Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part VI

[Sweatred]

Duchene might be following Bobby Ryan's trajectory. He's 29 with 6 more years at 8M.

Both he and EK are approaching negative value one year into their x8 year deals.

 

[Boud]

Yeah, I would do it. I think the value is fairly good on both sides.

I really don't think it is.

Teams don't want to give up picks in the 12-17 range to ultimately acquire a player like Chris Tierney. I think the easiest way to look at it is that you're essentially adding too many pieces to a simple trade. Why would a team want to trade a first for a guy like Tierney and get back a 2nd, while they could very easily trade a 2nd for Tierney straight up. No team will give up a chance to a player like Holloway or even possibly Quinn, I'd be livid if I was a Jets fan and the team isn't a contender and then made that type of trade especially for a guy like Tierney that doesn't move the needle for them.

This is the type of trade that in a vacuum you could think the value is there but it's just not. I wouldn't trade the NYI pick for Jets 2nd and Tierney. (Moving back 15 spots or so) I would just offer a 2nd..

Also consider that you can very easily acquire Chris Tierney level replacements in UFA for similar salary to what Tierney will make or even lower salary. Someone like Derek Grant, Tyler Pitlick, Brad Richardson, Andree Copp, Chandler Stephenson, Derek Ryan all guys that are good defensively and can produce. Obviously most these guys havent had as much of a chance to play conpared to Tierney so their production is just a tad lower. Tierney plays over 17 minutes a game while these other guys play 14-15 but that"s essentially the group I would compare to Tierney. Bottom line he's not an impact player, you shouln't give up high value assets for him.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Pretty safe to assume Tierney was going to hit 40+ points this season. A 25 year old centre with three 40 point seasons in a row and one more year of cost control

It's amazing what guys here will give him away for

The geniuses on this board want to dump him and replace him with a 20 year old with virtually no experience. The argument being "why try to win?".

 

[dumbdick]

I really don't think it is.

Teams don't want to give up picks in the 12-17 range to ultimately acquire a player like Chris Tierney. I think the easiest way to look at it is that you're essentially adding too many pieces to a simple trade. Why would a team want to trade a first for a guy like Tierney and get back a 2nd, while they could very easily trade a 2nd for Tierney straight up. No team will give up a chance to a player like Holloway or even possibly Quinn, I'd be livid if I was a Jets fan and the team isn't a contender and then made that type of trade especially for a guy like Tierney that doesn't move the needle for them.

This is the type of trade that in a vacuum you could think the value is there but it's just not. I wouldn't trade the NYI pick for Jets 2nd and Tierney. (Moving back 15 spots or so) I would just offer a 2nd..

Here are a few 15OA players from 2011 to 2015. I just randomly chose these years.
Zachary Senyschen, Dylan Larkin, Cody Ceci, Ryan Pulock, J.T Miller

Tierney falls in the middle of that pile. Add the 33OA and the 78OA and I think you're in the ballpark.
Everyone is always trying to hit a homerun, but those homeruns are crazy far in between. Tierney isn't a homerun, but he's not out of his league next to 15OA picks.

 

[operasen]

I'd target another 1st if we can. Jets and Wild could be in play for Tierney plus. I really do not want to parlay the NYI 1st unless is for a move we really need to make to get an impact guy.
Jets - Tierney, LaJoie or similar, 46 - Tierney gives them the cost controlled C they need.
Wild - Duclair, Gustavsson or similar, 53 They want a goalie to develop. Duclair give finesse.
That type of idea.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Duchene might be following Bobby Ryan's trajectory. He's 29 with 6 more years at 8M.

I don't see Duchene remaining effective for the entirety of the contract. He plays a strong possession style, which leads to him taking a lot of abuse. I don't think he just fell off a cliff over night, but his first season in Nashville does raise some red flags.

I'm suspicious of him. At the time, I thought most of the Colorado reviews of him were sour grapes. Seeing him go to Nashville and fail to produce has made me skeptical. He played like a true number one center in Ottawa, but he was also playing on a bad team where all the offense went through him. He was bad in Columbus from the get go, but was good in the playoffs when everything clicked for them.

I wouldn't pull the trigger on a Duchene trade, but I also wouldn't be too upset if we got him for what New Jersey paid for Subban. That would basically equate to the DAL 2nd (53rd) and a 2021 2nd.

 

[Boud]

Here are a few 15OA players from 2011 to 2015. I just randomly chose these years.
Zachary Senyschen, Dylan Larkin, Cody Ceci, Ryan Pulock, J.T Miller

Tierney falls in the middle of that pile. Add the 33OA and the 78OA and I think you're in the ballpark.
Everyone is always trying to hit a homerun, but those homeruns are crazy far in between. Tierney isn't a homerun, but he's not out of his league next to 15OA picks.

