Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part VI

[Boud]

Ironically, you're basically describing the Karlsson trade, which Tierney was a big piece of and a lot of people have warmed up to.

Exactly, these trades basically never happen. Hence the reaction to the trade and the return.

 

[dumbdick]

Surprising Fact:

EDIT: I Suck at Math. This originally said 79%.

In terms of career pts/g, Chris Tierney has outscored 64% of the forwards drafted between 13th and 17th overall in the 2005 - 2015 NHL entry drafts (excluded Senyshyn who got a high PPG but only played a few games). He currently makes $2.9M.

I'm not saying he's a star or anything, but this guy really deserves a bit more love around here.

 

[JD1]

Surprising Fact:
In terms of career pts/g, Chris Tierney has outscored 79% of the forwards drafted between 13th and 17th overall in the 2005 - 2015 NHL entry drafts. He currently makes $2.9M.

I'm not saying he's a star or anything, but this guy really deserves a bit more love around here.

People's judgement is clouded as a result of how we acquired him

 

[Micklebot]

People's judgement is clouded as a result of how we acquired him

I think thats an oversimplification.

The reality is Tierney is a 3rd line 2nd line tweener that we play as a 1st line 2nd line tweener and he doesn't add a lot beyond offense and PK.

That's not a criticism of him, he's useful but we aren't at the stage where we need to fill holes with useful players, we need to hit some home runs.

Beyond that, you need to give someting of value to get something.

 

[JD1]

I think thats an oversimplification.

The reality is Tierney is a 3rd line 2nd line tweener that we play as a 1st line 2nd line tweener and he doesn't add a lot beyond offense and PK.

That's not a criticism of him, he's useful but we aren't at the stage where we need to fill holes with useful players, we need to hit some home runs.

Beyond that, you need to give someting of value to get something.

I'm not saying Tierney is worth anything here. There's an entire page worth of debate on his worth. I'm simply saying people's judgement is clouded based on how we acquired him. People's judgement was clouded on Norris too. Go back last summer and look at the reactions to me suggesting that he could prove to be a better player than White. Now White didn't have a good season and Norris had a great one but that notwithstanding people were not open at all to the notion that norris at 19oa might be better than white ar 21oa.

I think judgement has been clouded about that trade since the day it happened in terms of both what we moved out andxwhat we acquired

There was an article posted in the Athletic yesterday on player grades. There was a lot of debate here on Karlsson in the room, heated debate. Name calling.

It's a polarizing issue with a lot of strong opinions

Erik Karlsson
56 GP, 6G, 34A, 40 pts
Grade: C-
A few things stand out about Karlsson’s campaign. For the second straight season, he struggled early, perhaps as a result of his offseason groin surgery. He once again endured an injury that cost him significant time, although, to be fair, there isn’t much Karlsson could do about getting hit in the hand by a slap shot. And finally, there are questions about whether he fits in the dressing room, as his leadership style at times can be abrasive (Karlsson admitted in December that he can sometimes go “a little bit overboard” in how he expresses himself). Regardless, he’s here for the long term and the Sharks will probably have to build their team around him for the foreseeable future — while hoping that he can play better, because Karlsson was much too inconsistent before breaking his thumb in a game on Feb. 14.

 

[Micklebot]

Surprising Fact:
In terms of career pts/g, Chris Tierney has outscored 79% of the forwards drafted between 13th and 17th overall in the 2005 - 2015 NHL entry drafts. He currently makes $2.9M.

I'm not saying he's a star or anything, but this guy really deserves a bit more love around here.

Can you show your work on that?

Tierney has a career pts/g of .43,

I counted 28 forwards drafted between 2005 and 2015, with 12 having higher than .43pts per game (11 if you don't count Senyshyn who only played 6 games), so 43% or 39%. That includes Cherepanov who died before playing a game (RIP).

