

[Kriss E]

It seems Lebrun was tracking the possibility of an Anderson trade (February) as well as potential Habs interest (early October before the trade).

Bergevin said he's been chasing Anderson for years.