Proposal: Trade Rumors/Proposals 2019-20 Part II

[JD1]

Fair point … An enormous factor in all of these deals is I simply don't want to go x8 with anyone of them so we could have received even less and I probably would still be OK with the trades. I think x8 years for Ottawa with 29 year old type players is a franchise death wish.

Franchise death wish on the 8 year deals...yes i agree with that... just my opinion but of the 3 Duchene is the one i would have signed

I think the 8 year UFA deals will come to be seen as death wishes for any franchise....the league cannot pay top dollar to UFAs and to post ELC stars....not enough cap hit to go around and it's going to be the UFAs that lose that discussion

 

[JD1]

I wish it was out of foresight rather than necessity, as I suspect.

I think it is a bit of both

More a case of a crippling contract having a lower threshold here than elsewhere

It actually seems to me like it was more a case of NMCs than dollars for Stone and Karlsson. If those deals go south, you need to move them but i can certainly see the players perspective of wanting the security

 

[Micklebot]

Franchise death wish on the 8 year deals...yes i agree with that... just my opinion but of the 3 Duchene is the one i would have signed

I think the 8 year UFA deals will come to be seen as death wishes for any franchise....the league cannot pay top dollar to UFAs and to post ELC stars....not enough cap hit to go around and it's going to be the UFAs that lose that discussion

It's Stone for me, but I think 8 year deals should be limited to players 24 and under, or one per team for players in that older category.

The problem as I see it is a 27 year old player is able to command the top possible in salary of his career; he is old enough to have a history of performing, and young enough for a team to talk themselves into believing he will be the exception that continues producing into his mid 30's.

The sharks have Vlasic (31), Couture (30), Karlsson (29), and Burns (32) all signed to 8 years (age at 1st year of contract in brackets). Add to that Kane (27) with a 7 year deal...

One or two of those deals you can deal with, you might get lucky and see the players perform through the entire contract, but 5 long contracts to players that have already reached the typical peak age, you're nearly guaranteed to see one or two of those deals crash and burn, and there goes 10-20% of your cap space.

 

[DJB]

Personally i think history might end up showing that the Karlsson trade was historically bad for DW.

We can go up and down the ladder with our opposing rationales and at the end of the day they are just opinions with neither clearly right or wrong at this point.

That said, the way things are trending, looking back in 5 years, i don't think that history will judge that trade kindly for DW.

Forward looking to those 5 years, there'll be guys in here screaming that there was no way what transpired could have been predicted and PD's success with that trade was simply luck.

I initially hated the Karlsson trade it seemed poor at the time .

Now? Not so much. It has less to do with he return than not being tied down to that Karlsson contract which is an albatross. Seriously it's horrible .

Karlsson isn't even half the player he used to be here in Ottawa and he's signed to huge money long term.

Not paying that Karlsson contract? A win for the Sens .

The return on him? To be determined but it looks very promising

 

[JD1]

I initially hated the Karlsson trade it seemed poor at the time .

Now? Not so much. It has less to do with he return than not being tied down to that Karlsson contract which is an albatross. Seriously it's horrible .

Karlsson isn't even half the player he used to be here in Ottawa and he's signed to huge money long term.

Not paying that Karlsson contract? A win for the Sens .

The return on him? To be determined but it looks very promising

Josh Norris is having a terrific first pro season, coming off missing half of last year. 5 years from now, i think he'll be an upper half 2C that can do everything well.

5 years from now i think the SJ 1st will be more for us than Norris.

DeMelo will end up giving us 5 solid years if we re-sign him. Tierney is pacing in the mid 40s point wise and is young and cost controlled still. And Balcers will be an NHL middle 6 winger. Who knows where these 3 will be 5 years from now but i think they'll either still be with us or assets acquired from moving them will be.

10 years from now we'll still be tracing the roots of the Karlsson trade

And there is a reasonable possibility 5 years from now that they've been referring to the Karlsson contract for a couple of years as an albatross contract

 

[danielpalfredsson]

The Karlsson trade is looking like one of the best pending UFA sell offs in the cap era.

That's with Karlsson still being a great player (I don't buy the hype of his demise yet).