That's not how it works though, teams don't go in and assume they will get a bad player in the 15 range. When teams pick players they obviously hope for the best. There are players picked in the top 10 that turn out poorly and there are good players picked in the later rounds. That doesn't mean I would give up that chance to pick at a significantly better spot.

You mention guys like Senyshyn and Ceci, in those drafts players like Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Hertl and Terravainen were picked right after. Ottawa at that time wouldn't have traded the 15th pick for Tierney like player and a 2nd rounder even if Ceci turned out poorly. And that doesn't change the fact that there is no need for a team to trade a 1rst for Tierney, it's adding pieces to a trade where it clearly benefits Ottawa and Winnipeg shouldn't be doing that trade.

As I also mentionned you look at a lot of guys around the league that can provide that value that will be available through FA. If I'm a GM I take a flyer on Derek Grant on a 1 or 2 year deal and keep my picks. The need for Winnipeg isn't there either to trade one of their best trade chips for an average 3rd line C (who currently plays 2nd line minutes), they need defensemen way more than Tierney. It would make a lot more sense for them to trade that pick and other assets on top for a top 4 D for example.

Bottom line is do I want this trade to happen as a Sens fan?! Absolutely because we could easily replace Tierney via FA and get a significantly better chance at an impact player. And that's also the reason Winnipeg wouldn't do it. All 3rd line players aren't created equal, guys like Pageau and Eller are impact players but Tierney is not in that group. He's a quiet player that puts up points. If it was me I wouldve kept Namestnikov and traded Tierney, similar production both can plays C and PK and Namestnikov is faster and more effective.

 

[dumbdick]

That's not how it works though, teams don't go in and assume they will get a bad player in the 15 range. When teams pick players they obviously hope for the best. There are players picked in the top 10 that turn out poorly and there are good players picked in the later rounds. That doesn't mean I would give up that chance to pick at a significantly better spot.

You mention guys like Senyshyn and Ceci, in those drafts players like Barzal, Connor, Chabot, Hertl and Terravainen were picked right after. Ottawa at that time wouldn't have traded the 15th pick for Tierney like player and a 2nd rounder even if Ceci turned out poorly. And that doesn't change the fact that there is no need for a team to trade a 1rst for Tierney, it's adding pieces to a trade where it clesrly benefits Ottawa and Winnipeg shouldn't be doing that trade.

As I also mentionned you look at a lot of guys around the league that can provide that value that will be available through FA.

I suggested it was fair value and I pulled some evidence to support that. The fact that GMs fancy themselves as riverboat gamblers doesn't factor into things.

 

[Boud]

I suggested it was fair value and I pulled some evidence to support that. The fact that GMs fancy themselves as riverboat gamblers doesn't factor into things.

Evidence doesn't support that though, at all. I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Besides the Senyshyn pick was a terrible pick and that was known at the draft. He was scheduled to go early 2nd round and Boston made that pick, Connor and Barzal being available and both clearly much much better players. I'm not sure how that's a fair assesment. All GMs are gamblers, and it does factor into things because if I trust my scouting staff and think I can get an impact player at 15 I will not give that up. Teams build through the draft so it makes absolutely no sense to say that GMs "gambling" doesn't factor into that. All picks are gambles, some picks are much better gambles than others. The game of hockey is a gamble, you sign players without knowing if they'll fit in, you pick players without knowing how they'll develop. That's the way sports are, it's all a gamble.

And also you haven't yet considered the fact that you can easily just sign this type of player without giving away any assets. Giving up a first for Tierney is terrible asset management, I'd be livid if the Sens made that type of deal. Winnipeg isn't contending either it's just a poor attempt to try and pry a 1rst rounder. Post that on the main boards and see the Jets fans reactions maybe you'll understand the logic behind it better.

Think about what you would want in return if you traded a 12-17 OA pick as a Sens fan. I do not picture Chris Tierney and I couldnt care less about the 2nd. Im a Sens fan and I trade a 12-17 overall pick we better damn well receive something better than Tierney. I'm not going through drafts and saying "oh well 10 years ago we drafted Ceci at 15 and he turned out poorly so yea let's make that deal".... Just like I'm not asking for Connor McDavid in return for the 15th overall pick because we picked Erik Karlsson at 15 some years ago..

 

[dumbdick]

Evidence doesn't support that though, at all. I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Besides the Senyshyn pick was a terrible pick and that was known at the draft. He was scheduled to go early 2nd round and Boston made that pick, Connor and Barzal being available and both clearly much much better players. I'm not sure how that's a fair assesment.