NHL Draft Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The only way I can make any sense of your claim is if you're comparing Tiereney' pts per game this past season to draft picks between 2005-2015 career pts per game, while omiting the 2015 draft, which is less a fun fact and more a misleading one.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not saying Tierney is worth anything here. There's an entire page worth of debate on his worth. I'm simply saying people's judgement is clouded based on how we acquired him. People's judgement was clouded on Norris too. Go back last summer and look at the reactions to me suggesting that he could prove to be a better player than White. Now White didn't have a good season and Norris had a great one but that notwithstanding people were not open at all to the notion that norris at 19oa might be better than white ar 21oa.

I think judgement has been clouded about that trade since the day it happened in terms of both what we moved out andxwhat we acquired

There was an article posted in the Athletic yesterday on player grades. There was a lot of debate here on Karlsson in the room, heated debate. Name calling.

It's a polarizing issue with a lot of strong opinions

Erik Karlsson
56 GP, 6G, 34A, 40 pts
Grade: C-
A few things stand out about Karlsson’s campaign. For the second straight season, he struggled early, perhaps as a result of his offseason groin surgery. He once again endured an injury that cost him significant time, although, to be fair, there isn’t much Karlsson could do about getting hit in the hand by a slap shot. And finally, there are questions about whether he fits in the dressing room, as his leadership style at times can be abrasive (Karlsson admitted in December that he can sometimes go “a little bit overboard” in how he expresses himself). Regardless, he’s here for the long term and the Sharks will probably have to build their team around him for the foreseeable future — while hoping that he can play better, because Karlsson was much too inconsistent before breaking his thumb in a game on Feb. 14.

Yeah, I get what you are claiming, I disagree. I certainly think it was the case early on, but I also think like with Norris, people have now seen enough of him to make an informed evaluation.

Anyways, I have zero interest in rehashing the Karlsson trade, so I'll leave it at that.

 

[dumbdick]

Can you show your work on that?

Tierney has a career pts/g of .43,

I counted 28 forwards drafted between 2005 and 2015, with 12 having higher than .43pts per game (11 if you don't count Senyshyn who only played 6 games), so 43% or 39%. That includes Cherepanov who died before playing a game (RIP).

NHL Draft Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

The only way I can make any sense of your claim is if you're comparing Tiereney' pts per game this past season to draft picks between 2005-2015 career pts per game, while omiting the 2015 draft, which is less a fun fact and more a misleading one.

Shit. You're right. I was doing some analysis with guys around the 33 and 78 positions as well and forgot to exclude them. I'll edit the original post.

The number I've got now is 64%. Still good, but not as good. My bad.
2015 16 Mathew Barzal 0.8846154
2010 16 Vladimir Tarasenko 0.8441815
2015 17 Kyle Connor 0.8072289
2010 14 Jaden Schwartz 0.7013487
2014 15 Dylan Larkin 0.6838046
2012 17 Tomas Hertl 0.6181015
2011 15 J.T. Miller 0.6130952
2015 14 Jake DeBrusk 0.5911330
2014 13 Jakub Vrana 0.5387755
2005 17 Martin Hanzal 0.5022288
2015 15 Zachary Senyshyn 0.4999999
2013 14 Alexander Wennberg 0.4843373
2011 13 Sven Baertschi 0.4742268
2006 14 Michael Grabner 0.4312500
2006 13 Jiri Tlusty 0.3968610
2007 13 Lars Eller 0.3899204
2008 16 Joe Colborne 0.3864407
2011 16 Joel Armia 0.3762712
2014 16 Sonny Milano 0.3760000
2012 13 Radek Faksa 0.3646724
2012 16 Tom Wilson 0.3601533
2009 13 Zack Kassian 0.3371429
2009 15 Peter Holland 0.3195489
2012 14 Zemgus Girgensons 0.2822086
2006 17 Trevor Lewis 0.2418398
2008 14 Zach Boychuk 0.2362205
2013 17 Curtis Lazar 0.2147887
2005 15 Ryan O'Marra 0.2121212
2010 17 Joey Hishon 0.1538461
2007 16 Colton Gillies 0.1168831
2005 13 Marek Zagrapan 0.0000000
2005 16 Alex Bourret 0.0000000
2007 17 Alexei Cherepanov 0.0000000

 

[Micklebot]

Shit. You're right. I was doing some analysis with guys around the 33 and 78 positions as well and forgot to exclude them. I'll edit the original post.