It's probably third only to Matt Duchene from COL to OTT and Lucic from BOS to LAK, but Duchene technically had almost 2 years left so it really doesn't count as a UFA selloff like Hall/Karlsson/Lucic etc.

Keep in mind, that's judging the trade a year out after a lot has gone the Sens way. At the time the trade was made, it was a subpar return and Dorion had done a terrible job managing the Karlsson situation.

There's always two ways to judge a trade, what the pieces were worth at the time and how the pieces turned out as. It's why it would be silly to call Auld for a 6th rounder (Stone) the greatest trade in Sens history.

 

[HSF]

You guys are missing the point as to why a lot of fans were furious I think. Yes partly due to Karlsson being traded but I believe it has more to do with how it was managed by the team. From Melnyk down to Dorion.

It was clear that the 'sell off' plan was made very last min as Duchene was traded for (which we gave up a high pick) 4 months before we heard that trade options will be explored with Karlsson at the deadline. Then the fans showed backlash towards the team and we got Dorion coming out and saying that we will be offering Karlsson a contract. All this was just dishonest and left a bad taste in everyones mouth. Additionally. Hoffman was traded for a cap dump to again try to appease karlsson and the fans when the team had already decided that Karlsson was going to be traded (Hoffman could have been kept then traded later... It was clear Dorion took the Karlsson's side of the story from his press conference after Hoff was traded)

This to no surprise led us down a path were we were going to give up a very high pick (Karlsson carried this team and without him it wasn't going anywhere) Then the eventual trade of Stone (Why would he stay after watching Karlsson and Hoffman go out the door?) and then Duchene.

Fans were furious about the lack of management that was shown and value of players were also dropping due to poor oversight and foresight by the team management. Wasted assets and sabotaging the value of your own players.

 

[TheDebater]

It is to be expected that some fans on an internet message board will tend to be illogical, but what I have read in the last 3-4 pages of this thread is just ridiculous.

I will skip to my point however that it is ironic how the very same people who argue we did not get enough for Duchene (re: Hall trade vs Duchene to CBJ), are the same ones who argue we gave up too much to acquire him from Colorado. Then in turn, those same people will also accuse Dorion of not getting enough for Karlsson, even though that trade is looking better and better.

To be specific, had the 1st round pick to Colorado been around the 20th spot rather than 4th, then really that trade would have been pretty reasonable. But now that history has cemented that pick as the 4th overall, that trade will always be categorized as "bad" for Ottawa, good for Col.

Flip to Karlsson, and the San Jose trade is looking even better than what Colorado (at the time) got for Duchene, who by the way had term left on his contract, yet somehow this trade is also categorized as "bad" for Dorion too. If we end up drafting top 5 with that San Jose pick, will those who bashed the trade ever admit it was actually a good trade? Or is hindsight only allowed to be used when it favours our arguments (I.e, Colorado's pick ends up 4th instead of 15-20)?

 

[HSF]

To be specific, had the 1st round pick to Colorado been around the 20th spot rather than 4th, then really that trade would have been pretty reasonable. But now that history has cemented that pick as the 4th overall, that trade will always be categorized as "bad" for Ottawa, good for Col.

And this is where your argument falls apart. You are correct that if we gave up the 20th pick it wouldn't be bad. But we decided to trade our franchise player 3-4 months AFTER making that deal...What was expected to happen. That's just poor management. To think that a professional organization could go all in on a player like Duchene then 3 months later decide that they are not going to resign Karlsson.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

And this is where your argument falls apart. You are correct that if we gave up the 20th pick it wouldn't be bad. But we decided to trade our franchise player 3-4 months AFTER making that deal...What was expected to happen. That's just poor management. To think that a professional organization could go all in on a player like Duchene then 3 months later decide that they are not going to resign Karlsson.

That and the Hoffman trade which go together as well ... incomprehensible

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We also gave up Turris in the deal which would have surely netted a great deadline return with a 1st included or just taken the Nashville return. That is often an ignored aspect to that trade. This is essentially what we gave up in the deal if you're being honest about the trade.

