Situation 1 (-$366k of cap space):
* Weal as the 13th forward. Still cost us $325k of cap space
* Mete as the 7th D man
* 22 man roster
We are over the cap and not even a 23 man roster.
Situation 2 ($8k or -$108k of cap space):
* Send Weal to AHL where it still cost us $325k of cap space
* Use Balzile as the 13th forward ($700k) or sign Kovalchuk or Perry at $800k
* Mete as the 7th D man
* 22 man roster
We are at the cap or over the cap and not even a 23 man roster.
Situation 3 ($233k of cap space):
* Add a 3rd and trade Weal
* Sign Kovalchuk or Perry at $800k
* Mete as the 7th D man
* 22 man roster
22 man roster with $233k of cap space is much better flexibility.
Any space we can create, we should. Some say move Byron but I think we need to move Weal first. If it cost us a 3rd to move Weal, it's going to cost us a 1st to move Byron this off season. Lets worry about Byron next year (beginning of the off season, not the end of it). We have to consider that Suzuki, KK, and Romanov are on ELC where they could reach bonus targets. Deferring that to 21/22 is also a bad idea.
I value the 3rd rounder but not going to cry about it. Cap space needs to be managed carefully. This is a move I see Bergevin making
If you're at 233K in Cap space with only a 22-man roster after schlepping a 3r rounder with Weal to move the veteran, you're not in a good position not to be deferring bonus money to 2021-22. Odds are Suzuki eats up the little Cap room you have left by earning most of his 425K in bonuses, if not all and then busting the Cap if all applied this year.
As bad as that sounds, KK can earn up to 2.5M in bonuses on his end and, if he has a decent year, I'd assume he easily gets half of those (haven't seen the bonus breakdown in his contract, though).
Beyond that, if Poehling progresses, Montreal would be handcuffed if they had to factor in the possibility that, by playing in the NHL, he might earn part or most of the 850K in potential bonus money.
Getting rid of Byron, even f it means trading, a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th along with him ends up saving enough money to cover bonuses and have some left over for the IR. We're still at a 22-man roster, though.
Things get easier next year where Cap flexibility kicks in as new contracts also do and others need to be renegotiated:
1) potential 700K gone from just not re-signing Weal.
2) 2M less than this year going to the Alzner buyout.
3) Potentially losing 3.5M for one of Chiarot or Edmundson picked by the Kracken or moving one of them if they aren't.
4) Possibility of shedding Allen's 2.875M contract easily, if he isn't rather picked by the Kracken.
5) Trading Tatar and his 4.8M at the deadline, especially if Caufield can join the team after performing well in his 2nd NCAA season
6) Trading Danault and his 3.083M at the deadline, especially if Poehling or Evans stand out.
7) Moving Drouin and his 5.5M.
8) Moving Kulak and his 1.85M, especially if one of Juulsen or Fleury have clearly taken the next step.
9) Saving the 1.5M - 2M that going with a 21-man roster represents, worst case scenario.
10) Counting the 3.4M gone with Byron gone
11) Moving in from Armia and his 2.6M with the arrival of Caufield and his ELC.
Compared to this year, before counting the extra costs starting next season (2.75M more for Gallagher, .750M more for Petry, a new contract for KK, etc.), Montreal could easily save 23M plus and potentially use that money to re-sign Tatar, Danault, Kotkaniemi and pay for the already established raises to Gallagher and Petry; 5.5M + 5.5M + 4.5M +2.75M +750K + ELC replacements and bonuses associated with Suzuki (425K), Caufield, Ylonen, Juulsen, etc., plus some IR money left over.
Graduating players on ELCs like Primeau, Harris, Norlinder, etc., in subsequent years, will make for Cap space needed to re-up Suzuki. Harris and Primeau, alone, by replacing 2.875M for Allen and 3.5M for Edmundson, would provide enough money to pay Suzuki around 5M.