The number I've got now is 64%. Still good, but not as good. My bad.
2015 16 Mathew Barzal 0.8846154
2010 16 Vladimir Tarasenko 0.8441815
2015 17 Kyle Connor 0.8072289
2010 14 Jaden Schwartz 0.7013487
2014 15 Dylan Larkin 0.6838046
2012 17 Tomas Hertl 0.6181015
2011 15 J.T. Miller 0.6130952
2015 14 Jake DeBrusk 0.5911330
2014 13 Jakub Vrana 0.5387755
2005 17 Martin Hanzal 0.5022288
2015 15 Zachary Senyshyn 0.4999999
2013 14 Alexander Wennberg 0.4843373
2011 13 Sven Baertschi 0.4742268
2006 14 Michael Grabner 0.4312500
2006 13 Jiri Tlusty 0.3968610
2007 13 Lars Eller 0.3899204
2008 16 Joe Colborne 0.3864407
2011 16 Joel Armia 0.3762712
2014 16 Sonny Milano 0.3760000
2012 13 Radek Faksa 0.3646724
2012 16 Tom Wilson 0.3601533
2009 13 Zack Kassian 0.3371429
2009 15 Peter Holland 0.3195489
2012 14 Zemgus Girgensons 0.2822086
2006 17 Trevor Lewis 0.2418398
2008 14 Zach Boychuk 0.2362205
2013 17 Curtis Lazar 0.2147887
2005 15 Ryan O'Marra 0.2121212
2010 17 Joey Hishon 0.1538461
2007 16 Colton Gillies 0.1168831
2005 13 Marek Zagrapan 0.0000000
2005 16 Alex Bourret 0.0000000
2007 17 Alexei Cherepanov 0.0000000

It happens to the best of us, no worries.

I think Tierney is a great piece for a team looking for supporting cast to an established core, but i don't see him ever becoming a core piece.

If you have say a 25% chance of getting a core player, a 20-25% chance of getting a similar player, and a 50% chance of a significantly worse player, i think you do it in our situation.

If we didn't have the prospect pool we have or we had an established young core with support roles that needed filling it might change the arithmetic a bit.

 

[bert]

I'm not saying Tierney is worth anything here. There's an entire page woased on how we acquired him. People's judgement was clouded on Norris too. Go back last summer and look at the reactions to me suggesting that he could prove to be a better player than White. Now White didn't have a good season and Norris had a great one but that notwithstanding people were not open at all to the notion that norris at 19oa might be better than white ar 21oa.

I think judgement has been clouded about that trade since the day it happened in terms of both what we moved out andxwhat we acquired

There was an article posted in the Athletic yesterday on player grades. There was a lot of debate here on Karlsson in the room, heated debate. Name calling.

It's a polarizing issue with a lot of strong opinions

Erik Karlsson
56 GP, 6G, 34A, 40 pts
Grade: C-
A few things stand out about Karlsson’s campaign. For the second straight season, he struggled early, perhaps as a result of his offseason groin surgery. He once again endured an injury that cost him significant time, although, to be fair, there isn’t much Karlsson could do about getting hit in the hand by a slap shot. And finally, there are questions about whether he fits in the dressing room, as his leadership style at times can be abrasive (Karlsson admitted in December that he can sometimes go “a little bit overboard” in how he expresses himself). Regardless, he’s here for the long term and the Sharks will probably have to build their team around him for the foreseeable future — while hoping that he can play better, because Karlsson was much too inconsistent before breaking his thumb in a game on Feb. 14.

We have all watched Tierney play for 2 seasons how he was aquired has nothing to do with peoples evaluations. Same with Demelo, using peoples reactions two years ago has no impact on how people view these players now. Tierney has value, I personally think he plays too much of a vanilla game to have a long term future here as anything more than a depth player. He doesnt have any jam, I personally think they should trade him before they pay him. Like Anisimov he is a place holder here next seasob, however unlike Anisimov he does have value. The closer he gets to UFA or the more overpaid he is the less value he has.