And also you haven't yet considered the fact that you can easily just sign this type of player without giving away any assets. Giving up a first for Tierney is terrible asset management, I'd be livid if the Sens made that type of deal. Winnipeg isn't contending either it's just a poor attempt to try and pry a 1rst rounder. Post that on the main boards and see the Jets fans reactions maybe you'll understand the logic behind it better

I took a small random sample of the picks at that position to show it's decent value. You're going down the "but this player was available" hindsight road.

"Prospect-minded fans of the other team disagree with it" doesn't generally hold a lot of water with me. Neither does the "just get a UFA" argument, since you can make a trade and still get that UFA too.

You're trying to be Babe Ruth (swing for the fences and strike out a lot). I'm trying to be Derek Jeter.
I've agreed that the trade is probably a bit tilted in the Sens favour (mostly because of contract situation and years of control) but the value is close.

 

[dumbdick]

Put another way, using our 10-20 picks since 2010

Which package would you prefer?

Brown + Ceci + Lazar + Chabot + Thomson

OR

Five Chris Tierney-quality roster player
+ Five 33OA picks
+ Five 78OA Picks
(FWIW, Kaliyev and Ghost were taken in these spots)

I get that GMs don't think "Man, I want to trade my first round pick for Tierney", but on average it might not be the worst strategy to make more of these deals.

 

[BondraTime]

I suggested it was fair value and I pulled some evidence to support that. The fact that GMs fancy themselves as riverboat gamblers doesn't factor into things.

That's not how that works.

 

[BondraTime]

Put another way, using our 10-20 picks since 2010

Which package would you prefer?

Brown + Ceci + Lazar + Chabot + Thomson

OR

Five Chris Tierney-quality roster player
+ Five 33OA picks
+ Five 78OA Picks
(FWIW, Kaliyev and Ghost were taken in these spots)

I get that GMs don't think "Man, I want to trade my first round pick for Tierney", but on average it might not be the worst strategy to make more of these deals.

It would be a terrible deal for the team trading the 1sts.

This is why these trades don’t happen.

Tierny isn’t a guy teams in that range are trading their 1st for.

I know as a Sens fan I’d be pretty disappointed if we traded our NYI pick for a guy like Tierny and lower picks, that’s for sure.

Why don’t you list the guys taken around our picks that with better scouting we could have taken? That’s why these picks are valued.

Ceci - Wilson/Teravinen/Hertl/Vasileski taken directly after.

Lazar - Mantha taken 3 spots later. Very bad draft.

Chabot - Hit gold

Brown - McAvoy/Chychrun/Fabbro taken in the few picks after.

Thomson - Draft was 8 months ago

These picks have value because of the number of very good players available at those spots. It’s up to the team to get them, but the reason they aren’t traded is they have a much, much, much higher % of finding quality players.

 

[Sweatred]

Here are a few 15OA players from 2011 to 2015. I just randomly chose these years.
Zachary Senyschen, Dylan Larkin, Cody Ceci, Ryan Pulock, J.T Miller

Tierney falls in the middle of that pile. Add the 33OA and the 78OA and I think you're in the ballpark.
Everyone is always trying to hit a homerun, but those homeruns are crazy far in between. Tierney isn't a homerun, but he's not out of his league next to 15OA picks.

The problem is you can replace CT’s value with a lucky find of the scrap heap. Players like C.Brown are generally available or Tyler Ennis at $1 mill and don’t cost a first rounder.

 

[JD1]

Evidence doesn't support that though, at all. I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion. Besides the Senyshyn pick was a terrible pick and that was known at the draft. He was scheduled to go early 2nd round and Boston made that pick, Connor and Barzal being available and both clearly much much better players. I'm not sure how that's a fair assesment. All GMs are gamblers, and it does factor into things because if I trust my scouting staff and think I can get an impact player at 15 I will not give that up. Teams build through the draft so it makes absolutely no sense to say that GMs "gambling" doesn't factor into that. All picks are gambles, some picks are much better gambles than others. The game of hockey is a gamble, you sign players without knowing if they'll fit in, you pick players without knowing how they'll develop. That's the way sports are, it's all a gamble.

And also you haven't yet considered the fact that you can easily just sign this type of player without giving away any assets. Giving up a first for Tierney is terrible asset management, I'd be livid if the Sens made that type of deal. Winnipeg isn't contending either it's just a poor attempt to try and pry a 1rst rounder. Post that on the main boards and see the Jets fans reactions maybe you'll understand the logic behind it better.