Byram
Girard
Kamenev
Bowers
Hammond (Negative value)
NSH 2nd
OTT 3rd

HSF brings up a great point though. There was a chance to do what they did and still sell it. It all fell apart every time they tried to communicate things.

Never in my life of following pro sports have I seen a team botch PR the way the Senators did for a year or two there. It was a pretty clear indication of the quality and quantity of people working in the office for them. Nick R and PD giving the interviews they did probably did more damage than any one of the trades did.

"Remember fans, be excited that there's a cap floor we're required to meet."*

*This however does not prevent us from spending our summer focusing almost exclusively on circumventing said cap floor.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

We also gave up Turris in the deal which would have surely netted a great deadline return with a 1st included. That is often an ignored aspect to that trade.

HSF brings up a great point though. There was a chance to do what they did and still sell it. It all fell apart every time they tried to communicate things.

Never in my life of following pro sports have I seen a team botch PR the way the Senators did for a year or two there. It was a pretty clear indication of the quality and quantity of people working in the office for them. Nick R and PD giving the interviews they did probably did more damage than any one of the trades did.

"Remember fans, be excited that there's a cap floor we're required to meet."*

*This however does not prevent us from spending our summer focusing almost exclusively on circumventing said cap floor.

That is way too often ignored by those defending the trade. Adding a 1st for Turris in 2018 or 19 and having our higher 1st in 2019 and the rebuild looks a lot better planned

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

That is way too often ignored by those defending the trade. Adding a 1st for Turris in 2018 or 19 and having our higher 1st in 2019 and the rebuild looks a lot better planned

Yup. So many different routes were available with Turris that in hindsight make a heck of a lot more sense.

 

[BatherSeason]

(Why would he stay after watching Karlsson and Hoffman go out the door?

We were told that re-signing Mark Stone was a slam dunk since they traded the hated, selfish Erik Karlsson.

I think we even went as far as debating why someone (Stone) who hated another player (Karlsson) so much would be playing golf together in the middle of the summer and posting it to Instagram.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Yup. So many different routes were available with Turris that in hindsight make a heck of a lot more sense.

True and my problem with "the hindsight" thing goes back to HSF's point above about the all in for Duchene and 3 months later deciding to move on from Karlsson and rebuild. Was it like if we only knew what we know today regarding the team's finances and readiness to compete 3 months ago?

 

[armani]

That is way too often ignored by those defending the trade. Adding a 1st for Turris in 2018 or 19 and having our higher 1st in 2019 and the rebuild looks a lot better planned

The silver lining? This upcoming draft is much deeper with highly skilled and talented forwards than either of the last two. I won't be averse to obtaining a 2021 1st (deep in quality D prospects) + for JGP if bottom 2 finish seems safe this season (Tank Wings likely finishes last). I think a 30th place finish is very likely when the trading of UFA vets begin.

 

[Sweatred]

That is way too often ignored by those defending the trade. Adding a 1st for Turris in 2018 or 19 and having our higher 1st in 2019 and the rebuild looks a lot better planned

PD read the tea leaves perfectly on Turris. There is no guarantee that Turris gets a 1RD at the 2018 TDL and 0% chance get gets one in 2019 with that boat anchor he signed. We basically flipped LT for Bram and the chance that MD vs Turris could push us over a hump. It failed but inline, and likely a softer loss, than other trades that teams like Phoenix, Columbus, Vegas, SJ, have made to take a shot at the playoffs.

 

[stempniaksen]

Going from Turris/Zibanejad to Duchene/Brassard always felt like a team going half-in. I understand there were budget limitations at play, but it would have been nice to actually go all-in for a 2-3 year span if the team knew they were eventually going to walk away some of (it not all) the core (not saying that's what happened either, as I'm not prepared to give EM/PD any points for having foresight).

 

[TheDebater]

And this is where your argument falls apart. You are correct that if we gave up the 20th pick it wouldn't be bad. But we decided to trade our franchise player 3-4 months AFTER making that deal...What was expected to happen. That's just poor management. To think that a professional organization could go all in on a player like Duchene then 3 months later decide that they are not going to resign Karlsson.