I think thats an oversimplification.

The reality is Tierney is a 3rd line 2nd line tweener that we play as a 1st line 2nd line tweener and he doesn't add a lot beyond offense and PK.

That's not a criticism of him, he's useful but we aren't at the stage where we need to fill holes with useful players, we need to hit some home runs.

Beyond that, you need to give someting of value to get something.

Yeah, I get what you are claiming, I disagree. I certainly think it was the case early on, but I also think like with Norris, people have now seen enough of him to make an informed evaluation.

Anyways, I have zero interest in rehashing the Karlsson trade, so I'll leave it at that.

Agree 100 percent.

 

[dumbdick]

It happens to the best of us, no worries.

I think Tierney is a great piece for a team looking for supporting cast to an established core, but i don't see him ever becoming a core piece.

If you have say a 25% chance of getting a core player, a 20-25% chance of getting a similar player, and a 50% chance of a significantly worse player, i think you do it in our situation.

If we didn't have the prospect pool we have or we had an established young core with support roles that needed filling it might change the arithmetic a bit.

You would have liked the original analysis I was doing, which looked at the odds of getting an impact player with two picks around 33/78 vs one pick around 15.

Your odds were better with the better pick, but the extra pick really closes that gap to a surprising amount. Lots of good players drafted in those later ranges (O'reilly, ghost, guentzel, neal, aho). Made me really think we should be trading back more.

 

[Sweatred]

You would have liked the original analysis I was doing, which looked at the odds of getting an impact player with two picks around 33/78 vs one pick around 15.

Your odds were better with the better pick, but the extra pick really closes that gap to a surprising amount. Lots of good players drafted in those later ranges (O'reilly, ghost, guentzel, neal, aho). Made me really think we should be trading back more.

Winnipeg only has about $3.7 of cap space to work with this year. Lots of UFA’s/RFA’s coming and going but I doubt they want to clog things up with CT’s $4 million.

 

[Sensung]

People's judgement is clouded as a result of how we acquired him

Agreed.

Some seem very intent on inflating his value at every opportunity.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

You can't just look at a draft pick and say x player is better than the average player from that draft position. It ignores that if a team acquires a player 15th overall, that player will see their ELC slide for 2 years, be on their ELC for years 3/4/5 of their career, and then have at least 2 more RFA years with no arbitration rights.

Tierney is going to make 3+ million next year after going to arbitration, and will be on his last year of team control. So he's either a rental, or someone has to go out and pay him 3+ million on a multi-year contract. The dynamic is completely different.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Realistically, I think our best value usage of Tierney would be to replace a pick that we use to move up i.e 21 + 48 for 16, then trade Tierney for a mid 2nd and a 4th, or something like that (or just substitute him for 48th OV and maybe throw in a midrounder). No team is gonna value him as a piece to move out of the 1st round for, even if they still get a high 2nd.

 

[Sweatred]

Realistically, I think our best value usage of Tierney would be to replace a pick that we use to move up i.e 21 + 48 for 16, then trade Tierney for a mid 2nd and a 4th, or something like that (or just substitute him for 48th OV and maybe throw in a midrounder). No team is gonna value him as a piece to move out of the 1st round for, even if they still get a high 2nd.

I like this idea but I think it is best suited at the 2021 or 2022 TDL.

I think we need him (unless we add a veteran Center). Moving CT would leave Arti as the only veteran Center to support Norris, 2020 1RD, Brown, Chaplik or White.

That is razor thin, especially if Brown and Norris get sent down.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I like this idea but I think it is best suited at the 2021 or 2022 TDL.

I think we need him (unless we add a veteran Center). Moving CT would leave Arti as the only veteran Center to support Norris, 2020 1RD, Brown, Chaplik or White.

That is razor thin, especially if Brown and Norris get sent down.