Think about what you would want in return if you traded a 12-17 OA pick as a Sens fan. I do not picture Chris Tierney and I couldnt care less about the 2nd. Im a Sens fan and I trade a 12-17 overall pick we better damn well receive something better than Tierney. I'm not going through drafts and saying "oh well 10 years ago we drafted Ceci at 15 and he turned out poorly so yea let's make that deal".... Just like I'm not asking for Connor McDavid in return for the 15th overall pick because we picked Erik Karlsson at 15 some years ago..

You could go by his draft year

Tierney is 11th in games played and 10th in points from his draft year

Just saying

 

[Boud]

You could go by his draft year

Tierney is 11th in games played and 10th in points from his draft year

Just saying

Alex Galchenyuk is 2nd in points from that draft and I wouldn't trade a 1rst for him nevermind a top 15, same for Tanner Pearson who's 5th in points.

Great for Chris Tierney, he turned out well for a 2nd rounder and he's an NHL player but that legitimately has nothing to do with the discussion.

 

[dumbdick]

Alex Galchenyuk is 2nd in points from that draft and I wouldn't trade a 1rst for him nevermind a top 15, same for Tanner Pearson who's 5th in points.

The trade proposed was 78th + Tierney to move up from 33 to about 15. It's not Tierney for a 1st straight up.

 

[dumbdick]

Derplicate

 

[Boud]

The trade proposed was 78th + Tierney to move up from 33 to about 15. It's not Tierney for a 1st straight up.

I know that. The point remains the same and I did mention in one of my first posts on this topic that the value in a VACUUM is probably close but that's not how it works. Teams trade 1rst rounders for impact players and quality pieces, not for guys that can be had for less.

It's like when I play NHL20 and package a bunch of shit like average players and picks so I can get the best assets and players. In real life that doesn't work generally speaking.

I wouldnt trade NYI pick (ex: 20OA) for a 2nd rounder (35 0A) and Derek Ryan would you?! And again you're really omitting the context here, being that Winnipeg is not a contender. Like not at all. They would never do that deal. Would you not rather use that 1rst rounder and other assets(if needed)to acquire a top 6 player or top 4 D that'll actually make an impact?! Because that's how teams think.

 

[dumbdick]

I know that. The point remains the same and I did mention in one of my first posts on this topic that the value in a VACUUM is probably close but that's not how it works. Teams trade 1rst rounders for impact players and quality pieces, not for guys that can be had for less.

It's like when I play NHL20 and package a bunch of shit like average players and picks so I can get the best assets and players. In real life that doesn't work generally speaking.

I wouldnt trade NYI pick (ex: 20OA) for a 2nd rounder (35 0A) and Derek Ryan would you?! And again you're really omitting the context here, being that Winnipeg is not a contender. Like not at all. They would never do that deal. Would you not rather use that 1rst rounder and other assets(if needed)to acquire a top 6 player or top 4 D that'll actually make an impact?! Because that's how teams think.

Ironically, you're basically describing the Karlsson trade, which Tierney was a big piece of and a lot of people have warmed up to.

 

[Sensung]

Tierney has limited value and isn't a peice teams covet. Add other picks or prospects to balance the deal.

The whole league knows CT is a whole lot of meh with inflated stats from playing on a garbage roster.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If Tierney was worth enough league wide to get us up from 78/33 to 15, I think he would have been dealt at the trade deadline. If I recall, his name was out there. Dorion today talked about how deep our org is at center. I don't think they would have worried about moving him. He'll be gone by the end of the 2021 season regardless, but I don't think he's worth enough to get us up to 15.

 

[dumbdick]

Tierney has limited value and isn't a peice teams covet. Add other picks or prospects to balance the deal.

The whole league knows CT is a whole lot of meh with inflated stats from playing on a garbage roster.

I wouldn't use such strong language but I generally agree.

I think Tierney is effective enough and gets his points, but I wouldn't go much further than that.

I think the trade value being discussed is roughly even, but that has less to do with Tierney being some special player and more to do with people overvaluing picks in general.

 

[DrSense]

Part of the reason Tierney isn't worth more is he is a RFA and unless you are prepared to give him a new contract with decent term, you are looking to lose him as a UFA in a year or so. And decent money with term means his value is less because you have to pay him more (i.e. multi year deal at $4M+). Obviously a team can go sign a UFA for $4M+ of perhaps comparable value and keep their draft pick. Trade value has a lot to do with years of control over player, and that doesn't exist with Tierney right now. If he still had 2-3 years left on a contract in the $2-3M range, then he'd be worth a heck of a lot more.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Tierney would be worth about a 2nd