That and the Hoffman trade which go together as well ... incomprehensible

The Duchene trade was in November, Karlsson was traded the following September, not sure how you came to that conclusion.

I will assume that you meant "decided" to trade Karlsson sometime in February that season, but again, the damage was done and it has nothing to do with that pick ending up 4th. We were a bad team and Karlsson was still here.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

True and my problem with "the hindsight" thing goes back to HSF's point above about the all in for Duchene and 3 months later deciding to move on from Karlsson and rebuild. Was it like if we only knew what we know today regarding the team's finances and readiness to compete 3 months ago?

I can't even begin to try to understand Dorion's thought process through that timeline. If he was doing what I think he was doing, then he was clearly way off base in assessing where the team was at.

PD read the tea leaves perfectly on Turris. There is no guarantee that Turris gets a 1RD at the 2018 TDL and 0% chance get gets one in 2019 with that boat anchor he signed. We basically flipped LT for Bram and the chance that MD vs Turris could push us over a hump. It failed but inline, and likely a softer loss, than other trades that teams like Phoenix, Columbus, Vegas, SJ, have made to take a shot at the playoffs.

We pretty much know what Turris' value was simply from the trade that was made. Girard, Kamenev & a 2nd or thereabouts is what Ottawa could have gotten for Turris.

Going from Turris/Zibanejad to Duchene/Brassard always felt like a team going half-in. I understand there were budget limitations at play, but it would have been nice to actually go all-in for a 2-3 year span if the team knew they were eventually going to walk away some of (it not all) the core (not saying that's what happened either, as I'm not prepared to give EM/PD any points for having foresight).

Yup, it was one step forward and one back, it was definitely not an "all in" scenario.

If Ceci and Phaneuf are your best healthy D, and Anderson and Condon are your goalies playing the way they were that year, you aren't going all in just by nature of those players playing in primary roles due to lack of better options.

 

[DJB]

Moving Turris and Duchene look like the right move. Both are declining with Turris just about done in the league if it weren't for his contract.

I can't forgive Dorion for the Stone deal though. Of all the guys we dealt he was the one guy we should have kept

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

Moving Turris and Duchene look like the right move. Both are declining with Turris just about done in the league if it weren't for his contract.

I can't forgive Dorion for the Stone deal though. Of all the guys we dealt he was the one guy we should have kept

I don’t blame Dorion for too many things because i think behind the scenes he isn’t given the resources to make the moves other GMs can.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I don’t blame Dorion for too many things because i think behind the scenes he isn’t given the resources to make the moves other GMs can.

He still makes the decisions on player transactions though.

For a GM, he is pretty active, so while he doesn't have a ton of resources, he has most definitely shuffled a lot and put his stamp on the team. He's identified the assets he's chosen to acquire or send away. He's chosen who and who not to fit in to his budget. Dorion should not be exonerated if this doesn't turn out, he should still be held accountable.

 

[DJB]

I don’t blame Dorion for too many things because i think behind the scenes he isn’t given the resources to make the moves other GMs can.

Melnyk pulls most of the strings. Everything Dorion does is financially related

 

[OD99]

He still makes the decisions on player transactions though.

For a GM, he is pretty active, so while he doesn't have a ton of resources, he has most definitely shuffled a lot and put his stamp on the team. He's identified the assets he's chosen to acquire or send away. He's chosen who and who not to fit in to his budget. Dorion should not be exonerated if this doesn't turn out, he should still be held accountable.

Agree BUT (and it took me a while to get here) he should be given proper recognition for trades that do work out, specifically the EK trade.

We can't simply say he got lucky that (while yet unproven in the NHL) Balcers and Norris seem like top 6 F and that DeMelo and CT are both doing very well in their expected spots in the line-up. Even the SJ pick can't be argued as lucky if they stay in the bottom of half of the league as he may have thought their aging core along with shaky goaltending was due to slip.

Even Duke - perhaps the pro scouts were quite high on him and despite CBJ being more than willing to move him he thought there was a lot more there (not 40 goal pace mind you) than it seemed.

I don't think he has been that good as GM so far but he is proving me wrong on a few items.