Yes, I don't disagree with that necessarily, I was referring solely to dealing him at the draft. That said, it will depend on the contract that Tierney receives. If he gets signed to a 1yr deal, for example, his value likely goes down to some teams, and up to others. If he is signed to a 3 yr deal, his value goes up to some teams and, again, down to others. Shopping him without a contract, imo, offers the most flexibility to the acquiring team and therefore means the market will likely be larger.

That said, I have no issue signing Tierney to a 2-3 yr deal and shopping him a year or so down the line. I think he can insulate our upcoming C's like no one else in the organization and that's a valuable asset in its own right, even if I don't see Tierney as a longterm piece.

 

[Bileur]

I’d be fine with signing Tierney to a 1 year extension and essentially giving him the Pageau treatment from last season. Give him every opportunity to produce (1st line, 1st PP) and hopefully by the trade deadline he’s one of the more productive centres available and we flip him at that point. Having Tierney front and centre also insulates Colin White and Logan Brown (hopefully 2020-2021 is the year he forces his way into the NHL) a little and takes pressure off them.

 

[Micklebot]

I like this idea but I think it is best suited at the 2021 or 2022 TDL.

I think we need him (unless we add a veteran Center). Moving CT would leave Arti as the only veteran Center to support Norris, 2020 1RD, Brown, Chaplik or White.

That is razor thin, especially if Brown and Norris get sent down.

There are a bunch of UFA centers that could be signed, some might even accept one year deals while others might be better players or good reclamation projects.

For example we could trade Tierney and make offers to Galchenyuk, RNH, Soderberg, Brassard, Craig Smith, and/or Spezza.

 

[Sweatred]

There are a bunch of UFA centers that could be signed, some might even accept one year deals while others might be better players or good reclamation projects.

For example we could trade Tierney and make offers to Galchenyuk, RNH, Soderberg, Brassard, Craig Smith, and/or Spezza.

Possible for sure. Maybe a lower cap and the threat of losing the game of musical chairs will make Ottberia and our CanadianTire (taxes) money more appealing.

 

[Micklebot]

Possible for sure. Maybe a lower cap and the threat of losing the game of musical chairs will make Ottberia and our CanadianTire (taxes) money more appealing.

Or we overpay, point is the option exists, we don't make mives in a vacuum.

The other appeal to Ottawa is a near guaranteed top 6 role. This would be particularly appealing for somebody who has seen their role reduced, like Galchenyuk or perhaps even RNH who would be our #1 but probably land as a #2 anywhere else.

 

[Sweatred]

Or we overpay, point is the option exists, we don't make mives in a vacuum.

The other appeal to Ottawa is a near guaranteed top 6 role. This would be particularly appealing for somebody who has seen their role reduced, like Galchenyuk or perhaps even RNH who would be our #1 but probably land as a #2 anywhere else.

I view the $3.5 it took Hainsey to come here as an indicator of the type of over payment needed to attract a FA to Ottawa. Hainsey also had a friendly coach factor. I’m not sure many teams give him $2.5+.

What is the shortest term you see RNH, Smith, or Gal taking ?

 

[Micklebot]

I view the $3.5 it took Hainsey to come here as an indicator of the type of over payment needed to attract a FA to Ottawa. Hainsey also had a friendly coach factor. I’m not sure many teams give him $2.5+.

What is the shortest term you see RNH, Smith, or Gal taking ?

I don't see those guys as short term options save maybe Galchenyuk whomight take the show me contract.

RNH probably wants 6 years min and he will get it imo. Smith probably wants 4 or 5 years but if the cap falls out from under these guys and options become limited you never know.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

What about swapping Tierney for Dzingel? Change of scenery move.

Dzingel makes 3.5M next year, Tierney should cost a similar amount on a 1 year deal through arbitration.

Dzingel has not done well in Carolina relative to what he was in Ottawa. He'll add some speed on the wing. Norris and Brown SHOULD graduate to the NHL next season, if they don't, there is a major problem. Add that to White, and Anisimov, and we should be fine down the middle without Tierney.

 

[MatchesMalone]

I just don't see why we'd trade Tierney yet. We need veteran centers while the prospects develop. We'll have a chance to showcase him as our number one center and possibly improve his value.